Sunday’s main slate provides a unique situation with considerations to be made. The Chicago White Sox and Boston Red Sox have a doubleheader coming their way — seven innings, only featured on DraftKings. Please keep this in mind when drafting lineups today. FanDuel has an eight-game slate, while DraftKings’ slate has eight games (plus seven innings) starting at 1:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
The top-four rated pitchers on Bales Model for both DraftKings and FanDuel:
- Gerrit Cole (R) $10,400 (DK) $11,000 (FD) NYY vs TB
- Shane Bieber (R) $10,000 (DK) $11,500 (FD) CLE @ CIN
- Freddy Peralta (R) $9,500 (DK) $8,500 (FD) MIL vs PIT
- Aaron Nola (R) $8,800 (DK) $8,500 (FD) PHI vs STL
Gerrit Cole has started the 2021 season extremely strong allowing only one run in his last 13 innings on the mound. This afternoon, Cole will be throwing to a team in the Tampa Bay Rays that ranks third worst in all of MLB with 153 strikeouts through their first 15 games. The Rays have done well against the Yankees this year winning four of the five head-to-head games; however, today’s projected outcome says otherwise. The wind is favorable for batters in this game as it is projected to be blowing out to center field, but that will only come into play if contact is made with the baseball. The -221 favorites Yankees will be looking for Cole to continue his great form.
Ted Williams once said, “The hardest thing to do in baseball is to hit a round baseball with a round bat, squarely.” I’m pretty sure he had Cleveland Indians pitcher Shane Bieber in mind when saying that. Bieber has struck out 35 batters in 21.1 innings to start the young 2021 season. Bieber will be pitching to the Cincinnati Reds this afternoon who lead all of baseball in runs scored (88), slugging percentage (.479) and home runs (23) through their first 14 games. Umpire Ben May will be behind the plate, and he is one of the most pitcher-friendly umps per pro trends.
A pitcher finally getting some national attention from the Milwaukee Brewers is Freddy Peralta. Peralta is a 24-year-old hard-throwing right-hander from the Dominican Republic. With 24 strikeouts in 13 innings pitched, Peralta will look to keep the Pittsburgh Pirates batters guessing. Similar to Gerrit Cole, he has only allowed one run in his last 13 innings. The Pittsburgh Pirates have the lowest projected implied runs total today, at 3.1 runs.
Aaron Nola is another high-priced pitching option worth taking a look at for Sunday’s main slate. While others may be higher owned, Nola is actually the highest-rated pitcher on FanDuel using Bales Model. Priced lower than his first three starts of the year, look for the Philadelphia Phillies pitcher to have a breakout game today.
Value Plays
Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Robbie Ray leads Bales Model with the highest projected points/salary on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Umpire D.J. Reyburn will be behind the plate this afternoon, and keep in mind he is another pitcher friendly ump.
Pablo Lopez will be looking to regain his confidence from his first two starts of the year where he allowed only five hits in 11.2 innings. Last time out against the Atlanta Braves he gave up six earned runs in only four innings pitched.
Finally, a pitcher worth considering from the Texas Rangers is Kyle Gibson. Gibson has been dominant recently allowing only one earned run in his last 13 innings pitched (I feel like I’ve heard that stat before…). This afternoon, he is throwing to the Baltimore Orioles who are averaging over double-digit strikeouts per game (10.3).
Hitters
Notable Stack
Today’s top stack comes to you from the -186 Washington Nationals:
- Trea Turner (R)
- Juan Soto (L)
- Josh Bell (S)
- Kyle Schwarber (L)
The Nationals will be facing former ace, Madison Bumgarner, from the Arizona Diamondbacks. Bumgarner has really struggled early in the 2021 season. The Diamondbacks lefty currently has an extremely high ERA of 11.20 and WHIP of 2.20. The Washington Nationals are projected to have the highest implied runs total on the entire slate, five runs. On FanDuel, this stack will cost you $14.2k in salary and are projected for a combined 50.5 fantasy points.
Other Hitters
The highest floor play not previously mentioned is Jose Ramirez. Ramirez struggled from a fantasy prospective early in the season but has done well recently. The Cleveland Indians slugger has two stolen bases in his last three games in addition to one home run.
DJ LeMahieu is a player worth considering as he is the second-highest rated player on Bales Model. LeMahieu is the leadoff batter for the New York Yankees, who have the second-highest projected runs total of 4.6.
Contrarian Approach
Looking at ownership numbers on Bales Model, the Miami Marlins offer great GPP value. Most Marlins players have a projected ownership of less than 10%, while their projected implied runs total is 4.3 runs. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is expected to be the highest owned player, but I recommend looking at power hitters Jesus Aguilar and Adam Duvall prior to pressing submit on your lineups today.
