Tuesday features an 11-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
There are some strong starting pitchers on this slate and Trevor Bauer sticks out among all of them. Bauer is second on the Bales Model on FanDuel this evening and first by a significant margin on DraftKings. There are a lot of games that are projected to be low-scoring tonight. The Colorado Rockies have an implied run total of 2.9, which is just laughably low.
As of this writing Bauer hits for seven ProTrends and the Los Angeles Dodgers are strong favorites at -312. Colorado has been a decent contact team thus far, tied with the Dodgers at sixth fewest strikeouts per game in the MLB, but there is the added benefit of pulling them away from Coors Field in this game. The Bales Model has Bauer at 7.59 strikeouts for tonight, which is the second highest total on the slate.
Bauer is an excellent play for tonight.
The pitching match-up of the evening is in Chicago with Shane Bieber versus Lucas Giolito.
This no doubt should be a classic pitchers’ duel, but it is so dead even it becomes hard to find value on the game. Both teams have the same exact implied run total at 3.5, and the game is a true pick ’em in Vegas with both teams at -104. The biggest difference between these two is price, with Giolito coming in well beneath Bieber.
That makes sense: Giolito is still earning some respect on his name, while Bieber is much more well-known at this point. I think you’re splitting hairs trying to pick either of these guys tonight. I’d try to find value elsewhere.
A play that might not be as popular, but could fit well into lineups is Brandon Woodruff.
Woodruff faces the Chicago Cubs, who have struggled mightily on offense so far this year. They have 2.9 runs per game and are bottom-third in the league in strikeouts per game. Playing for the Milwaukee Brewers, Woodruff may be even less of a known commodity than Giolito with the Chicago White Sox. He has strikeout stuff, with 10.6 K/9 in 2019 and 11.1 K/9 in 2020.
Last time out, against these Cubs, Woodruff went seven innings of no-run baseball with eight strikeouts. A concern I would have with him, is that he has thrown 78 and 74 pitches in his first two starts.
Has that just been situational or do the Brewers not wanting him throwing 90+ pitches an outing? I would lean toward the former.
The big value of the night, that is actually the No. 1 play on the Bales Model for FanDuel is Ryan Yarbrough.
He comes in at $6.200 on FanDuel, which is almost half the cost of Bauer. The problem with Yarbrough is that he finds it tough to last long in games. Between 2020 and his two starts in 2021, he has lasted six innings just four times. Only three of those were quality starts.
That along with lower strikeout potential limits his upside within daily fantasy.
He faces the Texas Rangers tonight, who just had 14 strikeouts against Tyler Glasnow last night. They have the second most strikeouts per game in the MLB, and have an implied run total of 3.6, which is exactly at their season average.
I look at Yarbrough as a bit contrarian tonight, most will lock in a name much higher on the salary list. If the Rangers look like they looked Monday night, he will find value.
Hitters
Notable Stack
- 1. Jose Altuve (R)
- 3. Alex Bregman (R)
- 2. Michael Brantley (L)
- 4. Yordan Alvarez (L)
This group is projected for 50.0 FanDuel points on a $15,100 salary. They face Matthew Boyd of the Detroit Tigers, who has looked much better than his 2020 version so far. The Houston Astros are implied for 5.2 runs, which is the second highest on the slate. Brantley is 5-for-16 off of Boyd lifetime.
Other Hitters
David Fletcher is one of the highest-rated hitters on the Bales Model, as he comes in at $2,600 on FanDuel. The Los Angeles Angels as a whole have liked hitting off of Danny Duffy. Mike Trout is 9-for-20 lifetime off of him, while Justin Upton is 8-for-19 with three home runs.
I wrote about him last time, but Bo Bichette just continues to be under-priced. He is a 94% Bargain Rating on the Bales Model tonight. He has at least one hit in every game this year, except on Opening Day, so he is very unlikely to post a zero for you. I love this ability to go to right-field, when needed.
The Dodgers were the second-best stack and the Lineup Optimizer loves Max Muncy tonight. Antonio Senzatela just seems to have a hard time pitching whether he is in Coors Field or not. He is not much of a strikeout pitcher, as he averages way below a strikeout an inning, and last year’s 3.44 ERA feels like an outlier. The Dodgers will become a very popular stack tonight.
If Andres Gimenez bats lead-off for the Cleveland Indians, it is hard not to put him in your lineup. The Bales Model has him at over 41% owned tonight because if he is hitting lead-off his salary of $2,200 is way too small. This seems to constantly happen for the Indians’ lead-off hitter or two-hole hitter, but it has to pay-off eventually right?
Pictured above: Trevor Bauer #27 of the Los Angeles Dodgers
Photo credit: Justin Edmonds/Getty Images
