Sunday’s main slate starts at 1:05 p.m. ET featuring 10 games in which we will try to cover as many DFS options as possible.
Pitchers
Bales Model projects the top-rated pitcher on FanDuel as Daniel Ponce de Leon of the St. Louis Cardinals (63.73). Daniel will be pitching against a Milwaukee Brewers team that ranks bottom five in both strikeouts (87) and batting average (.196) through their first eight games of the season. My main concerns are that Brewers’ bats seemed to wake up in yesterday’s game as they scored a season high nine runs, and there is a projected 18 mph wind blowing out to right field.
Matt Shoemaker is the top-rated pitcher looking at Bales Model on DraftKings (65). As the only pitcher above a 60 rating for DK, Shoemaker is a valuable option from his low price point of $6,900. Pitching against the Seattle Mariners, that have a projected implied runs total of 3.6, Shoemaker can almost be considered a lock to roster on DraftKings.
Next pitcher to discuss is Dylan Cease from the Chicago White Sox. With a projected rating of top three on Bales Model for both FanDuel and DraftKings, Cease will be pitching at home as a -132 favorite. First time out against the Los Angeles Angels, he struggled to find control of his pitches, walking three batters in 4.2 innings pitched. Cease will be looking to continue his home form of 2020 where he was 2-1 with a 3.24 ERA. The Kansas City Royals have taken the sixth fewest walks this year. If they continue to show this weakness, Cease will be a great DFS option to pick from.
The two games in which weather may be an issue are the Los Angeles Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays and Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets. Normally the Blue Jays play their games at Rogers Centre which has a retractable roof, however this year they are playing home games in Dunedin, Florida. With chance of precipitation at 83% and 74% respectively, I plan to avoid these games completely from a pitching stand point as all four starting pitchers rank very low on Bales Model.
Only eight games into the 2021 season, the Baltimore Orioles have already eclipsed the century mark in strikeouts (101). Nick Pivetta of the Boston Red Sox will look to take advantage of a team that averages over 12 strikeouts per game.
If Brett Anderson can keep the ball in the yard today, he presents great value as he is only $6,500 DK and $6,200 FD. Anderson gave up three home runs in his first start of the campaign against the Chicago Cubs, but he will be looking to make amends today. A projected 18 mph wind out to right field might not help him this afternoon.
Brent Honeywell Jr. is the probable opener for the Tampa Bay Rays, while Michael Wacha is the projected long reliever. I really don’t see either being great options today, unless you want to play extremely contrarian.
Jordan Montgomery is the top priced pitching option on DraftKings at $9,900. He had a strong start to the season against the Baltimore Orioles, allowing only four hits in six innings, while striking out seven batters. My concern is that he only threw 73 pitches in his first start.
Chicago Cubs pitcher Trevor Williams looked like a Cy Young worthy pitcher in his first start of 2021. Williams did allow two baserunners to open the seventh inning before being pulled, which led to a three-run homer. Williams was charged with two of those earned runs, however he still managed 22.5 and 40 fantasy points on DraftKings and FanDuel respectively. Today he will be facing the Pittsburgh Pirates. His price did raise by $1,900 on FD, but no change on DK ($8,300).
Pirates’ pitcher JT Brubaker will be throwing against the team with the worst batting average in all of baseball after eight games: the Chicago Cubs (.168). The Cubs’ projected lineup is stacked with power hitters, but their bats seem to be far from mid-season form.
Hitters
Notable Stack
Today’s top stack comes to you from the -121 Los Angeles Angels:
- David Fletcher (R)
- Shohei Ohtani (L)
- Mike Trout (R)
- Anthony Rendon (R)
As previously mentioned, weather is a big concern in this afternoon game against the Toronto Blue Jays. Forecasts are currently showing a likelihood of 100% humidity and 83% precipitation, so please be aware of the risk involved. The Angels will have Tanner Roark pitching to them who was far from stellar in his first start. The implied runs total of 5.5 runs is one of the highest projected totals on the entire slate. On FanDuel, this stack will cost you $14.1k in salary and is projected for a combined 52 fantasy points.
Another stack to consider in which weather should not be a factor is from the -170 Cleveland Indians:
- Andres Gimenez (L)
- Cesar Hernandez (S)
- Jose Ramirez (S)
- Eddie Rosario (L)
A 10 mph wind blowing out to right field is highly favorable for these pull hitters. The Indians will be going up to bat against Jose Urena from the Detroit Tigers who gave up six runs, five earned, with four walks in only three innings. Similar to the Angels, the implied runs total of 5.5 runs is one of the highest projected totals on the entire slate. On DraftKings, this stack will cost you $18.1k in salary and is projected for a combined 37.8 fantasy points using Bales Model.
Other Hitters
Bales Model projects that the highest-rated play of the slate is Trent Grisham of the San Diego Padres. Grisham has only played in two games this young season but still boasts a batting average of .500 with one homerun in nine plate appearances. Going to bat against right-handed pitcher Mike Foltynewicz makes for a favorable matchup for Grisham, as Foltynewicz allowed seven base runners, while only pitching four innings. The Padres are off to a hot start this season and are looking to complete the sweep against the Texas Rangers.
The highest-rated floor play not previously mentioned is Luis Arraez from the Minnesota Twins. The Twins are the biggest favorites on today’s slate, and leadoff man Arraez should be heavily involved. The second baseman is more of a value play on FanDuel priced at $2,900 but look to have him in your lineup on both DFS sites as he is $4.900 on DraftKings.
I’ll keep the rest of this short and sweet – don’t forget to take a look at these guys before completing your lineups today!
FanDuel:
OF DJ Stewart (L) BAL vs BOS $2,000
1B Rowdy Tellez (L) TOR vs LAA $2,100
2B/3B Mike Brosseau (R) TB vs NYY $2,100
OF Joc Pederson (L) CHC @ PIT $2,300
OF Alex Verdugo (L) BOS @ BAL $2,700
DraftKings:
OF Nelson Cruz (R) MIN vs SEA $5,800
1B/OF Jurickson Profar (S) SD @ TEX $3,200
2B/SS Niko Goodrum (S) DET @ CLE $2,800
OF Robbie Grossman (S) DET @ CLE $2,800
OF Dustin Fowler (L) PIT vs CHC $2,300
