The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a nine-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook’s salary continues to get more expensive, but he’s simply playing too well right now to ignore. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +9.49 over his past 10 games, and he’s scored at least 58.5 DraftKings points in seven of those contests. Overall, he’s increased his production to 1.68 DraftKings per minute over the past month.
There’s also a chance he could be without Bradley Beal once again. Beal is currently listed as questionable after missing the past five games. He will likely be limited even if he does suit up on Wednesday, so expect another heavy dose of Westbrook vs. the Magic.
Value
Injuries are going to be a huge factor on today’s slate, particularly at the point guard position. There are some big names that are currently listed as questionable, including Jamal Murray, Dejounte Murray, and Malcolm Brogdon. Any of those players being ruled out would create some value, which is tough to find on the slate currently. Make sure to utilize the Labs Insiders tool for any updates on those situations.
Kemba Walker is one player who we know for sure won’t be available today. He will rest on the second leg of a back-to-back, and Evan Fournier also remains out of the lineup due to health and safety protocols. That means Marcus Smart should see as many minutes as he can handle. He played 36.5 minutes yesterday vs. the 76ers, and that was with Walker in the lineup. He struggled in that contest, finishing with just 21.25 DraftKings points, but Smart has averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Fast Break
Luka Doncic should carry lower ownership than usual on today’s slate, and he’s also much more affordable than usual on FanDuel. He’s been priced down to just $10,300, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 82%, and Doncic has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.04 with a comparable salary (per the Trends tool).
Terry Rozier leads the position with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $7,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 87%. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his past eight games, and he should continue to benefit from the absence of Gordon Hayward.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Kyrie Irving is very pricy at $10,200 on DraftKings, but there’s a lot to like about him on today’s slate. James Harden has been shut down for the next 10 days, which means Irving should serve as the Nets’ primary ballhandler. Kevin Durant will make his return to the lineup on Wednesday, but he will almost certainly be limited after missing the past 23 games. That means Irving should see plenty of minutes without Harden or Durant on the court vs. the Pelicans, and he’s averaged 1.47 DraftKings points per minute in that situation this season.
The Pelicans also represent an outstanding matchup. They rank just 28th in defensive efficiency, and the Nets’ implied team total of 120.5 is the top mark on the slate.
Value
Jeremy Lamb is coming off 38.5 DraftKings points in his last game, but that performance was a little fluky. He finished with six steals and one block, which added 14.0 DraftKings points to his offensive output. Still, that means he scored 24.5 DraftKings points without the benefit of those defensive stats despite shooting just 4-of-12 from the field. He has the potential for another strong performance vs. the Timberwolves, especially if Brogdon, Domantas Sabonis, and Myles Turner are unable to suit up.
Fast Break
Svi Mykhailiuk stands out as one of the best pure values of the day on FanDuel, where his $3,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 88%. He’s increased his fantasy production to 0.85 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s currently projected for 30.4 minutes in our NBA Models. Mykhailiuk is coming off 34.6 FanDuel points in his last outing, so he clearly has the ability to destroy this price tag.
Devonte’ Graham is another member of the Hornets worth considering on Wednesday, particularly on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 78%. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.39 vs. the Thunder, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.06 over his past 10 games.
Small Forward
Stud
Jaylen Brown is tough to pass up on Wednesday’s slate. Not only are the Celtics going to be shorthanded, but Brown is also very reasonably priced at $7,700 on FanDuel. He’s historically posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.34 with a comparable price tag, so this seems like a prime buy-low spot. His nine Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position.
Value
Small forward seems like a great position to pay down at today. Miles Bridges is priced very reasonably at $5,000 on DraftKings, but he has the potential to deliver a stud-like performance. He should continue to start with Hayward out of the lineup, and he’s played at least 30.7 minutes in back-to-back games. Bridges has averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute this season, and the Thunder rank just 22nd in defensive efficiency. He’s one of the best values of the day.
Fast Break
It never feels good to roster Tony Snell. He’s about as boring as it gets in fantasy, and he’s averaged a paltry 0.56 DraftKings points per minute this season. That said, he should be able to return value vs. the Grizzlies through sheer volume. He’s currently projected for 29.0 minutes in our NBA Models, and that’s a ton of playing time for someone who costs just $3,200.
Doug McDermott could be looking at another expanded workload today depending on the Pacers’ injury situation. He didn’t exactly thrive in that situation on Monday – he finished with just 18.5 DraftKings points over 23.8 minutes – but he was just 4-of-12 from the field. He could see a few additional minutes if Sabonis and/or Turner are out once again, and he’s averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
Power Forward
Stud
Jayson Tatum stands out on Wednesday for many of the same reasons as Brown. He’s not quite as affordable, but his salary did decrease by $400 after his last game. He’s also been the superior fantasy producer this season, averaging 1.20 FanDuel points per minute.
Value
Naz Reid makes some sense as a punt play at just $3,800 on DraftKings. He’s playing more minutes for the Timberwolves recently, logging between 17.5 and 22.8 minutes in each of his past three games. While that isn’t a ton of minutes, Reid has averaged a strong 1.12 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s currently projected for 18.1 minutes in our NBA Models, and that should be more than enough for him to return value.
Fast Break
It’s tough to get a good feel for the Pacers at this point since we’re still not sure who’s going to play for them. That said, Sabonis would be an interesting option if he suits up. Turner seems like the more likely option to sit after getting hurt during their last game, which means Sabonis could be looking at a large workload if he’s active. He’s averaged 1.33 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s cheaper than usual at just $8,900.
P.J. Washington is yet another member of the Hornets who seems underpriced on FanDuel. His $5,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%, and his salary has decreased by $1,300 over his past 10 games. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past eight games, so he’s definitely appealing at a lower price tag.
Center
Stud
Karl-Anthony Towns has been balling recently. He missed most of the early season due to injuries and COVID-19, and he played limited minutes when he returned to the lineup. However, the team has lifted that minute restriction lately, and Towns has responded with a positive Plus/Minus in 10 of his past 12 games.
He has the potential to be in one of the best spots of the day vs. the Pacers. If Sabonis and Turner are ruled out, it would leave just Goga Bitadze to try and guard him on the defensive end of the court. That will not end well for Bitadze.
Value
I love Towns on tonight’s slate, but center looks like a great place to find some much-needed value on DraftKings. Wendell Carter Jr. has been excellent since joining the Magic, averaging 1.16 DraftKings per minute, and he could see a few additional minutes with Otto Porter out of the lineup. He’s also in a dream matchup vs. the Wizards – they rank first in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency – and his $6,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Fast Break
The Hayward injury has also had a nice impact on the Hornets’ centers. Bismack Biyombo is someone who should play at least 20 minutes on today’s slate, which makes him a nice value at essentially a minimum salary.
Nikola Jokic has been a bit quiet recently, although he did rack up 58.1 FanDuel points over just 26.8 minutes yesterday. That performance came with Murray out of the lineup, and Jokic would be an elite option if he’s ruled out once again. He is significantly cheaper than usual at $10,200 on FanDuel, and he leads all centers with 11 Pro Trends.
Photo Credit: Al Bello/Getty Images
Pictured: Kyrie Irving
