The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday’s schedule features an eight-game slate, starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
The Atlanta Hawks get one of the best matchups of the day against the New Orleans Pelicans. They rank just 28th in defensive efficiency, and the Hawks’ resulting implied team total of 116.0 ranks third on the slate. Trae Young is someone who should thrive in particular. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.55 on FanDuel, where his $8,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 82 percent.
Value
The Pacers’ injury situation is going to be important to monitor heading into lineup lock. Malcolm Brogdon, Domantas Sabonis, and Jeremy Lamb are all listed as questionable. Lamb and Brogdon were both able to practice Monday, while Sabonis was not. Make sure to utilize the Labs Insiders tool for any updates on their status.
If Brogdon is unable to suit up, T.J. McConnell becomes one of the strongest values. He’s averaged a strong 1.00 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he could see well over 30 minutes in that situation. He still deserves some consideration if Brogdon is able to play. McConnell is currently projected for 26.3 minutes in our NBA Models even with Brogdon tentatively expected to play, which should be enough to pay off his $5,300 salary.
Fast Break
Ben Simmons stands out on FanDuel, where his $7,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 87 percent. That’s a very cheap price tag for Simmons, who has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.56 with a comparable salary (per the Trends tool). He’s only been priced below $7,500 three times in his career, so this is a pretty unprecedented discount for him.
It’s Killian Hayes season in Detroit. The talented rookie was selected with the No. 7 pick in the 2020 NBA Draft, and he’s coming off 34.25 DraftKings points over 25.1 minutes on Monday. There is some chance that he rests on the second leg of a back-to-back – he’s only played two games since returning from a lengthy injury absence – but he’s a steal at the absolute minimum on DraftKings if he’s active.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Zach LaVine has struggled recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of -3.62 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. That’s caused his price to plummet by -$2,200 over that time frame, which makes him an interesting buy-low target on today’s slate. LaVine has averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.09 with a comparable salary as a member of the Bulls, and he’s increased that figure to +4.71 this season. He also leads the position with eight Pro Trends.
Value
Josh Jackson wasn’t really needed in the Pistons’ 132-108 win over the Oklahoma City Thunder on Monday, but he still finished with 24.0 FanDuel points over 19.8 minutes. He should return to his normal workload if the game is more competitive — he’s currently projected for 26.5 minutes in our NBA Models — and he’s averaged 0.98 FanDuel points per minute this season. That makes him too cheap on FanDuel, where his $4,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 82 percent.
Fast Break
Paul George stands out as the best pure value at the position on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $8,100, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 92%, and he has the potential for a big performance against the Portland Trail Blazers. They rank 29th in defensive efficiency this season, and the Clippers’ implied team total of 117.25 ranks second on the slate.
Evan Fournier will miss his second consecutive game due to health and safety protocols, which could result in a few additional minutes for Marcus Smart. He’s currently projected for 34 minutes against the Philadelphia 76ers, and he appears underpriced across the industry.
Small Forward
Stud
Jaylen Brown is another member of the Boston Celtics, who could see a boost sans Fournier. He’s in a tough spot against the Philadelphia 76ers (they rank second in the league in defensive efficiency), but Brown still leads the position with eight Pro Trends on FanDuel. He’s also a bit cheaper than usual at $7,700, and Brown has averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.79 with a comparable price tag. He shouldn’t command a ton of ownership, but there’s a lot to like about Brown on the slate.
Value
DeAndre’ Bembry is priced at the absolute minimum on DraftKings, which makes him a free square on the card. The Raptors will be without Fred VanVleet, Kyle Lowry, and Rodney Hood for the second consecutive game, which means Bembry should operate as their primary playmaker. Bembry thrived in that role Monday, finishing with 35.25 DraftKings points over 30.1 minutes. His current matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers is significantly tougher, but he still seems like a lock for 18+ DraftKings points with the upside for much more. It’s hard to pass up that kind of value.
Fast Break
Doug McDermott is another nice potential source of value. He would likely draw the start if Sabonis is unable to suit up, and he’s currently projected for 30.0 minutes in our NBA Models. McDermott has increased his production to 0.93 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he can do some damage with a few extra minutes.
Kyle Kuzma is coming off a dreadful performance in his last game, finishing with just 18.25 DraftKings points over 33.1 minutes vs. the Clippers. That’s caused his price tag to decrease by -$600 for tonight’s matchup vs. the Raptors, and he’s an excellent buy-low target. Kuzma has averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute in nine games without LeBron James and Anthony Davis this season, and he’s averaged 35 minutes per game in those contests.
Power Forward
Stud
There are plenty of values to choose from on the schedule, but the pickings are a lot slimmer in the stud category. Might I be able to interest you in Giannis Antetokounmpo? He got the night off in the Milwaukee Bucks’ last game, but he finished with 72.5 DraftKings points the last time he suited up. He remains arguably the best producer in fantasy on a per-minute basis, averaging 1.69 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he takes the floor in an excellent spot vs. the Warriors. The Warriors have played at the second-fastest pace this season, and the Bucks’ implied team total of 122.0 is the top mark on the slate.
Value
Isaiah Stewart has had some impressive moments for the Pistons this season, and he should see more playing time down the stretch. He’s currently projected for 28.2 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 1.00 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. That combination makes him very appealing at just $3,700 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Pascal Siakam disappointed Monday against the Washington Wizards, finishing with just 37.25 DraftKings points over 36.1 minutes, but he still figures to see a boost in value for the shorthanded Raptors. He’s averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute with VanVleet, Lowry, Hood, and Norman Powell off the court this season, which represents a solid increase from his season average of 1.13. He should check in with lower ownership after burning a lot of people on Monday, which makes him a nice bounce-back option in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Jerami Grant’s price tag continues to decrease on FanDuel. He’s down to just $6,400 for the matchup against the Denver Nuggets, which technically qualifies as a #RevengeGame. His playing time has waned, as the Pistons have looked to get more minutes for their younger players, but he’s still projected for 32.4 minutes on the slate. He’s averaged 1.02 FanDuel points per minute this season, so that should be enough for him to return value.
Center
Stud
You can easily jam two studs into your lineups, and pairing Giannis with a stud center seems like a nice approach. Nikola Jokic has cooled off a bit recently after a torrid first half of the year, and he’s finished with a negative Plus/Minus in four of his past six games on DraftKings. That said, he did bounce back with 53.75 DraftKings points in his last outing, and he’s in an excellent spot against the Detroit Pistons. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.78 on FanDuel, which is one of the top marks at the position. Overall, Jokic is simply too talented to continue to struggle forever, and this seems like as good a spot as any for a monster performance.
Value
Goga Bitadze is yet another minimum-priced player you can consider on DraftKings. He’s only in play if Sabonis is ruled out, but he should see a handful of minutes in that situation. He’s averaged a stout 1.30 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he’s capable of racking up fantasy points quickly.
Fast Break
Chris Boucher continues to stand out as underpriced on FanDuel. His $5,600 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 72%, and he should see a few additional minutes given the Raptors’ current injury situation. Boucher has averaged 1.26 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to pay off his salary.
