The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday’s slate features four games, scheduled to start at 7 p.m. ET.
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Point Guard
Stud
Steph Curry is not listed on Golden State’s injury report ahead of their matchup against Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks. Curry pops as a top option on FanDuel and DraftKings, according to the FantasyLabs NBA Model. Curry and Young are the only two point guards projected to score 40-plus fantasy points, and have Usage Rates topping 30 percent. The Warriors-Hawks game has the highest game total projection at 225.5 points.
Kevin Porter Jr. tops DraftKings as the best point guard to play, priced affordably at $6,900. He and teammate D.J. Augustin have top three matchups, according to Opponent Plus/Minus. These positive projections are due to John Wall’s absence from the lineup for the struggling Houston Rockets. Wall is a shutdown candidate as Houston continues to fade.
Get the latest injury news and roster notes using the Labs Insiders Tool.
Value
Aside from Augustin, R.J. Hampton could be in for another larger workload if Michael Carter-Williams is out for Orlando. Carter-Williams (illness) missed Saturday’s game and isn’t a lock to play. Hampton is in a revenge spot against the team that drafted him — the Denver Nuggets. The rookie has Leverage Scores above 80 percent on both sites.
Fast Break
Nickeil Alexander-Walker is priced to fade on DraftKings, which is good news for sharp DFS players. NAW is coming off his worst performance in a while and will be passed over for Porter Jr. in the same price range or one of the studs playing on a short slate. Lonzo Ball is questionable for New Orleans along with multiple other teammates, so keep an eye on that ahead of lock.
Ball’s injury has been good news for Eric Bledsoe. His season has been ugly in terms of fantasy, but he has produced at least 23 FanDuel points in three straight games and is only $5,800. He is also projected to have half the ownership of the top point guards and pairs well with them since FanDuel requires two point guards in lineups.
Shooting Guard
Stud
It is an easy day to pay down at shooting guard. Sterling Brown is in line for more work as Houston continues to look towards the future, while Dillon Brooks has been a shooting machine for Memphis. He has eight consecutive games with double-digit points and attempted double-digit shots in 14 of 15 March contests. Tough to ignore that many shot attempts for less than $5,500 on both sites.
Value
Avery Bradley has seen his minutes and production increase in his three games with Houston. Until the Rockets go into a full youth movement, he provides value, especially at $3,700 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Andrew Wiggins has been excellent for Golden State with Curry battling his tailbone injury. There is volatility with rostering him as the top-priced two on the slate, but there is no question that he is being counted on to score. It is also important to note that Atlanta has little in the way of defense among their shooting guards and small forwards at the moment.
Bogdan Bogdanovic has had at least 22 points, four rebounds, five assists and a steal in each of his past three games. That type of stat sheet stuffing is difficult to pass on even as Bogdanovic’s price increases on a small slate.
Small Forward
Stud
Kevin Porter Jr. is a small forward on FanDuel and is priced to play. He is the top overall play there and has the best Projected Plus/Minus.
Kelly Oubre is as inconsistent as it gets, but gets a juicy matchup against Atlanta and their poor wing defense.
Value
Danilo Gallinari is questionable with an Achilles injury and might be on a minutes restriction, but he has been one of Atlanta’s best scorers this month and is only $4,900 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Brandon Ingram is a game-time decision for New Orleans. He leads the position with eight Pro Trends on FanDuel.
The arrival of Aaron Gordon has not slowed Michael Porter Jr. He has a 94% Leverage Score on both sites and is a 72% bargain on FanDuel.
Power Forward
Stud
I would love for Zion Williamson to be available, so Christian Wood and Tobias Harris could see any drop in their ownership. Both are plays regardless and lead power forwards in Bargain rating on FanDuel, with Wood leading the position in Pro Trends. Wood is a center on DraftKings, making Harris my favorite power forward there despite rating below many of the top players. He also is projected to have lower ownership than Williamson and a questionable Draymond Green.
Value
Kelly Olynyk has dual eligibility at power forward and center and a Williamson-less New Orleans could mean a three-point attempt fest for Olynyk. He has attempted at least two shots from deep over his past four games and has double-digit points in each of those games.
If Williamson is out, James Johnson is going to be rostered at his affordable price.
Fast Break
Chuma Okeke is playing encouraging ball since the trade deadline and could put himself in my DFS pool for the foreseeable future with a strong performance against Denver. He makes for an excellent pivot off a solid power forward group today with projected ownership between 5-8 percent.
Philadelphia is not as strong with Joel Embiid in the frontcourt and could be without him in the second of a back-to-back. Brandon Clarke can fill the stat sheet and is a last man in candidate as a player who can score 25 fantasy points without being spectacular.
Center
Stud
Clint Capela is a poor defender and Draymond Green may be asked to guard him on the other end of the court. The two are top plays on FanDuel and DraftKings, respectively.
Nikola Jokic swallowed Wendell Carter Jr. alive when he saw him twice as a member of the Bulls this season. Carter has been aggressive in his handful of games with Orlando but is a fade against the MVP candidate.
Value
Steven Adams against the Rockets is my value target, especially if Williamson and Ingram sit out. The defensive attention would fall on Alexander-Walker and Bledsoe before Adams. Teammate Jaxson Hayes is also intriguing if New Orleans is shorthanded.
Fast Break
Jonas Valanciunas would conceivably have a good matchup against the 76ers if Embiid is out, but Dwight Howard has been good when asked to take on a larger role. Valanciunas would still be a nice play as a cheaper option, but I would lower my expectations to 30 or less fantasy points.
I want to like James Wiseman. His rebounding floor is too low to get excited about especially with Clint Capela excelling at grabbing boards. Wiseman is tied with Adams as the second best bargain at center on FanDuel.
