The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a 10-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
This doesn’t feel like a night where you need to pay up at point guard, but I wouldn’t fight too hard if you wanted to go with Luka Doncic. He possesses one of the highest ceilings in fantasy every time he takes the floor, and his $10,700 salary is reasonable. He’s historically owned a comparable salary on 63 previous occasions, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.41 in those contests (per the Trends tool).
That said, his matchup vs. the Knicks is far from ideal. They rank fourth in defensive efficiency and tied for 27th in pace, which is not a good combination from a fantasy perspective.
Value
The Pelicans are playing on the second leg of a back-to-back, and they were without Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, and Lonzo Ball yesterday. They’re going to be even more shorthanded for tonight’s matchup vs. the Hawks. Not only have those three players been ruled out once again, but Josh Hart will join them on the sidelines. Hart played a whopping 46.8 minutes yesterday, so that opens up even more playing time for the rest of the roster.
That makes it nearly impossible to pass up on Eric Bledsoe. He played nearly 46 minutes in yesterday’s overtime loss to the Magic, and he ultimately finished with 36.75 DraftKings points.
Kira Lewis is another option for the Pelicans. He’s priced near the minimum across the industry, and he finished with 24.75 DraftKings points over 32.6 minutes yesterday.
Fast Break
Ja Morant stands out as one of the best pure values at the position on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $6,800, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 85%, and he’s in a nice spot vs. the Timberwolves. They’ve struggled defensively this season, giving Morant an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.74.
The best matchup at the position belongs to Chris Paul, who owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.39 on FanDuel. CP3 has been a nice source of value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.94 over his past 10 games, yet his salary has actually decreased by -$800 from its peak. There is some blowout concern vs. the Thunder, but Paul should be able to return value in around 30 minutes of playing time.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Fred VanVleet has carried an insane workload for the Raptors recently, and that isn’t likely to change vs. the Warriors. He’s logged at least 37.5 minutes in six of his past eight games, and Kyle Lowry is expected to miss at least a week with a foot injury. VanVleet has averaged 37.7 minutes per game in nine games without Lowry this season, and he’s seen a team-high usage bump of +3.5% with Lowry off the court. He’s an extremely safe option vs. the Warriors, particularly on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 85%.
Value
Nickeil Alexander-Walker is a bit more expensive than the typical “value” option, but he’s simply too cheap given all the Pelicans’ injuries. He served as the Pelicans’ top offensive option yesterday, finishing with 31 points on 24 shot attempts. He ultimately racked up 49.0 DraftKings points, and he’s averaged 1.28 DraftKings points per minute with Zion, Ball, and Ingram off the court this season.
Fast Break
The Celtics stand out as a nice team to target on Friday. Their implied team total of 117.25 ranks fifth on the slate, and they’re still a bit shorthanded with Tristan Thompson out of the lineup. Marcus Smart is currently projected for 34.0 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 0.90 FanDuel points per minute this season. That should be enough playing time to pay off his $5,700 salary.
The Thunder are clearly tanking playing for the future at this point, so expect Svi Mykhailiuk to continue to carry a large workload. He’s coming off 34.8 FanDuel points over 35.3 minutes in his last outing, which makes him way too cheap at $3,700.
Small Forward
Stud
$7,200 is definitely expensive for Kyle Kuzma – that’s what he’s going to run you today on DraftKings – but he has a lot working in his favor on Friday. For starters, LeBron James and Anthony Davis both remain out of the lineup, and the newly acquired Andre Drummond will also be forced to miss tonight’s contest. Kuzma’s matchup vs. the Kings is also about as good as it gets. They rank dead-last in terms of defensive efficiency, so the Lakers should be able to put some points on the scoreboard.
Value
Justin Holiday continues to stand out as a nice value on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $3,800, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 75%, and he’s currently projected for 29.8 minutes in our NBA Models. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.19 on FanDuel. Holiday isn’t the sexiest option on a slate with plenty of value, but he should get the job done.
Fast Break
Malik Beasley is back for the Timberwolves, and he should provide some fantasy value Friday vs. the Grizzlies. He’s averaged 0.93 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he’s served as one of the Timberwolves’ primary offensive options with D’Angelo Russell sidelined. His minutes have been monitored since returning to the lineup, but he did play 32 minutes in his last game. Expect him to take another step forward vs. the Grizzlies.
Gordon Hayward is another nice option on FanDuel, where his $7,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%. The Hornets are likely going to be without LaMelo Ball for the remainder of the season, which opens up usage and minutes for Hayward (and the rest of the roster).
Power Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo has been quiet recently. He’s only played in four of the Bucks’ past six games, and he’s scored 47.0 DraftKings points or fewer in all four contests. That’s nowhere near the type of production we’ve become accustomed to from him.
However, he’s in a prime get-right spot vs. the Blazers. Portland has been dreadful defensively this season, ranking just 29th in defensive efficiency, and they have no one who can match Giannis’ combination of size and athleticism. He should have a field day in this matchup, and the Bucks’ lead the slate with an implied team total of 120.75 points.
Value
I’m going to continue to lean on the Pelicans for value. James Johnson is someone who is always appealing in fantasy when he’s going to get an opportunity to play. He’s capable of racking up fantasy points quickly, evidenced by his average of 0.98 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He played 28.3 minutes yesterday with Williamson, Ingram, and Ball out of the lineup and ultimately finished with 28.75 DraftKings points.
Fast Break
Jaden McDaniels has quietly assumed a large workload for the Timberwolves recently. He’s played at least 33.0 minutes in four straight games, including at least 35.9 minutes in each of his past three. He’s responded with at least 29.75 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, including in a tough matchup vs. the Knicks on Wednesday. If he can find success against them, he should be able to put together another strong performance vs. the Grizzlies on Friday.
Pascal Siakam is another member of the Raptors who should command a massive workload with Lowry out of the lineup. He’s averaged 37.3 minutes per game in eight games without Lowry this season, and he’s currently projected for 37.5 minutes in our NBA Models. Siakam has averaged 1.10 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he can do some damage with all that playing time.
Center
Stud
Clint Capela is coming off a monster performance yesterday vs. the Spurs, finishing with 63.4 FanDuel points over more than 44.4 minutes. He draws another favorable matchup vs. the Pelicans on Friday, and he should continue to benefit from Atlanta’s current injury situation. John Collins remains out of the lineup, and Trae Young will also miss today’s contest due to a knee injury. That means Capela should see a few more minutes than usual, and possibly a few extra shot attempts as well.
Value
Cody Zeller was limited to just 20 minutes of playing time in the Hornets’ last game, but he should be looking at some additional playing time on Friday. The Pacers play two traditional big min at most teams, which means the Hornets can’t really go small against them. Zeller has averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he should be able to take advantage of a few additional minutes.
Fast Break
Deandre Ayton is coming off a poor performance in his last outing, but he has been a reliable fantasy producer of late. He’s scored at least 33.75 DraftKings points in six straight games prior to that performance, which makes him very reasonably priced at $6,500.
Pictured: Nickeil Alexander-Walker #6 of the New Orleans Pelicans
Photo Credit: Layne Murdoch Jr./NBAE via Getty Images
