The PGA TOUR continues its brief Texas swing this week as TPC San Antonio hosts the Valero Texas Open. The course is a par-72 measuring at 7,435 yards with Bermuda grass greens. The winning score here over the years usually settles around the 12-under range. However the last two winners, Corey Conners and Andrew Landry, won with scores of 20- and 17-under, respectively.
I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest type.
My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories that you need to know include:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
- Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
- Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green
For more information on Strokes Gained data and how to use it, check out this article from Bryan Mears on The Action Network, which unpacks each of the above metrics in detail. I also recommend Chris Murphy’s Strokes Gained column after each round of that week’s PGA TOUR event, which highlights golfers to buy and fade, and Matthew Vincenzi’s weekly “Stats That Matter” column, which highlights which Strokes Gained sub-metrics matter the most for a given course. The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.
Core Plays
Tony Finau ($11,000 DraftKings)
With news of Dustin Johnson’s withdrawal, Finau’s chances of taking home his second PGA TOUR title increase. I normally do not like paying these types of prices for Finau, but his recent history outside of The PLAYERS has been the best of his career. He was coming off three consecutive second-place finishes, sandwiched between a 14th and a fourth, prior to his opening-round blowup at TPC Sawgrass.
His rolling numbers tell the story as across his past 24 rounds in this field Finau ranks fourth in SG: Tee-to-Green, fifth in SG: Ball-Striking and second in total strokes gained. He’s played TPC San Antonio three times and finished third here in 2017, so he knows the course pretty well. All the contextual factors are in place this week for the Salt Lake City native, and he makes for a solid cash-game staple on DraftKings.
Corey Conners ($9,500 DraftKings)
Outside of last week when he went 0-3 in his three group play matches, Conners had been one of the hottest players on TOUR. The Florida swing was very kind to him as he finished third at the Arnold Palmer and then backed it up with a solo seventh at The PLAYERS. Conners has elite history here as he won this event the last time it was played in 2019 and finished T-26 the year prior.
Statistically speaking, he’s been the best player in this field over his past 24 rounds, ranking No.1 in SG: Tee-to-Green, SG: Ball-Striking and total strokes gained. The Canadian has been on quite the run and things should be no different this week at a course he fancies. Everyone in the field gets a bump with DJ backing out, but Conners likely would be $10K or higher had we known that before pricing came out.
Cameron Tringale ($9,300 DraftKings)
Much like Conners, Tringale has been on a nice run of his own of late, making nine of his past 10 cuts, including five top-20s in that stretch. The veteran has played TPC San Antonio 10 times since 2010, making the weekend in seven of them while posting a pair of top-10s and a T-17 most recently in 2019.
His rolling numbers over this stretch have been remarkable as well, as he ranks fourth in total strokes gained and sixth in both SG: Tee-to-Green and SG: Ball-Striking over his past 24 rounds. Tringale’s been a cut-making machine and shown significant upside beyond that lately, so $9,300 in this field is a very fair price.
Value Plays
Ryan Moore ($7,900 DraftKings)
This is strictly a course history play, as Moore has some of the best in this field. He’s played this event four times, finishing eighth, 18th, seventh and third, respectively, since 2012. It’s hard to envision him missing the cut here considering how good he’s been in the past and at just $7,900 on DraftKings, we’re getting some nice value.
His rolling stats have been pretty decent as well, as he ranks 12th in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green across his past 12 rounds. He will likely be somewhat chalky due to his history, but he’s a strong play in all formats.
Harold Varner III ($7,900 DraftKings)
It’s usually tough to pinpoint HV3 weeks, but based on his course history at TPC San Antonio, it appears this tournament has treated him well in the past. He’s made the weekend in three of his four trips, including a T-9 in 2016. He’s also coming in making five of his past six cuts, so it’s nice to see some consistency of late.
Varner sits 14th in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green and 16th in total strokes gained, both over his past 12 rounds. He makes for one of the safer plays in this range, which makes him optimal for cash game roster construction.
Chase Seiffert ($7,100 DraftKings)
We’re going to look to ride the recent wave of momentum from Seiffert, as he’s coming off three consecutive top-20 finishes, including a T-3 at the Honda Classic two weeks ago. He ranks fifth in SG: Tee-to-Green and third in both SG: Approach and total strokes gained over his past four rounds in this field. There was no shot link data from last week in Punta Cana because it was an alternate event, but he finished a very respectable 18th, so fear not.
This will be Seiffert’s first trip to TPC San Antonio, but as he showed at Corales, he can handle himself on longer courses if need be. He is too cheap for the way he’s been playing of late, and I’m more than happy to round out my cash game rosters with the 29-year old this week.
Other Targets
Si Woo Kim ($8,900 DraftKings)
It’s pretty simple really: Is the TOUR playing on a Pete Dye course, and if so is Kim in the field? If both are true then you automatically need to have shares of him, as he’s one of the best in the business on Dye tracks. This is evidenced best by his two career wins at The PLAYERS, and more recently the American Express this past January. He’s posted a runner-up finish at the RBC Heritage in 2018 as well. His history at this event is also strong, as he’s gone T-4 and T-22 in four trips.
He’s played poorly after his win at the Amex, but may have found his game at The PLAYERS, ranking third on approach and seventh in SG: Tee-to-Green over his past four rounds in this field. If going with a balanced approach this week look no further than Kim, as he looks to further cement his legacy as a Pete Dye specialist.
Photo Credit: Michael Reaves/Getty Images
Pictured: Tony Finau
