The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday’s slate features six games, scheduled to start at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Despite projected ownership to be higher for Lonzo Ball and Damian Lillard, the duo rates highly in our NBA Model and should be targets of yours. Ball is a top-three play at point guard, facing Lillard and the anemic Portland backcourt defense. He has a top-five matchup on FanDuel and DraftKings, according to Opponent Plus/Minus, while Lillard has the top Opponent Plus/Minus on DraftKings. The Pelicans and Trail Blazers game has the highest projected game total and the two teams rate one and two in projected team totals.
Value
Two players to keep an eye on are Jaylen Nowell and Raul Neto. Nowell has played at least 20 minutes in seven straight games and continues to see overlapped time on the court with Ricky Rubio as Minnesota tries to find offensive production. Neto is minimum price on FanDuel and could see a boost in time if Russell Westbrook sits out in the second of a back-to-back set.
Fast Break
Mike Conley is out for the Utah Jazz, boosting Jordan Clarkson against a potentially Westbrook-less Washington Wizards. He has point-guard eligibility on DraftKings, and is listed as a shooting guard on both sites.
Dennis Schroder’s Usage Rate has topped 24-plus percent in all but one game that he has played over the past month. The Lakers will continue to focus their offense through the ageless LeBron James, but Schroder is the clear number two with Anthony Davis injured. With Ball and Clarkson, it is plausible to fill all three guard position on DraftKings for under $19,500 of the $50,000 salary and expect 90 fantasy points. Not a bad start for a balanced lineup.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Devin Booker is priced as a top-five shooting guard, but is the top play on both sites. The Suns welcome Minnesota to the desert and should have their way. Booker has a top-three Projected Usage Rate and has 10 Pro Trends ahead of his matchup. That is best on DraftKings and second-most on FanDuel. Phoenix is tied with Portland for a 120-point projected team total.
Value
Joe Ingles has seen his usage and production jump without Mike Conley in the Jazz’s lineup. He has an 85 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel and is priced at $4,400. Ingles’ ownership could be among the highest because his increased role sans Conley is no secret. Ingles is eligible at small forward on DraftKings as well.
Fast Break
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been asked to carry a green Oklahoma City Thunder team and the expectations of him dominating every game are catching up to him. SGA’s Fantasy Points Per Minute (FPM) has dropped from 1.18 to 1.13 over the past month. Not a major drop but a sign that SGA is human. Oklahoma City is one of the teams expected to look at some of their G-League talent as the season progresses, so expect a heavy workload and a lot of defensive attention whenever Gilgeous-Alexander is in the lineup.
New York Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau loves him some Alec Burks. Burks played a season-high 35 minutes Tuesday, the most since opening night. He has topped 24 fantasy points on FanDuel in three of his last four contests and is only $4,500.
Talen Horton-Tucker has been great for the Los Angeles Lakers and is an affordable dart throw against Charlotte tonight. My main concern is THT has had multiple small stretches are great play before disappearing for weeks.
Small Forward
Stud
If you are fading LeBron James as the clear-cut top tier play, Brandon Ingram is my favorite pivot. He is $500 more than Gordon Hayward on FanDuel and $800 on DraftKings. Give me the middle of the salary sandwich. Projected ownership puts Ingram in similar territory as Hayward and James, but I expect that to change as the day progresses. Pairing Ingram and Ball while running it back with a cheaper Trail Blazer is an option if you want to attack the high game total.
Value
If you are not bottoming out for THT, Royce O’Neale could match up with Troy Brown or Davis Bertans with Rui Hachimura questionable because of COVID-19 health protocols. O’Neale is known more for his defense, but tonight could be one of his double-double ceiling games with stats in all categories.
Fast Break
Anthony Edwards has been playing his best string of basketball during a rocky rookie season and gets his first tough matchup in a while against Phoenix. He has an appealing 94 percent Leverage Score but will be in a game where pace of play (-5.4 Pace Differential) could keep his athleticism in check. If you do roster Edwards, cross your fingers that Devin Booker is asked to guard him instead of Mikal Bridges.
Reggie Bullock sticks out as a top five play on DraftKings, but his minutes fluctuate too much to consider as one of the better salary-saving options.
Danilo Gallinari’s FPM has jumped .09 points over the past month. I am not saying that Atlanta Hawks interim head coach Nate McMillan is the reason for Gallinari’s increased production, but I am just saying that he has been better since the coaching change.
Terrence Ross is questionable to play for Orlando as he deals with a knee issue. He went off against Miami four days ago despite being doubtful. His ownership is expected to be anywhere between one and eight percent.
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Power Forward
Stud
I love paying up for either Julius Randle or Zion Williamson. Randle could match up with a hobbled Aaron Gordon, while Zion is in a smash spot on the road in Portland. The two should command the most ownership at power forward because the position is thin. Eating chalk has to happen occasionally.
Value
Aleksej Pokusevski is coming off a dud Tuesday against Chicago. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position and only costs $4,700 on DraftKings and $4,300 on FanDuel.
Another player that saves salary is Dario Saric. He is the top power forward play and top five overall play on FanDuel. Minnesota’s forward rotation is in shambles (an evergreen statement) and Saric is a solid floor spacer that will shoot from anywhere.
Fast Break
Robert Covington is a contrarian play in the Pelicans-Trail Blazers game, but I have concerns about him getting into foul trouble as he lines up against Zion.
The top two plays on DraftKings are Taj Gibson and Frank Kaminsky. A healthy Gibson should eat into Nerlens Noel’s minutes and Kaminsky is a similar floor spacer as teammate Saric. Gibson is $3,200 while Kaminsky is minimum price.
Do not think too hard about who to play at power forward. It is the weakest position on the slate.
Center
Stud
Rudy Gobert is the top overall play on DraftKings against the potentially shorthanded (and bad) Wizards. He places as the third best center play on FanDuel, in line with his pricing. Gobert is also my favorite play at center despite the depth at the position because his defensive numbers tend to keep his floor high.
Karl-Anthony Towns and Deandre Ayton square off and make for good plays off Gobert if you tell a tale of him not being an offensive contributor in a potential blowout.
Value
Jaxson Hayes has been nipping at Steven Adams’ heels for the better part of two weeks, and while Adams has been the superior rebounder, Hayes has been scoring and has at least one block in six consecutive contests, including a game with three. Adams has one total over that same stretch. Hayes is $3,900 on FanDuel and a cool $3,200 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
If Al Horford is a “just because” scratch again for Oklahoma City, Moses Brown will be a lock for high ownership but has produced in limited minutes. No Horford also means a boost for John Collins and Clint Capela (heel) if he plays. No Capela would put Collins in his third advantageous put in as many games.
Nikola Vucevic has seen his usage rate in four of five March games including a massive 41.3% on Tuesday. He is also projected to have lower ownership than Towns and Gobert.
