The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a loaded, 11-game slate, starting at 7 p.m. ET.
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Point Guard
Stud
Malcolm Brogdon doesn’t have the reputation of being an elite fantasy point guard, but he’s been fantastic to start the season. He’s averaged 42.9 DraftKings points per game, scoring at least 54.25 DraftKings points in his past two contests.
Brogdon is in an excellent spot against the Rockets. They’ve struggled on the defensive end of the court, ranking just 20th in defensive efficiency, and Brogdon owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.14. Overall, Brogdon is simply too cheap given his matchup and recent production.
Value
The Clippers will be playing on the second leg of a back-to-back set, which means they will almost undoubtedly be without either Paul George or Kawhi Leonard against the Warriors. Leonard seems like the most logical rest candidate – George missed last night’s game with an “injury” – but odds are they will be playing shorthanded.
That means Lou Williams should be asked to carry a larger offensive workload. He finished with 23.0 DraftKings points in 21.3 minutes last night sans George, posting his highest usage rate of the season at 33.0%.
Fast Break
What does De’Aaron Fox have to do to get some respect on FanDuel? He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of his first seven games, yet his salary has actually decreased by -$700 over that timeframe. His current $7,800 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 65%, and he leads the PG position with 12 Pro Trends. He’s also in an excellent spot vs. the Bulls given his Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.58.
On the other side of that matchup, Coby White is another excellent option at the position. He’s carried a huge workload for the Bulls’ recently, and he’s currently projected for 36.1 minutes in our NBA Models. The Kings have been even worse against PGs than the Bulls this season, giving White an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.08 on FanDuel.
Shooting Guard
Stud
The big thing to monitor here is what happens with the Clippers. If Paul George returns to the lineup and Kawhi Leonard is ruled out, that’s going to make him an excellent DFS option tonight vs. the Warriors. NBA guru currently gives Kawhi just a 25% chance of suiting up, but make sure to monitor any updates using the Labs Insiders tool.
If Leonard is ruled out, George should command a massive usage rate for the Clippers vs. the Warriors. He’s increased his usage rate by +3.7% with Leonard off the court this season, and he’s led the team with a usage rate of 32.6% in two full games with Leonard out of the lineup. The Warriors are also a friendly matchup, ranking just 21st in defensive efficiency to start the year.
Value
Luke Kennard stands out as one of the best values on the slate if Leonard is unable to suit up. He started in place of George yesterday vs. the Spurs, and he would likely start again if Leonard is given the night off. He played 37.8 minutes last night, and he’s currently projected for 34.5 minutes in our NBA Models. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.65 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).
Fast Break
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has struggled recently, but it hasn’t exactly been his fault. The Thunder have been blown out in two of their past three games, which has resulted in fewer minutes. Gilgeous-Alexander is still on pace to post new career highs in virtually every category across the board, and he’s averaged 1.07 FanDuel points per minute this season. He should bounce back if the game vs. the Pelicans is more competitive.
James Harden isn’t expected to garner as much ownership as usual, which makes him an interesting target in tournaments. His usage rate was down in his last game, but he still possesses one of the highest ceilings in fantasy.
Small Forward
Stud
Brandon Ingram has been absolutely balling to start the year. He won the NBA’s Most Improved Player award last season, and he’s taken another step forward this season. He’s on pace to average a career-high in usage rate, assist rate, and rebound rate, resulting in an average of 1.34 DraftKings points per minute. That’s the highest mark on the slate at the small forward position, and Ingram is also averaging more than 34 minutes per game this season. He’s slightly underpriced at $8,400 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 65%.
Value
The SF position is loaded with strong values on FanDuel, but Justin Holiday stands out as one of the best. He’s priced at just $4,000, coming off a whopping 44.9 minutes in his last contest. He’s currently projected for 31.3 minutes in our NBA Models, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.07. Holiday also owns an excellent matchup vs. the Rockets, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.15.
Fast Break
Otto Porter is arguably the best pure value at the position on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $5,600, resulting in a position-high Bargain Rating of 72%. Porter has been fantastic when on the court this season, averaging 1.07 FanDuel points per minute, and he should continue to see a solid workload with Lauri Markkanen out of the lineup.
Jae Crowder is an appealing buy-low option tonight vs. the Raptors. He’s scored 13.25 DraftKings points or fewer in each of his past two games, but he’s still playing a healthy number of minutes for the Suns. He’s shot just 3-11 from the field over his past two contests, so he should be able to bounce back with some better shooting luck moving forward.
Power Forward
Stud
Domantas Sabonis is one of the league’s most talented big men. He put together a ridiculous season last year, averaging 18.5 points, 12.4 rebounds, and 5.0 assists per game, and he’s on pace to better his production this season. He’s averaged 48.4 DraftKings points per game through his first seven contests, which would best his mark from last season by nearly four points.
He’s in an elite spot tonight vs. the Rockets. The Rockets don’t just struggle on defense, but they’ve also been the second-worst rebounding team in the league to start the season.
Value
P.J. Washington’s playing time has been all over the map recently, but he has been productive when on the court this season. He’s averaging 0.98 DraftKings points per minute, which is an excellent mark considering his salary. He’s coming off 26.8 minutes in his last contest, and he’s underpriced if he’s going to see that much playing time today vs. the Hawks.
The game between the Hawks and Hornets also stands out as one of the best of the day from a Vegas perspective. The total is set at a slate-high 232.0 points, and the Hawks are merely six-point home favorites. That means this game should feature plenty of back-and-forth action
Fast Break
Julius Randle continues to absolutely smash. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.30 to start the season on FanDuel, and he’s coming off 57.9 FanDuel points in his last outing. The Knicks are expected to be shorthanded in the backcourt once again Wednesday vs. Jazz, so expect Randle to continue to operate as their primary playmaker. He leads all players with 14 Pro Trends on FanDuel.
John Collins has started to see a few additional minutes after being limited to start the year. He’s logged at least 33.1 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s averaged an elite 1.17 FanDuel points per minute this season. That makes him one of the best plays of the day at just $6,800.
Center
Stud
Joel Embiid has struggled from a fantasy perspective recently, which has caused his salary to drop to just $9,800 on DraftKings. That said, it hasn’t entirely been his fault. He’s seen reduced minutes in two of his past three games due to blowouts, and he’s still averaging a stout 1.54 DraftKings points per minute this season. He should be able to crush his current price tag when he returns to his usual workload.
Embiid is also in a wonderful spot vs. the Wizards. They rank just 27th in defensive efficiency to start the season, and Embiid racked up 52.0 DraftKings points in his first matchup vs. the Wizards this season. The 76ers are also implied for 118.75 points, which is the third-highest mark on the slate.
Value
Brook Lopez has not had the best start to his season. His playing time is way down – he’s averaged just 22.9 minutes through his first seven games – resulting in an average of just 18.02 DraftKings points per game. That said, he did see over 30 minutes in his last contest, so he appears to be trending in the right direction. The Bucks lead the slate with an implied team total of 119.25 points, and Lopez is a cheap way to get some exposure to them.
Fast Break
Nikola Vucevic is in a potential smash spot against the Cavaliers. They have been one of the worst teams in the league against opposing centers, giving Vucevic an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.21 on FanDuel. His 13 Pro Trends are also tied for the top mark at the position.
Myles Turner stands out as an elite value on DraftKings, where his $6,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He also benefits from the same elite matchup as Sabonis, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.17.
