NFL Week 16 features a three-game Saturday slate starting at 1 p.m. ET.
New NFL DFS Trial Offer: Try our new football subscription for $4.95 and get access to our industry-leading tools and projections.
Quarterback
Stud
It appears as though Kyler Murray is fully healthy again. His production dipped while dealing with a shoulder injury – he posted a negative Plus/Minus in four straight games – but he bounced back with a monster performance last week vs. the Eagles. He racked up 406 yards and three touchdowns through the air and added 29 rushing yards and a touchdown on the ground, resulting in 38.14 DraftKings points.
That makes him underpriced at his current salary across the industry. He’s particularly affordable at just $8,700 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 87%, and he’s historically posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.38 with a comparable price tag (per the Trends tool).
His matchup vs. the 49ers isn’t ideal, but the Cardinals’ implied team total of 26.75 is still the second-highest mark on the slate.
Value
Matthew Stafford isn’t a lock to play on Saturday. He’s currently listed as questionable with thumb and rib injuries, but he is tentatively expected to suit up. If he’s in the lineup, he would be an interesting target vs. the Bucs. They have been a juicy fantasy matchup for quarterbacks, giving him an Opponent Plus/Minus of +7.1, and he’s very affordable at just $5,600 on DraftKings. He should also command minimal ownership given the Lions’ coaching staff issues and the fact that he’s a 10-point underdog.
Quick Hits
On the other side of that matchup, Tom Brady can challenge Murray for the top spot at the QB position. He doesn’t provide nearly the same rushing upside, but the Bucs are implied for a whopping 32.25 points. Brady has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.69 with a comparable implied team total, and the Lions are one of the best possible matchups for quarterbacks. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.9 on DraftKings, and the Lions rank 31st in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA.
Tua Tagovailoa doesn’t possess a huge ceiling, but he has posted a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in three straight games. The Raiders have been slightly better against the pass than they have been vs. the run, but Tua still owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.3 on FanDuel. He’s a bit safer than Stafford at a similar price tag.
Running Back
Stud
This slate lacks a true stud running back, but Josh Jacobs is the closest thing to it. He has the potential to carry a massive workload, just like he did last week vs. the Chargers. He finished with 26 carries and three targets, resulting in 20.4 DraftKings points.
He’s in an interesting spot vs. the Dolphins. Their defense has improved significantly since the start of the season, but they are still somewhat vulnerable against the run. They rank just 24th in rush defense DVOA, per Football Outsiders, which is far worse than their rank against the pass (fifth). That means Jacobs could be looking at another heavy workload despite the Raiders being 3-point home underdogs.
Value
Ronald Jones will miss his second consecutive game for the Bucs, which means Leonard Fournette should once again operate as their lead back. He wasn’t particularly effective in that role last week – he finished with just 49 rushing yards on 14 carries – but he did manage to score two touchdowns. That was more than enough for him to return value from a fantasy perspective: He posted a Plus/Minus of +12.47 on DraftKings and +12.57 on FanDuel.
He’s nearly impossible to avoid this week vs. the Lions. They have been brutal against the run this season, and the game script should also be beneficial for Fournette. Running backs who are expected to receive the bulk of the carries have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.23 on DraftKings when favored by more than a touchdown.
Fournette leads the position in median, ceiling and floor projections in our NFL Models, and he also leads the position in Pro Trends on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He will likely be the highest-owned player on the slate, but he’s a candidate for the lock button.
Quick Hits
The Dolphins are getting healthier at running back. Myles Gaskin will return to the lineup this week, joining Salvon Ahmed and Matt Breida. Gaskin was carrying the workload when healthy earlier this season, but Ahmed has taken on that role recently. If one player can grab the lion’s share of the carries this week, they have the potential to be one of the best values on the slate given the Raiders’ struggles against the position. Both Gaskin and Ahmed will likely command lower ownership as well given the uncertainty, so this could be a spot to roll the dice on in tournaments.
Chase Edmonds is currently questionable, but he was able to get in a limited practice on Thursday. If he’s out, Kenyan Drake would likely become a very chalky option at the position. If he’s in, Edmonds could have some standalone value. He saw 11 carries and five targets last week vs. the Eagles and is affordable across the industry.
Wide Receiver
Stud
DeAndre Hopkins hasn’t seen any reduction in value despite changing teams in the offseason. If anything, he’s been better as a member of the Cardinals. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games on FanDuel, and he’s coming off 25.5 FanDuel points in his last outing.
Hopkins should have no problems scoring fantasy points vs. the 49ers. He plays almost exclusively on the left side of the offensive formation, which sets up a matchup vs. Ahkello Witherspoon. Witherspoon isn’t a bad cornerback, but he’s definitely not good enough to shut down Hopkins.
Hopkins is almost a must-play on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 91%.
Norm Hall/Getty Images. Pictured: DeAndre Hopkins (left) and Kyler Murray.
Value
Marvin Jones’ salary on DraftKings is the most egregious misprice on the entire slate. He’s priced at just $4,900 — an $800 decrease compared to his price tag last week — resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%. Jones has posted at least 28.6 DraftKings points in two of his past three games, so I have no idea why his price is moving down.
The Bucs’ pass defense has been very exploitable recently, giving Jones an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.6 on DraftKings. He owns the third-highest ceiling projection at the position despite having just the eighth-highest price tag, and he leads the position with 10 Pro Trends.
Quick Hits
Brandon Aiyuk saw a heavy workload last week, which was not surprising with Deebo Samuel out of the lineup. He saw 13 targets in that contest, and he’s averaged a ridiculous 12.4 targets over his past five. Unsurprisingly, he posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of those games. His role could be slightly reduced this week with George Kittle back in the lineup, but he still stands out as an excellent option at his current salary.
The Bucs’ WRs could be a bit lower-owned than some of the other wide receivers on this slate simply because it’s hard to choose between them. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown are all projected similarly in our NFL Models, but choosing the right one could make a huge difference. The Bucs’ implied team total is so high that at least one of them should be able to return value.
Tight End
Stud
The TE position is surprisingly deep for just a three-game slate. Not only is Kittle back – and he’s very affordable across the industry – but Darren Waller is also available. Waller has been dominant this season, racking up 93 catches for 967 yards and eight touchdowns. If not for Travis Kelce having one of the greatest seasons for a tight end in league history, Waller would be getting a lot more love.
Waller has finished with at least 10 targets in three straight games, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of them. He owns a monster ceiling in addition to a strong floor, evidenced by two games with at least 33.0 DraftKings points over his past three games.
Value
Rob Gronkowski has had a couple of subpar games recently, but he remains highly involved in the Bucs offense. He’s finished with at least six targets in three of his past four games, which is an excellent mark considering his salary. He’s a good bet to find the endzone this week given Tampa Bay’s massive implied team total.
Fast Break
T.J. Hockenson is coming off just 2.8 DraftKings points, which makes him an excellent buy-low target. He had seen at least seven targets in five of his previous six contests, and he posted a positive Plus/Minus in all five of them. He should serve as the Lions’ No. 2 option in the passing game behind Jones.
Mike Gesicki could be the forgotten man at the position this week. He missed last week’s game and is currently questionable, which should keep his ownership low if he does suit up. That said, Gesicki emerged as Tua’s favorite target prior to his injury, resulting in at least 23.5 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. He’s an excellent pivot off some of the chalkier options at the position.
