Merry Christmas! The NFL is giving us the gift of a game between the Saints and Vikings starting at 4:30 p.m. ET.
If you’re unfamiliar with the single-game NFL DFS format, it differs a bit on DraftKings and FanDuel. On DraftKings, you have one “captain” spot and five flexes. The captain will score 1.5x fantasy points, but he also costs 1.5x salary. That means if you want to roster Dalvin Cook at captain and take advantage of the scoring boost, you’ll have to pay $18,000 as opposed to $12,000.
FanDuel’s single-game format features one “MVP” spot and four flexes. The MVP also scores 1.5x fantasy points, but he doesn’t cost any additional salary. That takes away a bit of the strategy and makes the goal simple: get your highest-scoring player in the MVP spot.
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Studs
This game features plenty of high-dollar fantasy studs.
It starts with Cook, who is coming off a monster performance last week vs. the Bears. He racked up 132 yards and one touchdown on the ground and five catches for 27 yards through the air, resulting in 29.9 DraftKings points. Overall, Cook has posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.10 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, and he’s gone for at least 22 DraftKings points in five of his past seven games.
That said, this is about as tough of a spot as you can ask for. The Saints have been excellent against the run this season – they rank second in Football Outsiders’ rush defense DVOA – giving Cook an Opponent Plus/Minus of -3.5 on DraftKings. The Vikings are also seven-point underdogs, which usually leads to a poor game script for running backs. Even elite running backs like Cook tend to struggle in these situations: RBs averaging at least 20 fantasy points per game over the past month have historically posted a Plus/Minus of -1.97 (per the Trends tool).
Cook has the talent to succeed in any matchup, but he has more downside than usual.
Cook has been the highest-scoring running back this season per game, but Alvin Kamara has scored more total points in PPR formats. His fantasy value took a brief hit with Taysom Hill at quarterback, but Kamara is back to being arguably the best fantasy running back in the league with Drew Brees under center. He has the potential to rack up double-digit carries and double-digit targets, and he also ranks second in the league in red zone opportunities per game. That’s a lethal combination in fantasy.
He doesn’t face nearly the same game script concerns as Cook, and he also has a much friendlier matchup. The Vikings have struggled against running backs to begin with this season – Cook owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.6 – and they will be without stud middle linebacker Eric Kendricks for this contest. He owns the second-highest Pro Football Focus grade among inside linebackers, including the second-best grade in pass coverage. That could spell trouble against Kamara.
The quarterbacks are also in play. Brees did not look like himself last week vs. the Chiefs, but that’s to be expected following a long layoff. He did get better as the game progressed – he threw three touchdown passes in the second half – so hopefully he shook off the rust in that contest.
The Vikings have been better against the pass than they have been against the run, but Brees should still find success in this matchup. The bigger question is if all the injuries that the Saints have sustained at wide receiver will have an impact. Michael Thomas is still on injured reserve, and Tre’Quan Smith was just placed on injured reserve with an ankle injury. That leaves the team without a ton of viable pass catchers.
Kirk Cousins doesn’t have the same concerns at wide receiver, but he will face a stiff test in this matchup. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -2.9, which is one of the worst marks on the slate.
Cousins has also historically struggled as a road underdog of seven points or more, posting an average Plus/Minus of -1.43 and a Consistency Rating of just 30%.
Midrange
The best way to attack the Vikings might be with their stud wide receivers. They are not nearly as susceptible to bad game scripts as running backs, and they can potentially rack up catches and yards in garbage time.
Justin Jefferson has emerged as their No. 1 pass-catcher as a rookie. Saying he’s been one of the best receivers in the league in just his first season would not be an understatement, and he ranks second at the position in terms of Pro Football Focus grade. He plays most of his snaps on the right side of the offensive formation, which sets up a winnable matchup vs. Marshon Lattimore. Lattimore has previously been one of the best cover corners in the league, but he owns a PFF-grade of just 52.0 this season. That gives Jefferson a sizable advantage.
Adam Thielen has taken a back seat to Jefferson recently, logging just seven total targets over his past two games, and his matchup vs. Janoris Jenkins isn’t nearly as appealing. That said, he still owns a 22% edge in that matchup according to PFF, and his salary has come down across the industry. He’s a prime buy-low target, and he’s even a viable option in the Captain spot.
Emmanuel Sanders has been priced way up, which is not surprising with Thomas out of the lineup. That said, he may be too expensive. He saw just five targets last week with Thomas out, and he has just two games all season with more than six targets. He’s not the kind of volume hog that you would expect for a receiver at this price tag.
Jared Cook is more reasonably priced. He also saw five targets last week but managed just two catches for 29 yards. He had developed some solid chemistry with Brees earlier in the season – he had a stretch with a touchdown catch in four of five games – so he’s a nice option. Like Kamara, he should benefit from Kendricks being out of the lineup.
Taysom Hill is being priced like a backup quarterback across the industry, and he’s unplayable at that salary. He scored a touchdown last week and still finished with just 6.3 DraftKings points.
Latavius Murray managed to salvage his fantasy value last week with a touchdown, but the rest of his box score was unimpressive. He was on the field for just 16 of 54 snaps and finished with just four carries and three targets. However, it is important to remember that the Saints trailed for the majority of that contest. If they can establish a lead vs. the Vikings, Murray could see a much larger workload. He is the ultimate pivot off Kamara given their correlation of -0.42.
Irv Smith should continue to serve as the Vikings TE1 with Kyle Rudolph out of the lineup. That is a pretty valuable role given how often the Vikings utilize tight ends in their offense, and he was on the field for a season-high 82% of the snaps last week. That said, the Saints rank second in DVOA vs. the TE position, so this is a very tough matchup.
Quick Hits
- Kickers and Defenses – These options are always in play in the single-game format. The kickers are standing out as the best values of this group in our NFL Models, but the Saints D has the highest ceiling projection.
- Tyler Conklin: $3,000 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel – Conklin has moved up the TE depth chart with Rudolph out, and the Vikings run a ton of two-TE formations. He’s posted back-to-back strong outings, scoring 14.7 and 9.0 DraftKings points. He’s a solid value option.
- Lil’Jordan Humphrey: $2,600 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel – This slate will likely come down to identifying which value option for the Saints will return value. Humphrey is definitely a possibility. Despite his name, he has massive size for the WR position, which could make him a prime red-zone target. He scored a touchdown last week and played on 50% of the snaps.
- Juwan Johnson: $2,200 on DraftKings, $5,000 on FanDuel – Johnson is another possibility for the Saints, and he played on 76% of the offensive snaps last week. He didn’t catch a single pass in that game, but he did see four targets.
- Chad Beebe: $1,800 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel – He doesn’t possess the same upside as the Saints’ punt plays, but that should result in minimal ownership. He’s operating as the Vikings’ No. 3 WR.
- Adam Trautman: $1,000 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel – Trautman didn’t see a target last week, but he was on the field for 38% of the offensive snaps. That’s enough for him to warrant consideration.
- Marquez Callaway: $200 on DraftKings, $5,000 on FanDuel – Callaway was just activated off the IR, and he has a chance to be the highest-owned player on the slate. He leads all players in projected Plus/Minus – especially on DraftKings – and he’s already had a game with 10 targets this season. That game came with Thomas, Smith, and Sanders out of the lineup, but he could be the No. 2 WR on the depth chart.
