Saturday features a two-game NFL slate starting at 4:30 p.m. ET.
These are the top DFS plays for those games.
Quarterback
Stud
Aaron Rodgers is the most expensive passer on this two-game slate, but Josh Allen stands out as the better value. He’s slightly cheaper across the industry, but owns a higher median projection in our NFL Models.
Allen benefits from being able to contribute fantasy points with his arm and his legs. He’s made massive strides as a passer this season, averaging 8.1 adjusted yards per attempt and remains one of the biggest threats at the quarterback position around the goal line. He’s scored 23 rushing touchdowns in 41 career games, including six in his first 11 games this season.
Add it all up, and Allen has posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.94 on DraftKings through 13 starts in 2020.
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Value
Teddy Bridgewater is the top option for those looking to pay down at the position. He’ll have one of his top playmakers back in the lineup in D.J. Moore, and he has an exploitable matchup vs. the Packers. They rank just 19th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA.
Bridgewater stands out in particular on DraftKings, where his $5,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. He’ll save you $2,000, compared to Allen and $2,600 compared to Rodgers. Those savings will definitely allow you to beef up the rest of your lineup.
Quick Hits
Rodgers is always in play, especially as a large home favorite. The Packers are favored by eight points this week vs. the Panthers, and Rodgers has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.02 as a comparable favorite at Lambeau Field (per the Trends tool). The Panthers are also an elite matchup, ranking just 27th in pass defense DVOA. He leads all quarterbacks in terms of ceiling projection.
Drew Lock rounds out Saturday’s signal-callers, and he’s the toughest to make a case for. His matchup vs. the Bills is solid, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.5, but his production is volatile from week-to-week. That said, he should command the lowest ownership at the position, which always has appeal on small slates.
Running Back
Stud
Aaron Jones stands out as the top option at the position. He leads all players with 14 Pro Trends on FanDuel, and players with a comparable number of Pro Trends have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.35. Like Rodgers, Jones has also historically thrived as a large home favorite, averaging a Plus/Minus of +6.56 in 16 games.
The one downside to Jones is that his matchup is subpar. The Panthers have been much better against the run than the pass this season, and Jones owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -2.3 on FanDuel. Jamaal Williams also remains a threat to cut into his workload on a weekly basis.
Value
The Broncos’ running back situation will be an interesting one to monitor before lineup lock. Both Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay are listed as questionable, which would create some value if either player is ultimately ruled out. Those two players split the workload basically right down the middle last week, so if one is inactive, the other would become an excellent play.
If both players are ruled out, Royce Freeman would likely step in as the feature back. He hasn’t had many opportunities this season, but he’s averaged 4.3 yards per attempt on 30 carries.
Quick Hits
Christian McCaffrey has been ruled out vs. the Packers, which means Mike Davis should carry the workload for the Panthers once again. He played on 73% of their offensive snaps in place of McCaffrey last week and finished with 11 rushes, six targets and two touchdowns. He’s logged at least five targets in nine of 12 games this season, with his ability as a pass catcher likely allowing him to maintain fantasy value even if the Packers jump out to a lead.
The Bills are another team that employs a committee at running back, but Zack Moss seems like the preferred option. He saw six more carries than Devin Singletary last week, and Moss is also the player who typically plays around the goal line.
Wide Receiver
Stud
Davante Adams is the most expensive player on the slate, but continues to be the safest investment in DFS. His workload recently has been more comparable to that of an elite running back. He’s scored at least one touchdown in eight straight games – including three games with multiple scores – and eclipsed 100 yards in five of them. His chemistry with Rodgers is incredible all over the field, but it is particularly impressive around the goal line.
Adams’ has graded out as the No. 1 WR in all of football this season, according to Pro Football Focus, and the Panthers have no answer for him. None of the Carolina corners owns a PFF-grade of higher than 64.7, so Adams is going to have a huge edge regardless of who lines up across from him.
He should command massive ownership in this spot, but it’s hard to imagine a situation where he busts.
Value
John Brown has been ruled out for the fourth consecutive week, so Cole Beasley should continue to see an expanded role for the Bills. He’s logged at least 10 targets in back-to-back games, averaging 16.47 DraftKings points over his past three contests. That number is a bit inflated by his 31.0 DraftKings points vs. the 49ers, but he’s still scored at least 9.1 DraftKings points in three consecutive weeks. That would be enough for him to return value at just $4,700, so any additional production is just gravy.
Gabriel Davis has also seen a boost in value with Brown out of the lineup. He’s scored in each of his past three games, and his eight targets last week, where his second-highest mark of the season. He should be lower owned than Beasley, which makes him an interesting stacking partner with Allen for tournaments.
Quick Hits
Stefon Diggs is the alpha wide receiver for the Bills, and he can challenge Adams for the top spot at the position on Saturday’s slate. He leads the league with 100 receptions entering Week 15, and his 89.8 receiving yards per game ranks fourth. The only thing he hasn’t done much of his score touchdowns, but he can match the ceiling of any receiver in the league in games where he finds the end zone.
Moore is an interesting option this week. His ownership could be slightly lower than usual following his stint on the reserve/COVID-19 list, but he stands out as the Panthers’ WR with the best individual matchup. Jaire Alexander plays 70% of his snaps on the left side of the defensive formation, which means he should spend more time guarding Robby Anderson than Moore. With that in mind, Bridgewater could look in Moore’s direction a bit more than usual this week.
Tight End
Stud
Tight end is a dumpster fire on this slate. Robert Tonyan is the most expensive option, yet he’s priced at just $4,500 on DraftKings.
Believe it or not, Tonyan has been the fourth-highest scoring tight end in PPR leagues this season, ranking sixth in fantasy points per game. That’s pretty crazy for a guy who wasn’t even expected to start at the position for the Packers.
He’s developed into one of Rodgers’ most trusted options in the passing game. He’s seen five targets in each of his past four games, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all of them. That said, he has scored a touchdown in each of those games, and his salary has risen over that time frame. If he doesn’t find the end zone this week vs. the Panthers, he will struggle to return value.
Value
Dawson Knox is an interesting prospect at tight end. He was a third-round draft pick in 2019 and has solid athletic measurables, which has led to him starting to earn more playing time recently. He’s coming off an 80 percent snap share last week vs. the Steelers, which was his highest mark of the season. Knox also recorded a season-high seven targets. He’s a very interesting punt play at $2,800 on DraftKings.
Quick Hits
Noah Fant was limited to just five snaps last week vs. the Panthers, but was removed from the injury report for thetas game. Fant has seen plenty of targets recently, but his fantasy value hinges on how well Lock performs.
Pictured above: Green Bay Packers stars Davante Adams, left, and Aaron Rodgers.
Photo credit: Rey Del Rio/Getty Images
