The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: things like salary, ceiling and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our Models and take a look at some of the players with the highest ceilings, value ratings and projected ownership for the Week 14 NFL slate.
New NFL DFS Trial Offer: Try our new football subscription for $4.95 and get access to our industry-leading tools and projections.
Quarterback
Top Ceiling: Patrick Mahomes @ NO — $7,900 on DraftKings, $8,900 on FanDuel
Mahomes is coming off a down performance last week vs. the Dolphins, but he was still able to post a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings. That’s how good of a fantasy season he’s been having. He leads the league with an average of 323.7 passing yards per game, and he’s also racked up 33 touchdowns to just five interceptions. Overall, he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.43 through 13 starts in 2020.
Mahomes has a tough matchup this week vs. the Saints, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -4.2 on DraftKings, but he still leads the position in terms of ceiling projection. This game also stands out from a Vegas perspective. It leads the slate with a 52-point total, and the Chiefs are just 3-point favorites. Games that are expected to be high-scoring and competitive have the potential for tons of fantasy value.
Top Value: Jalen Hurts @ ARI — $5,900 on DraftKings, $6,900 on FanDuel
You couldn’t ask for a much better first career start than what Hurts did last week. He racked up more than 100 yards on the ground and added 167 yards and one touchdown through the air, resulting in 23.28 DraftKings points. The fact that he did that against the Saints, who rank second in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA, is even more impressive.
Hurts should continue to deliver fantasy production moving forward thanks to his dual-threat skill set. He is best known as a runner, but he also ranked in at least the 95th percentile in terms of college QBR, college YPA and breakout age according to PlayerProfiler. That is a potentially lethal combination for fantasy purposes.
He’s in another tough spot this week vs. the Cardinals but if he can succeed against the Saints, he can succeed against anyone. Hurts leads the position in projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Top Ownership: Lamar Jackson vs. JAX — $7,500 on DraftKings, $8,200 on FanDuel
Jackson had to overcome some adversity last week — he battled the turf early and cramps (allegedly) late — but he was absolutely dominant in a must-win game against the Browns. Jackson was sensational on the ground, racking up 124 yards and two touchdowns, and he did enough with his arm to earn a victory and 37.92 DraftKings points.
Now, the reigning NFL MVP gets a mouth-watering matchup vs. the Jaguars, who have been arguably the worst defensive team in the league this season. Jacksonville is dead last in defensive DVOA, and Jackson owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.2 on FanDuel. The Jaguars just let the Titans trample them for nearly 250 yards on the ground, so Jackson and the Ravens’ RBs could have an absolute field day.
Jackson should be popular throughout the industry, but expect him to be particularly chalky on FanDuel. He’s currently projected for 13-16% ownership, which makes sense given his Bargain Rating of 99%.
Running Back
Top Ceiling: Dalvin Cook vs. CHI — $9,000 on DraftKings, $9,400 on FanDuel
This is very close between Cook and Derrick Henry, but our Models give the slightest of edges to Cook in terms of ceiling. His matchup vs. the Bears is not as appealing as Henry’s — it results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.6 on DraftKings — but he should be able to make up for it with his involvement in the passing game. Cook has averaged 5.2 targets and 4.2 receptions over his past five games, while Henry has averaged just 2.2 targets and 1.5 receptions over the same time frame. That difference can really add up on a PPR site like DraftKings.
Of course, Cook is capable of doing a lot of damage as a runner, as well. He’s averaged 123.3 rushing yards per game since returning from an injury in Week 8, and he’s also scored eight touchdowns (seven rushing, one receiving) over that time frame.
Cook is also expected to come at a slight ownership discount compared to Henry, which further increases his appeal in tournaments.
Top Value: Leonard Fournette @ ATL — $4,500 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel
Fournette was a healthy scratch last week, but he has the potential to step into a huge workload vs. the Falcons. Ronald Jones was already dealing with a broken pinky, and he landed on the reserve/COVID-19 list on Wednesday. He still hasn’t been officially ruled out, but it seems like a foregone conclusion at this point.
With Jones expected to be out of the picture, Fournette should handle the majority of the backfield opportunities for the Bucs. LeSean McCoy and Ke’Shawn Vaughn will still be around to spell him from time to time, but offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich has already stated that the Bucs will lean on Fournette.
The matchup vs. the Falcons is not ideal — it results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -3.7 on DraftKings — but it’s hard to pass up a potential bell-cow RB at his current price across the industry. The Bucs are also 6-point favorites and own an implied team total of 27.25, both of which are solid marks for a running back.
Top Ownership: Alvin Kamara vs. TB — $7,400 on DraftKings, $7,800 on FanDuel
Henry is currently projected for the most ownership in our NFL Models, but it would not surprise me if Kamara surpasses him by the time Sunday rolls around. Drew Brees is expected to start this week, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, and Kamara is simply way too cheap if that is the case. His price has dropped after playing four games with Taysom Hill, who was much more inclined to tuck it and run than check it down to Kamara. He did see 10 targets in his last game, but Kamara saw three or fewer in each of his first three games with Hill.
With Brees back in the lineup, Kamara should return to his role from early in the season. He was an absolute fantasy monster with Brees under center, averaging 54 rushing yards, 7.4 receptions, and 72 receiving yards per game. He also scored 11 total touchdowns in nine games with Brees.
The projected game environment also bodes well for Kamara. Not only is this game expected to be high scoring, but the Chiefs have also struggled against running backs this season. They rank 30th in rush defense DVOA and 31st in pass defense DVOA vs. running backs.
Wide Receiver
Top Ceiling: Tyreek Hill @ NO — $8,800 on DraftKings, $9,300 on FanDuel
Hill is expensive at the moment, but he’s been worth every penny recently. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +8.10 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, and he provides an elite combination of floor and ceiling. Hill has averaged 11.6 targets over his past seven games, and he is capable of turning any target into a long touchdown.
The Saints’ pass defense is excellent, but they have been vulnerable in two areas: the middle of the field and the deep ball. Hill is the perfect player to exploit those weaknesses. Not only does he have blazing speed, but he also plays the majority of his snaps in the slot. Overall, Pro Football Focus gives him one of the largest advantages at the receiver position this week given his matchup vs. slot corner Chauncey Gardner-Johnson.
Top Value: Michael Gallup vs. SF — $3,500 on DraftKings, $5,200 on FanDuel
There are tons of stud targets in good spots this week, so you’re going to need to find some salary savers to round out your lineup. Gallup could be one of those guys, particularly at just $3,500 on DraftKings. He leads the receiver position in terms of projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings, and he ranks fourth among wideouts on FanDuel.
Gallup got off to a bit of a slow start this season, but his role has increased of late. He’s seen at least six targets in five of his last six games, and he’s cracked double-digit DraftKings points in three of them. That isn’t exactly crushing it from a fantasy perspective, but it makes him underpriced at $3,500.
His matchup vs. the 49ers also isn’t as bad as you might think. The 49ers have struggled with wide receivers this season, giving Gallup an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.6 on DraftKings.
Top Ownership: Brandon Aiyuk @ DAL — $6,300 on DraftKings, $6,900 on FanDuel
Expect Aiyuk to be extremely popular on the other side of that matchup. Deebo Samuel is expected to miss the remainder of the season, which leaves Aiyuk as the clear No. 1 option in the 49ers’ passing attack. Aiyuk has already seen a monster workload recently — he’s averaged 12.3 targets over his past four games — and he could see even more opportunities with Samuel out of the lineup.
He draws a great matchup this week vs. the Cowboys, who have struggled on the defensive side of the ball this season. Aiyuk owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.4 on DraftKings, so this sets up as a potential smash spot.
Tight End
Top Ceiling: Travis Kelce @ NO — $8,000 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel
It’s tough to pay $8,000 for a tight end, but no one player at the position can match Kelce’s upside. His ceiling projection is nearly 10 points higher than every other TE’s on DraftKings, and he has been hitting his ceiling a lot recently. Kelce has posted a positive Plus/Minus in eight of his past nine games, and he’s scored at least 22.5 DraftKings points in seven of them. That includes back-to-back weeks with 30.6 DraftKings points, and games like that have made him one of the most valuable assets in fantasy this season.
Kelce also has narrative street working for him. He currently leads the league in receiving yards, which is something that no TE in NFL history has ever accomplished. He’s also just 128 yards away from breaking the record for most receiving yards in a season by a tight end, and it’s possible that the Chiefs do everything in their power to get Kelce those records with time to spare.
Top Value: Dalton Schultz vs. SF — $3,200 on DraftKings, $5,200 on FanDuel
Schultz leads the position in projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel. There’s nothing sexy about him this week in particular, but he’s cheap and he gets a handful of targets on a weekly basis. That’s enough to be a great play at a position that has been a dumpster fire outside of a few players this season.
Top Ownership: Cole Kmet @ MIN — $3,000 on DraftKings, $5,100 on FanDuel
Kelce is expected to be the highest-owned tight end this week, and Mark Andrews should also be popular at the top of the pricing spectrum. That said, Kmet should garner significant ownership for those paying down at the position, particularly at just $3,000 on DraftKings.
He’s clearly surpassed Jimmy Graham on the Bears’ depth chart, and he’s seen seven targets in back-to-back games. His matchup vs. the Vikings isn’t great on paper, but it would be much friendlier if Eric Kendricks is out of the lineup. He’s one of the best cover linebackers in the league, and he is not expected to play after missing practice each day this week.
Pictured above: Alvin Kamara
Credit: Wesley Hitt/Getty Images.
