NFL

Sunday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Buy Low on Pass-Happy Steelers vs. Bills (Dec. 13)

By Matt LaMarca @MattLaMarca
Dec 13, 2020

NFL Week 14 features a Sunday Night Football matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers starting at 8:20 p.m. ET.

If you’re unfamiliar with the single-game NFL DFS format, it differs a bit on DraftKings and FanDuel. On DraftKings, you have one “captain” spot and five flexes. The captain will score 1.5x fantasy points, but he also costs 1.5x salary. That means if you want to roster Josh Allen at captain and take advantage of the scoring boost, you’ll have to pay $18,300 as opposed to $12,200.

FanDuel’s single-game format features one “MVP” spot and four flexes. The MVP also scores 1.5x fantasy points, but he doesn’t cost any additional salary. That takes away a bit of the strategy and makes the goal simple: get your highest-scoring player in the MVP spot.

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Studs

Both of these teams played on Monday last week, and they are coming off drastically different results. The Steelers dropped their first game of the season, and they struggled to find any rhythm offensively against Washington.

Buffalo had no such problems vs. San Francisco, which has caused some interesting line movement for this matchup. This game was listed as a pick ‘em on the advance spread, but it has moved to Bills -2.5 as of Sunday morning. That means the Bills have a slight edge in implied team total, but it’s also fair to question whether or not that is an overreaction based on just one week.

Allen is the most expensive player in this contest, and he’s been one of the better fantasy assets this season. He ranks fourth in the league this season in terms of fantasy points per game thanks to his ability to rack up points with his arm and his legs. He was brilliant last week vs. the 49ers, finishing with 34.1 DraftKings points, and he’s scored at least 29.36 DraftKings points in three of his past four games. Unsurprisingly, he leads all players in our NFL Models in terms of ceiling and median projection.

That said, this matchup vs. the Steelers is a brutal one. They rank first in the league in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA, including first in pass defense DVOA and third in adjusted sack rate. Add it all up, and Allen’s Opponent Plus/Minus of -4.8 is the worst mark on the slate.

Allen is still capable of finding success in this matchup, but he has a bit more downside than usual. He also figures to be one of the highest-owned players on the slate, particularly at the Captain spot on DraftKings.

Ben Roethlisberger has completely transformed his style of play this season. He used to try to buy time in the pocket – mainly with his elite pump fake – and give his receivers time to get open downfield. Now, no one in the league gets rid of the ball quicker than Roethlisberger. He’s averaging just 2.29 seconds per dropback per NFL Next Gen Stats, which is the top mark in the league by a sizable margin.

The Steelers’ offense has also transformed recently. They haven’t had much success running the ball this season, so they’ve moved to a system that emphasizes short passes instead of the run. As a result, Roethlisberger has thrown at least 46 passes in each of his past four games, including at least 51 in each of his past two. That is absolutely ridiculous volume.

Big Ben should have no problems against a Bills defense that has been mediocre against the pass this season. They rank just 14th in pass defense DVOA, giving Roethlisberger an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.1 on DraftKings.

Stefon Diggs rounds out the stud tier, and he’s had an excellent first season with the Bills. He’s commanded one of the top target market shares in the league – he’s logged at least 11 targets in five of his past eight games – and he ranks first in the league in receptions and sixth in yards per game. The only thing has hasn’t done much of is score touchdowns, which has kept his fantasy production somewhat in check.

As good as the Steelers’ defense is, Diggs shouldn’t have too much trouble from an individual matchup perspective. He moves all over the field for the Bills, and none of the Steelers’ corners are shutdown players.

Midrange

This price range is headlined by the Steelers’ elite WR trio. Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool and JuJu Smith-Schuster have all had big games this season, and the Steelers have been throwing the ball enough to make all three relevant on a weekly basis.

Johnson is the safest of the bunch given his massive target share. He’s logged double-digit targets in six of his past seven games, including each of his past five. He has drawn some criticism recently for his drops, but the guy clearly knows how to get open at the NFL level.

Claypool is more of the big-play threat. He doesn’t play nearly as many snaps as Johnson or Smith-Schuster, but he makes up for that with his ability to score touchdowns. He leads the team with 10 touchdowns this season, and the Steelers have utilized him heavily in the red zone. He’s coming off a poor performance last week vs. Washington, which makes this an interesting buy-low spot.

Smith-Schuster is the cheapest option of the trio, which might make him the best pure value. He’s seen at least nine targets in back-to-back games and leads the trio in terms of projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings.

James Conner has missed each of the past two games after being placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list, but he will be back in the lineup vs. the Bills. Benny Snell and Anthony McFarland struggled to get things going in his absence, so expect Conner to assume his usual workload right out of the gates.

That said, there’s no guarantee that he’ll return value in that role. Conner had posted a negative Plus/Minus in five straight games prior to landing on the reserve/COVID-19 list, which makes sense given how pass-happy the Steelers’ offense has become. Snell also remains a threat to vulture Conner in the red zone, which is something that he’s done on multiple occasions this season.

Cole Beasley was deadly against the 49ers last week, finishing with nine catches, 130 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets. He should remain highly involved in the Bills’ passing attack with John Brown sidelined, but this feels like the right time to sell high on him. His price and projected ownership have both become inflated, and his individual matchup vs. Mike Hilton is not nearly as good as his matchup was vs. the 49ers.

Gabriel Davis seems like a better option at his price tag. He hasn’t seen as many targets as Beasley recently, but he’s made up for it by racking up big plays. He’s averaged 24.5 yards per catch over the past two weeks, and he’s scored a touchdown in both contests.

Eric Ebron may not receive the same attention as the Steelers’ WRs, but he’s been just as valuable from a fantasy perspective recently. He’s logged 11 targets in back-to-back games, and he’s scored at least 11.0 DraftKings points in six of his past seven. That gives him a safe floor and a nice ceiling at his current price tag across the industry.

Last but not least is the Bills’ RB duo. Devin Singletary and Zack Moss have each received approximately 50% of the work recently, but Singletary’s 22 opportunities last week dwarfed Moss’ four. However, I wouldn’t read into that too much. Moss was essentially benched after a botched QB/RB exchange last week, which allowed Singletary to play much more than usual. I would expect Moss to return to his usual workload this week, which makes him a nice buy-low candidate.