The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: things like salary, ceiling and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our Models and take a look at some of the players with the highest ceilings, value ratings and projected ownership for the Week 13 NFL slate.
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Quarterback
Top Ceiling: Russell Wilson vs. NYJ — $7,900 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel
The #LetRussCook movement has taken a bit of a hit recently. He has not looked like the same QB who started the season red hot, scoring 20.08 DraftKings points or fewer in each of his past four contests. Unsurprisingly, he’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in each of those games.
That said, this matchup vs. the Jets should be the perfect medicine for his ailing fantasy stock. They have been a fantastic matchup for QBs all season, giving Wilson an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.6 on DraftKings, and the Seahawks’ implied team total of 30.25 is the second-highest mark on the slate.
Top Value: Matt Ryan @ LAC — $5,700 on DraftKings, $7,300 on FanDuel
Ryan is simply way too cheap this week at $5,700 on DraftKings. He’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.74 with a comparable price tag (per the Trends tool), and he’s facing a team that just allowed the Patriots to score 45 points last week.
Ryan will be without his favorite target this week in Julio Jones, but he should still be able to pick the Chargers apart with Calvin Ridley and company. The Chargers rank just 26th in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA, including 20th against the pass.
Top Ownership: Patrick Mahomes @ MIA — $8,100 on DraftKings, $8,900 on FanDuel
Ownership is expected to be spread out at quarterback this week. Wilson, Mahomes, and Aaron Rodgers are expected to command 9-12% at the high-end of the pricing spectrum, while Ryan and Ryan Tannehill should be popular value options.
Mahomes doesn’t have a great matchup this week vs. the Dolphins – it results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.8 on FanDuel – but Mahomes is as matchup-proof as they come. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in 11 of 12 starts this season on FanDuel, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +6.74. He’s particularly appealing this week on FanDuel, where his $8,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Running Back
Top Ceiling: Derrick Henry @ JAX — $8,700 on DraftKings, $9,600 on FanDuel
Henry is a bit of a unicorn as far as stud fantasy running backs go. He doesn’t provide much value as a pass catcher, which is something that most top RBs do these days. Instead, he provides nearly all of his value as a between-the-tackles grinder who racks up rushing yards and touchdowns. The lack of receiving production does give him a slightly lower floor than guys like Dalvin Cook, but Henry still has plenty of ceiling. He’s already recorded two games with at least 175 rushing yards and multiple touchdowns this season.
Henry is in a potential smash spot this week vs. the Jaguars. They have been quite possibly the worst defense in football this season, and they rank just 23rd in rush defense DVOA. The Titans are implied for 30 points in this matchup, and they’re also 7.5-point favorites. Henry has never played in a game with such a high implied team total, but he has historically thrived as a favorite. He’s played in 14 games as a favorite of at least four points since becoming the full-time starter, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.99 on DraftKings in those contests.
Top Value: J.D. McKissic @ SF — $4,900 on DraftKings, $5,300 on FanDuel
Washington will likely be without top RB Antonio Gibson in this matchup, which opens up some value for guys like McKissic and Peyton Barber. They combined for 19 carries and 10 targets after Gibson left last week’s contest vs. the Steelers, which is plenty of work to be split between the two of them.
McKissic stands out as the better option on DraftKings given his ability as a pass catcher. He’s seen at least 10 targets in three of his past five games since Alex Smith loves to check the ball down when he’s under pressure. Those targets add up quickly on a full PPR site like DraftKings, and McKissic has scored at least 17.2 DraftKings points in all three of those games. His projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings is tied with James Robinson’s for the best mark at the position.
Barber might be the preferred target on FanDuel. He should be expected to grab the majority of the rushing attempts, and he leads the position in projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Top Ownership: Austin Ekeler vs. ATL — $7,000 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel
Henry is expected to command the top ownership at the RB position this week, but Ekeler won’t be too far behind on DraftKings. He’s coming off a mediocre performance last week vs. the Patriots, but that is expected when you lose a game by 45 points. He received just eight carries in that contest and was unable to make up for it with his pass game production.
Still, Ekeler has been highly involved since returning from injury two weeks ago. He’s commanded 25 total targets over just two games, which is an elite mark for a running back. If he can get a few additional carries this week and possibly find the end zone, he could be looking at a massive fantasy performance.
Wide Receiver
Top Ceiling: Davante Adams @ DET — $9,300 on DraftKings, $9,600 on FanDuel
Another week, another monster fantasy outing for Adams. He has been the safest investment in fantasy recently given his elite combination of volume and touchdown upside. He’s now scored in seven straight games – including multiple touchdowns in three of them – and he’s averaged 8.7 receptions and 110.9 yards per game over that time frame. He’s essentially producing like a high-end fantasy RB on a weekly basis, which is something that just isn’t supposed to happen at the WR position.
There’s no reason to expect him to stop scoring this week in a smash spot vs. the Lions. They currently rank dead last in defensive DVOA, including just 29th vs. the pass. Adams torched the Lions in their first meeting this season, finishing with 14 catches for 156 yards and two touchdowns. The Lions secondary is also banged up, with rookie first-rounder Jeff Okudah currently questionable to suit up. Adams is expensive across the industry, but he still stands out as one of the best plays on the slate.
Top Value: Breshad Perriman @ SEA — $3,900 on DraftKings, $5,800 on FanDuel
Perriman is a much better value this week on DraftKings, but he has the potential to return value across the industry. The Jets have already ruled out Denzel Mims for this contest, and Jamison Crowder is questionable after picking up an injury at practice on Thursday. The Jets have no reason to try and win football games at the moment, so it wouldn’t be surprising if Crowder was ultimately ruled out.
That would leave Perriman as the clear top option in their passing game vs. the Seahawks. The Jets haven’t provided a ton of value offensively this season, but they will likely have no choice but to throw the ball a ton this week. As long as Seattle doesn’t take the week off, the Jets will likely be trailing for the duration of this contest. Overall, Perriman leads the position in projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Top Ownership: Curtis Samuel vs. DEN — $5,200 on DraftKings, $5,900 on FanDuel
The Panthers receiving corps is very much in flux at the moment. They started by placing both Samuel and D.J. Moore on the reserve/COVID-19 list earlier this week, but Samuel has since been activated. Moore remains out for the time being, but it’s possible that he too could be activated before game time.
Expect Samuel and Robby Anderson to be popular options if Moore is ruled out. Both players have been solid fantasy producers with Moore in the lineup recently, and they would obviously get a boost if he’s unavailable. They’re popping as the top ownership plays in the midrange this week, and guys like Adams, Tyreek Hill, and D.K. Metcalf are expected to be popular at the top of the pricing spectrum.
Tight End
Top Ceiling: Travis Kelce @ MIA — $7,400 on DraftKings, $8,200 on FanDuel
Kelce is going to occupy this spot any time he’s on the main slate. He’s been absolutely rolling recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in seven of his past eight games. He’s been even better over his past five games, scoring at least 20.9 FanDuel points in four of those contests.
Tight end has been a bit of a dumpster fire this year, so paying up for the stud production of Kelce is always a viable strategy. His matchup vs. the Dolphins isn’t ideal, but Kelce still owns the top matchup edge at the position according to Pro Football Focus.
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Top Value: Logan Thomas @ SF — $3,300 on DraftKings, $5,200 on FanDuel
Rostering Thomas this week feels a bit like chasing points, but it’s hard to argue against him at his current price on DraftKings. He saw a big bump in production last week with Gibson out of the lineup, finishing with nine catches, 98 yards and a touchdown. He has seen decent volume at the tight end position all season, but the nine catches more than doubled his previous season high of four. Expect him to be heavily involved this week vs. the 49ers.
Top Ownership: Darren Waller vs. IND — $6,800 on DraftKings, $7,100 on FanDuel
Kelce is expected to be the highest-owned TE across the industry this week, and Thomas should also be a popular value option. Waller could be a bit overlooked on DraftKings since he’s just $600 cheaper than Kelce, but he should command decent ownership on FanDuel.
Waller is coming off a monster performance vs. the Jets last week, finishing with 13 catches, 200 yards, and two touchdowns. He has a much tougher matchup this week vs. the Colts, but he remains the focal point of the Raiders passing attack. He’s the only TE who can match Kelce’s ceiling at this point, and he does come with a slight discount.
