NFL Week 14 features a Thursday Night Football matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and New England Patriots starting at 8:20 p.m. ET.
If you’re unfamiliar with the single-game NFL DFS format, it differs a bit on DraftKings and FanDuel. On DraftKings, you have one “captain” spot and five flexes. The captain will score 1.5x fantasy points, but he also costs 1.5x salary. That means if you want to roster Jared Goff at captain and take advantage of the scoring boost, you’ll have to pay $16,500 as opposed to $11,000.
FanDuel’s single-game format features one “MVP” spot and four flexes. The MVP also scores 1.5x fantasy points, but he doesn’t cost any additional salary. That takes away a bit of the strategy and makes the goal simple: get your highest-scoring player in the MVP spot.
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Studs
Tonight’s game is expected to be competitive but low scoring. The Rams are favored by 4.5 points at home, but the total sits at only 44.0 points. That means there isn’t a ton to separate these two teams from a Vegas perspective.
Goff is the most expensive player on this slate, and he’s coming off a solid performance vs. the Cardinals in his last outing. He finished with 27.14 DraftKings points thanks to 351 passing yards, one passing touchdown, and one rushing touchdown.
This matchup vs. the Patriots is an interesting one for Goff. They have struggled defensively this season – they rank just 21st in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA – but they have played much better recently. They’ve held three of their past four opponents to 17 points or fewer, including a shutout vs. the Chargers last week.
The Patriots’ offensive style also hurts Goff’s fantasy value. The Patriots are one of the most run-heavy teams in the league, and they also rank just 21st in neutral pace. Add it all up, and Goff owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -4.8 on DraftKings.
Goff still leads all players in our NFL Models in terms of ceiling and median projection, but he carries some risk at this price tag.
On the other side, Cam Newton is the most expensive player for the Patriots. Cam has had some solid games this season, but his production has been hit-or-miss recently. He’s logged 84 passing yards or fewer in each of his past two games, and it’s hard to return value with such limited passing volume.
Of course, Cam is one of the few QBs who can actually do it. He still managed to post a positive Plus/Minus in last game thanks to 48 rushing yards and two rushing TDs.
Cam has arguably the worst pure matchup on the slate – he owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -5.4 on DraftKings – but QBs are always going to garner heavy attention in the single-game format. It should be noted that Cam is listed as questionable for this contest, but he is 100% going to start vs. the Rams.
The only other stud targets in this contest are Goff’s two favorite pass catchers. Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods handle the majority of the receiving opportunities for the Rams, and both players have been highly involved recently. Kupp leads the team in targets, receptions, and receiving yards this season, while Woods leads the team with five receiving touchdowns.
Kupp has the clear edge in individual matchup in this contest. He plays almost exclusively in the slot, which sets up a matchup vs. Jonathan Jones. Jones is a solid cornerback, but it’s a matchup that Kupp can definitely win: Pro Football Focus gives him an 18% edge.
On the other hand, Woods is expected to be shadowed by Stephon Gilmore. Gilmore hasn’t had a particularly dominant season, but he’s elevated his level of play recently. He’s coming off one of his best games of the season last week vs. the Chargers, allowing just two catches for 27 yards on six targets. Gilmore is still capable of putting the clamps on anyone, so expect Woods’ volume to be down a bit in this matchup.
Midrange
This price range is headlined by the running backs. It starts with Damien Harris, who has emerged as the Patriots’ preferred ball carrier this season. He’s seen double-digit carries in eight of nine games since returning from injury, including 16 carries for 80 yards last week.
That said, his fantasy production is very touchdown dependent at this price range. He provides virtually no production in the passing game, so he needs to eclipse 100 yards and/or score a touchdown to hit his ceiling. That’s a tough ask vs. the Rams, who rank ninth in rush defense DVOA.
Things are a little more crowded in the Rams’ backfield. Darrell Henderson has served as their lead back for most of the season, but it appears as though it’s Cam Akers’ time to shine. Akers finished with 21 rushing attempts last week compared to just three for Henderson and three for Malcolm Brown. Akers wasn’t all that efficient with his carries – he racked up just 72 rushing yards – but he was able to find the end zone.
The Rams invested a second-round draft pick in Akers last year, so it’s not surprising that he has emerged as their lead back. The bigger surprise is that it took this long. He check a lot of the boxes that you’re looking for in a RB prospect – good speed and athleticism, excellent college production – so expect him to continue to carry the load moving forward.
Jakobi Meyers had a stretch where he was commanding a massive target share for the Patriots, but his production has declined recently. However, that has more to do with the Patriots’ offensive philosophy than Meyers. He’s still played on at least 94% of their offensive snaps in five of his past six games, and he’s finished with six targets in each of his past two. In other words, Meyers is still the WR1 for the Patriots, but that role doesn’t have any consistent value when his starting QB has thrown for less than 100 yards in back-to-back weeks.
James White has been priced up a bit recently thanks to some solid performances, but it’s tough to trust him. He finished with six catches three weeks ago vs. the Texans and scored two rushing touchdowns vs. the Cardinals. Both of those performances look like outliers compared to the rest of his game log. He came crashing back to reality last week vs. the Chargers, so I think he’s overpriced at the moment.
Josh Reynolds has quietly had an excellent season for the Rams, but his playing time fell off a cliff last week. He went from playing on at least 80% of the Rams’ offensive snaps between Weeks 8 and 12 – including a season-high 98% vs. the 49ers – but that number dropped to just 45% last week. That unsurprisingly had a big effect on his fantasy value, and he finished with just one catch for 21 yards. The Rams have plenty of pass catching options, so it’s hard to expect much of a bounce back vs. the Patriots.
Tyler Higbee is one of those options, and he’s seen a reliable workload this season. He’s seen at least four targets in five of his past six games, but a lack of touchdowns his capped his fantasy value. He has a good chance of posting a positive Plus/Minus if he finds the end zone – which he was able to do last week – but that doesn’t give him a ton of outs towards fantasy relevance. He’s a much more appealing option on FanDuel at just $8,000.
Sony Michel rounds out this price range, and he finished with 10 carries last week vs. the Chargers. That said, it’s hard to take that performance seriously given that the Patriots won that game by 45 points. In a more competitive contest, I doubt he sees anywhere near the same volume.
Quick Hits
- Kickers and Defenses – These options are always in play in the single-game format. They could all carry more value than usual given the potential low-scoring nature of this contest.
- Gerald Everett: $3,400 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel – The Rams employed plenty of two-TE sets last week, which makes Everett an interesting option vs. the Patriots. He played on 73% of the offensive plays last week and finished with seven targets.
- Van Jefferson: $2,600 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel – Jefferson is another player whose snap count is on the rise for the Rams. He played on a season-high 49% of their offensive snaps last week, and his five targets were also tied for his most of the year. He was another second-round pick for the Rams last year, so it’s definitely possible that he’s passed Reynolds on the depth chart.
- Malcolm Brown: $2,400 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel – You never know what to expect with the Rams’ backfield, but it appears that Brown’s days of fantasy relevance are over. He played on just 16% of the offensive snaps last week and saw just three carries for the third straight week.
- N’Keal Harry: $1,800 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel – Harry has operated as the Pats No. 3 receiving option recently, and his size makes him a prime red zone target for Newton. He has appeal at this salary, particularly on FanDuel.
- Ryan Izzo: $1,400 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel – Izzo plays a ton of snaps for a player in this price range, but that hasn’t led to much fantasy production this season.
- Damiere Byrd: $800 on DraftKings, $10,000 on FanDuel – I imagine that DraftKings forgot to tack an extra “0” onto Byrd’s price tag this week. That’s the only logical explanation for his current salary. He continues to play on most of the Patriots’ snaps and led the team with seven targets just two weeks ago. He’s close to a lock at this salary.
