NFL Week 13 features a Monday Night Football doubleheader starting at 5 p.m. ET.
New NFL DFS Trial Offer: Try our new football subscription for $4.95 and get access to our industry-leading tools and projections.
Quarterback
Stud
Josh Allen is the most expensive player at quarterback, and he’s put together a strong fantasy season. He’s averaged the fifth-most fantasy points per game among all quarterbacks with at least six starts this season, thanks to his elite combination of rushing and passing production. He’s averaged 275.3 passing yards per game with 22 passing touchdowns, and he’s also added in six touchdowns with his legs. Add it all up, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.81 through his first 11 starts on DraftKings.
That said, his matchup against the 49ers isn’t ideal. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.5 on DraftKings, and the Bills’ implied team total of 23.0 is well below their season average of 27.2.
Allen still leads the position in median, ceiling, and floor projections in our NFL Models, but he carries more risk than usual.
Value
Nick Mullens has taken over as the 49ers’ starting QB following the injury to Jimmy Garopolo, but he hasn’t exactly thrived in that situation. He’s scored 13.64 DraftKings points or fewer in each of his past three games, resulting in a negative Plus/Minus in all three contests.
Perhaps a matchup with the Bills will get him on track. They have been a fantastic fantasy matchup for quarterbacks this season, giving Mullens an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.4 on DraftKings. That is easily the top mark at the position.
Quick Hits
Ben Roethlisberger is currently listed as questionable, but he is tentatively expected to suit up vs. the Washington Football Team. The Steelers have become one of the most pass-heavy teams in the league, and Roethlisberger has thrown at least 46 times in each of his past three games. They use the short pass instead of a traditional running game, and they will likely employ that strategy again with James Conner out of the lineup.
Alex Smith rounds out the position, and he’s the toughest to make a case for. He doesn’t need to do much to pay off his current salary, but the Steelers represent one of the toughest matchups in football. They excel at rushing the passer, giving Smith an Opponent Plus/Minus of -5.3.
Running Back
Stud
The stud options are pretty limited at the RB position this week. Antonio Gibson is the only player priced above $5,800 on DraftKings, and he’s been one of the most reliable contributors in fantasy recently. He’s scored a touchdown in five straight games, and he’s unsurprisingly posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of those games. That includes a massive performance last week against the Cowboys in which he finished with 39.6 DraftKings points thanks to 115 yards and three touchdowns.
Perhaps more importantly, he’s also started to grab a larger share of the receiving work out of the Washington backfield. J.D. McKissic has handled those responsibilities for most of the year, but Gibson saw seven targets last week compared to just two for McKissic. If he can add that receiving role to his rushing production, he has the potential to be one of the best fantasy backs in the league.
Of course, this may not be the best week for him. The Steelers are just as good against the run as they are against the pass, ranking third in Football Outsiders’ rush defense DVOA. Washington is also seven-point underdogs in this matchup, so Gibson has less touchdown upside than usual.
Value
Benny Snell has the potential to be the highest-scoring RB on tonight’s slate. He handled most of the rushing attempts last week with Conner out of the lineup, and he finished with 60 rushing yards on 16 carries. He also saw some work as a receiver — he finished with three catches for 33 yards on four targets — and had five opportunities in the red zone.
The Vegas data also points to Snell being a strong option. Being a large favorite typically correlates well with fantasy scoring at the RB position, and no one is a bigger favorite on today’s slate than the Steelers.
Quick Hits
The Bills have a pair of viable fantasy RBs in Zack Moss and Devin Singletary. They split the workload virtually down the middle last week: Moss finished with nine rushing attempts and two targets, while Singletary finished with 11 rushing attempts and three targets. Singletary is slightly cheaper on this slate, but Moss has more upside around the goal line.
Raheem Mostert is the most expensive player at the position at $7,100 on FanDuel, but he’s much more reasonable at $5,800 on DraftKings. He was highly involved last week in his first game back from an extended injury, finishing with 16 carries for 43 yards and a touchdown. He has the best matchup at the position given his Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.1.
[Play NFL DFS? Access Our Industry-Leading Tools & Projections For Just $4.95]
Wide Receiver
Stud
Stefon Diggs has thrived in his first year with the Bills. He’s blossomed into Allen’s favorite target, logging at least eight targets in each of his past seven games. That has unsurprisingly translated into fantasy production, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of those seven games.
Diggs is coming off a rare poor game in his last outing, and he’s facing another difficult matchup vs. the 49ers. They have one of the top cornerback duos in the league in Richard Sherman and Jason Verrett, and Diggs could struggle when matched up with those players. The Bills can move Diggs to the slot to try and avoid those players — he’s played approximately 33% of his snaps there this season — but he played just nine of 60 snaps in the slot last week.
Value
Cole Beasley is the guy who handles most of the slot work for the Bills, and he stands out as one of the best values at the position. He leads all WRs in our Models in terms of projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
He’s been a strong value for most of the season, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.98 on DraftKings, and his role should only increase with John Brown on IR. He can definitely take advantage of his matchup against Emmanuel Moseley in the slot, who owns a Pro Football Focus grade of just 57.0 this season.
Quick Hits
The Steelers’ elite trio of WRs are obviously in play on this slate. The harder part is actually choosing between them. Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, and JuJu Smith-Schuster have all had big games this season, so picking the correct player is easier said than done. Johnson offers the safest floor thanks to his massive target share, but Claypool might have more upside given his ability to score touchdowns.
Most WRs need to accumulate air yards to have big fantasy performances, but Deebo Samuel is not most WRs. He finished with 11 catches and 133 yards last week, and he racked up 136 yards after the catch. You read that correctly. His 11 catches resulted in -3 yards before the catch and 136 after. The 49ers’ willingness to design plays to get the ball in his hands gives him a solid floor and ceiling.
Tight End
Stud
There are few very stud TEs playing football in 2020, and none of them are available on this slate. Eric Ebron is the closest thing to a stud, and he’s priced at just $4,400 on DraftKings.
The Steelers’ increased passing volume has benefitted Ebron just as much as the wide receivers in Pittsburgh, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games on DraftKings. He finished with a season-high 11 targets last week and unsurprisingly leads the position in median and ceiling projection.
Value
Jordan Reed has taken over the TE responsibilities in San Francisco with George Kittle out of the lineup. He’s not playing on a ton of snaps — which is probably smart given his injury history — but he’s been involved in the passing game when on the field. He’s seen at least six targets in each of his past two games, which is solid volume considering his price tag.
Fast Break
Logan Thomas has played a ton of snaps for Washington this season, but his production has been hit or miss. That’s not exactly surprising given the Washington QB play, but it does give him a lower floor than Reed. That said, his ceiling is comparable. He’s gone for double-digit fantasy points in six of his past 10 games, including 13.42 last week against the Cowboys.
