At FantasyLabs, we believe that we have the best tools and data available to those who play daily fantasy sports. We also realize that these tools and data are only as beneficial as our ability to communicate their functionality and worth.

With this in mind, our Trend of the Day series features articles that walk subscribers through an important trend each weekday, created with our Trends tool. Also, shortly after you create a trend, you will be able to see it under the “My Trends” column in our Player Models.

MLB Trend of the Day: Why You Should Pay Attention to Pitch Counts

Pitch counts have become increasingly important in the last decade for nearly all pitchers, regardless of age and skill. In the MLB, managers typically exercise caution and avoid overworking their pitchers, especially when they are $175-million investments. While pitch counts are more prevalent lately, there is still a fairly wide range of average pitches thrown among pitchers. As DFS players, we should be aware of these differences and look to utilize them in an advantageous way.

There are several reasons a pitcher may be on a pitch count. Proper strength and conditioning and no history of severe injuries can lead to a longer leash from managers. As a pitcher progresses deeper into games his velocity can decrease or opponents can start to figure out the his repertoire and patterns. Other pitchers can be rehabilitating a prior injury, leading to a strict limit no matter the amount of innings pitched.

This Story is Verified

I can personally relate to the importance of a pitch count, as I decided to be a hero last summer and throw a 175-pitch complete game after not picking up a baseball in years. I got our beloved team the only win of the season — at the expense of my UCL — after insisting that my catcher give me at least three sliders per at-bat.

Everyone at FantasyLabs knows that I do 98 percent of my work from bed. [Editor’s Note: That explains Jay’s low Bargain Rating on every site.]

As a result of my sedentary lifestyle, you can only imagine my nonexistent stretching regime leading up to the game. While I dream about Tommy John surgery on a nightly basis, I look at my former team in disgust, as they are off to a rather frustrating start to the season:

 

Anyway, let’s go ahead and gather some data that will help us understand the value of pitchers based on different pitch counts.

I separated every qualified starting pitcher this season into three tiers:

• Pitchers who average over 100 pitches per game
• Pitchers who average 95-99 pitches per game
• Pitchers who average under 95 pitches per game.

Compared to me, all of these guys are wimps.

Step 1: Time Filter > MLB Season > 2016

I will use the 2016 season for all steps because I am looking only at starting pitchers based on average pitches per game for this season.

Step 2A: Player Filters > Player Name > Add all pitchers who average over 100 pitches per game

 

Pitchers that average over 100 pitches per game this season have a Plus/Minus of +2.90, with 63.3 percent Consistency. It’s not a huge surprise to see pitchers who average a lot of pitches per game have a strong Plus/Minus, but for every Clayton Kershaw or Chris Sale there is a Rick Porcello, Steven Wright, or Hector Santiago.

Let’s create the same trend for our second tier of pitchers.

Step 2B: Player Filters > Player Name > Add all pitchers who average 95-99 pitches per game

 

As you can see, there is a huge drop off in Plus/Minus and Consistency, leading to an unappealing +0.56 Plus/Minus for all qualified pitchers this season. This tier includes pitchers such as Gerrit Cole and Matt Harvey, both of whom having disappointing seasons.

Finally, here’s the trend on pitchers who average fewer than 95 pitches per game.

Step 2C: Filter > Player Filters > Player Name > Add all pitchers who average under 95 pitches per game

 

Pitchers who average under 95 pitches per game this season have an abysmal Plus/Minus of -1.15. While this tier does include some mediocre pitchers, it also has Zack Greinke, Corey Kluber, and Francisco Liriano.

Let Me Tell You What You’re Thinking

Now, you might be thinking this: “What a stupid waste of an article. Obviously the more pitches a pitcher throws, the more fantasy points he gets.”

Trust me, I thought the exact same thing about halfway through writing the article. I was even worried about waking up to learn that I got fired for doing such a sh*tty job, which would force me to return to my desolate life of cereal-eating contests, eating spoonful after spoonful of Cinnamon Toast Crunch in record-breaking time.

However, each tier of pitchers is priced appropriately and has an average expected points higher than the previous tier. Pitchers who average a higher amount of pitches should have more average expected points — and they still exceed those expected points. Even though they are more expensive, the higher-priced pitchers who average over 100 pitches per game provide the best value.

Of course, there can be disparity on both sides of the spectrum. Greg Maddux could throw a complete game in 13 pitches, while Rich Harden could throw 144 pitches to one batter. Pitch count is not the be-all and end-all for DFS starting pitchers, but it’s better to have guys who average a lot of pitches than not to have them.

The Big Payoff!

In case you are wondering, here are the three pitchers with the highest average pitch counts in Wednesday’s slate:

• Jordan Zimmerman
• Max Scherzer
• Madison Bumgarner

Good luck!