With the wind expecting to pick up in the afternoon on Thursday, a morning stack may be a wise strategy for the Bermuda Championship Round 1 showdown slate.
Port Royal Golf Club is a short course that will keep players of every skill set relevant this week, so I am targeting good approach players and great putters, particularly on Bermudagrass.
Strokes gained in Round 1 (past 24 rounds)
-
- Harold Varner III ($10,000)
- Cameron Tringale ($9,300)
- Brendon Todd ($10,000)
- Cameron Percy ($7,300)
- Chase Seiffert ($6,900)
- Patrick Rodgers ($7,900)
- Scott Stallings ($7,800)
- Wyndham Clark ($7,200)
- Adam Schenk ($8,400)
- Rob Oppenheim ($7,300)
New NFL DFS Trial Offer: Try our new football subscription for $4.95 and get access to our industry-leading tools and projections.
Top-Tier Targets
Brendon Todd ($10,200): Todd was absolutely dominant in his start here last year. Everything he does well is a perfect fit for Port Royal. I see Todd as a safe high-floor play for the showdown slate. I also love that he has an early tee time and will likely get the better weather draw.
Charley Hoffman ($9,400): Hoffman is known for getting off to hot starts. His first-round track record, solid current form and excellent history on Bermudagrass greens make him a high-upside target for a first-round showdown.
Henrik Stenson ($9,100): Stenson is being overlooked this week due to his subpar form coming into the week. He missed the cut at the Sanderson Farms due to losing 3.8 strokes putting despite gaining strokes in every other category. Quite simply, Stenson is probably the best golfer in this field. I made the mistake of not playing Sergio when he won in Jackson, and this situation feels like a similar spot.
Mid-Tier Targets
Peter Malnati ($9,000): Malnati is my pick to win this week. He is coming into the week scorching hot and is one of the top long-term putters in this field. He is excellent on Bermudagrass and has some success on the coast. I anticipate Malnati riding his current form into an exceptional opening round.
Justin Suh ($8,900): While relatively new on the scene and a few steps behind the stars in his age group, Suh is absolutely a top-tier talent. With two top-15 finishes in as many starts, we are starting to see Suh’s potential come to fruition. In a weak field, this is a great spot to fire up a high-upside talent in Bermuda.
Wesley Bryan ($8,600): Since Wes has returned from his medical exemption, he’s been playing some excellent golf. In his past 24 rounds, Bryan is first in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. His outstanding iron play has led to some strong finishes, including a 12th-place in his most recent start at the Sanderson Farms. While Bryan isn’t great off the tee, he has shown some signs of improvement and gained strokes in that department in four consecutive tournaments. Wes is also a good putter historically, but the flat stick has been cold for him of late. If he can get his putter rolling on the slow greens at Port Royal, there’s no reason he can’t contend this week.
Low-End Targets
Chase Seiffert ($6,900): Seiffert gains strokes in three categories that I expect to be important this week: Fairways Gained, SG: Windy AF, and Par 3: 225+. I think he has some value in the $6K range and also bet him to win and finish in the top five. In a week when anyone can win, I like to look for cheaper guys who can do a few important things well.
Camilo Villegas ($6,700): Villegas is my sleeper of the week, and I’ve talked myself into thinking he has a shot at actually winning this tournament. Villegas has been playing some solid golf since his return. He has gained on approach in his past two starts, including an impressive 7.3 at the Sanderson Farms. Bermuda is his best statistical putting surface, and he gains strokes on the field in windy conditions. With his two most recent PGA TOUR victories coming on fairly short courses that feature Bermudagrass greens (Honda 2010, Wyndham 2014), this is a nice spot to play him.
Andrew Putnam ($6,400): The Bermuda Championship may end up being a putting contest. Putnam is one of the best putters in the world, and his lack of distance off the tee won’t hurt him too much here. Putnam will also have some baby swag this week. His son, Paxley, was born five days ago, and I think he has a chance to make this week even more memorable with a good performance in Bermuda.
