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Week 8 NFL Fantasy RB Breakdown: Kareem Hunt, Grey Lady

The Week 8 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Nov. 1, at 1 p.m. ET.

In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically our FantasyLabs Models. While the Models are built for daily contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.

New NFL DFS Trial Offer: Try our new football subscription for $4.95 and get access to our industry-leading tools and projections.

Top Running Backs in the FantasyLabs Models

There are four running backs atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek), Ryan Hodge and I have constructed.

Here’s where they place within our Week 8 fantasy football rankings (as of Wednesday afternoon).

  • Kareem Hunt: No. 2 (PPR) | No. 2 (Half PPR) | No. 2 (Standard)
  • Josh Jacobs: No. 5 (PPR) | No. 5 (Half PPR) | No. 5 (Standard)
  • Jonathan Taylor: No. 7 (PPR) | No. 6 (Half PPR) | No. 6 (Standard)
  • Carlos Hyde: No. 21 (PPR) | No. 21 (Half PPR) | No. 20 (Standard)

FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns

Check in throughout the week as I publish the rest of the positional breakdowns.

For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network. For updates, see our FantasyLabs News Feed.

Odds as of Wednesday afternoon and via DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus today.

Kareem Hunt: Cleveland Browns (-3) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (53 Over/Under)

There’s a little bit of a Grey Lady dynamic with Hunt: “If you have to ask, you’ll never know. If you know, you need only ask.”

There are no questions about who Hunt is on the field: We know he’s one of the best overall backs in the league based on what he did in 2017-18 with the Chiefs.

The only question entering the year was whether he’d get opportunities to emerge in this backfield.

With the Week 4 injury to lead back Nick Chubb (knee, IR), that question has been answered — and yet the answer’s details have disappointed.

Even though Hunt has gotten opportunities, he hasn’t produced as hoped for over the past month.

  • Week 4 (at DAL): 19.1 PPR, 19.1 STD | 11-71-2 | 0-0-0, zero targets
  • Week 5 (vs. IND): 18.3 PPR, 15.3 STD | 20-72-0 | 3-21-1, four targets
  • Week 6 (at PIT): 7.7 PPR, 5.7 STD | 13-40-0 | 2-17-0, three targets
  • Week 7 (at CIN): 19.2 PPR, 16.2 STD | 18-76-0 | 3-26-1, four targets

But his recent performance deserves contextualization.

Hunt entered Week 4 with a groin injury that limited him in practice, and the Browns had a large lead for most of the game, so they could afford to lighten the load on Hunt by giving work to backups D’Ernest Johnson and Dontrell Hilliard.

In Week 5, Hunt sat out most of the fourth quarter in a two-score game with a leg cramp.

And in Week 6 he was simply rendered needless in the second half of a 38-7 loss to the Steelers.

But in Week 7 he was a top-six back, and in three of his Chubb-less/limited games he has been no worse than a high-end fantasy RB2 (per RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).

Hunt hasn’t been great, but he has been very good.

And he could be great this week: Hunt’s matchup with the Raiders is highly exploitable.

The Raiders are No. 29 with an 8.6% rush-defense DVOA (per Football Outsiders), and opposing backfields are No. 3 with 25.4 fantasy points per game on 120-584-8 rushing and 42-380-1 receiving.

And you know I’m betting on the Browns this week.

As home favorites, the Browns could rely heavily on the running game: They are No. 2 in the league with a 49.3% rush-play rate. And although it’s generally better to attack through the air than the ground, the Browns have the clear edge over the Raiders in run blocking vs. run defense (per Pro Football Focus and Football Outsiders).

  • Browns Run Blocking: 78.5 PFF Grade (1st) | 4.89 Adj. Line Yards (3rd)
  • Raiders Run Defense: 53.9 PFF Grade (22nd) |  4.73 Adj. Line Yards (23rd)

The Browns should be able to push the Raiders around, and it’s just an added bonus that non-divisional opponents are 16-9 against the spread (ATS) against the Raiders under head coach Jon Gruden, putting up a +6.46-point margin and 25.5% return on investment (ROI, per our Bet Labs database).



You can bet on this game at DraftKings.

Since Week 5, Hunt is No. 6 in the league with a 36% share of his team’s total opportunities (carries plus touches) in his three full games without Chubb (per RotoViz NFL Player Statistical Summary).

In six games, the Raiders have allowed a league-high seven fantasy RB1/2 performances. This is a flow-chart matchup.

Hunt is ready to destroy the diadem. This week, you need only ask.

Hunt is a top-three must-play RB1 in season-long leagues and the No. 1 running back in the Bales, Raybon, SportsGeek, Hodge and Freedman Models for DraftKings, where he has a position-high nine Pro Trends.

Josh Jacobs: Las Vegas Raiders (+3) at Cleveland Browns (53 O/U)

The Browns have a middle-of-the-road rush defense (-8.1% DVOA, No. 19), so there’s nothing especially notable about Jacobs’ matchup.

What makes him stand out is the spread: He’s not a prohibitive underdog.

As Hayden Winks points out in his Week 8 Usage Models, Jacobs is a script-dependent back. He has a 45% touch share when leading but 18% touch share when trailing.

Given the relatively close spread, the Raiders should be able to stay in this game for the duration of the contest, and that’s likely to result in an enhanced workload for Jacobs.

And this line is moving toward the Raiders: It opened at +3.5 and is now at +2.5 at some sportsbooks. Although I prefer the Browns, there’s a definite case to be made that the Raiders are the sharp side. If we look at the moneyline action on the game so far, we see that 41% of the bets but 87% of the money is backing the Raiders, which is an extremely bullish market position (per our Action Network Odds page).

And if the Raiders win that would be massive for Jacobs, who has had notable win/loss splits since entering the league (per RotoViz Game Splits App).

Because of his flow-based inconsistency, Jacobs has alienated some fantasy investors, who are still smarting from last week’s 10-17-0 rushing nonperformance.

On the one hand, I get it. On the other hand, I don’t get it at all.

Are people so flush with backfield production that they can afford to be annoyed with a 22-year-old big-bodied second-year first-rounder who has 1,832 yards from scrimmage in 19 games?

Who do these people think they are? Shawn Siegele?

For the season, Jacobs is No. 3 with a 38% opportunity share and No. 8 with 17.0 expected fantasy points per game. With the exception of last week, Jacobs has had 18 touches in every game. He is getting elite usage, and this looks like a spot in which he could translate touches into touchdowns.

Jacobs is a solid fantasy RB1 in season-long leagues and the No. 1 back in the CSURAM88 and Koerner Models for DraftKings.

Jonathan Taylor: Indianapolis Colts (-3) at Detroit Lions (50.5 O/U)

If I had told you before the season started that incumbent Marlon Mack (Achilles, IR) would suffer a season-ending injury in the first half of Week 1, you would have drafted Taylor in Round 1 and bet a fortune on him to win Offensive Rookie of the Year and lead the league in rushing.

Alas, no such luck.

Even with Mack’s injury, Taylor has been a fantasy RB1 in just one game.

Taylor has looked rather ordinary for much of his rookie campaign.

  • Week 1 (at JAX): 14.9 PPR, 8.9 STD | 9-22-0 | 6-67-0, six targets
  • Week 2 (vs. MIN): 19.0 PPR, 17.0 STD | 26-101-1 | 2-9-0, two targets
  • Week 3 (vs. NYJ): 13.2 PPR, 12.2 STD | 13-59-1 | 1-3-0, one target
  • Week 4 (at CHI): 8.9 PPR, 7.9 STD | 17-68-0 | 1-11-0, one target
  • Week 5 (at CLE): 15.4 PPR, 13.4 STD | 12-57-1 | 2-17-0, three targets
  • Week 6 (vs. CIN): 15.5 PPR, 11.5 STD | 12-60-0 | 4-55-0, four targets

Among qualified backs, he’s No. 52 with just 2.17 yards after contact per carry, and he hasn’t seen nearly the rushing volume we would’ve expected given his athleticism (4.39-second 40-yard dash), draft capital (No. 41 pick overall) and prolific production at Wisconsin.

  • 2017 (14 games): 299-1,977-13 rushing | 8-95-0 receiving
  • 2018 (13 games): 307-2,194-16 rushing | 8-60-0 receiving
  • 2019 (14 games): 320-2,003-21 rushing | 26-252-5 receiving

But there are reasons to be optimistic about him for Week 8 and beyond.

First, he has been far better as a receiver than anyone would have anticipated. In college, Taylor had -0.07 expected points per target for his career (per Sports Info Solutions). On 50 catchable targets, he had eight drops. He was a clear net negative in the passing game.

But in the NFL he is No. 6 at the position with 1.98 yards per route. He hasn’t been a consistent presence in the passing game, but when targeted he has produced, averaging 9.5 yards per target with a 94.1% catch rate.

Taylor might have a true three-down skill set.

Also, early-down supplement Jordan Wilkins (calf) has just two carries over the past two games after seeing nine carries in each of Weeks 2-4. He has clearly been hampered by an injury, and even though the Colts are coming off the bye, Wilkins is still far from certain to be healthy.

If Wilkins is limited or out, Taylor could be in line for a massive rushing role if he gets a positive game script.

And there’s the matchup: Opposing backfields are No. 4 against the Lions with 25.1 fantasy points per game on 143-685-7 rushing and 28-258-2 receiving.

A high-floor player, Taylor might finally explore the heights of his ceiling with this matchup.

A bye-week RB1 in season-long leagues, Taylor is the No. 1 running back in the Bales, Raybon, SportsGeek and Hodge Models for DFS.

Carlos Hyde: Seattle Seahawks (-3) vs. San Francisco 49ers (53.5 O/U)

Starter Chris Carson (foot) is expected to miss Week 8, and No. 3 back Travis Homer (knee) suffered an injury last week, so Hyde could have a massive workload this weekend.

But of course it’s never that simple: Hyde (hamstring) is dealing with some soft-tissue tightness, and head coach Pete Carroll has said he’s unsure of his status.

Right now, Hyde still seems likely to play, but be sure to monitor his practice reports throughout the week. If he doesn’t get in a full practice session by Friday, we will probably lower his projections and drop him in the rankings.

After Carson exited Week 7 early, Hyde was a serviceable in-game replacement, putting up 15-68-1 rushing and 3-8-0 receiving on four targets against the Cardinals. While catching the ball is certainly not Hyde’s strength, it was encouraging to see him used so much as a receiver.

An early-down between-the-tackles fall-forward grinder, Hyde is about as unsexy as a running back can get, but he’s also an established veteran with three 1,100-yard scrimmage campaigns over the past four years.

Since his 2016 breakout season, Hyde has been a competent even if uninspiring producer when getting at least the 15 carries he got last week.

Especially in the Seahawks offense, Hyde could have an outlier-ish performance with 100 yards and multiple touchdowns as a home favorite. That’s not probable, but it’s more than possible.

It helps that he’s facing a 49ers defense that last week was without the supermajority of its starters and key contributors.

  • Edge rusher: Nick Bosa (knee, IR), Dee Ford (back, IR) and Ziggy Ansah (arm, IR)
  • Defensive tackle: Solomon Thomas (knee, IR)
  • Linebacker: Kwon Alexander (ankle)
  • Cornerback: Richard Sherman (calf, IR) and K’Waun Williams (knee/hip, IR)
  • Safety: Jaquiski Tartt (groin) and Jimmie Ward (quadricep)

That’s nine guys. NINE. And based on last week’s practice reports, there’s a significant chance that not one of these guys will return to action on Sunday.

And let’s not forget the Revenge Game angle.

Does this information matter at all? No. But will I let it impact the decisions I make?

Probably.

You gotta be just a little bit of a nonsensical degenerate sometimes.

From a betting perspective, the Seahawks are intriguing. Off a loss, quarterback Russell Wilson is 23-12-4 ATS (26.1% ROI) with a margin of +4.24 points.



You can bet on this game at FanDuel. If the Seahawks bounce back from their loss and get out to a lead, Hyde could see extended usage as a grind-the-clock runner.

Hyde is a borderline RB2/3 in season-long leagues and the No. 1 option in the CSURAM88, Koerner and Freedman Models for FanDuel, where he leads all running backs with his position-high +5.60 Projected Plus/Minus and 98% Bargain Rating.

Running Backs With Week-Winning Upside

In this section, I highlight some running backs I think will outperform expectations and whom I especially like as upside season-long and DFS tournament plays.

Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints (-4) at Chicago Bears, 43.5 O/U: In only six games, Kamara has a league-high 824 yards and seven touchdowns from scrimmage. He easily leads all running backs in our Models with his median, ceiling and floor projections.

Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans (-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (54 O/U): The Bengals are without run-stuffing defensive tackle D.J. Reader (quad, IR), and they just traded away edge defender Carlos Dunlap. Henry has averaged 21.2 DraftKings and 19.2 FanDuel points across his 21 games as a favorite over the past two-plus seasons (per our FantasyLabs Trends Tool). In quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s 16 regular-season starts with the team, over is 13-2-1 (66.9% ROI). You can bet on this game at William Hill.



For the season, Henry is No. 1 in the league with a 42% opportunity share.

Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers (-6.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings (52.5 O/U): Although Jones (calf) missed last week, he is tentatively expected to return to action this weekend. In quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ home starts, the Packers are an A-graded 55-30-3 ATS (25.8%).



Since last year, Jones is the No. 4 fantasy back with 20.7 PPR and 17.5 STD points per game.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs (-19.5) vs. New York Jets (48.5 O/U): The Chiefs have a slate-high 34.25-point implied Vegas total. Edwards-Helaire has 18-plus opportunities in every game this year but one.

James Conner, Pittsburgh Steelers (+4) at Baltimore Ravens (46.5 O/U): After his injury-impacted Week 1, Conner is 89-442-4 rushing and 13-104-0 receiving on 16 targets over the past five games. As underdogs on the moneyline, the Steelers under head coach Mike Tomlin are an A-graded 29-26 (32.4% ROI).



In his two games with at least 10 carries against defensive coordinator Don Martindale’s Ravens unit, Conner is 38-162-1 rushing and 7-56-1 receiving on nine targets.

Darrell Henderson, Los Angeles Rams (-4) at Miami Dolphins (46 O/U): His five-snap Week 1 was disappointing, but Henderson is 84-406-3 rushing and 9-109-1 receiving on 13 targets over his past six games. The Dolphins are No. 32 with a 12.7% rush-defense DVOA and No. 27 with a 15.3% pass-defense DVOA against running backs.

David Montgomery, Chicago Bears (+4) vs. New Orleans Saints (43.5 O/U): In his past four games without change-of-pace back Tarik Cohen (knee, IR), Montgomery is No. 2 at the position with an 83% snap rate and 74% market share of carries. I can’t come up with anything else good to say about him.

Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati Bengals (+6) vs. Tennessee Titans (54 O/U): In the absence of starter Joe Mixon (foot) last week, Bernard was 13-37-0 rushing and 5-59-1 receiving, and in his five games without Mixon since 2017, Bernard has balled out.

Mixon is yet to practice this week and looks unlikely to play this weekend.

Melvin Gordon, Denver Broncos (+3.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (44.5 O/U): No. 2 back Phillip Lindsay (concussion) is in the league’s protocol, so Gordon might operate as the locked-in lead back in this Revenge Game against his former team. Gordon is a more-than-viable 82-349-4 rushing and 13-57-1 receiving in five games.

D’Andre Swift, Detroit Lions (+3) vs. Indianapolis Colts (50.5 O/U): With the exception of his six-snap Week 3, Swift has impressed in limited action.

Even with his limited usage, Swift has eight-plus opportunities in each of his non-Week 3 games, and over the past two weeks he has averaged 11.5 carries and 4.5 targets per game.

Myles Gaskin, Miami Dolphins (+4) vs. Los Angeles Rams (46 O/U): The most well-rounded back on the team, Gaskin leads the backfield with 15.5 expected fantasy points per game, 82-340-1 rushing and 27-182-0 receiving. Ever since the Dolphins decided to make early-down grinder Jordan Howard a gameday inactive in Week 5, Gaskin has a position-high 41% opportunity share.

JaMycal Hasty, San Francisco 49ers (+3) at Seattle Seahawks (53.5 O/U): Teammates Raheem Mostert (ankle, IR), Tevin Coleman (knee, IR) and Jeffery Wilson (ankle, IR) are out, and veteran Jerick McKinnon had just three carries last game in a rest week. McKinnon seems likely to lead the team in carries, but HC Kyle Shanahan often splits backfield work, and Hasty had nine carries and a target in each of the past two games.

Joshua Kelley, Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) at Denver Broncos (44.5 O/U): Despite splitting snaps with first Austin Ekeler (hamstring, IR) and now Justin Jackson, Kelley has had 10-plus opportunities in each game. Coming out of the bye, last week Kelley out-touched Jackson 17-10.

Le’Veon Bell, Kansas City Chiefs (-19.5) vs. New York Jets (48.5 O/U): Searching … searching … here it is.

How all occasions do inform against me,
And spur my dull revenge! What is a man,
If his chief good and market of his time
Be but to sleep and feed? A beast, no more. …
My thoughts be bloody or be nothing worth!

That says it all.

Damien Harris, New England Patriots (+3.5) at Buffalo Bills (42.5 O/U): The Patriots have averaged just 9.3 points per game over the past month, but perhaps they will rebound against the Bills, who are No. 32 with a 37.4 PFF rush-defense grade. Harris easily leads all Pats backs with a 40% market share of carries since he returned to action in Week 4.

Adrian Peterson, Detroit Lions (+3) vs. Indianapolis Colts (50.5 O/U): The 36-year-old future Hall-of-Famer is having yet another annoyingly spry middle-aged campaign with 80-314-2 rushing and 6-50-0 receiving. Even with dynamic rookie D’Andre Swift’s recent emergence, Peterson leads the backfield with a 38% snap rate and 25% opportunity share.



Matthew Freedman is 702-562-27 (55.5%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.

The Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs, Freedman is commonly called the Oracle & the Labyrinthian.

Pictured above: Cleveland Browns running back Kareem Hunt (27)
Photo credit: Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

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The Week 8 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Nov. 1, at 1 p.m. ET.

In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically our FantasyLabs Models. While the Models are built for daily contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.

New NFL DFS Trial Offer: Try our new football subscription for $4.95 and get access to our industry-leading tools and projections.

Top Running Backs in the FantasyLabs Models

There are four running backs atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek), Ryan Hodge and I have constructed.

Here’s where they place within our Week 8 fantasy football rankings (as of Wednesday afternoon).

  • Kareem Hunt: No. 2 (PPR) | No. 2 (Half PPR) | No. 2 (Standard)
  • Josh Jacobs: No. 5 (PPR) | No. 5 (Half PPR) | No. 5 (Standard)
  • Jonathan Taylor: No. 7 (PPR) | No. 6 (Half PPR) | No. 6 (Standard)
  • Carlos Hyde: No. 21 (PPR) | No. 21 (Half PPR) | No. 20 (Standard)

FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns

Check in throughout the week as I publish the rest of the positional breakdowns.

For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network. For updates, see our FantasyLabs News Feed.

Odds as of Wednesday afternoon and via DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus today.

Kareem Hunt: Cleveland Browns (-3) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (53 Over/Under)

There’s a little bit of a Grey Lady dynamic with Hunt: “If you have to ask, you’ll never know. If you know, you need only ask.”

There are no questions about who Hunt is on the field: We know he’s one of the best overall backs in the league based on what he did in 2017-18 with the Chiefs.

The only question entering the year was whether he’d get opportunities to emerge in this backfield.

With the Week 4 injury to lead back Nick Chubb (knee, IR), that question has been answered — and yet the answer’s details have disappointed.

Even though Hunt has gotten opportunities, he hasn’t produced as hoped for over the past month.

  • Week 4 (at DAL): 19.1 PPR, 19.1 STD | 11-71-2 | 0-0-0, zero targets
  • Week 5 (vs. IND): 18.3 PPR, 15.3 STD | 20-72-0 | 3-21-1, four targets
  • Week 6 (at PIT): 7.7 PPR, 5.7 STD | 13-40-0 | 2-17-0, three targets
  • Week 7 (at CIN): 19.2 PPR, 16.2 STD | 18-76-0 | 3-26-1, four targets

But his recent performance deserves contextualization.

Hunt entered Week 4 with a groin injury that limited him in practice, and the Browns had a large lead for most of the game, so they could afford to lighten the load on Hunt by giving work to backups D’Ernest Johnson and Dontrell Hilliard.

In Week 5, Hunt sat out most of the fourth quarter in a two-score game with a leg cramp.

And in Week 6 he was simply rendered needless in the second half of a 38-7 loss to the Steelers.

But in Week 7 he was a top-six back, and in three of his Chubb-less/limited games he has been no worse than a high-end fantasy RB2 (per RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).

Hunt hasn’t been great, but he has been very good.

And he could be great this week: Hunt’s matchup with the Raiders is highly exploitable.

The Raiders are No. 29 with an 8.6% rush-defense DVOA (per Football Outsiders), and opposing backfields are No. 3 with 25.4 fantasy points per game on 120-584-8 rushing and 42-380-1 receiving.

And you know I’m betting on the Browns this week.

As home favorites, the Browns could rely heavily on the running game: They are No. 2 in the league with a 49.3% rush-play rate. And although it’s generally better to attack through the air than the ground, the Browns have the clear edge over the Raiders in run blocking vs. run defense (per Pro Football Focus and Football Outsiders).

  • Browns Run Blocking: 78.5 PFF Grade (1st) | 4.89 Adj. Line Yards (3rd)
  • Raiders Run Defense: 53.9 PFF Grade (22nd) |  4.73 Adj. Line Yards (23rd)

The Browns should be able to push the Raiders around, and it’s just an added bonus that non-divisional opponents are 16-9 against the spread (ATS) against the Raiders under head coach Jon Gruden, putting up a +6.46-point margin and 25.5% return on investment (ROI, per our Bet Labs database).



You can bet on this game at DraftKings.

Since Week 5, Hunt is No. 6 in the league with a 36% share of his team’s total opportunities (carries plus touches) in his three full games without Chubb (per RotoViz NFL Player Statistical Summary).

In six games, the Raiders have allowed a league-high seven fantasy RB1/2 performances. This is a flow-chart matchup.

Hunt is ready to destroy the diadem. This week, you need only ask.

Hunt is a top-three must-play RB1 in season-long leagues and the No. 1 running back in the Bales, Raybon, SportsGeek, Hodge and Freedman Models for DraftKings, where he has a position-high nine Pro Trends.

Josh Jacobs: Las Vegas Raiders (+3) at Cleveland Browns (53 O/U)

The Browns have a middle-of-the-road rush defense (-8.1% DVOA, No. 19), so there’s nothing especially notable about Jacobs’ matchup.

What makes him stand out is the spread: He’s not a prohibitive underdog.

As Hayden Winks points out in his Week 8 Usage Models, Jacobs is a script-dependent back. He has a 45% touch share when leading but 18% touch share when trailing.

Given the relatively close spread, the Raiders should be able to stay in this game for the duration of the contest, and that’s likely to result in an enhanced workload for Jacobs.

And this line is moving toward the Raiders: It opened at +3.5 and is now at +2.5 at some sportsbooks. Although I prefer the Browns, there’s a definite case to be made that the Raiders are the sharp side. If we look at the moneyline action on the game so far, we see that 41% of the bets but 87% of the money is backing the Raiders, which is an extremely bullish market position (per our Action Network Odds page).

And if the Raiders win that would be massive for Jacobs, who has had notable win/loss splits since entering the league (per RotoViz Game Splits App).

Because of his flow-based inconsistency, Jacobs has alienated some fantasy investors, who are still smarting from last week’s 10-17-0 rushing nonperformance.

On the one hand, I get it. On the other hand, I don’t get it at all.

Are people so flush with backfield production that they can afford to be annoyed with a 22-year-old big-bodied second-year first-rounder who has 1,832 yards from scrimmage in 19 games?

Who do these people think they are? Shawn Siegele?

For the season, Jacobs is No. 3 with a 38% opportunity share and No. 8 with 17.0 expected fantasy points per game. With the exception of last week, Jacobs has had 18 touches in every game. He is getting elite usage, and this looks like a spot in which he could translate touches into touchdowns.

Jacobs is a solid fantasy RB1 in season-long leagues and the No. 1 back in the CSURAM88 and Koerner Models for DraftKings.

Jonathan Taylor: Indianapolis Colts (-3) at Detroit Lions (50.5 O/U)

If I had told you before the season started that incumbent Marlon Mack (Achilles, IR) would suffer a season-ending injury in the first half of Week 1, you would have drafted Taylor in Round 1 and bet a fortune on him to win Offensive Rookie of the Year and lead the league in rushing.

Alas, no such luck.

Even with Mack’s injury, Taylor has been a fantasy RB1 in just one game.

Taylor has looked rather ordinary for much of his rookie campaign.

  • Week 1 (at JAX): 14.9 PPR, 8.9 STD | 9-22-0 | 6-67-0, six targets
  • Week 2 (vs. MIN): 19.0 PPR, 17.0 STD | 26-101-1 | 2-9-0, two targets
  • Week 3 (vs. NYJ): 13.2 PPR, 12.2 STD | 13-59-1 | 1-3-0, one target
  • Week 4 (at CHI): 8.9 PPR, 7.9 STD | 17-68-0 | 1-11-0, one target
  • Week 5 (at CLE): 15.4 PPR, 13.4 STD | 12-57-1 | 2-17-0, three targets
  • Week 6 (vs. CIN): 15.5 PPR, 11.5 STD | 12-60-0 | 4-55-0, four targets

Among qualified backs, he’s No. 52 with just 2.17 yards after contact per carry, and he hasn’t seen nearly the rushing volume we would’ve expected given his athleticism (4.39-second 40-yard dash), draft capital (No. 41 pick overall) and prolific production at Wisconsin.

  • 2017 (14 games): 299-1,977-13 rushing | 8-95-0 receiving
  • 2018 (13 games): 307-2,194-16 rushing | 8-60-0 receiving
  • 2019 (14 games): 320-2,003-21 rushing | 26-252-5 receiving

But there are reasons to be optimistic about him for Week 8 and beyond.

First, he has been far better as a receiver than anyone would have anticipated. In college, Taylor had -0.07 expected points per target for his career (per Sports Info Solutions). On 50 catchable targets, he had eight drops. He was a clear net negative in the passing game.

But in the NFL he is No. 6 at the position with 1.98 yards per route. He hasn’t been a consistent presence in the passing game, but when targeted he has produced, averaging 9.5 yards per target with a 94.1% catch rate.

Taylor might have a true three-down skill set.

Also, early-down supplement Jordan Wilkins (calf) has just two carries over the past two games after seeing nine carries in each of Weeks 2-4. He has clearly been hampered by an injury, and even though the Colts are coming off the bye, Wilkins is still far from certain to be healthy.

If Wilkins is limited or out, Taylor could be in line for a massive rushing role if he gets a positive game script.

And there’s the matchup: Opposing backfields are No. 4 against the Lions with 25.1 fantasy points per game on 143-685-7 rushing and 28-258-2 receiving.

A high-floor player, Taylor might finally explore the heights of his ceiling with this matchup.

A bye-week RB1 in season-long leagues, Taylor is the No. 1 running back in the Bales, Raybon, SportsGeek and Hodge Models for DFS.

Carlos Hyde: Seattle Seahawks (-3) vs. San Francisco 49ers (53.5 O/U)

Starter Chris Carson (foot) is expected to miss Week 8, and No. 3 back Travis Homer (knee) suffered an injury last week, so Hyde could have a massive workload this weekend.

But of course it’s never that simple: Hyde (hamstring) is dealing with some soft-tissue tightness, and head coach Pete Carroll has said he’s unsure of his status.

Right now, Hyde still seems likely to play, but be sure to monitor his practice reports throughout the week. If he doesn’t get in a full practice session by Friday, we will probably lower his projections and drop him in the rankings.

After Carson exited Week 7 early, Hyde was a serviceable in-game replacement, putting up 15-68-1 rushing and 3-8-0 receiving on four targets against the Cardinals. While catching the ball is certainly not Hyde’s strength, it was encouraging to see him used so much as a receiver.

An early-down between-the-tackles fall-forward grinder, Hyde is about as unsexy as a running back can get, but he’s also an established veteran with three 1,100-yard scrimmage campaigns over the past four years.

Since his 2016 breakout season, Hyde has been a competent even if uninspiring producer when getting at least the 15 carries he got last week.

Especially in the Seahawks offense, Hyde could have an outlier-ish performance with 100 yards and multiple touchdowns as a home favorite. That’s not probable, but it’s more than possible.

It helps that he’s facing a 49ers defense that last week was without the supermajority of its starters and key contributors.

  • Edge rusher: Nick Bosa (knee, IR), Dee Ford (back, IR) and Ziggy Ansah (arm, IR)
  • Defensive tackle: Solomon Thomas (knee, IR)
  • Linebacker: Kwon Alexander (ankle)
  • Cornerback: Richard Sherman (calf, IR) and K’Waun Williams (knee/hip, IR)
  • Safety: Jaquiski Tartt (groin) and Jimmie Ward (quadricep)

That’s nine guys. NINE. And based on last week’s practice reports, there’s a significant chance that not one of these guys will return to action on Sunday.

And let’s not forget the Revenge Game angle.

Does this information matter at all? No. But will I let it impact the decisions I make?

Probably.

You gotta be just a little bit of a nonsensical degenerate sometimes.

From a betting perspective, the Seahawks are intriguing. Off a loss, quarterback Russell Wilson is 23-12-4 ATS (26.1% ROI) with a margin of +4.24 points.



You can bet on this game at FanDuel. If the Seahawks bounce back from their loss and get out to a lead, Hyde could see extended usage as a grind-the-clock runner.

Hyde is a borderline RB2/3 in season-long leagues and the No. 1 option in the CSURAM88, Koerner and Freedman Models for FanDuel, where he leads all running backs with his position-high +5.60 Projected Plus/Minus and 98% Bargain Rating.

Running Backs With Week-Winning Upside

In this section, I highlight some running backs I think will outperform expectations and whom I especially like as upside season-long and DFS tournament plays.

Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints (-4) at Chicago Bears, 43.5 O/U: In only six games, Kamara has a league-high 824 yards and seven touchdowns from scrimmage. He easily leads all running backs in our Models with his median, ceiling and floor projections.

Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans (-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (54 O/U): The Bengals are without run-stuffing defensive tackle D.J. Reader (quad, IR), and they just traded away edge defender Carlos Dunlap. Henry has averaged 21.2 DraftKings and 19.2 FanDuel points across his 21 games as a favorite over the past two-plus seasons (per our FantasyLabs Trends Tool). In quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s 16 regular-season starts with the team, over is 13-2-1 (66.9% ROI). You can bet on this game at William Hill.



For the season, Henry is No. 1 in the league with a 42% opportunity share.

Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers (-6.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings (52.5 O/U): Although Jones (calf) missed last week, he is tentatively expected to return to action this weekend. In quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ home starts, the Packers are an A-graded 55-30-3 ATS (25.8%).



Since last year, Jones is the No. 4 fantasy back with 20.7 PPR and 17.5 STD points per game.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs (-19.5) vs. New York Jets (48.5 O/U): The Chiefs have a slate-high 34.25-point implied Vegas total. Edwards-Helaire has 18-plus opportunities in every game this year but one.

James Conner, Pittsburgh Steelers (+4) at Baltimore Ravens (46.5 O/U): After his injury-impacted Week 1, Conner is 89-442-4 rushing and 13-104-0 receiving on 16 targets over the past five games. As underdogs on the moneyline, the Steelers under head coach Mike Tomlin are an A-graded 29-26 (32.4% ROI).



In his two games with at least 10 carries against defensive coordinator Don Martindale’s Ravens unit, Conner is 38-162-1 rushing and 7-56-1 receiving on nine targets.

Darrell Henderson, Los Angeles Rams (-4) at Miami Dolphins (46 O/U): His five-snap Week 1 was disappointing, but Henderson is 84-406-3 rushing and 9-109-1 receiving on 13 targets over his past six games. The Dolphins are No. 32 with a 12.7% rush-defense DVOA and No. 27 with a 15.3% pass-defense DVOA against running backs.

David Montgomery, Chicago Bears (+4) vs. New Orleans Saints (43.5 O/U): In his past four games without change-of-pace back Tarik Cohen (knee, IR), Montgomery is No. 2 at the position with an 83% snap rate and 74% market share of carries. I can’t come up with anything else good to say about him.

Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati Bengals (+6) vs. Tennessee Titans (54 O/U): In the absence of starter Joe Mixon (foot) last week, Bernard was 13-37-0 rushing and 5-59-1 receiving, and in his five games without Mixon since 2017, Bernard has balled out.

Mixon is yet to practice this week and looks unlikely to play this weekend.

Melvin Gordon, Denver Broncos (+3.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (44.5 O/U): No. 2 back Phillip Lindsay (concussion) is in the league’s protocol, so Gordon might operate as the locked-in lead back in this Revenge Game against his former team. Gordon is a more-than-viable 82-349-4 rushing and 13-57-1 receiving in five games.

D’Andre Swift, Detroit Lions (+3) vs. Indianapolis Colts (50.5 O/U): With the exception of his six-snap Week 3, Swift has impressed in limited action.

Even with his limited usage, Swift has eight-plus opportunities in each of his non-Week 3 games, and over the past two weeks he has averaged 11.5 carries and 4.5 targets per game.

Myles Gaskin, Miami Dolphins (+4) vs. Los Angeles Rams (46 O/U): The most well-rounded back on the team, Gaskin leads the backfield with 15.5 expected fantasy points per game, 82-340-1 rushing and 27-182-0 receiving. Ever since the Dolphins decided to make early-down grinder Jordan Howard a gameday inactive in Week 5, Gaskin has a position-high 41% opportunity share.

JaMycal Hasty, San Francisco 49ers (+3) at Seattle Seahawks (53.5 O/U): Teammates Raheem Mostert (ankle, IR), Tevin Coleman (knee, IR) and Jeffery Wilson (ankle, IR) are out, and veteran Jerick McKinnon had just three carries last game in a rest week. McKinnon seems likely to lead the team in carries, but HC Kyle Shanahan often splits backfield work, and Hasty had nine carries and a target in each of the past two games.

Joshua Kelley, Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) at Denver Broncos (44.5 O/U): Despite splitting snaps with first Austin Ekeler (hamstring, IR) and now Justin Jackson, Kelley has had 10-plus opportunities in each game. Coming out of the bye, last week Kelley out-touched Jackson 17-10.

Le’Veon Bell, Kansas City Chiefs (-19.5) vs. New York Jets (48.5 O/U): Searching … searching … here it is.

How all occasions do inform against me,
And spur my dull revenge! What is a man,
If his chief good and market of his time
Be but to sleep and feed? A beast, no more. …
My thoughts be bloody or be nothing worth!

That says it all.

Damien Harris, New England Patriots (+3.5) at Buffalo Bills (42.5 O/U): The Patriots have averaged just 9.3 points per game over the past month, but perhaps they will rebound against the Bills, who are No. 32 with a 37.4 PFF rush-defense grade. Harris easily leads all Pats backs with a 40% market share of carries since he returned to action in Week 4.

Adrian Peterson, Detroit Lions (+3) vs. Indianapolis Colts (50.5 O/U): The 36-year-old future Hall-of-Famer is having yet another annoyingly spry middle-aged campaign with 80-314-2 rushing and 6-50-0 receiving. Even with dynamic rookie D’Andre Swift’s recent emergence, Peterson leads the backfield with a 38% snap rate and 25% opportunity share.



Matthew Freedman is 702-562-27 (55.5%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.

The Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs, Freedman is commonly called the Oracle & the Labyrinthian.

Pictured above: Cleveland Browns running back Kareem Hunt (27)
Photo credit: Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

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About the Author

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. The only edge he has in anything is his knowledge of '90s music.