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Week 6 Fantasy TE Breakdown: Zach Ertz Checks Into Hotel California

The Week 6 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Oct. 18, at 1 p.m. ET.

In this piece, I highlight tight ends who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, specifically our FantasyLabs Models.

New NFL DFS Trial Offer: Try our new football subscription for $4.95 and get access to our industry-leading tools and projections.

Top Tight Ends in the FantasyLabs Models

There are four tight ends atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek), Ryan Hodge and I have constructed.

Here’s where they place within our Week 6 fantasy football rankings (as of Friday morning).

  • Zach Ertz: No. 5 (PPR) | No. 5 (Half PPR) | No. 5 (Standard)
  • Mike Gesicki: No. 7 (PPR) | No. 7 (Half PPR) | No. 6 (Standard)
  • Kyle Rudolph: No. 25 (PPR) | No. 24 (Half PPR) | No. 24 (Standard)
  • Irv Smith Jr.: No. 27 (PPR) | No. 28 (Half PPR) | No. 29 (Standard)

FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns

Check in throughout the week as I publish the rest of the positional breakdowns.

For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network. For updates, see our FantasyLabs News Feed.

Odds as of Friday morning and via DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus today.

Zach Ertz: Philadelphia Eagles (+7.5) at Baltimore Ravens (47.5 O/U)

In the Week 3 tight end breakdown, I wrote this: “The real problem is that Ertz no longer looks like the clear No. 1 tight end for the Eagles. He’s sharing that role with Goedert.”

What a sweet, naïve youngling I was.

The problem with Ertz isn’t that he’s sharing the No. 1 role with Dallas Goedert.

The problem with Ertz is that he’s no longer a No. 1-caliber player. And that has nothing to do with Goedert, as we’ve seen over the past three games.

In Week 3, Goedert (ankle, IR) played just six snaps before leaving with an injury that has sidelined him ever since. Wide receiver DeSean Jackson (hamstring) also exited that game early and is yet to return to action.

And of course veteran Alshon Jeffery (illness/foot) has missed the entire season and first-round rookie Jalen Reagor (thumb, IR) hasn’t played since Week 2.

For the past three weeks, Ertz should have been swimming in an ocean of target volume. That hasn’t been the case. Instead, we’ve seen a marked decline from the usage he has enjoyed in previous seasons.

  • 2018 (16 games): 9.8 targets per game
  • 2019 (15 games): 9.0 targets per game
  • 2020 (Weeks 3-5): 7.0 targets per game

And on a per-target basis, Ertz has been far less efficient.

  • 2018 (16 games): 7.5 yards per target
  • 2019 (15 games): 6.8 yards per target
  • 2020 (Weeks 3-5): 4.1 yards per target

In just one game this year has Ertz actually been a fantasy TE1 (per RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).

AirYAC (air yards plus yards after catch) is a simple-to-understand metric that serves as a leading indicator of fantasy production. You can find AirYAC in the RotoViz NFL Player Statistical Summary.

If a guy has lots of AirYAC, he probably also has lots of receiving yards and receptions and thus fantasy points. If he has AirYAC without production, that’s a positive sign that he could soon experience a breakout. And if a guy doesn’t have AirYAC, then he probably doesn’t have much receiving production, and we shouldn’t suddenly expect him to start producing.

Here’s why I bring this up: Ertz was an AirYAC dominator in 2018-19, when he had the two best seasons of his career — but this year his AirYAC has plummeted along with his fantasy production (per RotoViz NFL Fantasy Summary).

  • 2018 (16 games): 91.3 AirYAC per game (3rd) | 17.5 PPR (2nd), 10.3 STD (3rd)
  • 2019 (15 games): 94.8 AirYAC per game (2nd) | 14.5 PPR (4th), 8.6 STD (6th)
  • 2020 (five games): 60.6 AirYAC per game (13th) | 8.5 PPR (22nd), 4.5 STD (26th)

That’s bad. I can’t believe I compared this guy to Don Felder a month ago.

Unless Ertz significantly bumps up his AirYAC — or unless he starts scoring an unrealistic number of touchdowns on minimal yardage (in other words, unless he turns into Jimmy Graham) — Ertz is highly likely to end the season as anything much better than a high-end fantasy TE2.

But here’s the thing: Even with his noted decline, Ertz is still No. 6 at the position this year with 11.2 expected fantasy points per game (per RotoViz Screener). He’s still No. 4 with 7.0 targets per game. He’s still No. 8 with a 19% target share.

If you have him in redraft leagues, you almost certainly must start him because his underlying usage is clearly viable.

You can check out anytime you like, but you can never leave.

Even if Ertz disappoints over the course of the season, even if on the whole he underwhelms at turning targets into yards, he will still have periodic peak weeks because of his overall target volume.

Is this week one of those weeks?

I have no idea. Maybe.

Even though he’s facing the Ravens, there’s nothing especially imposing about Ertz’s matchup. Last year with strong safety Earl Thomas, the Ravens were No. 1 in the league against tight ends, holding them to just 4.7 fantasy points per game on 52-575-3 receiving.

But the team released Thomas this offseason, and replacement Jimmy Smith has moved back to the perimeter following the season-ending injury to cornerback Tavon Young (knee, IR).

This year, the Ravens have allowed a middle-of-the-road 7.7 fantasy points per game to the position, and most of the starter-level tight ends to face them (the guys not named “Logan Thomas” and “Drew Sample”) have done well.

  • David Njoku (Week 1): 14.0 PPR, 11.0 STD | 3-50-1, three targets
  • Darren Fells (Week 2): 10.3 PPR, 8.3 STD | 2-23-1, four targets
  • Jordan Akins (Week 2): 12.5 PPR, 5.5 STD | 7-55-0, seven targets
  • Travis Kelce (Week 3): 14.7 PPR, 8.7 STD | 6-87-0, seven targets

The Ravens are No. 22 with a 16.4% pass-defense DVOA against tight ends (per Football Outsiders).

With his target volume, it’s not hard to see how Ertz could have a good performance this weekend.

It helps that he’s on the money-making side of the notable home/away splits he has had ever since becoming a key contributor in 2014 (per our FantasyLabs Trends Tool).

  • Home (51 games): 15.6 DraftKings points | 12.1 FanDuel points
  • Away (48 games): 10.8 DraftKings points | 8.3 FanDuel points

In season-long leagues, Ertz is a mid-range TE1 with top-three upside if he finds the end zone. In DFS, he’s an intriguing tournament play, especially on DraftKings, where he has the No. 7 tight end salary and is projected for a sub-5% exposure rate.

Ertz is the No. 1 tight end in the Hodge Model for both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Salaries: $5,000 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel

Mike Gesicki: Miami Dolphins (-9.5) vs. New York Jets (47 O/U)

Even though he is No. 13 at the position with a 17% target share and No. 14 with 9.8 expected fantasy points per game, Gesicki is No. 4 with 56.2 yards receiving and No. 6 with 78.4 AirYAC per game.

Put that all together, and Gesicki is the No. 9 fantasy tight end with 11.6 PPR and 8.0 standard points per game. From there, add a little more target volume or touchdown luck, and he could jump into the top five.

The main issue with Gesicki this year is his inconsistency. In two games, he has had at least 90 yards. In the other three, no more more than 30. If he doesn’t win your week for you, there’s a pretty decent chance he will lose it.

But going back to last year, Gesicki has been a fantasy TE1 in 44% of his past 16 games.

Given how poor overall tight end play has been this year, a guy who gives you a TE1 performance just shy of half the time doesn’t sound too bad.

While the Jets’ have average defensive numbers against tight ends, the three guys most similar to Gesicki to face them have collectively done well.

  • Jordan Reed (Week 2): 24.0 PPR, 17.0 STD | 7-50-2, eight targets
  • Mo-Alie Cox (Week 3): 14.0 PPR, 11.0 STD | 3-50-1, three targets
  • Noah Fant (Week 4): 8.5 PPR, 3.5 STD | 5-35-0, six targets

In his two games against the Jets last year, Gesicki was a paltry 1-6-0 receiving on five targets in Week 14 and a bountiful 6-95-0 on six targets in Week 9.

The password isn’t “New England Clam Chowder.”

It’s “Volatility.”

For what it’s worth, Gesicki has been notably better at home than on the road dating back to last season.

Gesicki is a mid-range TE1 in season-long leagues and a workable option in DFS, especially on FanDuel, where he’s priced No. 8 at the position but projected No. 3.

Gesicki is the top tight end in the Bales, Koerner, SportsGeek and Freedman Models for FanDuel, where he has position-high marks with 10 Pro Trends and a 99% Bargain Rating.

Salaries: $5,500 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel

Kyle Rudolph: Minnesota Vikings (-4) vs. Atlanta Falcons (54.5 O/U)

On Thursday morning, news broke that the Falcons are dealing with what might be a schedule-altering COVID-19 situation.

As of writing (Friday morning), it looks like the game will proceed as scheduled with all of the latest tests coming back negative in Atlanta, but be sure to monitor the situation.

 

If the game plays, Rudolph is someone to consider.

I believe in respecting my elders, and although I’m definitely older than Rudolph, the dude feels downright ancient as a 31-year-old, decade-long NFL veteran, so I’m giving him the respect he deserves by pointing out that since 2015 only Travis Kelce has more touchdowns at the position than Rudolph has with 31.

For the past half decade, Rudolph has had 4-8 touchdowns each year like clockwork.

But let’s be real. Rudolph has done almost nothing in 2020.

Not once has he had more than three targets in a game. Not once has he had three receptions. Not once has he had even 30 yards.

His 7-76-1 receiving stat line on 10 targets is a mockery of professional production.

And it’s not as if he’s not getting playing time: He has a 71.0% snap rate. He’s just not doing anything with his snaps.

And the problem isn’t really Rudolph … although his lack of athleticism is really starting to show as he ages.

The problem is that the Vikings have a slow, run-heavy offense: They are No. 30 in situation-neutral pace with 31.91 seconds per play, and they are No. 4 with a 50.3% rush-play rate.

There just aren’t many targets to go around, especially after volume-expectant wide receivers Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson get their share. As a result, Rudolph is well outside the top 30 with his 3.2 expected fantasy points and 23.2 AirYAC per game.

Yuck.

But for this week Rudolph has two big factors in his favor.

First, the Vikings have a slate-high 29-point implied Vegas total. They should put up points, which means Rudolph might actually find the end zone.

Second, Rudolph has a good matchup against the Falcons, who have been dominated by every non-Ian Thomas starting tight end to face them.

  • Greg Olsen (Week 1): 12.4 PPR, 8.4 STD | 4-24-1, four targets
  • Dalton Schultz (Week 2): 22.8 PPR, 12.8 STD | 9-88-1, 10 targets
  • Jimmy Graham (Week 3): 24.0 PPR, 18.0 STD | 6-60-2, 10 targets
  • Robert Tonyan (Week 4): 33.8 PPR, 27.8 STD | 6-98-3, six targets

On top of that, the Falcons secondary is without safety Damontae Kazee (Achilles, IR).

Of the 22 teams playing on the Sunday main slate, the Falcons are No. 1 in most fantasy TE1 performances allowed this year with four.

I’m sure you know this by now, but I’m betting on the Vikings. They have struggled to a 1-4 record, but this is a get-right spot.

Since head coach Mike Zimmer joined the team in 2014, the Vikings are 63-37-1 against the spread (ATS) in the regular season, good for an A-graded 22.2% return on investment (ROI, per our Bet Labs database).

And as you might expect with an ATS record that good, Zimmer has exhibited all sorts of regular-season edges throughout his tenure.

  • At home: 30-16-1 ATS | 30.8% ROI
  • As favorite: 36-20-1 | 24.9% ROI
  • Outside of division: 45-18-1 | 38.2% ROI

These trends make sense within the context of who Zimmer is as a coach and what kind of team the Vikings have been under him.

Zimmer is a focused, no-nonsense, risk-adverse, process-oriented, defense-directed “manager” (for lack of a better word), and the Vikings have historically been a disciplined team that doesn’t often make big mistakes.

They don’t waste the natural advantage they have at home. They don’t play down to the level of their underdog opponents. They don’t present a known and easy challenge to teams that aren’t familiar with them.

This week, the Vikings are in a “solar eclipse” spot with all of Zimmer’s historical edges lining up.

As non-divisional home favorites, the Vikings are 19-4-1 ATS (59% ROI).



You can bet on this game at DraftKings.

If you are absolutely desperate — and if you’re reading the world’s longest fantasy blurb on Rudolph, you almost certainly need help (what decisions led you to this point in your life?) — then I guess that Rudolph is someone you should consider.

A low-end desperation TE2 with touchdown-dependent upside in season-long leagues, Rudolph is a cheap and contrarian tournament option in DFS.

Rudolph is the No. 1 tight end in the CSURAM88 Model for FanDuel.

Salaries: $3,700 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel

Irv Smith Jr.: Minnesota Vikings (-4) vs. Atlanta Falcons (54.5 O/U)

Another babka?

Almost everything I just wrote about Rudolph applies to Smith, especially regarding the matchup with the Falcons, who are the worst team in tight end defense playing this week.

Their 33-336-7 receiving line allowed to the position is comically bad.

Like Rudolph, Smith is well outside the top 30 with 3.3 expected fantasy points and 23.6 AirYAC per game.

Unlike Rudy, though, Smith last week saw a surge in usage, hitting 2020 highs with 59 snaps, five targets, four receptions and 64 yards.

Maybe Smith’s Week 5 usage is just noise — but maybe it isn’t, and if there’s ever a time to bet on a tight end, it’s when he’s playing the Falcons. And given that Smith is a second-season, second-round 22-year-old talent with good athleticism (4.63-second 40-yard dash), it’s not hard to imagine him breaking out at some point. Why not this week?

Of the two Vikings tight ends, Smith is probably the chocolate babka. Rudolph, cinnamon.

Like Rudolph, Smith is a low-end season-long TE2 with touchdown potential.

Unlike Rudolph, Smith might actually be a DFS cash-game candidate, especially on DraftKings, where he is priced at the stone minimum.

Rudolph is the No. 1 tight end in the Bales, CSURAM88, Koerner, Raybon, SportsGeek and Freedman Models for DraftKings, where he has a position-high +2.71 Projected Plus/Minus.

He is also the top option in the Raybon Model for FanDuel.

 

Salaries: $2,500 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel

Tight Ends With Week-Winning Upside

In this section, I highlight some tight end I think will outperform expectations and whom I especially like as upside season-long and DFS tournament plays.

Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens (-7.5) at Philadelphia Eagles (47.5 O/U): Despite ranking No. 12 with 5.8 targets per game, Andrews is a top-six tight end thanks to his position-high 14 red-zone targets, seven end-zone targets and five touchdowns (per Pro Football Focus). Andrews is on the positive side of his splits as a favorite (per RotoViz Game Splits App) …

… and opposing tight end units are No. 5 against the Eagles with 12.2 fantasy points per game on 32-323-5 receiving. Andrews has position-high median, ceiling and floor projections in our Models. Salaries: $6,500 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel

T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (54.5 O/U): The Jags are No. 31 with a 46.1% pass-defense DVOA against tight ends. Son of Hocken is coming off a bye and has been no worse than a fantasy TE2 in any game this year.

Salaries: $5,300 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel

Jonnu Smith, Tennessee Titans (-3.5) vs. Houston Texans (53 O/U): With 9.1 yards per target since 2018 and 6.8 targets per game this year, Smith finally has the volume to match his talent. He did next to nothing against the Texans last year in a Week 17 blowout (1-7-0 rushing, zero targets), but in Week 15 he gave them the panhandle treatment with 5-60-0 receiving on five targets and 1-57-0 rushing. Salaries: $5,200 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel

Evan Engram, New York Giants (-2.5) vs. Washington Football Team (43 O/U): I feel as if I should have a blurb on Engram, so this is that blurb. He has just 4.6 yards per target, but The Footballers are No. 32 with a 56.5% pass-defense DVOA against tight ends. If it doesn’t happen this week, it’s never happening. Salaries: $4,900 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel

Hayden Hurst, Atlanta Falcons (+4) at Minnesota Vikings (54.5 O/U): No. 1 wide receiver Julio Jones (hamstring) seems likely to miss his second straight game, so Hurst could see extra targets. He has five-plus targets in every game but one and is No. 9 with 68 AirYAC per game. Salaries: $4,700 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel

Eric Ebron, Pittsburgh Steelers (-4) vs. Cleveland Browns (51 O/U): After doing nothing in Week 1, Ebron is 13-138-1 receiving in his three most recent games. Tight end units are No. 8 against the Browns with 11.0 fantasy points per game on 33-308-4 receiving. Salaries: $4,100 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel

Austin Hooper, Cleveland Browns (+4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4) (51 O/U): The Steelers are No. 3 with a -43.3% pass-defense DVOA against tight ends, but Hooper might be able to overcome that with his near-elite usage.

Over the past month, Hooper is a manageable 15-138-1 receiving on 25 targets. Salaries: $3,900 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel

Logan Thomas, Washington Football Team (+2.5) at New York Giants (43 O/U): Searching. So many options to choose from. Still looking. Still looking. Let’s go with this one.

Yeah, that feels right. Salaries: $3,300 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel

Trey Burton, Indianapolis Colts (+7.5) vs. Bengals (46.5 O/U): Since his activation from IR, Burton is 7-49-0 receiving on 11 targets over the past two weeks. Let’s just pretend that’s decent. As of Friday morning, the Colts are dealing with a COVID-19 situation that might impact their Week 6 status, so monitor the situation. Salaries: $3,100 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel



Matthew Freedman is 648-519-26 (55.5%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.

The Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs, Freedman is commonly called the Oracle & the Labyrinthian.

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The Week 6 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Oct. 18, at 1 p.m. ET.

In this piece, I highlight tight ends who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, specifically our FantasyLabs Models.

New NFL DFS Trial Offer: Try our new football subscription for $4.95 and get access to our industry-leading tools and projections.

Top Tight Ends in the FantasyLabs Models

There are four tight ends atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek), Ryan Hodge and I have constructed.

Here’s where they place within our Week 6 fantasy football rankings (as of Friday morning).

  • Zach Ertz: No. 5 (PPR) | No. 5 (Half PPR) | No. 5 (Standard)
  • Mike Gesicki: No. 7 (PPR) | No. 7 (Half PPR) | No. 6 (Standard)
  • Kyle Rudolph: No. 25 (PPR) | No. 24 (Half PPR) | No. 24 (Standard)
  • Irv Smith Jr.: No. 27 (PPR) | No. 28 (Half PPR) | No. 29 (Standard)

FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns

Check in throughout the week as I publish the rest of the positional breakdowns.

For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network. For updates, see our FantasyLabs News Feed.

Odds as of Friday morning and via DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus today.

Zach Ertz: Philadelphia Eagles (+7.5) at Baltimore Ravens (47.5 O/U)

In the Week 3 tight end breakdown, I wrote this: “The real problem is that Ertz no longer looks like the clear No. 1 tight end for the Eagles. He’s sharing that role with Goedert.”

What a sweet, naïve youngling I was.

The problem with Ertz isn’t that he’s sharing the No. 1 role with Dallas Goedert.

The problem with Ertz is that he’s no longer a No. 1-caliber player. And that has nothing to do with Goedert, as we’ve seen over the past three games.

In Week 3, Goedert (ankle, IR) played just six snaps before leaving with an injury that has sidelined him ever since. Wide receiver DeSean Jackson (hamstring) also exited that game early and is yet to return to action.

And of course veteran Alshon Jeffery (illness/foot) has missed the entire season and first-round rookie Jalen Reagor (thumb, IR) hasn’t played since Week 2.

For the past three weeks, Ertz should have been swimming in an ocean of target volume. That hasn’t been the case. Instead, we’ve seen a marked decline from the usage he has enjoyed in previous seasons.

  • 2018 (16 games): 9.8 targets per game
  • 2019 (15 games): 9.0 targets per game
  • 2020 (Weeks 3-5): 7.0 targets per game

And on a per-target basis, Ertz has been far less efficient.

  • 2018 (16 games): 7.5 yards per target
  • 2019 (15 games): 6.8 yards per target
  • 2020 (Weeks 3-5): 4.1 yards per target

In just one game this year has Ertz actually been a fantasy TE1 (per RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).

AirYAC (air yards plus yards after catch) is a simple-to-understand metric that serves as a leading indicator of fantasy production. You can find AirYAC in the RotoViz NFL Player Statistical Summary.

If a guy has lots of AirYAC, he probably also has lots of receiving yards and receptions and thus fantasy points. If he has AirYAC without production, that’s a positive sign that he could soon experience a breakout. And if a guy doesn’t have AirYAC, then he probably doesn’t have much receiving production, and we shouldn’t suddenly expect him to start producing.

Here’s why I bring this up: Ertz was an AirYAC dominator in 2018-19, when he had the two best seasons of his career — but this year his AirYAC has plummeted along with his fantasy production (per RotoViz NFL Fantasy Summary).

  • 2018 (16 games): 91.3 AirYAC per game (3rd) | 17.5 PPR (2nd), 10.3 STD (3rd)
  • 2019 (15 games): 94.8 AirYAC per game (2nd) | 14.5 PPR (4th), 8.6 STD (6th)
  • 2020 (five games): 60.6 AirYAC per game (13th) | 8.5 PPR (22nd), 4.5 STD (26th)

That’s bad. I can’t believe I compared this guy to Don Felder a month ago.

Unless Ertz significantly bumps up his AirYAC — or unless he starts scoring an unrealistic number of touchdowns on minimal yardage (in other words, unless he turns into Jimmy Graham) — Ertz is highly likely to end the season as anything much better than a high-end fantasy TE2.

But here’s the thing: Even with his noted decline, Ertz is still No. 6 at the position this year with 11.2 expected fantasy points per game (per RotoViz Screener). He’s still No. 4 with 7.0 targets per game. He’s still No. 8 with a 19% target share.

If you have him in redraft leagues, you almost certainly must start him because his underlying usage is clearly viable.

You can check out anytime you like, but you can never leave.

Even if Ertz disappoints over the course of the season, even if on the whole he underwhelms at turning targets into yards, he will still have periodic peak weeks because of his overall target volume.

Is this week one of those weeks?

I have no idea. Maybe.

Even though he’s facing the Ravens, there’s nothing especially imposing about Ertz’s matchup. Last year with strong safety Earl Thomas, the Ravens were No. 1 in the league against tight ends, holding them to just 4.7 fantasy points per game on 52-575-3 receiving.

But the team released Thomas this offseason, and replacement Jimmy Smith has moved back to the perimeter following the season-ending injury to cornerback Tavon Young (knee, IR).

This year, the Ravens have allowed a middle-of-the-road 7.7 fantasy points per game to the position, and most of the starter-level tight ends to face them (the guys not named “Logan Thomas” and “Drew Sample”) have done well.

  • David Njoku (Week 1): 14.0 PPR, 11.0 STD | 3-50-1, three targets
  • Darren Fells (Week 2): 10.3 PPR, 8.3 STD | 2-23-1, four targets
  • Jordan Akins (Week 2): 12.5 PPR, 5.5 STD | 7-55-0, seven targets
  • Travis Kelce (Week 3): 14.7 PPR, 8.7 STD | 6-87-0, seven targets

The Ravens are No. 22 with a 16.4% pass-defense DVOA against tight ends (per Football Outsiders).

With his target volume, it’s not hard to see how Ertz could have a good performance this weekend.

It helps that he’s on the money-making side of the notable home/away splits he has had ever since becoming a key contributor in 2014 (per our FantasyLabs Trends Tool).

  • Home (51 games): 15.6 DraftKings points | 12.1 FanDuel points
  • Away (48 games): 10.8 DraftKings points | 8.3 FanDuel points

In season-long leagues, Ertz is a mid-range TE1 with top-three upside if he finds the end zone. In DFS, he’s an intriguing tournament play, especially on DraftKings, where he has the No. 7 tight end salary and is projected for a sub-5% exposure rate.

Ertz is the No. 1 tight end in the Hodge Model for both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Salaries: $5,000 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel

Mike Gesicki: Miami Dolphins (-9.5) vs. New York Jets (47 O/U)

Even though he is No. 13 at the position with a 17% target share and No. 14 with 9.8 expected fantasy points per game, Gesicki is No. 4 with 56.2 yards receiving and No. 6 with 78.4 AirYAC per game.

Put that all together, and Gesicki is the No. 9 fantasy tight end with 11.6 PPR and 8.0 standard points per game. From there, add a little more target volume or touchdown luck, and he could jump into the top five.

The main issue with Gesicki this year is his inconsistency. In two games, he has had at least 90 yards. In the other three, no more more than 30. If he doesn’t win your week for you, there’s a pretty decent chance he will lose it.

But going back to last year, Gesicki has been a fantasy TE1 in 44% of his past 16 games.

Given how poor overall tight end play has been this year, a guy who gives you a TE1 performance just shy of half the time doesn’t sound too bad.

While the Jets’ have average defensive numbers against tight ends, the three guys most similar to Gesicki to face them have collectively done well.

  • Jordan Reed (Week 2): 24.0 PPR, 17.0 STD | 7-50-2, eight targets
  • Mo-Alie Cox (Week 3): 14.0 PPR, 11.0 STD | 3-50-1, three targets
  • Noah Fant (Week 4): 8.5 PPR, 3.5 STD | 5-35-0, six targets

In his two games against the Jets last year, Gesicki was a paltry 1-6-0 receiving on five targets in Week 14 and a bountiful 6-95-0 on six targets in Week 9.

The password isn’t “New England Clam Chowder.”

It’s “Volatility.”

For what it’s worth, Gesicki has been notably better at home than on the road dating back to last season.

Gesicki is a mid-range TE1 in season-long leagues and a workable option in DFS, especially on FanDuel, where he’s priced No. 8 at the position but projected No. 3.

Gesicki is the top tight end in the Bales, Koerner, SportsGeek and Freedman Models for FanDuel, where he has position-high marks with 10 Pro Trends and a 99% Bargain Rating.

Salaries: $5,500 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel

Kyle Rudolph: Minnesota Vikings (-4) vs. Atlanta Falcons (54.5 O/U)

On Thursday morning, news broke that the Falcons are dealing with what might be a schedule-altering COVID-19 situation.

As of writing (Friday morning), it looks like the game will proceed as scheduled with all of the latest tests coming back negative in Atlanta, but be sure to monitor the situation.

 

If the game plays, Rudolph is someone to consider.

I believe in respecting my elders, and although I’m definitely older than Rudolph, the dude feels downright ancient as a 31-year-old, decade-long NFL veteran, so I’m giving him the respect he deserves by pointing out that since 2015 only Travis Kelce has more touchdowns at the position than Rudolph has with 31.

For the past half decade, Rudolph has had 4-8 touchdowns each year like clockwork.

But let’s be real. Rudolph has done almost nothing in 2020.

Not once has he had more than three targets in a game. Not once has he had three receptions. Not once has he had even 30 yards.

His 7-76-1 receiving stat line on 10 targets is a mockery of professional production.

And it’s not as if he’s not getting playing time: He has a 71.0% snap rate. He’s just not doing anything with his snaps.

And the problem isn’t really Rudolph … although his lack of athleticism is really starting to show as he ages.

The problem is that the Vikings have a slow, run-heavy offense: They are No. 30 in situation-neutral pace with 31.91 seconds per play, and they are No. 4 with a 50.3% rush-play rate.

There just aren’t many targets to go around, especially after volume-expectant wide receivers Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson get their share. As a result, Rudolph is well outside the top 30 with his 3.2 expected fantasy points and 23.2 AirYAC per game.

Yuck.

But for this week Rudolph has two big factors in his favor.

First, the Vikings have a slate-high 29-point implied Vegas total. They should put up points, which means Rudolph might actually find the end zone.

Second, Rudolph has a good matchup against the Falcons, who have been dominated by every non-Ian Thomas starting tight end to face them.

  • Greg Olsen (Week 1): 12.4 PPR, 8.4 STD | 4-24-1, four targets
  • Dalton Schultz (Week 2): 22.8 PPR, 12.8 STD | 9-88-1, 10 targets
  • Jimmy Graham (Week 3): 24.0 PPR, 18.0 STD | 6-60-2, 10 targets
  • Robert Tonyan (Week 4): 33.8 PPR, 27.8 STD | 6-98-3, six targets

On top of that, the Falcons secondary is without safety Damontae Kazee (Achilles, IR).

Of the 22 teams playing on the Sunday main slate, the Falcons are No. 1 in most fantasy TE1 performances allowed this year with four.

I’m sure you know this by now, but I’m betting on the Vikings. They have struggled to a 1-4 record, but this is a get-right spot.

Since head coach Mike Zimmer joined the team in 2014, the Vikings are 63-37-1 against the spread (ATS) in the regular season, good for an A-graded 22.2% return on investment (ROI, per our Bet Labs database).

And as you might expect with an ATS record that good, Zimmer has exhibited all sorts of regular-season edges throughout his tenure.

  • At home: 30-16-1 ATS | 30.8% ROI
  • As favorite: 36-20-1 | 24.9% ROI
  • Outside of division: 45-18-1 | 38.2% ROI

These trends make sense within the context of who Zimmer is as a coach and what kind of team the Vikings have been under him.

Zimmer is a focused, no-nonsense, risk-adverse, process-oriented, defense-directed “manager” (for lack of a better word), and the Vikings have historically been a disciplined team that doesn’t often make big mistakes.

They don’t waste the natural advantage they have at home. They don’t play down to the level of their underdog opponents. They don’t present a known and easy challenge to teams that aren’t familiar with them.

This week, the Vikings are in a “solar eclipse” spot with all of Zimmer’s historical edges lining up.

As non-divisional home favorites, the Vikings are 19-4-1 ATS (59% ROI).



You can bet on this game at DraftKings.

If you are absolutely desperate — and if you’re reading the world’s longest fantasy blurb on Rudolph, you almost certainly need help (what decisions led you to this point in your life?) — then I guess that Rudolph is someone you should consider.

A low-end desperation TE2 with touchdown-dependent upside in season-long leagues, Rudolph is a cheap and contrarian tournament option in DFS.

Rudolph is the No. 1 tight end in the CSURAM88 Model for FanDuel.

Salaries: $3,700 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel

Irv Smith Jr.: Minnesota Vikings (-4) vs. Atlanta Falcons (54.5 O/U)

Another babka?

Almost everything I just wrote about Rudolph applies to Smith, especially regarding the matchup with the Falcons, who are the worst team in tight end defense playing this week.

Their 33-336-7 receiving line allowed to the position is comically bad.

Like Rudolph, Smith is well outside the top 30 with 3.3 expected fantasy points and 23.6 AirYAC per game.

Unlike Rudy, though, Smith last week saw a surge in usage, hitting 2020 highs with 59 snaps, five targets, four receptions and 64 yards.

Maybe Smith’s Week 5 usage is just noise — but maybe it isn’t, and if there’s ever a time to bet on a tight end, it’s when he’s playing the Falcons. And given that Smith is a second-season, second-round 22-year-old talent with good athleticism (4.63-second 40-yard dash), it’s not hard to imagine him breaking out at some point. Why not this week?

Of the two Vikings tight ends, Smith is probably the chocolate babka. Rudolph, cinnamon.

Like Rudolph, Smith is a low-end season-long TE2 with touchdown potential.

Unlike Rudolph, Smith might actually be a DFS cash-game candidate, especially on DraftKings, where he is priced at the stone minimum.

Rudolph is the No. 1 tight end in the Bales, CSURAM88, Koerner, Raybon, SportsGeek and Freedman Models for DraftKings, where he has a position-high +2.71 Projected Plus/Minus.

He is also the top option in the Raybon Model for FanDuel.

 

Salaries: $2,500 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel

Tight Ends With Week-Winning Upside

In this section, I highlight some tight end I think will outperform expectations and whom I especially like as upside season-long and DFS tournament plays.

Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens (-7.5) at Philadelphia Eagles (47.5 O/U): Despite ranking No. 12 with 5.8 targets per game, Andrews is a top-six tight end thanks to his position-high 14 red-zone targets, seven end-zone targets and five touchdowns (per Pro Football Focus). Andrews is on the positive side of his splits as a favorite (per RotoViz Game Splits App) …

… and opposing tight end units are No. 5 against the Eagles with 12.2 fantasy points per game on 32-323-5 receiving. Andrews has position-high median, ceiling and floor projections in our Models. Salaries: $6,500 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel

T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (54.5 O/U): The Jags are No. 31 with a 46.1% pass-defense DVOA against tight ends. Son of Hocken is coming off a bye and has been no worse than a fantasy TE2 in any game this year.

Salaries: $5,300 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel

Jonnu Smith, Tennessee Titans (-3.5) vs. Houston Texans (53 O/U): With 9.1 yards per target since 2018 and 6.8 targets per game this year, Smith finally has the volume to match his talent. He did next to nothing against the Texans last year in a Week 17 blowout (1-7-0 rushing, zero targets), but in Week 15 he gave them the panhandle treatment with 5-60-0 receiving on five targets and 1-57-0 rushing. Salaries: $5,200 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel

Evan Engram, New York Giants (-2.5) vs. Washington Football Team (43 O/U): I feel as if I should have a blurb on Engram, so this is that blurb. He has just 4.6 yards per target, but The Footballers are No. 32 with a 56.5% pass-defense DVOA against tight ends. If it doesn’t happen this week, it’s never happening. Salaries: $4,900 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel

Hayden Hurst, Atlanta Falcons (+4) at Minnesota Vikings (54.5 O/U): No. 1 wide receiver Julio Jones (hamstring) seems likely to miss his second straight game, so Hurst could see extra targets. He has five-plus targets in every game but one and is No. 9 with 68 AirYAC per game. Salaries: $4,700 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel

Eric Ebron, Pittsburgh Steelers (-4) vs. Cleveland Browns (51 O/U): After doing nothing in Week 1, Ebron is 13-138-1 receiving in his three most recent games. Tight end units are No. 8 against the Browns with 11.0 fantasy points per game on 33-308-4 receiving. Salaries: $4,100 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel

Austin Hooper, Cleveland Browns (+4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4) (51 O/U): The Steelers are No. 3 with a -43.3% pass-defense DVOA against tight ends, but Hooper might be able to overcome that with his near-elite usage.

Over the past month, Hooper is a manageable 15-138-1 receiving on 25 targets. Salaries: $3,900 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel

Logan Thomas, Washington Football Team (+2.5) at New York Giants (43 O/U): Searching. So many options to choose from. Still looking. Still looking. Let’s go with this one.

Yeah, that feels right. Salaries: $3,300 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel

Trey Burton, Indianapolis Colts (+7.5) vs. Bengals (46.5 O/U): Since his activation from IR, Burton is 7-49-0 receiving on 11 targets over the past two weeks. Let’s just pretend that’s decent. As of Friday morning, the Colts are dealing with a COVID-19 situation that might impact their Week 6 status, so monitor the situation. Salaries: $3,100 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel



Matthew Freedman is 648-519-26 (55.5%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.

The Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs, Freedman is commonly called the Oracle & the Labyrinthian.

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Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. The only edge he has in anything is his knowledge of '90s music.