Our Blog

  1. Home
  2. Our Blog
  3. Week 6 Fantasy WR Breakdown: Terry McLaurin, Shower Narrative No More
NFL

Week 6 Fantasy WR Breakdown: Terry McLaurin, Shower Narrative No More

BetMGM bonus code

The Week 6 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Oct. 18, at 1 p.m. ET.

In this piece, I highlight wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically our FantasyLabs Models.

New NFL DFS Trial Offer: Try our new football subscription for $4.95 and get access to our industry-leading tools and projections.

Top Wide Receivers in the FantasyLabs Models

There are five wide receivers atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek), Ryan Hodge and I have constructed.

Here’s where they place within our Week 6 fantasy football rankings (as of Thursday afternoon).

  • Adam Thielen: No. 3 (PPR) | No. 3 (Half PPR) | No. 4 (Standard)
  • Terry McLaurin: No. 12 (PPR) | No. 12 (Half PPR) | No. 13 (Standard)
  • DeVante Parker: No. 22 (PPR) | No. 22 (Half PPR) | No. 20 (Standard)
  • Damiere Byrd: No. 55 (PPR) | No. 52 (Half PPR) | No. 51 (Standard)
  • Darnell Mooney: No. 61 (PPR) | No. 62 (Half PPR) | No. 64 (Standard)

FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns

Check in throughout the week as I publish the rest of the positional breakdowns.

For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network. For updates, see our FantasyLabs News Feed.

Odds as of Thursday afternoon and via DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus today.

Adam Thielen: Minnesota Vikings (-4) vs. Atlanta Falcons (54.5 O/U)

UPDATE (Fri. 10/15, 9:30 am ET): After writing the Thielen section but before publishing this piece, I saw news breaks that the Falcons are dealing with what might be a schedule-altering COVID-19 situation.

There’s a chance now that this game will not play on Sunday. Be sure to monitor.

I wasn’t high on Thielen entering the year, but he’s a top-five fantasy receiver with 21.0 PPR and 15.2 standard points per game. He’s getting the job done.

One of my preseason concerns with Thielen was that the Vikings would have a slow run-heavy offense and that their No. 1 receiver would see fewer targets than he otherwise would.

I was maybe halfway right. The Vikings are No. 30 in situation-neutral pace with 31.91 second per play (per Football Outsiders), and they are No. 4 with a 50.3% rush-play rate.

The Vikings in fact do have a slow run-heavy offense.

But Thielen has still gotten his opportunities thanks to a league-high 33% market share of targets (per RotoViz NFL Player Statistical Summary).

Now, it’s not as if his 8.8 targets per game is an obscenely high number. That ranks No. 16 in the NFL.

But the quality of his targets is nearly unrivaled, as he ranks No. 2 with seven end-zone targets and No. 3 with 13 red-zone targets (per Pro Football Focus).

With this kind of usage, it’s not a surprise that Thielen leads the league with six touchdowns receiving.

Additionally, quarterback Kirk Cousins is targeting him farther downfield, based on his averaged depth of target (aDOT).

  • 2020 aDOT: 14.8
  • 2019 aDOT: 13.8
  • 2018 aDOT: 10.0

With the enhanced opportunity to turn each target into more yards, Thielen isn’t just a touchdown-dependent receiver. He has a real chance each game to produce a top-end yardage total, as evidenced by his No. 9 ranking with 133.8 air yards and yards after the catch (AirYAC) per game.

AirYAC is a leading and simple-to-understand indicator of fantasy output. You can find it at RotoViz.

And then there’s this: Thielen is No. 1 in the league with a 0.80 WOPR.

WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating) is a stat created by Josh Hermsmeyer. It combines target share and air-yard share and is available at AirYards.com.

Because Thielen doesn’t have elite target volume, he’s more prone to the vicissitudes of randomness that accompanies receiving output. He’s been a boom-or-bust producer this year (per RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).

But given the totality of his usage — his targets in or near the end zone and down the field — his production is sustainable.

For this week, Thielen has two big factors in his favor.

First, the Vikings have a slate-high 29-point implied Vegas total. They should put up points, which means Thielen could be a candidate for multiple touchdowns.

Second, Thielen has a good matchup against the Falcons, who are No. 30 in Football Outsiders’ pass-defense DVOA metric with a mark of 25.0%.

Perimeter receivers comparable to Thielen in talent and usage have dominated the Falcons this year.

  • D.K. Metcalf (Week 1): 19.5 PPR, 15.5 STD | 4-95-1, eight targets
  • Amari Cooper (Week 2): 16.0 PPR, 10.0 STD | 6-100-0, nine targets
  • Allen Robinson (Week 3): 28.3 PPR, 18.3 STD | 10-123-1, 13 targets
  • Davante Adams (Week 4): Injured, missed game
  • Robby Anderson (Week 5): 19.5 PPR, 11.5 STD | 8-112-0, 13 targets | 1-3-0 rushing
  • D.J. Moore (Week 5):19.3 PPR, 15.3 STD | 4-93-1, five targets

On top of that, the Falcons secondary is without two starters in slot cornerback Darqueze Dennard (hamstring, IR) and safety Damontae Kazee (Achilles, IR). This already thin unit is starting to starve.

Of the 22 teams playing on the Sunday main slate, the Falcons have allowed the most WR1/2 fantasy performances this year with seven.

Full disclosure: I’m 100% betting on the Vikings. They have struggled to a 1-4 record, but this is a get-right spot.

Since head coach Mike Zimmer joined the team in 2014, the Vikings are 63-37-1 against the spread (ATS) in the regular season, good for an A-graded 22.2% return on investment (ROI, per our Bet Labs database).

And as you might expect with an ATS record that good, Zimmer has exhibited all sorts of regular-season edges throughout his tenure.

  • At home: 30-16-1 ATS | 30.8% ROI
  • As favorite: 36-20-1 | 24.9% ROI
  • Outside of division: 45-18-1 | 38.2% ROI

These trends make sense within the context of who Zimmer is as a coach and what kind of team the Vikings have been under him.

Zimmer is a focused, no-nonsense, risk-adverse, process-oriented, defense-directed “manager” (for lack of a better word), and the Vikings have historically been a disciplined team that doesn’t often make big mistakes.

They don’t waste the natural advantage they have at home. They don’t play down to the level of their underdog opponents. They don’t present a known and easy challenge to teams that aren’t familiar with them.

This week, the Vikings are in a “solar eclipse” spot with all of Zimmer’s historical edges lining up.

As non-divisional home favorites, the Vikings are 19-4-1 ATS (59% ROI).



Heaven let your light shine down. [Insert guitar riff.] You can bet on this game at DraftKings.

This week Thielen is a high-end WR1 in season-long leagues and a strong candidate for cash games and guaranteed prize pools in DFS. He leads all wide receivers with his median, ceiling and floor projections in our Models.

Thielen is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Freedman Model for FanDuel, where he has a position-high +5.01 Projected Plus/Minus.

Salaries: $7,300 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel

Terry McLaurin: Washington Football Team (+2.5) at New York Giants (43 O/U)

To open the year, McLaurin has faced an all-time brutal schedule of opposing No. 1 cornerbacks.

  • Week 1: Darius Slay
  • Week 2: Patrick Peterson
  • Week 3: Denzel Ward
  • Week 4: Marcus Peters
  • Week 5: Jalen Ramsey

He hasn’t run all his routes against these five defenders, but the point stands that McLaurin has had it worse than any other wide receiver to start the year.

And now he has another tough matchup against cornerback James Bradberry. McLaurin must have angered the football gods in a previous life.

A physical press-man defender, Bradberry has been used in shadow coverage over the past four weeks, and he has played well, allowing just 11-110-0 receiving and 5.2 yards per target while breaking up six passes and grabbing an interception.

In his first season with the Giants, he has been a lone bright spot for the defense, putting up an 87.3 PFF coverage grade. No other key contributor in the secondary has a mark of even 60. Given how poorly the rest of the secondary is playing, it seems highly like that Bradberry will shadow McLaurin.

And that’s bad news for the second-year receiver.

In Week 5, Amari Cooper was just 2-23-0 on four targets while spending most of the game in Bradberry’s shadow. Against Bradberry specifically, Cooper had eight yards on three targets.

Bradberry will present a significant challenge to McLaurin, who himself was just 3-26-0 receiving on seven targets last week.

<Grinds tape for 30 minutes.>

You know, it seems maybe the quarterback combination of Kyle Allen and Alex Smith isn’t a net positive for McLaurin after all.

But McLaurin still has sky-high upside: He’s No. 5 with 140.8 AirYAC and No. 12 with 82.6 yards receiving per game.

He has seven-plus targets in every game this year, and in Weeks 1-4 he was dominant.

  • Week 1 (vs. PHI): 11.1 PPR, 6.1 STD | 5-61-0, seven targets
  • Week 2 (at ARI): 25.5 PPR, 18.5 STD | 7-125-1, 10 targets
  • Week 3 (at CLE): 12.6 PPR, 8.6 STD | 4-83-0, eight targets | 1-3-0 rushing
  • Week 4 (vs. BAL): 21.8 PPR, 11.8 STD | 10-118-0, 14 targets

It’s hard to know if McLaurin’s Week 5 letdown was due to the matchup, the lack of quarterback Dwayne Haskins or just randomness.

But my general sense is that Haskins isn’t overly crucial to McLaurin’s production, based on his 2019 rookie campaign.

  • Weeks 9-16 with Haskins (seven games): 30-461-2 receiving, 47 targets
  • Weeks 1-8 with Case Keenum & Colt McCoy (seven games): 28-458-5 receiving, 46 targets

McLaurin’s 2019 splits with and without Haskins were almost identical with the exception of three touchdowns — and touchdowns are very random.

Whether it was Haskins, Keenum or McCoy throwing to him, McLaurin was basically the same receiver.

Shower narrative, no more. Shower narrative, no such thing.

And it seems far from certain that Allen is a downgrade on Haskins or is bad enough to prevent McLaurin from producing. Last year, D.J. Moore was 87-1,175-4 receiving in his second season, and that was with 109 of his 135 targets coming from Allen.

Bottom line: McLaurin went off against Peterson in Week 2 and the vaunted Ravens secondary in Week 4, and he did that with Haskins, who is quickly on his way to Bustville. There’s probably an underappreciated chance that McLaurin goes off against Bradberry without Haskins this week.

From a sports-betting perspective, the Footballers intrigue me this week for a couple reasons.

First, I’ve noticed that road underdogs tend to outperform when they play within their division.

  • Divisional Road Dogs: 543-476-33 ATS | 3.9% ROI
  • Non-Divisional Road Dogs: 907-888-56 ATS | -1.3% ROI

A 3.8% ROI might not seem like much, but over a sample this large it’s significant. And we can dig further into this sample to discover more value.

I have this theory: Early in the year, when divisional opponents tend to face each other for the first time, road dogs have an undeniable edge relative to the market. Later in the year, when division rivals are more familiar with each other and their markets are more efficient, road dogs are disadvantaged when they meet for the rematch.

At least that’s my theory, and it’s borne out by the regular-season numbers.

  • Divisional Road Dogs (Sep. – Nov.): 357-282-23 ATS | 8.8% ROI
  • Divisional Road Dogs (Dec. – Jan.): 186-194-10 ATS | -4.6% ROI

In the middle of October, the Football Team is in the sweet spot of this trend.



On top of that, regular-season visitors are an astounding 48-32-2 ATS (17.1% ROI) against the Giants since they moved into MetLife Stadium in 2010.

In a season in which home-field advantage is minimal, the Giants might actually have a home-field deficit if the past is any indication. You can bet on this game at FanDuel.

McLaurin is a high-end WR2 with volume-fueled WR1 upside in season-long leagues, and in DFS he’s a viable tournament option. As it happens, McLaurin is the No. 1 receiver in Josh Hermsmeyer’s Week 6 Air Yards Buy-Low Model.

He seems especially rosterable on DraftKings, where he’s the No. 1 receiver in the Bales and Freedman Models and has the No. 7 median and ceiling projections at the No. 20 wide receiver salary.

Salaries: $5,700 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel

DeVante Parker: Miami Dolphins (-9.5) vs. New York Jets (47 O/U)

A surprise breakout last year with 72-1,202-9 receiving, Parker has had an up-and-down 2020.

  • Week 1 (at NE): 8.7 PPR, 4.7 STD | 4-47-0, four targets
  • Week 2 (vs. BUF): 16.3 PPR, 11.3 STD | 5-53-1, eight targets
  • Week 3 (at JAX): 11.9 PPR, 6.9 STD | 5-69-0, five targets
  • Week 4 (vs. SEA): 21.0 PPR, 11.0 STD | 10-110-0, 12 targets
  • Week 5 (at SF): 13.0 PPR, 11.0 STD | 2-50-1, three targets

Some contextualization is in order.

In Week 1, Parker aggravated a preexisting hamstring injury and left the game early. In Week 2, he was a true game-time decision and was still hampered by his hamstring. Week 1 is not representative, and Week 2 might not be either.

In Weeks 3-5, though, he was 17-229-1 receiving on 20 targets, which put him on pace for a 1,200-yard performance over 16 games. Setting aside his early-season injury, Parker has basically been the same guy this year that he was last year.

And now he gets to face the Jets, who are No. 31 with a 41.7 PFF coverage grade.

They faced a receiver-less 49ers team in Week 2 and a Philip Rivers-led team in Week 3, but if we set those games aside we see that the Jets have been dominated by most perimeter receivers they’ve faced.

  • Stefon Diggs (Week 1): 16.6 PPR, 8.6 STD | 8-86-0, nine targets
  • John Brown (Week 1): 19.0 PPR, 13.0 STD | 6-70-1, 10 targets
  • Tim Patrick (Week 4): 23.3 PPR, 17.3 STD | 6-113-1, seven targets
  • DeAndre Hopkins (Week 5): 25.1 PPR, 19.1 STD | 6-131-1, seven targets
  • Christian Kirk (Week 5): 12.8 PPR, 7.8 STD | 5-78-0, seven targets

It hurts that they have been without starting cornerback Blessuan Austin (calf) over the past two weeks, because in his place undrafted rookie Lamar Jackson (aka “The Other L-Jax”) has been exploited, allowing 11-204-1 receiving on 13 targets.

But even with Austin on the field, the Jets pass defense is still bad. Their top three perimeter corners have all performed incredibly poorly in 2020.

  • Blessuan Austin: 35.8 PFF coverage grade | 66.7% catch rate | 7.5 yards per target
  • Pierre Desir: 45.3 PFF coverage grade | 80.0% catch rate | 11.8 yards per target
  • Lamar Jackson: 39.0 PFF coverage grade | 84.6% catch rate | 15.7 yards per target

I expect that Parker will run most of his routes against Desir, but whoever he faces on any given snap, he will have a significant edge.

Parker is a low-end WR2 with playmaking WR1 upside in season-long leagues, and in DFS he’s a highly attractive tournament option, especially on FanDuel, where he has the No. 9 ceiling projection but the No. 18 positional salary.

You can use our FantasyLabs Correlations Tool to research the overlapping production of receivers and passers, and over the past year Parker and quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick have a 0.54 correlation. For tournaments, use our Lineup Builder to stack Parker with his passer.

On the Week 6 Fantasy Flex show, Parker was a receiver guest Pat Fitzmaurice specifically highlighted as someone he likes this week. We agree.

Parker is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Bales, CSURAM88, Koerner, Raybon, SportsGeek and Hodge Models for FanDuel.

Salaries: $6,300 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel

Damiere Byrd: New England Patriots (-10) vs. Denver Broncos (45 O/U)

This is the fourth straight week that Byrd has topped some of our Models — he didn’t even play last week.

There’s a glitch in the matrix.

Most of what I said in last week’s wide receiver breakdown still applies.

If you are in a deep league and desperate for a wide receiver available on waivers …

If you are looking for a min-priced punt play in DFS …

If you are fine knowing that you could get literally zero fantasy points from a player …

Then Byrd might be your man.

I like my life, so I’m extremely unlikely to roster Byrd, especially in DFS, where he’s now $500 more expensive, but I can see the case for him, because he’s a locked-in starter. Although he had zero targets in Week 1, he is 14-179-0 receiving on 22 targets over his past three games.

That’s actually good.

For the season, he has played a snap rate of 91.8% and run a route on 97.2% of the team’s drop backs. Those are elite numbers.

At a minimum, we can say this about Byrd: He will be on the field and in position to get targets. We just have to hope that he gets them and that they’re accurate.

In that regard, he’s actually very similar to teammate N’Keal Harry, who has failed to separate himself from Byrd in any meaningful way.

  • N’Keal Harry (four games): 18-166-1, 28 targets | 170 air yards | 0.47 WOPR
  • Damiere Byrd (four games): 14-179-0, 22 targets | 253 air yards | 0.47 WOPR

If you have any feelings of positivity for Harry, you should probably have similar feelings for Byrd. He’s Harry arbitrage: #Harbitrage.

Byrd has a few factors in his favor this week.

First, starting quarterback Cam Newton (COVID-19) is fully expected to play this weekend.

Second, the Pats are coming off a bye week, and even though it was a COVID-induced and last-minute bye, they have been preparing to face the Broncos for two weeks. Since 2004 (as far back as our database goes), Patriots HC Bill Belichick is 10-6-1 ATS (22.5% ROI) off the bye.

On top of that, the Pats are coming off their Week 4 loss to the Chiefs, and Belichick after a loss is an A-graded 41-15 ATS (45.2% ROI).



The Pats should be rested, ready and motivated against the Broncos, and that could benefit Byrd. You can bet on this game at William Hill.

Third, he has a good matchup: Opposing wide receiver units are No. 6 against the Broncos with 27.4 fantasy points per game on 67-794-5 receiving in four games.

They have been especially susceptible to big performances from ancillary perimeter receivers, the No. 2 options playing opposite the top receivers on the outside.

  • Corey Davis (Week 1): 17.1 PPR, 10.1 STD | 7-101-0, eight targets
  • Chase Claypool (Week 2): 17.8 PPR, 14.8 STD | 3-88-1, three targets
  • Scotty Miller (Week 3): 11.3 PPR, 8.3 STD | 3-83-0, five targets
  • Jeff Smith (Week 4): 15.1 PPR, 8.1 STD | 7-81-0, nine targets

Coming out of the Week 5 bye, the Broncos perhaps will have shored up their pass defense, but I doubt it. Without No. 1 cornerback A.J. Bouye (shoulder, IR), the Broncos are starting third-round rookie Michael Ojemudia on the perimeter, and he has put up a 53.9 PFF coverage grade through four games.

Against the supplementary receivers that are often overlooked, the Broncos are vulnerable.

With a handful of targets and a couple deep shots, Byrd could surprise, just as he did in Weeks 2 & 4 with 6-72-0 and 5-80-0 receiving.

As far as flyers go, Byrd at least has wings: He’s a deep play in season-long leagues and a tournament option likely to have a sub-5% exposure rate in DFS.

Byrd is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Koerner, Raybon, SportsGeek and Hodge Models for DraftKings.

Salaries: $3,000 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel

Darnell Mooney: Chicago Bears (+1.5) at Carolina Panthers, 45 O/U

Mooney is the knockoff version of Byrd — and that’s saying something.

Here’s the thing about knockoffs: Just because something is fake doesn’t mean it’s not as functional as the real thing.

Even though Mooney is a fifth-round rookie out of Tulane, he has been the co-No. 2 wide receiver this season with third-year slot man Anthony Miller.

  • Darnell Mooney (five games): 59% snap rate | 13% target share | 15-160-1, 25 targets | 370 AirYAC
  • Anthony Miller (five games): 50% snap rate | 12% target share | 13-162-2, 23 targets | 338 AirYAC

Mooney hasn’t been fantastically productive, but he’s at least on the field, running routes and getting targets.

What he really has going for him this week is the matchup: The Panthers might be down four defensive starters in this game. No. 1 edge rusher Brian Burns (concussion) exited Week 5 early and did not practice on Wednesday. And No. 1 defensive tackle Kawann Short (shoulder, IR) just had a season-ending surgery this week. Without them, the Panthers will likely struggle to put pressure on quarterback Nick Foles.

Additionally, No. 1 cornerback Donte Jackson (toe) has been dealing with an injury throughout the season, and he had to exit Week 5 early. Given that he was carted to the locker room, I’m pessimistic that he’ll play this week. And No. 2 cornerback Eli Apple (hamstring) is yet to suit up this season as he works his way back from a soft-tissue injury.

Without their two starting perimeter corners, the Panthers could be vulnerable in pass defense, especially deep downfield, and Mooney has the track-and-field speed (4.38-second 40-yard dash) to turn any busted coverage into a long touchdown.

A desperate dart throw in season-long leagues, Mooney is a differentiating cheap tournament play in DFS, especially as the “run-back piece” opposite Panthers stacks.

For the second time this year, Mooney is the No. 1 wide receiver in the CSURAM88 Model for DraftKings, where he has a position-high 99% Bargain Rating on account of his min-priced salary.

Salaries: $3,000 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel

Wide Receivers With Week-Winning Upside

In this section, I highlight some wide receivers I think will outperform expectations and whom I especially like as upside season-long and DFS tournament plays.

Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers (-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (55 O/U): The matchup is tough vs. future All-Pro corner Carlton Davis, but Adams (hamstring) is expected to be at full capacity this week and is arguably the NFL’s best wide receiver. With quarterback Aaron Rodgers, the Packers are an A-graded 113-78-5 ATS (15.7% ROI) …



… and they are 8-2-1 ATS (50.2% ROI) with Rodgers off the bye. Salaries: $8,000 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel

Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons (+4) at Minnesota Vikints (54.5 O/U): Even with his zero catches on five targets in Week 4, Ridley is No. 1 in the league with 177.2 AirYAC per game.

This game might be postponed because of the Falcons’ emerging COVID-19 situation, but Ridley has four 100-yard games on the season, and he could have amplified target volume without teammate Julio Jones (hamstring). Salaries: $7,800 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel

Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears (+1.5) at Carolina Panthers (45 O/U): The Panthers might be without top cornerbacks Donte Jackson (toe) and Eli Apple (hamstring), giving Robinson a potential matchup with fourth-round rookie backup Troy Pride Jr., who has a 43.7 PFF coverage grade and 12.7 yards per target allowed. Robinson has a blistering 31% target share in quarterback Nick Foles’ two starts. Salaries: $7,000 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel

Will Fuller, Houston Texans (+3.5) at Tennessee Titans (53 O/U): In a hamstring-impacted Week 2, Fuller crushed investors with a zero-target performance, but he is still 22-332-3 receiving on the year with either 100 yards or a touchdown in every other game. He’s risky …

… but the Titans are without No. 1 cornerback Adoree’ Jackson (knee, IR) and starting corners Johnathan Joseph (hamstring) and Chris Jackson (hamstring) are both dealing with injuries. Salaries: $6,800 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel

Robby Anderson, Carolina Panthers (-1.5) vs. Chicago Bears (45 O/U): Is one tweet sufficient?

Maybe one more tweet?

I think that’s good enough. Salaries: $6,300 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel

Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (54.5 O/U): The Jags are No. 32 with a 44.1% pass-defense DVOA and might be without cornerbacks C.J. Henderson (shoulder) and D.J. Hayden (hamstring). Under offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell, Golladay has exhibited notable (albeit small-sampled) splits with quarterback Matthew Stafford (per RotoViz Game Splits App).

Salaries: $6,200 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel

Jamison Crowder, New York Jets (+9.5) at Miami Dolphins (47 O/U): In each of his three games this year Crowder has 100-plus yards and 10-plus targets, and since joining the Jets, he has had notable splits with real quarterbacks (in other words, without someone like backup Luke Falk).

Crowder has a strong matchup against slot cornerback Nik Needham, an undrafted second-year backup who has allowed 785 yards and nine touchdowns on 87 targets and limited action in his career. Salaries: $6,100 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel

Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings (-4) vs. Atlanta Falcons (54.5 O/U): Since moving from the slot to the perimeter in Week 3, Jefferson is 14-301-1 receiving on 19 targets and has almost matched No. 1 receiver Adam Thielen in AirYAC (392 vs. 375). This game might not play on Sunday because of the Falcons’ COVID-19 situation, but the matchup for Jefferson is fantastic, as outlined above in the analysis for Thielen. Salaries: $6,000 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel

D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers (-1.5) vs. Chicago Bears (45 O/U): On the one hand, Moore is pacing for the most disappointing 1,200-yard season in NFL history. On the other hand, Moore is pacing for his second straight 1,200-yard season and he’s just 23 years old. Salaries: $5,900 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel

A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans (-3.5) vs. Houston Texans (53 O/U): In Week 5, Brown returned from a knee injury with 7-82-1 receiving, and for the year he has a 25% target share despite exiting Week 1 early. With his beautifully broad shoulders, Brown should be able to shrug off the shadow coverage of cornerback Bradley Roby, who has allowed 8.5 yards per target since 2018. Salaries: $5,600 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel

Julian Edelman, New England Patriots (-10) vs. Denver Broncos (45 O/U): With quarterback Cam Newton (COVID-19) expected to return, Edelman might regain his form from Weeks 1-3, when he was 15-259-0 receiving, No. 1 in the league with a 52% market share of air yards and No. 3 with a 0.77 WOPR. Edelman has a delicious matchup against undrafted rookie slot corner Essang Bassey, who has a 47.2 PFF coverage grade and has allowed 8.6 yards per target with an 85.7% completion rate. Salaries: $5,600 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel

Laviska Shenault Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) vs. Detroit Lions, 54.5 O/U: I will probably have Shenault in this section all year long, and I don’t apologize. No. 1 wide receiver D.J. Chark (ankle) is uncertain to play, and the Lions have always been vulnerable against the pass under defense-focused head coach Matt Patricia.

  • 2018: 66.8 PFF coverage grade (29th)
  • 2019: 50.3 PFF coverage grade (27th)
  • 2020: 43.7 PFF coverage grade (27th)

Salaries: $5,200 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel

Chase Claypool, Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) vs. Cleveland Browns, 51 O/U: Am I late for the ceremony? From where I live, it’s a long drive to Canton.

Salaries: $5,200 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel

Marvin Jones, Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (54.5 O/U): The veteran has just five targets since No. 1 wide receiver Kenny Golladay returned in Week 3, but the boom-or-bust receiver is just about due for a big out-of-nowhere game.

Assuming that cornerbacks C.J. Henderson (shoulder) and D.J. Hayden (hamstring) are out, Jones has a luscious matchup against backup seventh-round rookie Chris Claybrooks, who just allowed an 8-161-1 receiving performance to Brandin Cooks as the receiver’s primary defender. Salaries: $5,100 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel

T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts (-7.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (46.5 O/U): Over the past two weeks, Hilton has a 25% target share without teammates Parris Campbell (knee, IR) and Michael Pittman (calf, IR). If cornerback Mackensie Alexander (hamstring) misses his third straight game, Hilton will likely face injury fill-in LeShaun Sims, against whom Marquise Brown compiled most of his 6-77-1 receiving line last week. Salaries: $5,000 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel

Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) at Indianapolis Colts (46.5 O/U): Veteran A.J. Green (hamstring) exited Week 5 early and is uncertain for Week 6. In the wake of his 5-40-2 receiving performance in Week 3, Higgins has team-high marks with a 23% share of targets and 36% share of air yards over the past two games. Salaries: $4,700 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel

Travis Fulgham, Philadelphia Eagles (+7.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens (47.5 O/U): I can’t not write a blurb on Fulgham, who has flashed over the past two weeks with 12-209-2 receiving on 16 targets. At the same time, I also can’t not mention that he’s likely to run most of his routes against two-time All-Pro cornerback Marcus Peters, who has allowed only 6.8 yards per target since joining the Ravens last year. Salaries: $4,400 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel

Curtis Samuel, Carolina Panthers (-1.5) vs. Chicago Bears (45 O/U): Three Panthers wide receivers? In this economy? Salaries: $4,300 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel

Olamide Zaccheaus, Atlanta Falcons (+4) at Minnesota Vikints (54.5 O/U): “I hurt myself today to see if I still feel. I focus on the pain, the only thing that’s real.” Salaries: $3,200 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel

Jeff Smith, New York Jets (+9.5) at Miami Dolphins (47 O/U): As a fill-in starter over the past two weeks, Smith has team-high marks with a 27% share of targets and 32% share of air yards. Even with teammate Breshad Perriman (ankle) expected to play, Smith should continue to start due to the injury to fellow perimeter receiver Chris Hogan (ankle, IR). Salaries: $3,000 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel



Matthew Freedman is 648-519-26 (55.5%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.

The Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs, Freedman is commonly called the Oracle & the Labyrinthian.

Pictured above: 
Photo credit: 

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

Undervalued Rookie RBs and WRs for 2018 DFS Raybon’s Week 12 NFL DFS Breakdown: Packers-Vikings Sunday Night Showdown Giants-Cowboys-Sunday-Night-NFL-DFSNFL Wild Card Saturday Cheat Sheet: Fantasy, Betting, More for Colts-Texans & Seahawks-Cowboys Jack DoyleWeek 9 Fantasy TE Breakdown: Jack Doyle, Party Like It’s 2017?

The Week 6 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Oct. 18, at 1 p.m. ET.

In this piece, I highlight wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically our FantasyLabs Models.

New NFL DFS Trial Offer: Try our new football subscription for $4.95 and get access to our industry-leading tools and projections.

Top Wide Receivers in the FantasyLabs Models

There are five wide receivers atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek), Ryan Hodge and I have constructed.

Here’s where they place within our Week 6 fantasy football rankings (as of Thursday afternoon).

  • Adam Thielen: No. 3 (PPR) | No. 3 (Half PPR) | No. 4 (Standard)
  • Terry McLaurin: No. 12 (PPR) | No. 12 (Half PPR) | No. 13 (Standard)
  • DeVante Parker: No. 22 (PPR) | No. 22 (Half PPR) | No. 20 (Standard)
  • Damiere Byrd: No. 55 (PPR) | No. 52 (Half PPR) | No. 51 (Standard)
  • Darnell Mooney: No. 61 (PPR) | No. 62 (Half PPR) | No. 64 (Standard)

FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns

Check in throughout the week as I publish the rest of the positional breakdowns.

For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network. For updates, see our FantasyLabs News Feed.

Odds as of Thursday afternoon and via DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus today.

Adam Thielen: Minnesota Vikings (-4) vs. Atlanta Falcons (54.5 O/U)

UPDATE (Fri. 10/15, 9:30 am ET): After writing the Thielen section but before publishing this piece, I saw news breaks that the Falcons are dealing with what might be a schedule-altering COVID-19 situation.

There’s a chance now that this game will not play on Sunday. Be sure to monitor.

I wasn’t high on Thielen entering the year, but he’s a top-five fantasy receiver with 21.0 PPR and 15.2 standard points per game. He’s getting the job done.

One of my preseason concerns with Thielen was that the Vikings would have a slow run-heavy offense and that their No. 1 receiver would see fewer targets than he otherwise would.

I was maybe halfway right. The Vikings are No. 30 in situation-neutral pace with 31.91 second per play (per Football Outsiders), and they are No. 4 with a 50.3% rush-play rate.

The Vikings in fact do have a slow run-heavy offense.

But Thielen has still gotten his opportunities thanks to a league-high 33% market share of targets (per RotoViz NFL Player Statistical Summary).

Now, it’s not as if his 8.8 targets per game is an obscenely high number. That ranks No. 16 in the NFL.

But the quality of his targets is nearly unrivaled, as he ranks No. 2 with seven end-zone targets and No. 3 with 13 red-zone targets (per Pro Football Focus).

With this kind of usage, it’s not a surprise that Thielen leads the league with six touchdowns receiving.

Additionally, quarterback Kirk Cousins is targeting him farther downfield, based on his averaged depth of target (aDOT).

  • 2020 aDOT: 14.8
  • 2019 aDOT: 13.8
  • 2018 aDOT: 10.0

With the enhanced opportunity to turn each target into more yards, Thielen isn’t just a touchdown-dependent receiver. He has a real chance each game to produce a top-end yardage total, as evidenced by his No. 9 ranking with 133.8 air yards and yards after the catch (AirYAC) per game.

AirYAC is a leading and simple-to-understand indicator of fantasy output. You can find it at RotoViz.

And then there’s this: Thielen is No. 1 in the league with a 0.80 WOPR.

WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating) is a stat created by Josh Hermsmeyer. It combines target share and air-yard share and is available at AirYards.com.

Because Thielen doesn’t have elite target volume, he’s more prone to the vicissitudes of randomness that accompanies receiving output. He’s been a boom-or-bust producer this year (per RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).

But given the totality of his usage — his targets in or near the end zone and down the field — his production is sustainable.

For this week, Thielen has two big factors in his favor.

First, the Vikings have a slate-high 29-point implied Vegas total. They should put up points, which means Thielen could be a candidate for multiple touchdowns.

Second, Thielen has a good matchup against the Falcons, who are No. 30 in Football Outsiders’ pass-defense DVOA metric with a mark of 25.0%.

Perimeter receivers comparable to Thielen in talent and usage have dominated the Falcons this year.

  • D.K. Metcalf (Week 1): 19.5 PPR, 15.5 STD | 4-95-1, eight targets
  • Amari Cooper (Week 2): 16.0 PPR, 10.0 STD | 6-100-0, nine targets
  • Allen Robinson (Week 3): 28.3 PPR, 18.3 STD | 10-123-1, 13 targets
  • Davante Adams (Week 4): Injured, missed game
  • Robby Anderson (Week 5): 19.5 PPR, 11.5 STD | 8-112-0, 13 targets | 1-3-0 rushing
  • D.J. Moore (Week 5):19.3 PPR, 15.3 STD | 4-93-1, five targets

On top of that, the Falcons secondary is without two starters in slot cornerback Darqueze Dennard (hamstring, IR) and safety Damontae Kazee (Achilles, IR). This already thin unit is starting to starve.

Of the 22 teams playing on the Sunday main slate, the Falcons have allowed the most WR1/2 fantasy performances this year with seven.

Full disclosure: I’m 100% betting on the Vikings. They have struggled to a 1-4 record, but this is a get-right spot.

Since head coach Mike Zimmer joined the team in 2014, the Vikings are 63-37-1 against the spread (ATS) in the regular season, good for an A-graded 22.2% return on investment (ROI, per our Bet Labs database).

And as you might expect with an ATS record that good, Zimmer has exhibited all sorts of regular-season edges throughout his tenure.

  • At home: 30-16-1 ATS | 30.8% ROI
  • As favorite: 36-20-1 | 24.9% ROI
  • Outside of division: 45-18-1 | 38.2% ROI

These trends make sense within the context of who Zimmer is as a coach and what kind of team the Vikings have been under him.

Zimmer is a focused, no-nonsense, risk-adverse, process-oriented, defense-directed “manager” (for lack of a better word), and the Vikings have historically been a disciplined team that doesn’t often make big mistakes.

They don’t waste the natural advantage they have at home. They don’t play down to the level of their underdog opponents. They don’t present a known and easy challenge to teams that aren’t familiar with them.

This week, the Vikings are in a “solar eclipse” spot with all of Zimmer’s historical edges lining up.

As non-divisional home favorites, the Vikings are 19-4-1 ATS (59% ROI).



Heaven let your light shine down. [Insert guitar riff.] You can bet on this game at DraftKings.

This week Thielen is a high-end WR1 in season-long leagues and a strong candidate for cash games and guaranteed prize pools in DFS. He leads all wide receivers with his median, ceiling and floor projections in our Models.

Thielen is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Freedman Model for FanDuel, where he has a position-high +5.01 Projected Plus/Minus.

Salaries: $7,300 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel

Terry McLaurin: Washington Football Team (+2.5) at New York Giants (43 O/U)

To open the year, McLaurin has faced an all-time brutal schedule of opposing No. 1 cornerbacks.

  • Week 1: Darius Slay
  • Week 2: Patrick Peterson
  • Week 3: Denzel Ward
  • Week 4: Marcus Peters
  • Week 5: Jalen Ramsey

He hasn’t run all his routes against these five defenders, but the point stands that McLaurin has had it worse than any other wide receiver to start the year.

And now he has another tough matchup against cornerback James Bradberry. McLaurin must have angered the football gods in a previous life.

A physical press-man defender, Bradberry has been used in shadow coverage over the past four weeks, and he has played well, allowing just 11-110-0 receiving and 5.2 yards per target while breaking up six passes and grabbing an interception.

In his first season with the Giants, he has been a lone bright spot for the defense, putting up an 87.3 PFF coverage grade. No other key contributor in the secondary has a mark of even 60. Given how poorly the rest of the secondary is playing, it seems highly like that Bradberry will shadow McLaurin.

And that’s bad news for the second-year receiver.

In Week 5, Amari Cooper was just 2-23-0 on four targets while spending most of the game in Bradberry’s shadow. Against Bradberry specifically, Cooper had eight yards on three targets.

Bradberry will present a significant challenge to McLaurin, who himself was just 3-26-0 receiving on seven targets last week.

<Grinds tape for 30 minutes.>

You know, it seems maybe the quarterback combination of Kyle Allen and Alex Smith isn’t a net positive for McLaurin after all.

But McLaurin still has sky-high upside: He’s No. 5 with 140.8 AirYAC and No. 12 with 82.6 yards receiving per game.

He has seven-plus targets in every game this year, and in Weeks 1-4 he was dominant.

  • Week 1 (vs. PHI): 11.1 PPR, 6.1 STD | 5-61-0, seven targets
  • Week 2 (at ARI): 25.5 PPR, 18.5 STD | 7-125-1, 10 targets
  • Week 3 (at CLE): 12.6 PPR, 8.6 STD | 4-83-0, eight targets | 1-3-0 rushing
  • Week 4 (vs. BAL): 21.8 PPR, 11.8 STD | 10-118-0, 14 targets

It’s hard to know if McLaurin’s Week 5 letdown was due to the matchup, the lack of quarterback Dwayne Haskins or just randomness.

But my general sense is that Haskins isn’t overly crucial to McLaurin’s production, based on his 2019 rookie campaign.

  • Weeks 9-16 with Haskins (seven games): 30-461-2 receiving, 47 targets
  • Weeks 1-8 with Case Keenum & Colt McCoy (seven games): 28-458-5 receiving, 46 targets

McLaurin’s 2019 splits with and without Haskins were almost identical with the exception of three touchdowns — and touchdowns are very random.

Whether it was Haskins, Keenum or McCoy throwing to him, McLaurin was basically the same receiver.

Shower narrative, no more. Shower narrative, no such thing.

And it seems far from certain that Allen is a downgrade on Haskins or is bad enough to prevent McLaurin from producing. Last year, D.J. Moore was 87-1,175-4 receiving in his second season, and that was with 109 of his 135 targets coming from Allen.

Bottom line: McLaurin went off against Peterson in Week 2 and the vaunted Ravens secondary in Week 4, and he did that with Haskins, who is quickly on his way to Bustville. There’s probably an underappreciated chance that McLaurin goes off against Bradberry without Haskins this week.

From a sports-betting perspective, the Footballers intrigue me this week for a couple reasons.

First, I’ve noticed that road underdogs tend to outperform when they play within their division.

  • Divisional Road Dogs: 543-476-33 ATS | 3.9% ROI
  • Non-Divisional Road Dogs: 907-888-56 ATS | -1.3% ROI

A 3.8% ROI might not seem like much, but over a sample this large it’s significant. And we can dig further into this sample to discover more value.

I have this theory: Early in the year, when divisional opponents tend to face each other for the first time, road dogs have an undeniable edge relative to the market. Later in the year, when division rivals are more familiar with each other and their markets are more efficient, road dogs are disadvantaged when they meet for the rematch.

At least that’s my theory, and it’s borne out by the regular-season numbers.

  • Divisional Road Dogs (Sep. – Nov.): 357-282-23 ATS | 8.8% ROI
  • Divisional Road Dogs (Dec. – Jan.): 186-194-10 ATS | -4.6% ROI

In the middle of October, the Football Team is in the sweet spot of this trend.



On top of that, regular-season visitors are an astounding 48-32-2 ATS (17.1% ROI) against the Giants since they moved into MetLife Stadium in 2010.

In a season in which home-field advantage is minimal, the Giants might actually have a home-field deficit if the past is any indication. You can bet on this game at FanDuel.

McLaurin is a high-end WR2 with volume-fueled WR1 upside in season-long leagues, and in DFS he’s a viable tournament option. As it happens, McLaurin is the No. 1 receiver in Josh Hermsmeyer’s Week 6 Air Yards Buy-Low Model.

He seems especially rosterable on DraftKings, where he’s the No. 1 receiver in the Bales and Freedman Models and has the No. 7 median and ceiling projections at the No. 20 wide receiver salary.

Salaries: $5,700 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel

DeVante Parker: Miami Dolphins (-9.5) vs. New York Jets (47 O/U)

A surprise breakout last year with 72-1,202-9 receiving, Parker has had an up-and-down 2020.

  • Week 1 (at NE): 8.7 PPR, 4.7 STD | 4-47-0, four targets
  • Week 2 (vs. BUF): 16.3 PPR, 11.3 STD | 5-53-1, eight targets
  • Week 3 (at JAX): 11.9 PPR, 6.9 STD | 5-69-0, five targets
  • Week 4 (vs. SEA): 21.0 PPR, 11.0 STD | 10-110-0, 12 targets
  • Week 5 (at SF): 13.0 PPR, 11.0 STD | 2-50-1, three targets

Some contextualization is in order.

In Week 1, Parker aggravated a preexisting hamstring injury and left the game early. In Week 2, he was a true game-time decision and was still hampered by his hamstring. Week 1 is not representative, and Week 2 might not be either.

In Weeks 3-5, though, he was 17-229-1 receiving on 20 targets, which put him on pace for a 1,200-yard performance over 16 games. Setting aside his early-season injury, Parker has basically been the same guy this year that he was last year.

And now he gets to face the Jets, who are No. 31 with a 41.7 PFF coverage grade.

They faced a receiver-less 49ers team in Week 2 and a Philip Rivers-led team in Week 3, but if we set those games aside we see that the Jets have been dominated by most perimeter receivers they’ve faced.

  • Stefon Diggs (Week 1): 16.6 PPR, 8.6 STD | 8-86-0, nine targets
  • John Brown (Week 1): 19.0 PPR, 13.0 STD | 6-70-1, 10 targets
  • Tim Patrick (Week 4): 23.3 PPR, 17.3 STD | 6-113-1, seven targets
  • DeAndre Hopkins (Week 5): 25.1 PPR, 19.1 STD | 6-131-1, seven targets
  • Christian Kirk (Week 5): 12.8 PPR, 7.8 STD | 5-78-0, seven targets

It hurts that they have been without starting cornerback Blessuan Austin (calf) over the past two weeks, because in his place undrafted rookie Lamar Jackson (aka “The Other L-Jax”) has been exploited, allowing 11-204-1 receiving on 13 targets.

But even with Austin on the field, the Jets pass defense is still bad. Their top three perimeter corners have all performed incredibly poorly in 2020.

  • Blessuan Austin: 35.8 PFF coverage grade | 66.7% catch rate | 7.5 yards per target
  • Pierre Desir: 45.3 PFF coverage grade | 80.0% catch rate | 11.8 yards per target
  • Lamar Jackson: 39.0 PFF coverage grade | 84.6% catch rate | 15.7 yards per target

I expect that Parker will run most of his routes against Desir, but whoever he faces on any given snap, he will have a significant edge.

Parker is a low-end WR2 with playmaking WR1 upside in season-long leagues, and in DFS he’s a highly attractive tournament option, especially on FanDuel, where he has the No. 9 ceiling projection but the No. 18 positional salary.

You can use our FantasyLabs Correlations Tool to research the overlapping production of receivers and passers, and over the past year Parker and quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick have a 0.54 correlation. For tournaments, use our Lineup Builder to stack Parker with his passer.

On the Week 6 Fantasy Flex show, Parker was a receiver guest Pat Fitzmaurice specifically highlighted as someone he likes this week. We agree.

Parker is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Bales, CSURAM88, Koerner, Raybon, SportsGeek and Hodge Models for FanDuel.

Salaries: $6,300 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel

Damiere Byrd: New England Patriots (-10) vs. Denver Broncos (45 O/U)

This is the fourth straight week that Byrd has topped some of our Models — he didn’t even play last week.

There’s a glitch in the matrix.

Most of what I said in last week’s wide receiver breakdown still applies.

If you are in a deep league and desperate for a wide receiver available on waivers …

If you are looking for a min-priced punt play in DFS …

If you are fine knowing that you could get literally zero fantasy points from a player …

Then Byrd might be your man.

I like my life, so I’m extremely unlikely to roster Byrd, especially in DFS, where he’s now $500 more expensive, but I can see the case for him, because he’s a locked-in starter. Although he had zero targets in Week 1, he is 14-179-0 receiving on 22 targets over his past three games.

That’s actually good.

For the season, he has played a snap rate of 91.8% and run a route on 97.2% of the team’s drop backs. Those are elite numbers.

At a minimum, we can say this about Byrd: He will be on the field and in position to get targets. We just have to hope that he gets them and that they’re accurate.

In that regard, he’s actually very similar to teammate N’Keal Harry, who has failed to separate himself from Byrd in any meaningful way.

  • N’Keal Harry (four games): 18-166-1, 28 targets | 170 air yards | 0.47 WOPR
  • Damiere Byrd (four games): 14-179-0, 22 targets | 253 air yards | 0.47 WOPR

If you have any feelings of positivity for Harry, you should probably have similar feelings for Byrd. He’s Harry arbitrage: #Harbitrage.

Byrd has a few factors in his favor this week.

First, starting quarterback Cam Newton (COVID-19) is fully expected to play this weekend.

Second, the Pats are coming off a bye week, and even though it was a COVID-induced and last-minute bye, they have been preparing to face the Broncos for two weeks. Since 2004 (as far back as our database goes), Patriots HC Bill Belichick is 10-6-1 ATS (22.5% ROI) off the bye.

On top of that, the Pats are coming off their Week 4 loss to the Chiefs, and Belichick after a loss is an A-graded 41-15 ATS (45.2% ROI).



The Pats should be rested, ready and motivated against the Broncos, and that could benefit Byrd. You can bet on this game at William Hill.

Third, he has a good matchup: Opposing wide receiver units are No. 6 against the Broncos with 27.4 fantasy points per game on 67-794-5 receiving in four games.

They have been especially susceptible to big performances from ancillary perimeter receivers, the No. 2 options playing opposite the top receivers on the outside.

  • Corey Davis (Week 1): 17.1 PPR, 10.1 STD | 7-101-0, eight targets
  • Chase Claypool (Week 2): 17.8 PPR, 14.8 STD | 3-88-1, three targets
  • Scotty Miller (Week 3): 11.3 PPR, 8.3 STD | 3-83-0, five targets
  • Jeff Smith (Week 4): 15.1 PPR, 8.1 STD | 7-81-0, nine targets

Coming out of the Week 5 bye, the Broncos perhaps will have shored up their pass defense, but I doubt it. Without No. 1 cornerback A.J. Bouye (shoulder, IR), the Broncos are starting third-round rookie Michael Ojemudia on the perimeter, and he has put up a 53.9 PFF coverage grade through four games.

Against the supplementary receivers that are often overlooked, the Broncos are vulnerable.

With a handful of targets and a couple deep shots, Byrd could surprise, just as he did in Weeks 2 & 4 with 6-72-0 and 5-80-0 receiving.

As far as flyers go, Byrd at least has wings: He’s a deep play in season-long leagues and a tournament option likely to have a sub-5% exposure rate in DFS.

Byrd is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Koerner, Raybon, SportsGeek and Hodge Models for DraftKings.

Salaries: $3,000 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel

Darnell Mooney: Chicago Bears (+1.5) at Carolina Panthers, 45 O/U

Mooney is the knockoff version of Byrd — and that’s saying something.

Here’s the thing about knockoffs: Just because something is fake doesn’t mean it’s not as functional as the real thing.

Even though Mooney is a fifth-round rookie out of Tulane, he has been the co-No. 2 wide receiver this season with third-year slot man Anthony Miller.

  • Darnell Mooney (five games): 59% snap rate | 13% target share | 15-160-1, 25 targets | 370 AirYAC
  • Anthony Miller (five games): 50% snap rate | 12% target share | 13-162-2, 23 targets | 338 AirYAC

Mooney hasn’t been fantastically productive, but he’s at least on the field, running routes and getting targets.

What he really has going for him this week is the matchup: The Panthers might be down four defensive starters in this game. No. 1 edge rusher Brian Burns (concussion) exited Week 5 early and did not practice on Wednesday. And No. 1 defensive tackle Kawann Short (shoulder, IR) just had a season-ending surgery this week. Without them, the Panthers will likely struggle to put pressure on quarterback Nick Foles.

Additionally, No. 1 cornerback Donte Jackson (toe) has been dealing with an injury throughout the season, and he had to exit Week 5 early. Given that he was carted to the locker room, I’m pessimistic that he’ll play this week. And No. 2 cornerback Eli Apple (hamstring) is yet to suit up this season as he works his way back from a soft-tissue injury.

Without their two starting perimeter corners, the Panthers could be vulnerable in pass defense, especially deep downfield, and Mooney has the track-and-field speed (4.38-second 40-yard dash) to turn any busted coverage into a long touchdown.

A desperate dart throw in season-long leagues, Mooney is a differentiating cheap tournament play in DFS, especially as the “run-back piece” opposite Panthers stacks.

For the second time this year, Mooney is the No. 1 wide receiver in the CSURAM88 Model for DraftKings, where he has a position-high 99% Bargain Rating on account of his min-priced salary.

Salaries: $3,000 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel

Wide Receivers With Week-Winning Upside

In this section, I highlight some wide receivers I think will outperform expectations and whom I especially like as upside season-long and DFS tournament plays.

Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers (-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (55 O/U): The matchup is tough vs. future All-Pro corner Carlton Davis, but Adams (hamstring) is expected to be at full capacity this week and is arguably the NFL’s best wide receiver. With quarterback Aaron Rodgers, the Packers are an A-graded 113-78-5 ATS (15.7% ROI) …



… and they are 8-2-1 ATS (50.2% ROI) with Rodgers off the bye. Salaries: $8,000 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel

Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons (+4) at Minnesota Vikints (54.5 O/U): Even with his zero catches on five targets in Week 4, Ridley is No. 1 in the league with 177.2 AirYAC per game.

This game might be postponed because of the Falcons’ emerging COVID-19 situation, but Ridley has four 100-yard games on the season, and he could have amplified target volume without teammate Julio Jones (hamstring). Salaries: $7,800 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel

Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears (+1.5) at Carolina Panthers (45 O/U): The Panthers might be without top cornerbacks Donte Jackson (toe) and Eli Apple (hamstring), giving Robinson a potential matchup with fourth-round rookie backup Troy Pride Jr., who has a 43.7 PFF coverage grade and 12.7 yards per target allowed. Robinson has a blistering 31% target share in quarterback Nick Foles’ two starts. Salaries: $7,000 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel

Will Fuller, Houston Texans (+3.5) at Tennessee Titans (53 O/U): In a hamstring-impacted Week 2, Fuller crushed investors with a zero-target performance, but he is still 22-332-3 receiving on the year with either 100 yards or a touchdown in every other game. He’s risky …

… but the Titans are without No. 1 cornerback Adoree’ Jackson (knee, IR) and starting corners Johnathan Joseph (hamstring) and Chris Jackson (hamstring) are both dealing with injuries. Salaries: $6,800 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel

Robby Anderson, Carolina Panthers (-1.5) vs. Chicago Bears (45 O/U): Is one tweet sufficient?

Maybe one more tweet?

I think that’s good enough. Salaries: $6,300 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel

Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (54.5 O/U): The Jags are No. 32 with a 44.1% pass-defense DVOA and might be without cornerbacks C.J. Henderson (shoulder) and D.J. Hayden (hamstring). Under offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell, Golladay has exhibited notable (albeit small-sampled) splits with quarterback Matthew Stafford (per RotoViz Game Splits App).

Salaries: $6,200 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel

Jamison Crowder, New York Jets (+9.5) at Miami Dolphins (47 O/U): In each of his three games this year Crowder has 100-plus yards and 10-plus targets, and since joining the Jets, he has had notable splits with real quarterbacks (in other words, without someone like backup Luke Falk).

Crowder has a strong matchup against slot cornerback Nik Needham, an undrafted second-year backup who has allowed 785 yards and nine touchdowns on 87 targets and limited action in his career. Salaries: $6,100 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel

Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings (-4) vs. Atlanta Falcons (54.5 O/U): Since moving from the slot to the perimeter in Week 3, Jefferson is 14-301-1 receiving on 19 targets and has almost matched No. 1 receiver Adam Thielen in AirYAC (392 vs. 375). This game might not play on Sunday because of the Falcons’ COVID-19 situation, but the matchup for Jefferson is fantastic, as outlined above in the analysis for Thielen. Salaries: $6,000 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel

D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers (-1.5) vs. Chicago Bears (45 O/U): On the one hand, Moore is pacing for the most disappointing 1,200-yard season in NFL history. On the other hand, Moore is pacing for his second straight 1,200-yard season and he’s just 23 years old. Salaries: $5,900 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel

A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans (-3.5) vs. Houston Texans (53 O/U): In Week 5, Brown returned from a knee injury with 7-82-1 receiving, and for the year he has a 25% target share despite exiting Week 1 early. With his beautifully broad shoulders, Brown should be able to shrug off the shadow coverage of cornerback Bradley Roby, who has allowed 8.5 yards per target since 2018. Salaries: $5,600 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel

Julian Edelman, New England Patriots (-10) vs. Denver Broncos (45 O/U): With quarterback Cam Newton (COVID-19) expected to return, Edelman might regain his form from Weeks 1-3, when he was 15-259-0 receiving, No. 1 in the league with a 52% market share of air yards and No. 3 with a 0.77 WOPR. Edelman has a delicious matchup against undrafted rookie slot corner Essang Bassey, who has a 47.2 PFF coverage grade and has allowed 8.6 yards per target with an 85.7% completion rate. Salaries: $5,600 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel

Laviska Shenault Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) vs. Detroit Lions, 54.5 O/U: I will probably have Shenault in this section all year long, and I don’t apologize. No. 1 wide receiver D.J. Chark (ankle) is uncertain to play, and the Lions have always been vulnerable against the pass under defense-focused head coach Matt Patricia.

  • 2018: 66.8 PFF coverage grade (29th)
  • 2019: 50.3 PFF coverage grade (27th)
  • 2020: 43.7 PFF coverage grade (27th)

Salaries: $5,200 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel

Chase Claypool, Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) vs. Cleveland Browns, 51 O/U: Am I late for the ceremony? From where I live, it’s a long drive to Canton.

Salaries: $5,200 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel

Marvin Jones, Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (54.5 O/U): The veteran has just five targets since No. 1 wide receiver Kenny Golladay returned in Week 3, but the boom-or-bust receiver is just about due for a big out-of-nowhere game.

Assuming that cornerbacks C.J. Henderson (shoulder) and D.J. Hayden (hamstring) are out, Jones has a luscious matchup against backup seventh-round rookie Chris Claybrooks, who just allowed an 8-161-1 receiving performance to Brandin Cooks as the receiver’s primary defender. Salaries: $5,100 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel

T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts (-7.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (46.5 O/U): Over the past two weeks, Hilton has a 25% target share without teammates Parris Campbell (knee, IR) and Michael Pittman (calf, IR). If cornerback Mackensie Alexander (hamstring) misses his third straight game, Hilton will likely face injury fill-in LeShaun Sims, against whom Marquise Brown compiled most of his 6-77-1 receiving line last week. Salaries: $5,000 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel

Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) at Indianapolis Colts (46.5 O/U): Veteran A.J. Green (hamstring) exited Week 5 early and is uncertain for Week 6. In the wake of his 5-40-2 receiving performance in Week 3, Higgins has team-high marks with a 23% share of targets and 36% share of air yards over the past two games. Salaries: $4,700 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel

Travis Fulgham, Philadelphia Eagles (+7.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens (47.5 O/U): I can’t not write a blurb on Fulgham, who has flashed over the past two weeks with 12-209-2 receiving on 16 targets. At the same time, I also can’t not mention that he’s likely to run most of his routes against two-time All-Pro cornerback Marcus Peters, who has allowed only 6.8 yards per target since joining the Ravens last year. Salaries: $4,400 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel

Curtis Samuel, Carolina Panthers (-1.5) vs. Chicago Bears (45 O/U): Three Panthers wide receivers? In this economy? Salaries: $4,300 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel

Olamide Zaccheaus, Atlanta Falcons (+4) at Minnesota Vikints (54.5 O/U): “I hurt myself today to see if I still feel. I focus on the pain, the only thing that’s real.” Salaries: $3,200 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel

Jeff Smith, New York Jets (+9.5) at Miami Dolphins (47 O/U): As a fill-in starter over the past two weeks, Smith has team-high marks with a 27% share of targets and 32% share of air yards. Even with teammate Breshad Perriman (ankle) expected to play, Smith should continue to start due to the injury to fellow perimeter receiver Chris Hogan (ankle, IR). Salaries: $3,000 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel



Matthew Freedman is 648-519-26 (55.5%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.

The Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs, Freedman is commonly called the Oracle & the Labyrinthian.

Pictured above: 
Photo credit: 

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

Undervalued Rookie RBs and WRs for 2018 DFS Raybon’s Week 12 NFL DFS Breakdown: Packers-Vikings Sunday Night Showdown Giants-Cowboys-Sunday-Night-NFL-DFSNFL Wild Card Saturday Cheat Sheet: Fantasy, Betting, More for Colts-Texans & Seahawks-Cowboys Jack DoyleWeek 9 Fantasy TE Breakdown: Jack Doyle, Party Like It’s 2017?

About the Author

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. The only edge he has in anything is his knowledge of '90s music.