The Week 6 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Oct. 18, at 1 p.m. ET.
In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically our FantasyLabs Models.
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Top Running Backs in the FantasyLabs Models
There are three running backs atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek), Ryan Hodge and I have constructed.
Here’s where they place within our Week 6 fantasy football rankings (as of Wednesday evening).
- Derrick Henry: No. 3 (PPR) | No. 1 (Half PPR) | No. 1 (Standard)
- Ronald Jones II: No. 10 (PPR) | No. 10 (Half PPR) | No. 9 (Standard)
- James Robinson: No. 11 (PPR) | No. 11 (Half PPR) | No. 11 (Standard)
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
Check in throughout the week as I publish the rest of the positional breakdowns.
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network. For updates, see our FantasyLabs News Feed.
Odds as of Wednesday evening and via DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus today.
Derrick Henry: Tennessee Titans (-3.5) vs. Houston Texans, 53.5 O/U
Henry has not been great this year, averaging just 3.7 yards per carry and 3.2 yards per target.
And yet he has 408 yards and four touchdowns from scrimmage in four contests and is No. 2 at the position with 22.6 expected fantasy points per game (per RotoViz NFL Player Statistical Summary).
That’s what happens when a guy gets 101 carries and 10 targets. Even when Henry’s not good, he’s still good enough.
- Week 1 (at DEN): 16.1 PPR, 13.1 STD | 31-116-0 | 3-15-0, three targets
- Week 2 (vs. JAX): 8.4 PPR, 8.4 STD | 25-84-0 | 0-0-0, two targets
- Week 3 (at MIN): 27.0 PPR, 25.0 STD | 26-119-2 | 2-11-0, three targets
- Week 5 (vs. BUF): 19.3 PPR, 18.3 STD | 19-57-2 | 1-6-0, two targets
Last year, Henry had a league-best 303-1,540-16 rushing line, and he’s the NFL’s only player with 1,000-10 campaigns on the ground in each of the past two seasons.
In Week 14 of 2018, the Titans finally unleashed Henry and let the Big Dog roam. In all 26 games since then, Henry has had no fewer than 16 touches. Over that span, he has averaged 20.7 PPR and 19.5 standard points, 124.1 yards and 1.19 touchdowns on 22.1 carries, 1.6 targets and 1.2 receptions per game (including postseason).
In his 23 regular-season games since his career-breakout performance in 2018, Henry has been a fantasy RB1 in 57% of his games (per RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).
Henry has a good matchup against the Texans, who are No. 26 with a -0.1% rush-defense DVOA, per Football Outsiders.
This year, opposing backfields are No. 4 against the Texans with 24.2 fantasy points per game on 136-706-6 rushing and 20-162-0 receiving.
With Henry, there’s always a chance he’ll have a mediocre rushing day with no touchdowns and targets — but there’s also the chance he’ll have 150-plus yards and multiple touchdowns. That’s exactly what we saw last year in his two games against the Texans.
- Week 15 (vs. HOU): 8.6 PPR & STD | 21-86-0 | 0-0-0, one target
- Week 17 (at HOU): 39.1 PPR & STD | 32-211-3 | 0-0-0, zero targets
Over the past two-plus seasons, Henry has averaged 20.3 DraftKings and 18.4 FanDuel points across 19 games as a favorite (per our FantasyLabs Trends Tool).
And with quarterback Ryan Tannehill, the Titans have put up points at home. In his eight starts at Nissan Stadium, the over is 7-1, good for a 72.6% return on investment (ROI, per our Bet Labs database).
As a home favorite in a game that might have a higher score than expected, Henry could benefit from a run-heavy script and multiple goal-line opportunities.
Big Dog will hunt.
Henry is a locked-in top-three RB1 in season-long leagues and a high-floor/high-ceiling play for cash games and guaranteed prize pools alike.
He’s the No. 1 running back in the Bales, CSURAM88, Koerner, Hodge and Freedman Models for DraftKings, where he has position-high marks with nine Pro Trends and a 94% Bargain Rating.
Salaries: $7,300 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel
Ronald Jones II: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5) vs. Green Bay Packers (54 O/U)
After amassing 1,033 scrimmage yards as a 22-year-old second-season pseudo-breakout in 2019, Jones has continued to produce in 2020.
- Week 1 (at NO): 10.2 PPR, 8.2 STD | 17-66-0 | 2-16-0, three targets
- Week 2 (vs. CAR): 10.7 PPR, 8.7 STD | 7-23-1 | 2-4-0, two targets
- Week 3 (at DEN): 9.3 PPR, 7.3 STD | 13-53-0 | 2-20-0, four targets
- Week 4 (vs. LAC): 18.8 PPR, 12.8 STD | 20-111-0 | 6-17-0, nine targets
- Week 5 (at CHI): 15.5 PPR, 12.5 STD | 17-106-0 | 3-19-0, five targets
Jones has just one touchdown this year, and his 3.3 yards per target is atrocious, but how much can you quibble with a guy pacing for almost 1,400 yards and averaging 4.9 yards per carry?
As a runner, Jones is a top-six Football Outsiders producer.
- Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement: 105 (2nd)
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average: 26.1% (3rd)
- Effective Yards: 432 (3rd-t)
- Success Rate: 59% (6th)
Even with the additions of Leonard Fournette and LeSean McCoy via free agency and Ke’Shawn Vaughn via the draft, Jones has maintained his role as the lead back.
Jones has gotten some help, of course. It helps that Vaughn missed most of training camp because he was on the COVID-19 list. It helps that McCoy missed most of Week 4 and all of Week 5 with an ankle injury. And it especially helps that Fournette also missed all of Week 4 and almost all of Week 5 with an ankle injury of his own.
But is it surprising that a 23-year-old third-round rookie has failed to catch on so far? Is it shocking that a 32-year-old veteran on his third team in three years has been unable to make substantial contributions? Is it unbelievable that a big-bodied between-the-tackles grinder yet to play a full 16-game season has suffered an injury at one of the most violent positions in all of professional sports?
Nah, not really.
Regardless, here we are: Over the past two weeks, Jones has been a top-three back with a 79% market share of team rushes and 38% share of team opportunities (carries plus targets).
And there’s no guarantee that McCoy will return in Week 6 or that Fournette will see a significant increase in snaps.
The hold Jones has on the backfield is uncertain, but as long as he gets the work, he should produce. Since last season, Jones has had notable splits based on whether he’s hit the 12-carry threshold (per RotoViz Game Splits App).
I think the odds Jones will have at least 12 rushes in this game are good.
And the matchup is good: Opposing backfields are No. 2 against the Packers with 27.8 fantasy points per game on 78-371-5 rushing and 31-281-2 receiving in four contests.
Unless we get news that the Bucs intend to ramp Fournette back up to the 40% snap share he saw in Weeks 2-3, Jones is a low-end bye-week RB1 in season-long leagues.
In DFS, Jones warrants consideration in cash games and tournaments, especially on FanDuel, where he has the No. 9 median projection at the position but the No. 17 salary.
Jones is the No. 1 running back in the Bales, CSURAM88, Koerner and Raybon Models for FanDuel, where he has a position-high +5.54 Projected Plus/Minus.
He’s also the top option in the Raybon and SportsGeek Models for DraftKings.
Salaries: $6,000 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
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James Robinson: Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) vs. Detroit Lions, 54.5 O/U
As I noted in last week’s running back breakdown, Robinson has blown me away.
A two-time Walter Payton Award finalist for FCS player of the year, the undrafted rookie out of Illinois State has been one of the league’s most consistent backs (per our FantasyLabs Trends Tool).
- Week 1 (vs. IND): 10.0 PPR, 9.0 STD | 16-62-0 | 1-28-0, one target
- Week 2 (at TEN): 21.0 PPR, 18.0 STD | 16-102-1 | 3-18-0, four targets
- Week 3 (vs. MIA): 30.9 PPR, 24.9 STD | 11-46-2 | 6-83-0, six targets
- Week 4 (at CIN): 14.7 PPR, 10.7 STD | 17-75-0 | 4-32-0, four targets
- Week 5 (at HOU): 10.0 PPR, 5.0 STD | 13-48-0 | 5-22-0, seven targets
That Robinson is on a bad 1-4 team and coming off a Week 5 dud and still averaging 103.2 scrimmage yards per game is incredibly impressive, especially considering that he entered training camp No. 5 on the depth chart behind starter Leonard Fournette, change-of-pace receiving back Chris Thompson and veteran grinders Ryquell Armstead and Devine Ozigbo.
What catches my eye most about Robinson is that he has been a strong receiver out of the backfield, ranking No. 4 among all backs with 8.3 yards per target, No. 6 with 2.20 yards per route and No. 8 with 35.0 air yards and yards after the catch (AirYAC) per game.
AirYAC (air yards plus yards after the catch) is a leading and simple-to-understand indicator of fantasy output. You can find it at RotoViz.
That Robinson ranks so highly in these metrics suggests what we’ve seen out of him so far is not a fluke.
Although small-school prospects tend not to be elite athletes, Robinson defies that stereotype. His speed (4.64-second 40-yard dash) at the combine didn’t impress, but he was fast enough for his size (5-foot-9, 219 pounds), and he displayed near-elite explosiveness (40-inch vertical and 125-inch broad jumps), agility (7.03-second three-cone, 4.19-second short shuttle) and strength (24 bench-press reps).
With his total performance, Robinson exhibited 89th-percentile 127.5 SPARQ athleticism (per Player Profiler), and that’s more than sufficient to be a productive NFL back.
Entering the year, I expected nothing from Robinson. I knew he produced in college.
- 2019 (Senior, 15 games): 364-1,899-18 rushing | 16-80-0 receiving
- 2018 (Junior, 11 games): 205-1,290-12 rushing | 21-164-1 receiving
- 2017 (Sophomore, 11 games): 165-933-12 rushing | 9-75-0 receiving
I knew that in his final season he literally carried his team to the FCS championship game.
But a lot of small-school runners put up big numbers in the FCS and then do nothing in the NFL. I expected Robinson to perform similarly as a professional. I was magnificently wrong.
He has seized full control of the Jags’ backfield.
In the games they’ve played, only Henry, Christian McCaffrey, Joe Mixon, Josh Jacobs and Ezekiel Elliott have a higher market share of team carries than Robinson does.
With his pass-catching ability, Robinson looks like a game script-independent producer, and he has a strong matchup against the Lions, who are No. 31 with a 14.2% rush-defense DVOA.
Opposing backfields are No. 1 with 28.6 fantasy points per game against the Lions on 106-590-5 rushing and 16-173-1 receiving in four contests. And Robinson is almost the entirety of his backfield.
Given that Jaguars-Lions has the slate’s highest over/under, Robinson could go get multiple goal-line opportunities this weekend.
A low-end bye-week RB1 in season-long leagues, Robinson is a cash-game candidate in DFS, especially on FanDuel, where he’s No. 6 with his median and ceiling projections but priced No. 12 at the position.
Robinson is the No. 1 back in the SportsGeek, Hodge and Freedman Models for FanDuel, where he has position-high marks with 12 Pro Trends and a 99% Bargain Rating.
Salaries: $6,800 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel
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Running Backs With Week-Winning Upside
In this section, I highlight some running backs I think will outperform expectations and whom I especially like as upside season-long and DFS tournament plays.
Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers (-2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (54 O/U): The Buccaneers are No. 3 with a -39.6% rush-defense DVOA and No. 6 with a -27.1% pass-defense DVOA against running backs, but they are without defensive tackle Vita Vea (leg, IR), and Jones is the No. 3 fantasy back with 25.5 PPR and 21.7 standard points per game. With quarterback Aaron Rodgers, the Packers are an A-graded 113-78-5 ATS (15.7% ROI) …
… and they are 8-2-1 ATS (50.2% ROI) with Rodgers off the bye. You can bet on this game at FanDuel. Salaries: $7,600 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons (54.5 O/U): The Founding Father is young, hungry and scrappy, and he’s not throwing away his shot. I’m betting on the Vikings in this solar eclipse spot as non-divisional home favorites.
Vikings HC Mike Zimmer: Against the Spread
– Home: 30-16-1 ATS
– Favorite: 36-20-1 ATS
– Outside Division: 45-18-1Week 6, stars align: Vikings, non-divisional home favorites.
In this solar eclipse spot, Zimmer is 19-4-1 ATS.
Via @Bet_Labs https://t.co/aa7TLzPF0x
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) October 12, 2020
Salaries: $7,200 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel
Mike Davis, Carolina Panthers (-2.5) vs. Chicago Bears (45 O/U): Over the past three weeks, Davis has played the Christian McCaffrey role to perfection with 45-219-1 rushing and 22-132-2 receiving on 25 targets. In a #RevengeGame, Davis has position-high median, ceiling and floor projections in our Models. Salaries: $7,000 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel
Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns (+3.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (51 O/U): The Steelers are No. 1 with a -45.0% rush-defense DVOA, but Hunt was 20-72-0 rushing and 3-21-1 receiving in a similarly tough matchup last week without teammate Nick Chubb (knee, IR). In Hunt’s 28 career regular-season games with 10-plus carries, he has produced …
… and I bet he hits that threshold in Week 6. Salaries: $6,900 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts (-8) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (47 O/U): “If it be now, ’tis not to come; if it be not to come, it will be now; if it be not now, yet it will come. The readiness is all.” Yep. Salaries: $6,400 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals (+8) at Indianapolis Colts (47 O/U): Over the past two weeks, Mixon has an unrivaled 50% market share of his team’s opportunities. The Colts allowed an average of 17.7 PPR and 15.2 standard points per game to Mixon-similar backs Dalvin Cook and Kareem Hunt in Weeks 2 and 4. Salaries: $6,200 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel
David Montgomery, Chicago Bears (+2.5) at Carolina Panthers (45 O/U): In his past two games without change-of-pace back Tarik Cohen (knee, IR), Montgomery has a position-high 83% snap rate and top-eight marks with a 67% rush share and 17% target share. The Panthers are No. 32 with a 30.1 run-defense grade (per Pro Football Focus). Salaries: $5,800 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel
Myles Gaskin, Miami Dolphins (-9.5) vs. New York Jets (48 O/U): The most well-rounded back on the team, Gaskin leads the backfield with 15.5 expected fantasy points per game, 64-249-1 rushing and 23-147-0 receiving. Opposing backfields are No. 5 against the 0-5 Jets with 24.9 fantasy points per game on 121-553-7 rushing and 30-212-1 receiving. Salaries: $5,400 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
Damien Harris, New England Patriots (-9.5) vs. Denver Broncos (46 O/U): Before the COVID-induced bye, Harris was 17-100-0 rushing in the Sony Michel role in Week 3. The Broncos are No. 1 with a 79.5 PFF run-defense grade, but the Pats are still likely to have a ground-based offense as big home favorites. Salaries: $5,000 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
Devonta Freeman, New York Giants (-2.5) vs. Washington Football Team (43 O/U): Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you the most boring home favorite running back in NFL history. Freeman is 28-93-1 rushing and 6-62-0 receiving on seven targets over the past two weeks, and the Footballers are without defensive tackle Matt Ioannidis (bicep, IR). Salaries: $4,900 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
Adrian Peterson, Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (54.5 O/U): The list of running backs to go off on the Jags since the second half of last year is incredibly long.
- Carlos Hyde (Week 9): 14.0 PPR, 14.0 STD | 19-160-0
- Duke Johnson (Week 9): 19.1 PPR, 14.1 STD | 7-13-1 | 5-68-0, five targets
- BYE WEEK (Week 10): The Jags somehow made their run defense worse during the bye.
- Marlon Mack (Week 11): 16.9 PPR, 16.9 STD | 14-109-1
- Jonathan Williams (Week 11): 15.7 PPR, 14.7 STD | 13-116-0 | 1-31-0, one target
- Nyheim Hines (Week 11): 12.5 PPR, 9.5 STD | 3-11-1 | 3-24-0, four targets
- Derrick Henry (Week 12): 28.5 PPR, 27.5 STD | 19-159-2 | 1-16-0, one target
- Peyton Barber (Week 13): 18.4 PPR, 18.4 STD | 17-44-2
- Austin Ekeler (Week 14): 31.3 PPR, 27.3 STD | 8-101-0 | 4-112-1, five targets
- Melvin Gordon III (Week 14): 19.4 PPR, 14.4 STD | 12-55-1 | 5-29-0, five targets
- Josh Jacobs (Week 15): 12.9 PPR, 10.9 STD | 24-89-0 | 2-20-0, three targets
- Devonta Freeman (Week 16): 33.7 PPR, 24.7 STD | 13-53-1 | 9-74-1, 10 targets
- Brian Hill & Qadree Ollison (Week 16): 12.9 PPR, 12.9 STD | 8-69-1
- Marlon Mack (Week 17): 19.7 PPR, 19.7 STD | 15-77-2 | 0-0-0, one target
- Nyheim Hines (Week 17): 8.6 PPR, 5.6 STD | 7-34-0 | 3-22-0, five targets
- Nyheim Hines (Week 1): 27.3 PPR, 19.3 STD | 7-28-1 | 8-45-1, eight targets
- Jonathan Taylor (Week 1): 14.9 PPR, 8.9 STD | 9-22-0 | 6-67-0 six targets
- Marlon Mack (Week 1, injured): 8.6 PPR, 5.6 STD | 4-26-0 | 3-30-0, three targets
- Derrick Henry (Week 2): 8.4 PPR, 8.4 STD | 25-84-0 | 0-0-0, two targets
- Myles Gaskin & Jordan Howard (Week 3): 20.6 PPR, 15.6 STD | 25-67-1 | 5-29-0, five targets
- Joe Mixon (Week 4): 42.1 PPR, 36.1 STD | 25-151-2 | 6-30-1, six targets
- David Johnson (Week 5): 12.3 PPR, 10.3 STD | 17-96-0 | 2-7-0, four targets
I wasn’t exaggerating. The 36-year-old future Hall-of-Famer should be rested and spry off the Week 4 bye. Salaries: $4,700 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel.
D’Andre Swift, Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (54.5 O/U): See Peterson, Adrian. I mean, did you see the length of that list? Salaries: $4,500 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel.
Phillip Lindsay, Denver Broncos (+9.5) at New England Patriots (46 O/U): Starter Melvin Gordon was cited for driving under the influence and speeding on Tuesday night, and head coach Vic Fangio is undecided on whether or not he will play this week. Lindsay (toe) is slated to return from injury and could see extra work if Gordon is out. Salaries: $4,300 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel.
Nyheim Hines, Indianapolis Colts (-8) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (47 O/U): Most people don’t know what they want to be when they grow up. But I did. Even as a small child in the 1980s, I always dreamed I’d one day be a fantasy sports writer who cranked out inconsequential blurbs about pint-sized change-of-pace receiving backs. Salaries: $4,000 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
Frank Gore, New York Jets (+9.5) at Miami Dolphins (48 O/U): The Jets released the disgruntled Le’Veon Bell on Tuesday, so Gore might get starter-quantity opportunities at a discount. The Dolphins are No. 32 with a 16.3% rush-defense DVOA. Salaries: $4,000 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
La’Mical Perine, New York Jets (+9.5) at Miami Dolphins (48 O/U): As if it’s not bad enough to read a Frank Gore blurb. Salaries: $4,000 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel
Gus Edwards, Baltimore Ravens (-7.5) at Philadelphia Eagles (47.5 O/U): My favorite deep dynasty stash, Gus Bus could get extended run as a big favorite, and he has been over 5.0 yards per carry each year of his career on significant volume. Since entering the league, Edwards has been the NFL’s most no-nonsense North/South runner each season based on his Efficiency metric (per Next Gen Stats).
Gus Edwards – league-wide rank among RBs in Efficiency each year of his career via @NextGenStats:
– 2020: 2.76 (1st)
– 2019: 2.93 (1st)
– 2018: 2.78 (1st)Are we sure Gus Bus isn’t the best RB in Baltimore?
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) October 14, 2020
Salaries: $4,000 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel
Matthew Freedman is 648-519-26 (55.5%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.
The Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs, Freedman is commonly called the Oracle & the Labyrinthian.
Pictured above: Derrick Henry and Mike Vrabel.
Photo credit: Brett Carlsen/Getty Images.
