In every MLB Plays of the Day post, several FantasyLabs writers use our Trends and Player Models tools to highlight each one player to roster heavily in cash games and/or tournaments for the day’s main slate.
Here are today’s plays of the day.
The Play of the Daigle
Who is John Daigle? In the 1980s, Val Kilmer was his wingman.
John Daigle: Felix Hernandez, SEA, SP
Hernandez had it taken to him in his last outing, but that actually bodes well if you are rostering him tonight. Not only will he likely be rostered in a lower percentage of lineups, but his last start against Oakland really isn’t all that big of deal. Felix has historically “produced” a Plus/Minus of -5.08 when opposing the A’s on the road. That’s just what he does in Oakland.
And that game should have no bearing on what he does in this game. Basically, nothing should stop him from crushing the Rays, who have a slate-high strikeout rate (26.6 percent) against right-handed pitching. Cash. Tournaments. Whatever. King Felix is just that in every format, even with the bevy of aces available tonight.
Check out the rest of John’s recommendations in today’s Slate Breakdown. [Editor’s Note: For an alternative “haute take” on Hernandez, see Jon Cabezas’ Trend of the Day.]
The Remaining Plays of the Day
Here are all the plays recommended by people whose surnames don’t rhyme with “bagel.”
Tyler Buecher: Marcell Ozuna, MIA, OF
If you’re looking for potentially low-rostered players capable of big performances, Ozuna should be near the top of your list of outfielders tonight. Possessing negative differentials against righties, Ozuna will likely be faded by the masses and consequently rostered in a low percentage of tournament lineups in tonight’s 13-game slate. And yet with five homeruns in his past 15 games, Ozuna has been agnostic to handedness with his power swings, as three of them came against righties — and one of them came against tonight’s pitcher, Wily Peralta.
Peralta is a bottom-three pitcher in terms of both WHIP and strikeouts per nine innings, and (per our advanced data) he has a slate-low 41 percent called-strike percentage. Ozuna and the rest of the Marlins should have little difficulty reaching their implied Vegas total of 4.6 runs tonight. Ozuna has recently raised his hard-hit percentage up to 50 percent with some incredible performances, as his 15-day batted-ball distance exceeds his 12-month average by 41 feet. Ozuna and his teammate Giancarlo Stanton lead all outfielders with nine Pro Trends and collectively make for a good stack tonight.
Kelly McCann: Justin Bour, MIA, 1B
Wily Peralta is an equal opportunity pitcher. He gets bombed by hitters from both sides of the plate, but he has been especially generous to southpaws over the course of his career. Peralta’s lifetime achievements include allowing a .355 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) and 1.24 homeruns per nine innings to left handers.
Justin Bour happens to be a lefty who has the pleasure of facing Peralta in Miami this evening. Bour sports a .344 wOBA and .233 Isolated Power (ISO) when facing right-handed pitching. He’s putting a charge in the ball lately, as his 97 MPH exit velocity and 252-foot batted-ball distance rank first and second among first basemen over the last 15 days. He also ranks first and third at his position with 10 Pro Trends and 22 percent Upside.
With the DFS universe foaming at the mouth to get a piece of Paul Goldschmidt at Coors Field, Bour could be a criminally under-rostered tournament option at first base tonight. The Marlins have the slate’s fifth-highest projected total with 4.6 runs, so Bour definitely has the potential you want.
Brandon Hopper: Corey Kluber, CLE, SP
Corey Kluber has been erratic this season, but one thing about him has been consistent: On the road, he has been strong. At Tampa Bay, Detroit, and Philadelphia, Kluber has gone at least seven innings and averaged a strikeout per inning.
In today’s slate, he plays at Houston against a sub-par offense in a park that is especially friendly to neither hitters nor pitchers. The Astros are a good fastball-hitting team, but they struggle against cutters and curveballs (Kluber’s two best pitches), according to FanGraphs.com.
Kluber enters the slate with positive advanced stats. His opponents’ batted-ball distance is down 25 feet in the past 15 days — the second-best mark in that category among pitchers in the slate.
Additionally, Kluber strikes out more than a batter per inning and the Astros have the fifth-highest strikeout rate on the slate vs. RHP.
Most of the DFS players willing to spend up will likely target Stephen Strasburg and Jon Lester, so Kluber could be rostered on lower percentage of lineups than is normally the case for him. Strasburg and Lester are only $300 more and large favorites in their respective games. Kluber’s $10,700 FanDuel salary presents a 99 percent Bargain Rating.
Bryan Mears: Jon Lester, CHC, SP
Tonight’s slate is really intriguing because it’s 1) a Coors Field slate and 2) full of elite pitching. You’re going to have to make concessions somewhere, and balancing where you do that will determine your success in tonight’s main slate. Notably, there are four elite options all in the $11,000 price range on DraftKings: Strasburg, Hernandez, Jose Fernandez, and Lester.
Lester is the most expensive of the group, which is intriguing in its own right. One of the first things I do when analyzing every slate is look each player relative to his peers. Before even looking at matchups, I consider how players are priced in relation to each other. That monetary positioning I believe really affects lineup percentage.
So let’s consider Lester, who has a very nice matchup: The Padres have the worst ISO against left-handed pitching this season. They also strike out a ton, which means that Lester has a ton of Upside in this matchup. However, Fernandez and even King Felix have strong matchups and they provide savings on a slate in which you really want to get Coors Field players in your lineups. I don’t know how much that will lower Lester’s ownership in tournaments, but he could easily be the lowest-rostered of the $11,000 group, despite having just as much potential as any pitcher tonight.
Check out the rest of Bryan’s recommendations in today’s MLB Daily Fantasy Flex podcast, coming soon.
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The Plays of the Day series is our answer to the question, “Who do you guys like today?” We publish a Plays of the Day article every weekday for MLB and a Plays of the Week every Wednesday for PGA.
