Wednesday features Game 1 of the NBA Finals between the Los Angeles Lakers and Miami Heat starting at 9 p.m. ET.
If you’re unfamiliar with the single-game format, check out my primers on DraftKings or FanDuel before building your lineups.
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Studs
The NBA Finals are headlined by the dominant Lakers’ duo of LeBron James and Anthony Davis. They are the two most expensive players on the slate, and they lead all players in median, ceiling, and floor projection in our NBA Models.
James will making his 11th trip to the NBA Finals, and he’ll be looking for his fourth ring with his third different team. He continues to stuff the stat sheet, as he’s averaged 26.7 points, 10.3 rebounds, 8.9 assists, 1.3 steals, and 1.0 blocks per game during the postseason. He is coming off one of the best games of his storied career in Game 5 vs. the Nuggets, logging 79.0 DraftKings points thanks to 38 points, 16 rebounds, and 10 assists.
The Heat really should have no answer for LeBron in this series. They were one of the worst teams in basketball at defending the rim during the regular season, and they have also been vulnerable in transition during the playoffs. Those are two areas where LeBron can do a lot of damage.
Davis is slightly cheaper than James across the industry, which might make him the better pure value. He leads all players on DraftKings in projected Plus/Minus on today’s slate.
Davis has led the Lakers in scoring during the postseason thanks to a string of cupcake matchups. There really aren’t a lot of bad matchups for Davis, but the Blazers, Rockets, and Nuggets had absolutely no answer for him. He will face a stiffer test in this series from Bam Adebayo, who ranked second at the PF position in terms of ESPN’s Defensive Real Plus/Minus this season.
The best part about the Lakers’ big two is that you can play them together. They have a correlation of +0.23, so they can both find fantasy success in the same matchup. Stacking both players makes a lot of sense considering that the Lakers are 4.5-point favorites in Game 1.
Speaking of Adebayo, he’s coming off a huge series vs. the Celtics in the Eastern Conference finals. He scored at least 38.0 DraftKings points in all six games, and he scored at least 45.0 DraftKings points in four of them.
Unfortunately, Adebayo has one of the worst matchups on paper in this series. He owns and Opponent Plus/Minus of -3.17 on DraftKings vs. Davis and the rest of the Lakers. His salary has become a bit inflated, so he’s definitely a viable fade candidate.
If you are going to play Adebayo, it’s best to do so on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 96%.
Jimmy Butler rounds out the stud group today, and he was pedestrian from a fantasy perspective vs. the Celtics. He scored 38.0 DraftKings points or fewer in four of six matchups, which is not getting the job done at his current salary.
That said, his price tag on DraftKings is pretty reasonable – it comes with a Bargain Rating of 98% — and he’s capable of contributing in every category across the board. He’s also one of the few veterans on the Heat, so he might need to carry a little more weight if the young players are struggling to handle the pressure of the NBA Finals.
Midrange
This area will likely be dominated by the Heat during this series. The Lakers are a very top-heavy team with James and Davis, while the Heat are a little more balanced on the offensive end.
The Lakers only real option in this price range is Rajon Rondo, but his playing time diminished towards the end of the Nuggets’ series. He saw just 21.6 minutes in Game 4 and 12.8 minutes in Game 5, which makes him a risky option in Game 1 vs. the Nuggets.
On the Heat side, Goran Dragic has been the driving force for their offense during the playoffs. He leads the team in both points per game and usage rate, and he scored at least 32.5 DraftKings points in four of six games vs. the Celtics despite some subpar shooting numbers.
Dragic is an elite play today on FanDuel, where his $10,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%.
Tyler Herro has shown absolutely no fear during the postseason, and he made history by scoring 37 points in Game 4 vs. the Celtics. Only Magic Johnson has scored more points in a playoff game before turning 21 years old.
Will he finally start to show his age during the Finals? That remains to be seen, but the Heat should continue to ask Herro to carry a big workload on the offensive end.
Jae Crowder stands out as one of my favorite targets in this price range. He has struggled mightily from behind the arc recently – he’s shot just 7-38 (18.4%) from 3-point range over his past five games – but that hasn’t necessarily tanked his fantasy value. Crowder has still managed to score at least 27.0 DraftKings points in three of those contests.
Expect Crowder to be on the floor plenty during this series to try and slow down LeBron. That gives him big upside at his current price tag if he can rediscover his jump shot.
Values & Punts
These are the players who typically decide these showdown contests. It may not feel comfortable to roster someone who isn’t projected for a ton of minutes, but history suggests it’s the easiest way to find yourself at the top of the leaderboard. These plays typically command lower ownership than the mid-tier guys, so they allow you to differentiate your lineup without sacrificing the high-end stud production.
Let’s break down some of the top options in this range, rapid-fire style:
- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: $4,600 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel – KCP has is projected for 30.4 minutes in our NBA Models, which is a bit of an outlier in this price range. He’s not the most productive player on a per-minute basis but getting on the court is the first step towards fantasy relevance.
- Danny Green: $4,200 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel – Green has loads of big-game experience, which could increase his value in the first game of the NBA Finals. He’s one of the few members of the Lakers who can knock down open shots on the perimeter, which could come in handy if the Heat resort to their zone defense. Green has also historically saved some of his best shooting performances for the finals: He shot 55.1% from 3-point range vs. the Heat in 2013, 45.0% vs. the Heat in 2014, and 36.4% in 2019 vs. the Warriors.
- Andre Iguodala: $3,400 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel – Iggy is another member of the Heat who could see a few additional minutes in this series due to his defensive ability. He’s obviously not the same player that he was in his prime, but Iggy has historically been one of the best defensive players in the league vs. LeBron.
- Alex Caruso: $3,000 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel – Caruso has blossomed into an important role player for the Lakers this season. He’s played at least 22.3 minutes in eight of his past nine games, and he’s one of the best fantasy producers in this price range on a per-minute basis. He’s an excellent target in Game 1, but he will also be one of the highest-owned value options.
- Markieff Morris: $2,600 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel – I like Morris quite a bit at his current salary. He was a bit of an afterthought in the Nuggets series but entered the starting lineup vs. the Rockets in the previous round. Miami is somewhat similar to Houston – lots of 3-point attempts, only one traditional big man – so Morris could see a few additional minutes in this series.
