NFL Week 3 wraps up with a Monday Night Football contest between the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs at 8:15 p.m. ET.
If you’re unfamiliar with the single-game NFL DFS format, it differs a bit on DraftKings and FanDuel. On DraftKings, you have one “captain” spot and five flexes. The captain will score 1.5x fantasy points, but he also costs 1.5x salary. That means if you want to roster Lamar Jackson at captain and take advantage of the scoring boost, you’ll have to pay $19,500 as opposed to $13,000.
FanDuel’s single-game format features one “MVP” spot and four flexes. The MVP also scores 1.5x fantasy points, but he doesn’t cost any additional salary. That takes away a bit of the strategy and makes the goal simple: get your highest-scoring player in the MVP spot.
New NFL DFS Trial Offer: Try our new football subscription for $4.95 and get access to our industry-leading tools and projections.
Studs
This slate is loaded with star power, which is to be expected when the two best teams in football square off in prime time. That said, Jackson stands out as the easy top choice on the slate. He leads all players in median, ceiling, and floor projections in our NFL Models, along with the top projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
He takes the field in an elite spot, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.6 on DraftKings. The Chiefs have not been nearly as good defensively as they have been offensively over the past few seasons, particularly on the ground. Those struggles have carried over to the start of the 2020 season, as they rank just 26th in Football Outsiders’ rush defense DVOA through their first two contests. Jackson’s rushing production has been a down a smidge to start the year, but expect him to run wild in tonight’s matchup.
The Ravens also take the field as home favorites, which is a situation that Jackson has historically thrived in. He’s been a home favorite in 13 previous contests, and he’s responded with an average Plus/Minus of +7.34 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).
The question isn’t whether or not Jackson should be in your lineup, but rather whether or not he should be in the captain spot. He’s expensive at $19,500, but you can balance that out with some punts and values if you choose to go in that direction. It’s definitely a viable strategy if Jackson goes supernova.
Loading up the Chiefs might actually be a contrarian strategy today, which is something we don’t see very often. It’s basically impossible to pair Jackson with a Chiefs’ stack unless you want to go with a pure punt at captain.
Any Chiefs’ stack obviously starts with Patrick Mahomes, who is coming off 30.48 DraftKings points in his Week 2 matchup against the Chargers. Mahomes hasn’t put up the eye-popping stats we’ve become accustomed to through his first two contests — he’s averaged 256.5 yards and 2.5 TDs per game — but he remains the best quarterback in the league.
Unfortunately, he’ll have his hands full tonight with the Ravens. They currently rank third in pass defense DVOA in 2020 after finishing fourth in that category in 2019. Overall, Mahomes owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -5.1 on DraftKings, which is the worst mark on the entire slate.
Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce stand out as the top stacking options with Mahomes. He owns a correlation of +0.57 with Kelce and +0.35 with Hill, and both players are capable of putting up monster fantasy performances.
That said, I would resist the temptation of pairing all three players together. Hill and Kelce have a correlation of -0.35, which makes sense considering their salaries. If one player goes off, it simply doesn’t leave a ton of fantasy production for the other. It’s easy to create a rule utilizing our new and improved multi-lineup builder to limit your exposure to either Hill or Kelce:
Of the two, Kelce has a significantly better matchup. The Ravens enter this contest first in DVOA against No. 1 WRs but just 24th in DVOA against TEs. The split wasn’t as drastic in 2019 — they finished sixth against No. 1 WRs and 10th against TEs — but Kelce still has an edge.
New NFL DFS Trial Offer: Try our new football subscription for $4.95 and get access to our industry-leading tools and projections.
Midrange
Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews are the most expensive pass-catchers for the Ravens, and they own the top two correlations with Jackson. That makes them excellent stacking partners with the stud QB.
Additionally, their correlation with each other (-0.03) isn’t nearly as stark as the correlation between Hill and Kelce, so you could theoretically pair them in the same lineup. Both players are coming off disappointing performances in Week 2, but they simply weren’t needed much in that contest. The arrow is still definitely pointing up on both players’ fantasy stock.
Andrews, in particular, stands out as an appealing buy-low target. He saw a massive spike in snaps and routes run to start the 2020 season after playing on a limited basis in 2019. Andrews was already one of the most efficient players in the league in terms of fantasy points per route run, so any increase in volume could be massive for his fantasy numbers.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is another player coming off a disappointing performance in Week 2. He finished with just 10 carries for 38 yards after logging 25 carries in Week 1. That said, the Chiefs gave just 14 carries to RBs in that contest, so he still saw the majority of touches at the position.
The one positive for CEH was his increased involvement in the passing game. He finished with eight targets, which he turned into six catches for 32 yards. He saw seven touches inside the red zone in Week 1, so he’s seen a lot of high-value opportunities to start the season. The Ravens aren’t a much friendlier matchup on the ground than they are through the air, but this is still an appealing buy-low situation.
Things are much more complicated in the Ravens’ backfield. They are currently employing a three-pronged attack at the RB position, with Mark Ingram (19 carries), Gus Edwards (14 carries), and J.K. Dobbins (nine carries) all factoring into the equation.
Ingram still stands out as the preferred option, particularly around the end zone. He has four carries inside the red zone this season compared to just two for Dobbins and one for Edwards.
[Play NFL DFS? Access Our Industry-Leading Tools & Projections For Just $4.95]
Values & Punts
- Sammy Watkins: $5,000 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel — Watkins is currently listed as questionable, but he’s tentatively expected to play after getting in a full practice on Saturday. He’s the No. 3 option in the Chiefs’ passing attack behind Hill and Kelce, which obviously makes him a valuable asset.
- Mecole Hardman: $4,600 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel — Hardman will probably be over-owned in this contest. The fantasy community is obsessed with this guy despite the fact that his production is nothing special with the team at full strength. That said, he has the speed to take any touch to the house and would see a bump if Watkins is unable to suit up.
- Willie Snead: $4,400 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel — Snead isn’t a particularly exciting option, but he’s played on 64.5% of the Ravens’ snaps this season and did catch a touchdown in Week 1.
- Miles Boykin: $3,400 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel — Boykin actually leads the Ravens’ WRs in snaps this season, and his nine targets are tied with Andrews for the second-highest mark on the team. He stands out as one of the better values on the slate.
- DeMarcus Robinson: $3,000 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel — Robinson has seen six more targets than Hardman this season and has played on a higher percentage of snaps, so I will gladly take the price discount between the two players. He also saw two red-zone targets in Week 1, so he has the potential to score a touchdown.
- Gus Edwards: $1,600 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel — Edwards has been involved this season, but most of his work tends to come in garbage time. He’s a risky option unless you think the Ravens can blow the doors off the Chiefs.
- Nick Boyle: $800 on DraftKings, $5,000 on FanDuel — Boyle plays a lot of snaps for the Ravens, and he’ll be on the field in their heavy goal line formations. That definitely makes him a threat to catch a touchdown at a really cheap price tag.
