Our Blog

  1. Home
  2. Our Blog
  3. Week 3 Fantasy TE Breakdown: Zach Ertz, Lord Tennyson
NFL

Week 3 Fantasy TE Breakdown: Zach Ertz, Lord Tennyson

The Week 3 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Sep. 27, at 1 p.m. ET.

In this piece, I highlight the tight ends who stand out in our large suite of analytical DFS Tools, most specifically our FantasyLabs Models, and I include plenty of actionable analysis relevant to season-long fantasy as well.

New NFL DFS Trial Offer: Try our new football subscription for $4.95 and get access to our industry-leading tools and projections.

Top Tight Ends in the FantasyLabs Models

There are four tight ends atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.

  • Tyler Higbee: $5,900 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel
  • Zach Ertz: $5,100 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel
  • Dallas Goedert: $4,900 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
  • Dan Arnold: $2,800 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel

Odds as of Friday afternoon and via DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus today.

Tyler Higbee: Los Angeles Rams (+2.5) at Buffalo Bills, 47.5 Over/Under

What a difference seven days can make. In Week 1, Higbee was a meh-tacular 3-40-0 receiving on four targets, not one of which was in the red or end zones. He played an 89% snap rate, but his on-field presence was rather insubstantial.

And then in Week 2 he exploded with a position-high 25.9 FanDuel points on 5-54-3 receiving. He had just five targets, but two of them were right at the goal line and a third was in the end zone.

Higbee was unstoppable.

But even with his dominant Week 2 performance, some healthy skepticism is warranted. As I said last week, the question for Higbee isn’t talent or matchup. It’s simply volume — and Higbee hasn’t had it for the first two games of the season.

He’s No. 15 at the position with a 17% market share and No. 17 with nine targets (per RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer). In a league with roughly 32 starting tight ends, those numbers are definitionally mediocre.

Hibgee is basically Texans tight end Jordan Akins with more touchdowns.

  • Tyler Higbee (two games): 8-94-3 receiving on nine targets
  • Jordan Akins (two games): 9-94-1 receiving on nine targets

Tell me, are you irrationally excited about Akins? What happens if Higbee stops scoring touchdowns and turns into the guy who can barely beat out Daniel Fells?

A lot of tight end scoring is driven by the randomness of touchdowns, and that’s just something we have to accept — but the truly great fantasy tight ends are the guys who can produce without touchdowns. Guys like Travis Kelce and George Kittle — and Higbee last year in Weeks 13-17.

In the final five games of the 2019 season, when he saw a dramatic increase in playing time, Higbee exceeded salary-based expectations in every game and was easily the No. 1 fantasy tight end (per our FantasyLabs Trends Tool).

  • Fantasy production: 17.2 FanDuel points | +9.4 Plus/Minus
  • Football production: 43-522-2 receiving on 56 targets

In every game he was no worse than a mid-tier fantasy TE1 (per RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).

And perhaps most impressively, Higbee got his production the old-fashioned way. Instead of scoring a ton of fluky touchdowns, he piled up the yards.

In Weeks 13-17, Higbee was No. 1 at the position with 132 air yards and yards after the catch (AirYAC) per game (per AirYards.com). He was utterly dominant.

This year, he’s No. 19 with 56 AirYAC per game.

Until he sees more volume, he’s impossible to roster in cash games.

But he’s always an option in guaranteed prize pools thanks to his unquestioned upside, and Higbee has an intriguing matchup.

In much the same way that Larry David respects wood, I respect the Bills defense. I’m not at all itching to start players going against them, especially tight ends.

Last year, opposing tight end units were No. 31 against the Bills with 7.3 FanDuel points per game.

But this year might be different. Last week the Bills were without starting linebackers Matt Milano (hamstring) and Tremaine Edmunds (shoulder), and tight end Mike Gesicki went off for 23.0 FanDuel points with 8-130-1 receiving on 11 targets.

Safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde form maybe the position’s best coverage duo, but without Milano and Edmunds defending the middle of the field last week, the Bills were exposed. Milano and Edmunds returned to practice on Wednesday, but both have been limited, and neither is certain to play.

Given that All-Pro cornerback Tre’Davious White is slated to shadow No. 1 wide receiver Robert Woods in a #RevengeGame, quarterback Jared Goff might funnel more targets than usual to Higbee against a defense that suddenly looks vulnerable to tight ends.

With his talent and matchup, Higbee is a low-end TE1 with upside in season-long leagues and a reasonable tournament candidate in DFS.

Higbee is the No. 1 option in the Freedman Model for FanDuel.

Zach Ertz: Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals, 47 O/U

Priced as the No. 7 tight end on DraftKings — on a slate without tight ends Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews (Monday Night Football) and also Jared Cook (Sunday Night Football)! — Ertz is simply too cheap. In our Models, Ertz is No. 2 at the position with his median, ceiling and floor projections.

There’s no reason for Ertz to be priced this low.

Well, maybe there are a few reasons.

The Eagles are bad. They’re 0-2 and No. 27 in the NFL with just 18.0 points per game.

They’re so bad that they’re being booed at home by nonexistent fans.

And Ertz hasn’t been great to start the year.

  • Week 2 (vs. LAR): 9.2 DraftKings points | 5-42-0 receiving on seven targets
  • Week 1 (at WAS): 10.8 DraftKings points | 3-18-1 receiving on seven targets

There’s nothing horrible with either of these performances — but a top-tier tight end can’t string too many games like this together while maintaining his place in the upper echelon.

At the position, Ertz is No. 8 with seven targets and No. 19 with 10.0 DraftKings points per game. Numbers like that don’t inspire confidence, especially when teammate Dallas Goedert is Nos. 3 and 7 with marks of 8.5 and 17.1.

The real problem is that Ertz no longer looks like the clear No. 1 tight end for the Eagles. He’s sharing that role with Goedert.

All the juicy volume that Ertz saw last year and the year before (135 targets in 2019, 156 targets in 2018) — that is now being split with Goedert, and Ertz’s yardage-accumulating potential has predictably suffered.

  • 2020 AirYAC: 63.5 per game (No. 12)
  • 2019 AirYAC: 94.8 per game (No. 2)
  • 2018 AirYAC: 91.3 per game (No. 3)

And what about Goedert’s AirYAC, you might ask?

  • 2020 AirYAC: 91.5 per game (No. 5)
  • 2019 AirYAC: 55.6 per game (No. 14)
  • 2018 AirYAC: 31.1 per game (No. 31)

As a rookie in 2018, Goedert was far from a threat to Ertz’s usage, but from last year to this year, Ertz and Goedert have essentially traded places.

With Goedert’s ascendance, Ertz’s ceiling has been capped. Last year, Ertz had six games with double-digit targets (not including the postseason). The year before that, nine games. How many do you think he’ll have this year? Wherever you set that line, I’ll be inclined to take the under.

Entering 2019, Ertz was No. 40 in the NFL’s Top 100. Entering this season, he was No. 85 … and that was after an 88-916-6 receiving campaign.

I haven’t done an official study of this, but it seems to me that if a guy has a good year and still drops 45 spots in the NFL’s Top 100, that’s a pretty good (albeit 100% anecdotal and unscientific) indicator of declining talent.

Ertz is about to turn 31 years old, his early-season production has failed to whelm and the only team he has ever played for is balking at the idea of extending his contract.

Big picture: Ertz is probably on the decline.

But for Week 3, Ertz might go off. He’s in a good spot, and he’s not yet so old that he can’t take advantage of it. Per Alfred, Lord Tennyson’s “Ulysses” …

Death closes all: But something ere the end,
Some work of noble note, may yet be done,
Not unbecoming men that strove with Gods.

No. 1 wide receiver Alshon Jeffery (foot) and rookie wide receiver Jalen Reagor (thumb) are both expected to be out, and their absence should result in at least the opportunity for Ertz to earn extra targets. Since 2017, he has seen 10.4 targets in games without Jeffery vs. 8.4 in games with him in the regular season (per RotoViz Games Splits App).

On top of that, Ertz as a home favorite is on the money-making side of the notable splits he has had ever since becoming a key contributor in 2014 (per our FantasyLabs Trends Tool).

  • Home (50 games): 15.7 DraftKings points | +4.86 Plus/Minus | 66.0% Consistency Rating
  • Away (46 games): 11.1 DraftKings points | +0.42 Plus/Minus | 45.7% Consistency Rating
  • Favorite (60 games): 14.6 DraftKings points | +3.60 Plus/Minus | 58.3% Consistency Rating
  • Underdog (37 games): 11.7 DraftKings points | +1.19 Plus/Minus | 48.6% Consistency Rating

In 39 games as a home favorite, Ertz has been the league’s most productive tight end with 16.3 DraftKings points, a +5.49 Plus/Minus and 66.7% Consistency Rating.

Last year, the Bengals were No. 28 with a 10.9% pass-defense DVOA against tight ends (per Football Outsiders). In 2019, safeties Vonn Bell and Jessie Bates III respectively allowed 9.6 and 11.9 yards per target in their coverage (per Pro Football Focus).

Ertz should be able to produce with whatever targets he gets, and with Reagor now out alongside Jeffery, perhaps Ertz will finally approach or breach the double-digit target threshold.

In season-long leagues, Ertz is a mid-range TE1 with No. 1 overall upside if he gets some target luck, and in DFS he’s a cash-game and GPP candidate in roster constructions that call for an upper middle-class tight end salary.

The top option in the Bales and Levitan Models for DraftKings, Ertz is strong in will to strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.

Dallas Goedert: Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals, 47 O/U

The Joe Walsh to Zach Ertz’s Don Felder, the third-year Goedert is becoming a star. Even though he played behind Ertz last year, the should-be Dallas Cowboy had a strong 58-607-5 receiving campaign on 87 targets, and then in Week 1 he owned the slate with a dominant 8-101-1 performance on nine targets.

He had an unremarkable Week 2 with 4-30-0 receiving on eight targets, but for the year he’s No. 7 with 26.8 expected receiving fantasy points (per RotoViz Screener).

Despite being his team’s ostensible No. 2 option at the position, Goedert is better than all but a few No. 1 tight ends. Starting in Week 4 last year, Goedert played at least 55% of the snaps in each game: He actually saw more than two-thirds of the snaps in all but two of the final 14 games (including playoffs). With that playing time, he produced.Not surprisingly, his per-game production, target volume and playing time increased as the season progressed.

  • Weeks 4-18 (14 games): 8.9 FanDuel points | 6.5 targets | 77.9% snap rate
  • Weeks 10-18, after bye (eight games): 9.7 FanDuel points | 7.9 targets | 83.1% snap rate
  • Weeks 15-18, final month (four games): 11.7 FanDuel points | 9 targets | 92.8% snap rate

As noted above in the Ertz analysis, the Bengals were weak against tight ends last year, and in Week 1 they allowed a 5-73-0 receiving performance on eight targets to the comparable Hunter Henry.

With wide receivers Alshon Jeffery (foot) and Jalen Reagor (thumb) both out, we might get a “Hotel California” scenario in which both Ertz and Goedert get their guitar solos, and that might make them extremely valuable as a differentiating stacked pairing.

In tournaments, same-team TE/TE lineups are incredibly rare. In the Week 2 Millionaire Maker, Goedert was rostered at 3.97% and Ertz at 2.32% (per our FantasyLabs Ownership Dashboard). Together, they had a 0.03% shared roster rate: They were together in only 85 of 266,176 lineups (per our FantasyLabs Contests Dashboard).

If you’re intrigued by this approach, use our Lineup Builder to stack Ertz and Goedert.

A season-long low-end TE1 with top-three upside, Goedert is the top tight end in the Bales, CSURAM88, Levitan, Koerner, Raybon and SportsGeek Models for FanDuel, where he has position-high marks with a +3.44 Projected Plus/Minus and 10 Pro Trends.

Dan Arnold: Arizona Cardinals (-5.5) vs. Detroit Lions, 55.5 O/U

The thought of writing a blurb on Arnold makes my stomach hurt …

… but I’m a gamer. The grind goes on.

Here are some factors Arnold has in his favor.

First, he’s cheap. Just $300 more than the stone minimum on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you’re going to invest in a tight end who’s not actually good, you should do so with as little salary space as possible.

Second, Arnold will have a nearly nonexistent exposure rate in tournaments — because who would actually want to roster this guy in a GPP?

Third, he should play a lot of snaps. Teammate Maxx Williams (ankle, IR) is out, so Arnold will have little competition at the position for playing time. And for all the talk of the Cardinals’ four-wide receiver set, Arnold has a 63.5% snap rate while No. 4 wide receiver Andy Isabella is at 17.6%. Arnold will be on the field.

Fourth, Arnold has run a route on 67.7% of quarterback Kyler Murray’s drop backs. When he’s on the field, Arnold hasn’t been used as a pass-blocking inline specialist. He’s out there to stretch the defense and try not to drop the ball the 2-4 times each game it’s thrown to him.

Fifth, the Lions are bad in pass defense. Last year they allowed a league-high 503.2 AirYAC per game, and this year they are tied for No. 30 with a 43.0 PFF coverage grade. In Weeks 1-2, they allowed punt-viable performances to two Arnold-level players.

  • Robert Tonyan Jr. (Week 2): 10.5 DraftKings points | 2-25-1 receiving on three targets
  • Jimmy Graham (Week 1): 11.5 DraftKings points | 3-25-1 receiving on seven targets

In 2019, the Lions were No. 24 with an 8.7% pass-defense DVOA against tight ends. They present Arnold with an advantageous matchup.

Sixth, the Cardinals are No. 2 on the slate with their 30.25-point implied Vegas total. Fantasy points will abound.

Seventh, wide receiver Christian Kirk (groin) missed Wednesday and Thursday practices and is uncertain to play this week. If he’s out or limited, Arnold might get a boost in target volume.

The problem, though, is that Dan Arnold is still Dan Arnold. For the year he is 4-47-0 receiving on six targets. Yes, in Week 17 last year he had a 4-76-1 performance on six targets — but his 23-yard touchdown came on a blown coverage.

Now, I’m not above hoping for a blown coverage by the Lions. What are the odds they don’t blow a coverage at some point?

But I don’t want to give the impression that a guy who is 10-149-2 receiving on 16 targets in five games with the Cardinals has a high floor.

He is a justifiable punt play. I can see how he gets to 50 yards and a touchdown. But he could also have yet another scoreless game of 20-ish yards.

A low-end TE2 with touchdown-dependent upside in season-long leagues, Arnold is the No. 1 tight end in the CSURAM88, Koerner, Raybon, SportsGeek and Freedman Models for DraftKings.

Upside Tight Ends for Guaranteed Prize Pools

Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders ($5,700 DK, $6,600 FD): Week 3 salaries were set on Sunday before the Raiders played the next day, so Waller comes with something of a Monday Night Football discount, as he should probably be the slate’s highest-salaried tight end after his 16-target, 12-105-1 receiving performance.

Waller (knee) did not practice on Wednesday and Thursday, so he needs to be monitored. The Patriots were No. 7 with a -10.6% DVOA against tight ends last year, but Waller leads the entire league — not just tight ends — with his 39% target share.

Noah Fant, Denver Broncos ($5,400 DK, $5,800 FD): Last year, Fant was a dead-on statistical ringer for rookie-season George Kittle with his 8.5 yards per target …

… and in Weeks 1-2 he impersonated his former Iowa teammate to perfection with 5-81-1 and 4-57-1 receiving performances. Fant has been aggressively priced up over the past two weeks, but he should continue to function as the team’s top pass-catching option without No. 1 wide receiver Courtland Sutton (knee, IR). He has position-high marks with his 99% Leverage Score on DraftKings and 99% Bargain Rating on FanDuel.

T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions ($5,300 DK, $5,400 FD): An obscure fact that almost nobody knows, but Hockenson was 6-131-1 receiving against the Cardinals last year in his NFL debut. It went totally under the radar when it happened.

Last year the Cardinals were No. 32 with a 28.2% pass-defense DVOA against tight ends.

Jonnu Smith, Tennessee Titans ($5,200 DK, $5,600 FD): A top-three fantasy tight end, Smith balled out in Week 2 with No. 1 wide receiver A.J. Brown (knee) out of the lineup.

An after-the-catch accumulator, Smith has an elite 9.5 yards per target since 2018 and is No. 2 at the position with 2.79 yards per route (per PFF). With an 8-120-3 receiving stat line on 12 targets (four in the red zone, two in the end zone), Smith should continue to dominate without Brown, who looks unlikely to play after missing practice on Wednesday and Thursday.

Evan Engram, New York Giants ($5,000 DK, $5,900 FD): I feel as if I should write a blurb on Egnram … so this is that blurb. He has a tough matchup with strong safety Jaquiski Tartt — the 49ers were No. 2 last year with a -33.4% pass-defense DVOA against tight ends — but Engram should see more targets with running back Saquon Barkley (knee, IR) and wide receiver Sterling Shepard (toe, IR) both out.

Hunter Henry, Los Angeles Chargers ($4,800 DK, $6,000 FD): With both quarterbacks Tyrod Taylor and Justin Herbert, Henry has consistently produced this year, ranking No. 2 at the position with 108 AirYAC per game and No. 3 with 2.64 yards per route. Since last year, Henry is the No. 8 fantasy tight end with 12.9 points at DraftKings, where he has a position-high nine Pro Trends.

Hayden Hurst, Atlanta Falcons ($4,600 DK, $5,700 FD): In his first two games with the Falcons, Hurst has flashed his Austin Hooper-replacement ability with 8-110-1 receiving on 13 targets. He’s No. 3 at the position with 78 routes run and in line to see more action if No. 1 wide receiver Julio Jones (hamstring) misses times.

Dalton Schultz, Dallas Cowboys ($4,400 DK, $5,900 FD): No. 5 at the position with 14.1 expected receiving fantasy points on the season, Schultz introduced himself to the world in Week 2 with 9-88-1 receiving on 10 targets. Safeties Jamal Adams and Quandre Diggs present a tough matchup, but the Seahawks-Cowboys game has a slate-high 56.5-point over/under, so Schultz could once again see inflated volume in a high-scoring back-and-forth heavyweight punch-out.

Jordan Reed, San Francisco 49ers ($4,000 DK, $5,300 FD): Starter George Kittle (knee) missed Week 2, and in his absence, backup and onetime top-three fantasy tight end Jordan Reed was 7-50-2 receiving on eight targets. Reed is No. 5 at the position with 2.58 yards per route, and he could have another big game with Kittle expected to sit in Week 3.

Mo Alie-Cox, Indianapolis Colts ($3,800 DK, $5,000 FD): In his first NFL game with a snap rate of at least 60%, Alie-Cox was 5-111-0 receiving on six targets in relief of the injured Jack Doyle (ankle).

Doyle has returned to practice and might play, but MAC is No. 1 at the position with 3.85 yards per route, and he has a great matchup against a Jets defense susceptible to tight ends without strong safety Jamal Adams (trade) and linebackers C.J. Mosley (Covid opt-out) and Blake Cashman (groin, IR).

Logan Thomas, Washington Football Team ($3,600 DK, $4,700 FD): The quarterback-turned-tight end hasn’t blown anyone away with his 8-63-1 stat line, but he’s No. 2 at the position with a 27% target share. Opposing tight end units have amassed top-two fantasy production with 25.4 DraftKings and 20.9 FanDuel points per game against the Browns, who might be without linebacker Mack Wilson (knee) and are definitely without All-American rookie Grant Delpit (Achilles, IR).

Chris Herndon, New York Jets ($3,400 DK, $5,000 FD): The Jets are without wide receivers Jamison Crowder (hamstring), Breshad Perriman (ankle) and Denzel Mims (hamstrings, plural; IR), so Herndon in theory should see an increased receiving workload — but that’s also what I thought last week. Cue Fleetwood Mac: “Been down one time, been down two time …”

FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns

For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network. For updates, see our FantasyLabs News Feed.



Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Rosemount, Minnesota, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

DRAFT Best Ball: The Top 100 NFL Players (July) Will Johnny Manziel Play in the NFL in 2018? 10 NFL Players Most Likely to Be Preseason Fantasy Superstars 2019 NFL Team Needs: Browns QB Baker Mayfield Needs a Left Tackle

The Week 3 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Sep. 27, at 1 p.m. ET.

In this piece, I highlight the tight ends who stand out in our large suite of analytical DFS Tools, most specifically our FantasyLabs Models, and I include plenty of actionable analysis relevant to season-long fantasy as well.

New NFL DFS Trial Offer: Try our new football subscription for $4.95 and get access to our industry-leading tools and projections.

Top Tight Ends in the FantasyLabs Models

There are four tight ends atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.

  • Tyler Higbee: $5,900 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel
  • Zach Ertz: $5,100 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel
  • Dallas Goedert: $4,900 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
  • Dan Arnold: $2,800 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel

Odds as of Friday afternoon and via DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus today.

Tyler Higbee: Los Angeles Rams (+2.5) at Buffalo Bills, 47.5 Over/Under

What a difference seven days can make. In Week 1, Higbee was a meh-tacular 3-40-0 receiving on four targets, not one of which was in the red or end zones. He played an 89% snap rate, but his on-field presence was rather insubstantial.

And then in Week 2 he exploded with a position-high 25.9 FanDuel points on 5-54-3 receiving. He had just five targets, but two of them were right at the goal line and a third was in the end zone.

Higbee was unstoppable.

But even with his dominant Week 2 performance, some healthy skepticism is warranted. As I said last week, the question for Higbee isn’t talent or matchup. It’s simply volume — and Higbee hasn’t had it for the first two games of the season.

He’s No. 15 at the position with a 17% market share and No. 17 with nine targets (per RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer). In a league with roughly 32 starting tight ends, those numbers are definitionally mediocre.

Hibgee is basically Texans tight end Jordan Akins with more touchdowns.

  • Tyler Higbee (two games): 8-94-3 receiving on nine targets
  • Jordan Akins (two games): 9-94-1 receiving on nine targets

Tell me, are you irrationally excited about Akins? What happens if Higbee stops scoring touchdowns and turns into the guy who can barely beat out Daniel Fells?

A lot of tight end scoring is driven by the randomness of touchdowns, and that’s just something we have to accept — but the truly great fantasy tight ends are the guys who can produce without touchdowns. Guys like Travis Kelce and George Kittle — and Higbee last year in Weeks 13-17.

In the final five games of the 2019 season, when he saw a dramatic increase in playing time, Higbee exceeded salary-based expectations in every game and was easily the No. 1 fantasy tight end (per our FantasyLabs Trends Tool).

  • Fantasy production: 17.2 FanDuel points | +9.4 Plus/Minus
  • Football production: 43-522-2 receiving on 56 targets

In every game he was no worse than a mid-tier fantasy TE1 (per RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).

And perhaps most impressively, Higbee got his production the old-fashioned way. Instead of scoring a ton of fluky touchdowns, he piled up the yards.

In Weeks 13-17, Higbee was No. 1 at the position with 132 air yards and yards after the catch (AirYAC) per game (per AirYards.com). He was utterly dominant.

This year, he’s No. 19 with 56 AirYAC per game.

Until he sees more volume, he’s impossible to roster in cash games.

But he’s always an option in guaranteed prize pools thanks to his unquestioned upside, and Higbee has an intriguing matchup.

In much the same way that Larry David respects wood, I respect the Bills defense. I’m not at all itching to start players going against them, especially tight ends.

Last year, opposing tight end units were No. 31 against the Bills with 7.3 FanDuel points per game.

But this year might be different. Last week the Bills were without starting linebackers Matt Milano (hamstring) and Tremaine Edmunds (shoulder), and tight end Mike Gesicki went off for 23.0 FanDuel points with 8-130-1 receiving on 11 targets.

Safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde form maybe the position’s best coverage duo, but without Milano and Edmunds defending the middle of the field last week, the Bills were exposed. Milano and Edmunds returned to practice on Wednesday, but both have been limited, and neither is certain to play.

Given that All-Pro cornerback Tre’Davious White is slated to shadow No. 1 wide receiver Robert Woods in a #RevengeGame, quarterback Jared Goff might funnel more targets than usual to Higbee against a defense that suddenly looks vulnerable to tight ends.

With his talent and matchup, Higbee is a low-end TE1 with upside in season-long leagues and a reasonable tournament candidate in DFS.

Higbee is the No. 1 option in the Freedman Model for FanDuel.

Zach Ertz: Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals, 47 O/U

Priced as the No. 7 tight end on DraftKings — on a slate without tight ends Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews (Monday Night Football) and also Jared Cook (Sunday Night Football)! — Ertz is simply too cheap. In our Models, Ertz is No. 2 at the position with his median, ceiling and floor projections.

There’s no reason for Ertz to be priced this low.

Well, maybe there are a few reasons.

The Eagles are bad. They’re 0-2 and No. 27 in the NFL with just 18.0 points per game.

They’re so bad that they’re being booed at home by nonexistent fans.

And Ertz hasn’t been great to start the year.

  • Week 2 (vs. LAR): 9.2 DraftKings points | 5-42-0 receiving on seven targets
  • Week 1 (at WAS): 10.8 DraftKings points | 3-18-1 receiving on seven targets

There’s nothing horrible with either of these performances — but a top-tier tight end can’t string too many games like this together while maintaining his place in the upper echelon.

At the position, Ertz is No. 8 with seven targets and No. 19 with 10.0 DraftKings points per game. Numbers like that don’t inspire confidence, especially when teammate Dallas Goedert is Nos. 3 and 7 with marks of 8.5 and 17.1.

The real problem is that Ertz no longer looks like the clear No. 1 tight end for the Eagles. He’s sharing that role with Goedert.

All the juicy volume that Ertz saw last year and the year before (135 targets in 2019, 156 targets in 2018) — that is now being split with Goedert, and Ertz’s yardage-accumulating potential has predictably suffered.

  • 2020 AirYAC: 63.5 per game (No. 12)
  • 2019 AirYAC: 94.8 per game (No. 2)
  • 2018 AirYAC: 91.3 per game (No. 3)

And what about Goedert’s AirYAC, you might ask?

  • 2020 AirYAC: 91.5 per game (No. 5)
  • 2019 AirYAC: 55.6 per game (No. 14)
  • 2018 AirYAC: 31.1 per game (No. 31)

As a rookie in 2018, Goedert was far from a threat to Ertz’s usage, but from last year to this year, Ertz and Goedert have essentially traded places.

With Goedert’s ascendance, Ertz’s ceiling has been capped. Last year, Ertz had six games with double-digit targets (not including the postseason). The year before that, nine games. How many do you think he’ll have this year? Wherever you set that line, I’ll be inclined to take the under.

Entering 2019, Ertz was No. 40 in the NFL’s Top 100. Entering this season, he was No. 85 … and that was after an 88-916-6 receiving campaign.

I haven’t done an official study of this, but it seems to me that if a guy has a good year and still drops 45 spots in the NFL’s Top 100, that’s a pretty good (albeit 100% anecdotal and unscientific) indicator of declining talent.

Ertz is about to turn 31 years old, his early-season production has failed to whelm and the only team he has ever played for is balking at the idea of extending his contract.

Big picture: Ertz is probably on the decline.

But for Week 3, Ertz might go off. He’s in a good spot, and he’s not yet so old that he can’t take advantage of it. Per Alfred, Lord Tennyson’s “Ulysses” …

Death closes all: But something ere the end,
Some work of noble note, may yet be done,
Not unbecoming men that strove with Gods.

No. 1 wide receiver Alshon Jeffery (foot) and rookie wide receiver Jalen Reagor (thumb) are both expected to be out, and their absence should result in at least the opportunity for Ertz to earn extra targets. Since 2017, he has seen 10.4 targets in games without Jeffery vs. 8.4 in games with him in the regular season (per RotoViz Games Splits App).

On top of that, Ertz as a home favorite is on the money-making side of the notable splits he has had ever since becoming a key contributor in 2014 (per our FantasyLabs Trends Tool).

  • Home (50 games): 15.7 DraftKings points | +4.86 Plus/Minus | 66.0% Consistency Rating
  • Away (46 games): 11.1 DraftKings points | +0.42 Plus/Minus | 45.7% Consistency Rating
  • Favorite (60 games): 14.6 DraftKings points | +3.60 Plus/Minus | 58.3% Consistency Rating
  • Underdog (37 games): 11.7 DraftKings points | +1.19 Plus/Minus | 48.6% Consistency Rating

In 39 games as a home favorite, Ertz has been the league’s most productive tight end with 16.3 DraftKings points, a +5.49 Plus/Minus and 66.7% Consistency Rating.

Last year, the Bengals were No. 28 with a 10.9% pass-defense DVOA against tight ends (per Football Outsiders). In 2019, safeties Vonn Bell and Jessie Bates III respectively allowed 9.6 and 11.9 yards per target in their coverage (per Pro Football Focus).

Ertz should be able to produce with whatever targets he gets, and with Reagor now out alongside Jeffery, perhaps Ertz will finally approach or breach the double-digit target threshold.

In season-long leagues, Ertz is a mid-range TE1 with No. 1 overall upside if he gets some target luck, and in DFS he’s a cash-game and GPP candidate in roster constructions that call for an upper middle-class tight end salary.

The top option in the Bales and Levitan Models for DraftKings, Ertz is strong in will to strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.

Dallas Goedert: Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals, 47 O/U

The Joe Walsh to Zach Ertz’s Don Felder, the third-year Goedert is becoming a star. Even though he played behind Ertz last year, the should-be Dallas Cowboy had a strong 58-607-5 receiving campaign on 87 targets, and then in Week 1 he owned the slate with a dominant 8-101-1 performance on nine targets.

He had an unremarkable Week 2 with 4-30-0 receiving on eight targets, but for the year he’s No. 7 with 26.8 expected receiving fantasy points (per RotoViz Screener).

Despite being his team’s ostensible No. 2 option at the position, Goedert is better than all but a few No. 1 tight ends. Starting in Week 4 last year, Goedert played at least 55% of the snaps in each game: He actually saw more than two-thirds of the snaps in all but two of the final 14 games (including playoffs). With that playing time, he produced.Not surprisingly, his per-game production, target volume and playing time increased as the season progressed.

  • Weeks 4-18 (14 games): 8.9 FanDuel points | 6.5 targets | 77.9% snap rate
  • Weeks 10-18, after bye (eight games): 9.7 FanDuel points | 7.9 targets | 83.1% snap rate
  • Weeks 15-18, final month (four games): 11.7 FanDuel points | 9 targets | 92.8% snap rate

As noted above in the Ertz analysis, the Bengals were weak against tight ends last year, and in Week 1 they allowed a 5-73-0 receiving performance on eight targets to the comparable Hunter Henry.

With wide receivers Alshon Jeffery (foot) and Jalen Reagor (thumb) both out, we might get a “Hotel California” scenario in which both Ertz and Goedert get their guitar solos, and that might make them extremely valuable as a differentiating stacked pairing.

In tournaments, same-team TE/TE lineups are incredibly rare. In the Week 2 Millionaire Maker, Goedert was rostered at 3.97% and Ertz at 2.32% (per our FantasyLabs Ownership Dashboard). Together, they had a 0.03% shared roster rate: They were together in only 85 of 266,176 lineups (per our FantasyLabs Contests Dashboard).

If you’re intrigued by this approach, use our Lineup Builder to stack Ertz and Goedert.

A season-long low-end TE1 with top-three upside, Goedert is the top tight end in the Bales, CSURAM88, Levitan, Koerner, Raybon and SportsGeek Models for FanDuel, where he has position-high marks with a +3.44 Projected Plus/Minus and 10 Pro Trends.

Dan Arnold: Arizona Cardinals (-5.5) vs. Detroit Lions, 55.5 O/U

The thought of writing a blurb on Arnold makes my stomach hurt …

… but I’m a gamer. The grind goes on.

Here are some factors Arnold has in his favor.

First, he’s cheap. Just $300 more than the stone minimum on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you’re going to invest in a tight end who’s not actually good, you should do so with as little salary space as possible.

Second, Arnold will have a nearly nonexistent exposure rate in tournaments — because who would actually want to roster this guy in a GPP?

Third, he should play a lot of snaps. Teammate Maxx Williams (ankle, IR) is out, so Arnold will have little competition at the position for playing time. And for all the talk of the Cardinals’ four-wide receiver set, Arnold has a 63.5% snap rate while No. 4 wide receiver Andy Isabella is at 17.6%. Arnold will be on the field.

Fourth, Arnold has run a route on 67.7% of quarterback Kyler Murray’s drop backs. When he’s on the field, Arnold hasn’t been used as a pass-blocking inline specialist. He’s out there to stretch the defense and try not to drop the ball the 2-4 times each game it’s thrown to him.

Fifth, the Lions are bad in pass defense. Last year they allowed a league-high 503.2 AirYAC per game, and this year they are tied for No. 30 with a 43.0 PFF coverage grade. In Weeks 1-2, they allowed punt-viable performances to two Arnold-level players.

  • Robert Tonyan Jr. (Week 2): 10.5 DraftKings points | 2-25-1 receiving on three targets
  • Jimmy Graham (Week 1): 11.5 DraftKings points | 3-25-1 receiving on seven targets

In 2019, the Lions were No. 24 with an 8.7% pass-defense DVOA against tight ends. They present Arnold with an advantageous matchup.

Sixth, the Cardinals are No. 2 on the slate with their 30.25-point implied Vegas total. Fantasy points will abound.

Seventh, wide receiver Christian Kirk (groin) missed Wednesday and Thursday practices and is uncertain to play this week. If he’s out or limited, Arnold might get a boost in target volume.

The problem, though, is that Dan Arnold is still Dan Arnold. For the year he is 4-47-0 receiving on six targets. Yes, in Week 17 last year he had a 4-76-1 performance on six targets — but his 23-yard touchdown came on a blown coverage.

Now, I’m not above hoping for a blown coverage by the Lions. What are the odds they don’t blow a coverage at some point?

But I don’t want to give the impression that a guy who is 10-149-2 receiving on 16 targets in five games with the Cardinals has a high floor.

He is a justifiable punt play. I can see how he gets to 50 yards and a touchdown. But he could also have yet another scoreless game of 20-ish yards.

A low-end TE2 with touchdown-dependent upside in season-long leagues, Arnold is the No. 1 tight end in the CSURAM88, Koerner, Raybon, SportsGeek and Freedman Models for DraftKings.

Upside Tight Ends for Guaranteed Prize Pools

Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders ($5,700 DK, $6,600 FD): Week 3 salaries were set on Sunday before the Raiders played the next day, so Waller comes with something of a Monday Night Football discount, as he should probably be the slate’s highest-salaried tight end after his 16-target, 12-105-1 receiving performance.

Waller (knee) did not practice on Wednesday and Thursday, so he needs to be monitored. The Patriots were No. 7 with a -10.6% DVOA against tight ends last year, but Waller leads the entire league — not just tight ends — with his 39% target share.

Noah Fant, Denver Broncos ($5,400 DK, $5,800 FD): Last year, Fant was a dead-on statistical ringer for rookie-season George Kittle with his 8.5 yards per target …

… and in Weeks 1-2 he impersonated his former Iowa teammate to perfection with 5-81-1 and 4-57-1 receiving performances. Fant has been aggressively priced up over the past two weeks, but he should continue to function as the team’s top pass-catching option without No. 1 wide receiver Courtland Sutton (knee, IR). He has position-high marks with his 99% Leverage Score on DraftKings and 99% Bargain Rating on FanDuel.

T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions ($5,300 DK, $5,400 FD): An obscure fact that almost nobody knows, but Hockenson was 6-131-1 receiving against the Cardinals last year in his NFL debut. It went totally under the radar when it happened.

Last year the Cardinals were No. 32 with a 28.2% pass-defense DVOA against tight ends.

Jonnu Smith, Tennessee Titans ($5,200 DK, $5,600 FD): A top-three fantasy tight end, Smith balled out in Week 2 with No. 1 wide receiver A.J. Brown (knee) out of the lineup.

An after-the-catch accumulator, Smith has an elite 9.5 yards per target since 2018 and is No. 2 at the position with 2.79 yards per route (per PFF). With an 8-120-3 receiving stat line on 12 targets (four in the red zone, two in the end zone), Smith should continue to dominate without Brown, who looks unlikely to play after missing practice on Wednesday and Thursday.

Evan Engram, New York Giants ($5,000 DK, $5,900 FD): I feel as if I should write a blurb on Egnram … so this is that blurb. He has a tough matchup with strong safety Jaquiski Tartt — the 49ers were No. 2 last year with a -33.4% pass-defense DVOA against tight ends — but Engram should see more targets with running back Saquon Barkley (knee, IR) and wide receiver Sterling Shepard (toe, IR) both out.

Hunter Henry, Los Angeles Chargers ($4,800 DK, $6,000 FD): With both quarterbacks Tyrod Taylor and Justin Herbert, Henry has consistently produced this year, ranking No. 2 at the position with 108 AirYAC per game and No. 3 with 2.64 yards per route. Since last year, Henry is the No. 8 fantasy tight end with 12.9 points at DraftKings, where he has a position-high nine Pro Trends.

Hayden Hurst, Atlanta Falcons ($4,600 DK, $5,700 FD): In his first two games with the Falcons, Hurst has flashed his Austin Hooper-replacement ability with 8-110-1 receiving on 13 targets. He’s No. 3 at the position with 78 routes run and in line to see more action if No. 1 wide receiver Julio Jones (hamstring) misses times.

Dalton Schultz, Dallas Cowboys ($4,400 DK, $5,900 FD): No. 5 at the position with 14.1 expected receiving fantasy points on the season, Schultz introduced himself to the world in Week 2 with 9-88-1 receiving on 10 targets. Safeties Jamal Adams and Quandre Diggs present a tough matchup, but the Seahawks-Cowboys game has a slate-high 56.5-point over/under, so Schultz could once again see inflated volume in a high-scoring back-and-forth heavyweight punch-out.

Jordan Reed, San Francisco 49ers ($4,000 DK, $5,300 FD): Starter George Kittle (knee) missed Week 2, and in his absence, backup and onetime top-three fantasy tight end Jordan Reed was 7-50-2 receiving on eight targets. Reed is No. 5 at the position with 2.58 yards per route, and he could have another big game with Kittle expected to sit in Week 3.

Mo Alie-Cox, Indianapolis Colts ($3,800 DK, $5,000 FD): In his first NFL game with a snap rate of at least 60%, Alie-Cox was 5-111-0 receiving on six targets in relief of the injured Jack Doyle (ankle).

Doyle has returned to practice and might play, but MAC is No. 1 at the position with 3.85 yards per route, and he has a great matchup against a Jets defense susceptible to tight ends without strong safety Jamal Adams (trade) and linebackers C.J. Mosley (Covid opt-out) and Blake Cashman (groin, IR).

Logan Thomas, Washington Football Team ($3,600 DK, $4,700 FD): The quarterback-turned-tight end hasn’t blown anyone away with his 8-63-1 stat line, but he’s No. 2 at the position with a 27% target share. Opposing tight end units have amassed top-two fantasy production with 25.4 DraftKings and 20.9 FanDuel points per game against the Browns, who might be without linebacker Mack Wilson (knee) and are definitely without All-American rookie Grant Delpit (Achilles, IR).

Chris Herndon, New York Jets ($3,400 DK, $5,000 FD): The Jets are without wide receivers Jamison Crowder (hamstring), Breshad Perriman (ankle) and Denzel Mims (hamstrings, plural; IR), so Herndon in theory should see an increased receiving workload — but that’s also what I thought last week. Cue Fleetwood Mac: “Been down one time, been down two time …”

FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns

For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network. For updates, see our FantasyLabs News Feed.



Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Rosemount, Minnesota, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

DRAFT Best Ball: The Top 100 NFL Players (July) Will Johnny Manziel Play in the NFL in 2018? 10 NFL Players Most Likely to Be Preseason Fantasy Superstars 2019 NFL Team Needs: Browns QB Baker Mayfield Needs a Left Tackle

About the Author

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. The only edge he has in anything is his knowledge of '90s music.