In MLB Recent Form Report, I apply filters listed under the “Adv Stats – Recent” heading of our MLB Trends tool. I am looking for players whose recent play has not shown up in their stats or for justification on players who have been exceeding or falling short of expectations. MLB Recent Form Report is released on Monday morning each week.
Pitchers
Felix Hernandez
The first thing I noticed once I pulled up today’s MLB model is Felix Hernandez’s recent velocity. Over the past 15 days, Hernandez’s average fastball velocity has been just 89.7 mph, which is nearly two mph lower than where it “should” be, based on recent history. In his last start against the Royals, Hernandez did increase his fastball velocity by about 0.5 mph, but it was still below average. Though some pitchers gradually ramp up their velocity as the season goes on, Hernandez doesn’t fit into that group. He began the 2015 season throwing 91.5-92 and more or less remained consistent through the season.
Hernandez is the type of pitcher who can get by, and even excel, without an overpowering fastball. In 2015, his fastball was just his fourth-most frequently thrown pitch. What is troubling is that the velocity is down on each of Hernandez’s main pitches this season. Also, in 2015, Hernandez had three pitches that generated around a 15-percent Swinging Strike Rate. In 2016, only his changeup is over 10 percent (13.6). His BABIP on each pitch is BELOW career norms, meaning that although King Felix’s surface numbers have not been great, they should probably be worse.
Unfortunately, I’m not done piling on Hernandez quite yet. In today’s MLB model, you will notice that Hernandez’s GB% over the past 15 days is 48 percent, which is eight percentage points lower than his 56-percent average over the past calendar year. When Hernandez is unable to induce groundballs at a high frequency, the results have been disastrous:
Steven Matz
Speaking of groundballs, Steven Matz has been getting them in bunches lately. Over the past 15 days leading into Monday’s matchup, Matz’s GB% sits at an elite 65 percent. When you compare that to his 50-percent average in the category over the past calendar year, it’s easy to see why his average distance allowed on batted balls is down by 20 feet over the same time period.
Matz’s 2016 stats are pretty remarkable when you consider he has only made five starts, and in one of them, he let up seven earned runs in under two innings of work. He has become a bit more reliant on his sinker – a pitch he’s thrown 62 percent of the time — and for good reason. On that individual pitch, he is inducing groundballs at a 60-percent clip (up from 47 percent last year). He has also lowered his wOBA allowed, while his BABIP allowed is up by 50 points. That is no easy feat. Matz’s first start of the season will likely be an extreme outlier, as he profiles as the type of pitcher opposing offenses will have a very hard time opening the floodgates against.
Batters
Byung-ho Park
Particularly because first base is such a loaded DFS position, Byung-ho Park has flown a bit under the radar. His stats over the past 15 days suggest that is a huge mistake on our collective part. His batted-ball exit velocity over that time frame is 97 mph, tied with Joey Votto for tops among those with 10 or more starts. He is making hard contact on half (51 percent) of all batted balls and his average distance has been 241 feet.
Rookies are always hard to project, but I’ll take my best shot using his batted-ball data. In 25 games, Park has posted an average distance of 238 feet and an average exit velocity of 96 mph. When I plug those ranges into our Trends tool, here are the most frequent matches:
Pretty good company. Of course, there is no guarantee he keeps producing at the same rate, as the sample size is very limited.
John Jaso
Set to do battle against a series of hittable righties in batter-friendly Great American Ball Park over the next few days, John Jaso may be a popular DFS option. His advanced stats over the past 15 days though are pretty bad. Making hard contact on just 17 percent of batted balls, Jaso’s line-drive rate sits at a horrible two percent over the time frame. It has translated into an average distance of 170 feet and an average exit velocity of 84 mph. That represents a loss of four miles per hour and nearly 30 feet compared to his yearly numbers.
When a player’s average distance takes this kind of a nosedive, they lose roughly one-third of a fantasy point per game right off the bat.
Before we leave Jaso though, let’s consider that he only has 39 career home runs. He is not someone you would typically roster for power. Because of this, as long as Jaso is able to get on base against the Reds, he’ll have a good chance to score runs assuming he hits atop the order. Jaso’s road back to fantasy relevance isn’t as long as it would be for other hitters with similarly poor numbers. In fact, when Jaso’s average recent distance has been under 180 feet, he has been terrific. Obviously, you’ll need to note the small sample size here.
This week’s foursome was quite the motley crew. We looked at one future Hall of Fame pitcher with troubling indicators, one rising star who is dominating with groundballs, and two first basemen — one who is crushing the ball and one who isn’t (but that’s OK). As always, this article is only scratching the surface, so head over to our MLB Trends tool and see what you can uncover for yourself!
