During most of the NBA season this year, I wrote a weekly series called “NBA Trend Testing,” in which I would use the FantasyLabs Trends tool to create a custom trend and then track the results of my matches for the week. The goal is to create trends with high Plus/Minus values and share them with our readers. I will be doing the same thing during MLB season and will be posting an article every Friday which will review the past week’s custom trend.
Description
My goal with this week’s trend was to combine one of our new advanced stats with a filter that has traditionally brought positive results in order to hopefully achieve a high Plus/Minus while using some of our cutting-edge data. I’m looking at pitchers on FanDuel, so for my “traditionally positive” filter, I’m going to match pitchers whose team is favored. Wins are pretty heavily weighted on FanDuel, so this is always a good place to start. Using our advanced stat filters, I’m also going to match pitchers whose average velocity is up more than 0.5 mph over the past 15 days.
Since you can only use one pitcher on FanDuel, this is the position that you HAVE to nail if you’re going to have any chance of cashing. The results above are pretty encouraging – we’re getting over two fantasy points per game by playing this trend’s matches.
The filters I used to create this trend were:
• The team is the favorite
• The player’s 15-day velocity difference is between 0.6-12.5
Results
5/2
Jon Gray was everybody’s favorite play on Monday, so I was happy to roster him for this article. When I went to bed on Monday night, Gray had just finished letting up two earned runs in the first inning and I was pretty disappointed in him. In the morning, I was surprised to see that those were the only runs he would allow on the night. East Coast DFSers know these situations usually break the other way – where you think your team is doing well, then you go to sleep, and wake up to find out you lost all the money due to the late games. I’m not sure there is a worse stomach-punch in DFS than that feeling.
Anyway, back to Gray. So far in 2016, he has eclipsed an average fastball velocity of 95 mph in both of his 2016 starts, something he only accomplished in three-of-nine starts during 2015. I love targeting pitchers who were already throwing hard and whose recent velocity has increased, and as long as Gray is getting his fastball across at 95-96 mph, I will probably continue to be a buyer in his road starts. Not getting the win here hurt a bit, as it would have given me 12 extra points, but you really can’t complain about getting 45 fantasy points for $5,500.
5/3
Matt Moore was a guy I unfortunately had quite a bit of on Tuesday. As you can tell, it did not work out for me. When I decided to roster Moore in cash, it was because he was facing a lineup that had been struggling against lefties, he had a very positive Park Factor, and the line was moving in his direction. The fact that his recent velocity was up 1.5 mph coming into this start was just icing on the cake. Well, sometimes things just don’t work out, and that sucks. But based on the information I had going into the night, I think the process that led to the pick was correct.
I’m not sure that I would willingly roster Chris Young even if he started throwing 120 mph suddenly. Nonetheless, Chris Young is a two-pitch guy (fastball and slider), and this is proof that both of his pitches are being thrown a few ticks higher than normal. Use that information however you want.
5/4
Hector Santiago usually throws 90-91 mph and had been up around 92-93 mph during his first several starts to the season, which qualified him for this trend. The increased velocity even resulted in a somewhat uncharacteristic 10-K game against the White Sox on 4/18. His performance on 5/4 was sort of a letdown then, as he couldn’t make it out of the sixth inning and only racked up four K’s in the process.
5/6
Since there were no matches yesterday, let’s instead take a look at tonight’s match, Taijuan Walker (@HOU). Walker’s 95.5 average fastball velocity during his last start was the second highest of his career. When his recent velocity exceeds 94 mph, Walker has excelled, posting a +5.3 Plus/Minus (against +2.67 with no velocity filter).
The Astros are currently third in the league in ISO, but strike out the second-most frequently vs. righties, so the range of outcomes is pretty wide here.
Review
I do really like the idea of targeting pitchers who are throwing hard in games where their team is favored. If you want to play around with the trend for yourself and don’t mind decreasing the sample size, here is one change you could make:
• Add a Recent Pitch Speed filter (Adv Stats – Recent>Pitch Speed – 15) to match only players who have exceeded 95 mph over the past 15 days. By adding this filter, the Plus/Minus will jump to nearly +5.0 on FanDuel.
That’s not the only change you could make, so head over to our MLB Trends tool and use your imagination!
