Saturday features a 10-game main slate on FanDuel and DraftKings starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Tonight’s main slate is somewhat limited in top-tier pitching options, with only two priced above $9,000 on FanDuel.
Studs
- Zac Gallen (R) $10,000
- Zack Wheeler (R) $9,100
Gallen has been on fire lately, picking up his fourth quality start in a row last game against the Oakland Athletics. On the season, he sports a solid 2.40 ERA and has been striking out batters at a 10.8 K/9 rate over 30 innings. In his last start against the red-hot hitting A’s, he was brilliant, allowing only three hits while striking out eight across seven innings.
Tonight the 25-year-old right-hander takes the mound in an exploitable matchup against the San Francisco Giants. As a team, the Giants have been an average offense this year, ranking middle of the league in team isolated power (.168 ISO) and weighted on-base percentage (.318 wOBA). In addition, the projected lineup of the Giants owns a 21% strikeout rate, providing Gallen with some strikeout upside in this matchup.
Gallen also has decent Vegas odds working in his favor, as the Diamondbacks are road favorites at -156 odds (FanDuel Sportsbook); that’s an implied probability of 59% to win. According to the Bales Model, Gallen is expected to score 31.29 points on FanDuel tonight, which ranks second on the main slate. Although he is projected to be one of the highest-scoring pitching options, the model does not project Gallen as a strong value, though, evidenced by his -3.1 Projected Plus/Minus.
On a slate where top-tier pitching options are somewhat limited, Gallen is a solid play in all formats. However, given his elevated salary of $10,000 and several hitters worth paying up for, I am more inclined to find better value at pitcher today.
Wheeler is taking the mound tonight on the road against the Atlanta Braves. The Phillies will look for Wheeler to pitch deep into this game, as last night they had to go to the bullpen early after the Braves forced Aaron Nola out after only 2.2 innings. The Braves present a difficult task for Wheeler, as they have hit right-handed pitching well this year, ranking top-five in team slugging percentage (.480 SLG) and weighted runs-created plus (119 wRC+).
Despite the difficult matchup, there are some things working in Wheeler’s favor. The biggest advantage is that the Braves are expected to be without Ronald Acuna Jr., Nick Markakis and Ozzie Albies for tonight’s game. In addition, the projected lineup of the Braves boasts a 26.7% strikeout rate: Wheeler will have his opportunities to rack up big points.
Wheeler owns the highest median and ceiling projections in the Bales Model. Although the matchup is less than ideal, I do think Wheeler makes for an intriguing play in tournaments, where he is projected to see lower ownership. For cash games, I believe that Wheeler is a decent option due to his ability to pitch deep into games; however, there are some better value pitchers on this slate to consider rostering.
Values
- Kyle Hendricks (R) $8,700
- Dustin May (R) $7,000
Hendricks has pitched well to start the year, sporting a solid 2.71 FIP. He’s pitched at least six innings in all but one of his starts.Tonight he has an exploitable matchup at home against the Chicago White Sox, who own a 25.3% strikeout rate. The Cubs are home favorites at -184 odds (FanDuel Sportsbook) and projected to score 6.1 runs compared to the White Sox’s 4.6 implied run total.
From the Bales Model, Hendricks is projected to score 26.78 points on FanDuel.
May takes the mound tonight in a matchup against the Colorado Rockies. In his last start against the Angels, May was not as efficient as he would have liked, allowing seven hits and getting pulled after only 4.1 innings. Despite the shaky previous start, I like May’s chances to rebound here in a more favorable matchup against the Rockies.
The Rockies as a team get the benefit of playing their home games at Coors Field: the greatest ballpark for offensive run production. If we take a look at their team splits outside of their home ballpark, the Rockies offense is below-average, especially against right-handed pitching. As a team in 2019, they really struggled against right-handed pitching to the tune of a .285 wOBA, .140 ISO and 25.5% strikeout rate. It is because of these struggles why they own a slate-low implied run total of 3.4.
If May can be more efficient with his pitches tonight, look for him to easily pay off his low $7,000 price tag on FanDuel. May leads all pitchers in the Bales Model with five Pro Trends and is projected to score 27.79 points on FanDuel. He grades out as a solid value play, owning a + 4.24 Projected Plus/Minus. Roster May in all formats, especially cash games where his lower salary allows you to plug in some of the best hitters of the slate.
Fastballs
- Justus Sheffield (L) $7,500
- Triston McKenzie (R) $6,000
After a shaky start to the season, Sheffield has pitched well in his last two starts, going at least six innings and allowing only one run. Tonight he takes the mound at home in a favorable matchup against the Texas Rangers.
The Rangers have really struggled to score runs this year, ranking second-worst in wRC+ (69). In addition, the projected Rangers lineup owns a 23.6% strikeout rate and is projected to score just four runs, which ranks third-lowest on the slate.
From the Bales Model, Sheffield is projected to score 26.37 points on FanDuel. The Mariners are home favorites at -142 odds (FanDuel Sportsbook), making it likely that Sheffield will pick up the win. He sets up as a decent value play in his matchup.
McKenzie is making his major league debut for the Cleveland Indians tonight. He sets up as a decent value play in his matchup against the Detroit Tigers.
The Tigers lineup owns a 28% strikeout rate, which bodes well for McKenzie’s fantasy upside. According to the Bales Model, he has a strong Projected Plus/Minus of + 7.25 today. The Indians also have an implied run total of 5.4, so it is likely that McKenzie can pick up the win here.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into your DFS lineups. Today’s top four-man FanDuel stack according to the Bales Model belongs to the Chicago Cubs:
- Kris Bryant (R) $3,200
- Anthony Rizzo (L) $3,400
- Javier Baez (R) $3,100
- Kyle Schwarber (L) $2,700
Total Salary: $12,400
The Cubs are implied to score a slate-high 6.1 runs tonight against projected starting pitcher Reynaldo Lopez (R). While it is not confirmed that Lopez will start at the time of writing this article, it would be a solid matchup for the Cubs offense. If Lopez does indeed take the mound, he could be on a pitch limit, allowing the Cubs hitters to get to the White Sox bullpen early. In addition, the wind is forecasted to be blowing out at 7 mph, which could cause routine fly balls to leave the ball park. The projected 1-4 hitters are projected to score 51.29 points in the Bales Model.
The top five-man stack on DraftKings belongs to the Cleveland Indians:
- Cesar Hernandez (S) $4,700
- Jose Ramirez (S) $5,400
- Francisco Lindor (S) $5.300
- Carlos Santana (S) $4,400
- Franmil Reyes (R) $4,500
Total Salary: $24,300
The Indians are projected to score 5.4 runs in their matchup against Tyler Boyd. The complete stack is projected to score 46.71 points, and all five hitters sport higher player ratings in the Bales Model.
Ramirez stands out as the best hitter of the entire slate, leading all players in ceiling projection for both DraftKings and FanDuel. The best part about rostering Ramirez is that he is a switch hitter, so even if the Indians force Boyd out of this game early, he is still going to be in favorable situations.
Top Bats
Kyle Schwarber (L) $2,700
Schwarber is an affordable way for you to get exposure to the Cubs offense tonight. He is projected to bat cleanup against righty Reynaldo Lopez. For his career, Schwarber has crushed right-handed pitching at his home ballpark to the tune of 54 home runs and a .297 ISO. He grades out as a solid value option on FanDuel with a Projected Plus/Minus of + 3.55, which ranks best on the slate.
Jordan Luplow (R) $2,300
Luplow is projected to bat sixth for the Indians, who are projected to score 5.4 runs against Tyler Boyd. He has hit left-handed pitching well throughout his career (.338 ISO/.401 wOBA) and should have ample opportunities to pay off his low salary. Luplow is projected to score 10.36 points on FanDuel and owns a high rating in the Bales Model.
Paul Goldschmidt (R) $3,600
Goldschmidt is one of my favorite one-off plays of the entire slate. The Cardinals are projected to score 5.0 runs against southpaw Wade Miley. Throughout his career, Goldschmidt has crushed left-handed pitching, posting a solid .269 ISO and .423 wOBA. Look for him to improve on those numbers tonight.
After reading this article, be sure to check out the FantasyLabs news for injury updates, inactive reports, and lineup changes before the MLB DFS slate kicks off this evening.
