NBA DFS Breakdown (Friday, Aug. 14): Fade All the Studs?

The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.

Friday features a four-game slate starting at 1:30 p.m. ET.

If you thought Thursday’s slate was wild, just wait until today’s. All eight teams in action have already secured their playoff positioning, so there could be a lot of lineup chicanery. Most teams have already put out an extensive injury report, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see more players ruled out before tip-off.

With that in mind, make sure to utilize the Labs Insiders’ NBA tool to stay up to date on all of the most recent lineup news.

Point Guard

Stud

The PG position is a bit thin today. No one at the position is priced above $6,900 on FanDuel, and none of the higher-priced options are guaranteed to play a full workload.

That said, Malcolm Brogdon has been removed from the Pacers’ injury report, so it seems like he will play at least in some capacity. The Pacers will be without Victor Oladipo, T.J. Warren, and Myles Turner, and Brogdon has increased his usage rate by +15.8% with all three players and Domantas Sabonis off the court this season.

Value

The Nuggets will be without Gary Harris and Will Barton for the eighth straight game, so Monte Morris should continue to play a healthy number of minutes. The Nuggets have employed a balanced rotation recently – nine players saw between 19 and 28.5 minutes in their last game – and Morris was one of those players. His salary has dropped to just $3,700 on FanDuel, so he doesn’t need a ton of minutes to pay off his current salary.

Fast Break

The Oklahoma City Thunder will be an interesting team to monitor today. Chris Paul and Luguentz Dort have already been ruled out, and Dennis Schroder remains away from the team for personal reasons.

They could certainly rest more of their regulars on today’s slate, but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander should be a strong option while he’s on the court. He’s increased his usage rate by +10.0% with all three players off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.20 DraftKings points per minute.

If you think most teams are going to limit their regulars today – which is a strong possibility – T.J. McConnell could be a strong option. He will likely play a solid handful of minutes even if the starters are limited, and McConnell has averaged 1.01 FanDuel points per minute this season.

Shooting Guard

Stud

The Rockets are going to be without Russell Westbrook for their final seeding game and the beginning of the playoffs. That means James Harden is going to command an even larger usage rate than usual.

Will that start today? I doubt it. The Rockets are already locked in to a first-round matchup vs. the Thunder, so it’s much more important for Harden to get a little rest for the playoffs than perform in a meaningless game vs. the 76ers.

Still, even if he plays around 20 minutes, he has the potential to be one of the higher scoring players on the slate. He probably won’t return value with a limited workload but scoring 40 fantasy points might make him the highest scorer on the slate. It’s an interesting dynamic to consider.

Value

The Miami Heat are basically resting everyone possible tomorrow. Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Goran Dragic have already been ruled out, while Jae Crowder, Derrick Jones Jr., and Andre Iguodala are questionable. If all three of those questionable players sit, it will leave the Heat with just nine active players.

Tyler Herro is one of the few players who hasn’t been listed on the injury report, and he has the potential to put up a big game if the coaching staff lets him. He’s already put together a game with 51.0 DraftKings points in the bubble.

Fast Break

Hamidou Diallo is an interesting value if you think the Thunder are going to take it easy on their starters. He’s dirt cheap at just $3,900 on FanDuel, and he’s historically been pretty productive when on the court. He’s averaged 0.73 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he can take advantage of extra playing time.

Alec Burks is someone who can do some damage for the 76ers today. He’s a good bet to lead the 76ers in usage if they decide to rest their starters, and he scored 34.5 DraftKings points the last time the 76ers give their stars the night off.

Small Forward

Stud

None of the top SF options on today’s slate figure to see much playing time, and none has the same short-term upside as Harden. It’s definitely reasonable to avoid all of these options altogether.

That said, if you do insist on paying up at the position, Michael Porter Jr. could be in play. He’s still playing in his first season, so protecting him probably isn’t as big of a priority for the Nuggets as protecting Kawhi Leonard is to the Clippers. He’s averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute this season, and that should be expected to go up if Nikola Jokic is ruled out.

Value

Justin Holiday should see a slight bump in minutes today with Warren out of the lineup, and he’s reasonably priced across the industry. Holiday is coming off 35.0 DraftKings points in his last game, and that was with Oladipo and Turner combining for 40 shots.

Fast Break

Danuel House has been priced down all the way to $3,800 on FanDuel, which makes him one of the best pure values at the position. He’s provided solid value with a comparable salary this season, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.54 over 29 games (per the Trends tool).

Darius Bazley has been a fantasy monster over his past two games, scoring at least 42.8 FanDuel points in each contest. He’s been priced up a bit across the industry, but he should benefit from the Thunder’s current injury situation.

Power Forward

Stud

Are you sensing a theme here? PF is another weak position on today’s slate, particularly on FanDuel.

On DraftKings, you could potentially look at Tobias Harris if he’s in the lineup. He’s increased his usage rate by +1.6% in games without Ben Simmons, resulting in an average of 1.10 DraftKings points per minute.

Value

Kelly Olynyk is another member of the Heat who avoided the injury report, so it appears that he will suit up vs. the Pacers. He’s been excellent in Orlando, scoring at least 22.5 DraftKings points in six of his first seven games. The only exception was his last game, where he was limited to just 18.7 minutes. They may have no choice but to increase his workload if all their questionable players are ruled out.

Fast Break

Jerami Grant returned to the Nuggets’ rotation in their last game, and he finished with 37.5 DraftKings points over 28. 2 minutes. He finished second on the team in minutes in his last game – only Jokic played more – which bodes well for his prospects today. He’s underpriced at just $4,800 on FanDuel.

Jeff Green is another player who should have a pretty safe workload today. He’s pretty far down on the pecking order for the Rockets, which is why he’s played at least 30.3 minutes in each of his past two games. He’s doesn’t provide much outside of scoring, but it’s hard to pass up someone with the potential to play 30 minutes on today’s slate.

Center

Stud

Jokic appears to have a bit more safety on today’s slate than some of the other high-priced options. Safety is not something you typically associate with Jokic, but he’s coming off 28.8 minutes in his last outing. Jokic isn’t listed on the injury report, so he could be looking at a similar minute count today. Jokic has averaged 1.42 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he’s capable of making the most of his playing time.

Value

If the Nuggets do decide to pull all of their starters, Bol Bol could be a solid option at the absolute minimum on FanDuel. He’s averaged 0.89 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he has some upside if he sees some additional playing time.

Fast Break

Chris Boucher has been a major benefactor of the end-of-season shenanigans. Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol have been either out or limited recently, which has allowed Boucher to absorb a few additional minutes. He’s taken full advantage, scoring at least 40.8 FanDuel points in back-to-back games. He’s been priced up a bit across the industry, but he still has plenty of upside at his $5,000 on FanDuel.