The year’s first major did not disappoint last week as we saw close to a dozen players with a chance to win heading into the final nine holes. Collin Morikawa ended up breaking away from the pack with an incredible drive on the 16th hole, setting up an eagle and clinching the 2020 PGA Championship.
This week we head east to North Carolina as Sedgefield Country Club hosts the 2020 Wyndham Championship. Players will be battling for FedEx points as this is the last event before the playoffs begin with only the top 125 in the standings advancing. Let’s take a look at how the course will be played.
Key Stats
For those who played last week, this week will seem like pitch and putt. Sedgefield will play as a par 70 from roughly 7,100 yards and will have minimal rough. Looking at previous winners as well as top 20s, we can see a pattern of Strokes Gained: Tee to Green (SG:T2G) to be the top stat of the week. Birdies or Better % (BoB%) alongside Greens in Regulation (GIR) will be keys this week because you will have to get to at least -20 to win. Eight of the par-4s this week will be playing from 400-450 (Par 4 Scoring 400-450) yards, creating a lot of wedge opportunities. Bogey Avoidance (BA) rounds out our top stats for the week.
You can find a full breakdown of the course by checking out Chris’ full tournament breakdown at Wyndham Preview.
Core Plays
Patrick Reed ($10,700 DraftKings; $11,600 FanDuel) has not finished worse than 24th in his three return trips to the place where he captured his first PGA TOUR win in 2013. Reed’s ownership could come in on the lower side than most think due to his GIR and SG:BS rankings being outside the top 50 to the field.
Reed has gained 3.6 SG:T2G in three of his last four starts, including gaining nine strokes last week at the PGA Championship where he placed 13th. Along with a top-20 ranking in SG:T2G to the field this week, he ranks 16th in both BoB% and BA. Reed is one of the top wedge players on the PGA Tour and will have plenty of birdie opportunities to go low this week.
Billy Horschel ($9,100 DraftKings; $10,400 FanDuel) seems to really enjoy playing at Sedgefield CC. He has finished tied for 11th or better in three of his last four starts here including a T-6 last year. Adding to his great history at the Wyndham Championship, Horschel has finished tied for 25th or better in three of his last four starts including a T-7 at the Workday Charity Open five weeks ago.
Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Billy Horschel
Horschel is ranked fifth in BoB% to the field over the last 24 rounds offsetting his 72nd ranking in BA. Like Reed, he has a phenomenal wedge game and ranks 25th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450. The 2014 FedEx Cup Champion ranks 50th in FedEx points this season and will look to rise to the coveted top 30 for a chance to play in the TOUR Championship.
Value Plays
Russell Henley ($7,700 DraftKings; $9,700) is a T2G monster. He has gained 6.5 SG:T2G or better in five of his last seven starts and ranks first in the field for the week. Henley ranks first in the field in BA in large part to his ranking of first in GIR and second in SG:BS. Losing strokes in SG:P in each of his last four starts, he comes to a course where he can hit it closer and hopefully start making some putts.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,700 DraftKings; $9,000 FanDuel) has so much talent but cannot seem to find anything to help him off the tee. Luckily we have a short par-70 course for him to improve his OTT numbers. Bezuidenhout placed 22nd at the Memorial and 20th at the WGC St Jude before missing the cut by one at last week’s PGA Championship. Ranking 11th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450, 21st in GIR and 26th in BA, the 26-year-old South African should find plenty of scoring opportunities this week.
Sleeper Plays
Zach Johnson ($7,000 DraftKings; $8,300 FanDuel) is one of my favorite plays of the week. Johnson, despite missing the cut by one stroke last week, did shoot an opening round 66 before following it up with a 76. He is not going to light up the scoreboard with birdies, but he rarely makes bogeys ranking fifth in BA. Johnson also ranks 26th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 and 36th in GIR. Before missing the cut last week, the 44-year-old PGA TOUR vet reeled off three straight cuts made including an 11th-place finish at the Travelers.
Seamus Power ($6,400 DraftKings; $7,600 FanDuel) will be looking to avoid the dreaded over par round that seems to haunt him each tournament. The Barracuda Championship, although scored in Stableford format, was the first tournament since 2019 in which he did not post an over par round, shooting 66-70-67-69 to finish in ninth place. Power is ranked 161st in the FedEx Cup and will likely need a a very high finish to make the playoffs and keep his season alive. Look for him to make a lot of birdies this week as he comes into the week ranking 23rd in BoB%.
Other Targets
- Brooks Koepka ($11,400 DraftKings; $12,200 FanDuel) ranks first in BoB%, fourth in Par 4 Scoring 400-450, eighth in GIR, 11th in SG:BS and 14th in SG:T2G. He is playing for FedEx Cup points as he comes into the week ranking 92nd.
Ray Carlin-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Brooks Koepka
- Harris English ($9,300 DraftKings; $10,900 FanDuel) ranks third in BA, 13th in SG:T2G, 21st in SG:BS and 28th in BoB%. He has three top 25s in last four starts and three finishes of 11th or better at the Wyndham Championship in the last four seasons.
- Harold Varner III ($7,600 DarftKings; $9,200 FanDuel) ranks fourth in both SG:T2G and GIR, ninth in SG:BS and 17th in Par 4 Scoring 400-450. He finished T-29 at the PGA Championship last week.
- Sam Burns ($7,200 DraftKings; $8,800 FanDuel) ranks fourth in BoB%, 19th in GIR and 33rd in both BA and Par 4 Scoring 400-450. He has placed 32nd or better in each of his last three starts.
- Brice Garnett ($6,700 DraftKings; $8,500 FanDuel) ranks second in Par 4 Scoring 400-450, seventh in GIR and 14th in BA, and has three straight top 20s at Sedgefield CC.
