Tuesday features a 12 game MLB DFS slate on DraftKings and FanDuel starting at 7:05 pm. ET. I’ll feature my favorite plays of the slate and identify value options using the FantasyLabs tools and models.
Pitchers
Studs
There are three pitchers priced above $9,000 on FanDuel:
- Max Scherzer (R) $10,700
- Dylan Bundy (R) $9,700
- Zack Wheeler (R) $9,000
Three-time Cy Young award winner Max Scherzer headlines tonight’s main slate as the most expensive pitcher.
The 36-year-old ace is scheduled to take the mound tonight at Citi Field against the New York Mets. In his last start on Aug. 7, he was forced to exit the game following the first inning after tweaking his hamstring. It was clear that the injury was affecting the command and velocity of his pitches, so he took himself out of the game rather than continue and risk further injury.
Reports indicate that Scherzer is good to go for tonight’s match up against the Mets after successfully completing a bullpen session over the weekend. There has been no mention of a pitch count or limitations for Scherzer so we can expect him to pitch his usual full workload.
Prior to the minor setback, Scherzer had been having a solid season posting a 2.46 FIP along with an elite 37.9% strikeout rate. Tonight he has an exploitable match up against the Mets who do not have a great Vegas matchup and are projected to score only 3.9 runs.
As long as the hamstring holds up, Scherzer is a strong option in all formats especially tournaments, as he could carry lower ownership than usual due to the injury concerns. He is projected to score a slate-high 42.21 points and owns the highest rating of all starting pitchers in the Bales Model at 66.06. Prior to locking Scherzer into your DFS lineups, remember to check out the FantasyLabs news page for updates on his status.
Although Scherzer grades out as the top rated pitcher in the Bales Model, there are other solid pitchers that come at a discount. On this slate where we have a high total Coors Field game, finding value at starting pitcher is needed to prioritize some of the best bats on the slate.
Dylan Bundy has been a fantastic addition to the Angels rotation this year posting an impressive 2.08 ERA, 2.42 FIP and a 31.3% strike out rate. In his last start against the Mariners, Bundy was brilliant, allowing only one run across nine innings while striking out 10 batters.
Tonight the 27-year-old right-hander faces a much tougher task in facing the Oakland Athletics. While the Athletics have several power hitters throughout their lineup such as Matt Olson (.273 ISO) and Matt Chapman (.262 ISO), they also strikeout at a high rate of 27.2%.
One factor working in Bundy’s favor tonight is that he is pitching at Angel stadium that really limits left-handed power due to the 18-foot high right field wall that sits 400 feet from home plate. If Bundy can limit his walks and work around the power bats in this lineup he can pay off his $9,700 price tag.
According to the Bales Model, Bundy is the eight highest rated pitcher at 53.2 and is projected to score 30.52 points on FanDuel.
Another stud pitcher who comes at a reasonable price tag is Zack Wheeler. In his first two starts as a member of the Philadelphia Phillies Wheeler is 2-0 and has posted a respectable 2.08 ERA and 3.97 FIP. In each of his past two starts against the Yankees and Bluejays, Wheeler pitched at least six innings and has done a fantastic job at limiting hard contact and keeping the ball on the ground (23.7% HC and 58% ground ball rate).
The only knock on Wheeler in 2020 has been his surprisingly low strikeout rate at 12%. However, I anticipate some positive regression is coming for Wheeler in the strikeout department since for his career he has boasted a 22.3% strikeout rate.
Tonight Wheeler has an exploitable matchup against the Baltimore Orioles. The Phillies come into tonight as heavy favorites at -184 (FanDuel Sportsbook) and are projected to score 4.9 runs compared to the the Orioles’ 3.7 implied runs total. In addition, do to the recent struggles of the Phillies’ bullpen (8.10 ERA), Joe Giraridi is likely to allow Wheeler to pitch deep into this game, thus increasing his chances of getting a quality start.
From the Bales Model, Wheeler is projected to score 34.74 points which ranks second on the main slate. At his low salary at $9,000 Wheeler is my favorite starting pitcher play on the slate and comes in at a projected Plus/Minus of +3.67. Look for him to deliver a solid outing against the Orioles tonight.
Values
- Ross Stripling (R) $8,300
- Mike Minor (L) $7,500
Ross stripling has had a decent start to the 2020 season despite some concerning recent batted ball data. Although he has three wins on the season, he has been giving up a lot of fly balls (44.2%) and hard contact (48.1%) to opposing batters. Tonight he will look to improve on these metrics as takes the mound against a familiar opponent in the San Diego Padres.
Stripling’s price of $8,200 offers decent value and the Dodgers are -154 at FanDuel Sportsbook giving him a good chance to pick up the win. In the Bales Model Stripling has a pitcher rating of 58.11 and is expected to score only 25.29 points. With his salary being $700 less than Wheeler’s, I am more likely to find value bats so I can move up to roster Wheeler in my lineups tonight.
Mike Minor gets a favorable match up against the Seattle Mariners. The projected lineup of the Mariners boasts a 23.7% strikeout rate and the Mariners are projected to score only 4.1 runs. Minor did not look great in his last start against the Athletics and he is only expected to throw 80-85 pitches tonight which will limit his ceiling.
In the Bales Model, he has the second best pitcher rating at 62.43 and grades out as a decent value play with a projected Plus/Minus of +7.41. Overall Minor is not a guy I am ever excited to roster but given the price and exploitable matchup Minor can be restored as a value pitcher on the main slate.
- Touki Toussaint (R) $7,400
- Adam Plutko (R) $6,400
Touki Toussaint draws a dreadful match up against the Yankees who have hit right handed pitching well (.340 wOBA) and have an implied run total of 5.4, which ranks third-highest on the slate. Although the Vegas odds are less than ideal, Toussaint in his two starts has shown the ability to rack up strikeouts against right-handed batters at an impressive rate (38.5%).
One factor working in Toussaint’s favor is that the Yankees will be entering this game without their slugger Giancarlo Stanton who was placed on the 10-day IR over the weekend. Toussaint does not grade out well in the Bales Model tonight as he is only projected to score 24.41 points, however he does have a modest ceiling projection of 37.7 points making him an intriguing low cost tournament play.
Adam Plutko is making the start today against the Cubs in place of Mike Clevinger who was forced to quarantine after violating team rules over the weekend. Plutko is only priced at $6,400 on FanDuel. He owns the second best rating in the Bales Model at 62.76 and a projected Plus/Minus of +4.9.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into your DFS lineups. Tonight’s top four-man FanDuel stack according to the Bales Model belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
- David Dahl (L) $3,400
- Trevor Story (R) $4,200
- Charlie Blackman (L) $4,400
- Nolan Arenado (R) $4,200
Total Salary: $16,200
The Rockies are implied to score 5.7 runs which ranks second on the slate. Tonight they face off against Zac Gallen who has pitched well to start the year (2.81 ERA) but will encounter trouble pitching in the hitter friendly ball park Coors field. In attacking Gallen, I am looking to roster several of the left-handed batters of the Rockies offense.
David Dahl is a solid bargain at his $3,400 price tag on FanDuel. Last year he crushed right handed pitching at Coors field (.221 ISO/.361 wOBA) and tonight he is projected to lead off giving him plenty at bats and opportunities to score runs. From the Bales Model, Dahl is projected to score 12.58 points on FanDuel and sets up as one of the better value plays on the slate coming in at a 98% bargain rating.
Tonight’s top four-man DraftKings stack, according to the Bales Model belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks:
- Ketel Marte (S) $5,200
- Starling Marte (R) $4,900
- Christian Walker (R) $4,600
- Eduardo Escobar (S) $3,900
Total Salary: $18,600
The Diamondbacks are implied to score 5.9 runs, which ranks first on the main slate.
Ketel Marte stands out as one of the better values of the slate on DraftKings at his price of $5,200 and is projected to score 10.74 points. He has been getting on base often to start the season boasting an impressive .333 batting average. He should be able to find plenty of opportunities to score runs tonight as he is projected to lead off in prime hitting conditions at Coors Field. Lock him into your line ups as a solid option in all formats.
Value Bats
Aaron Hicks (S) $2,400
Hicks is under-priced given the match up and high implied total of the Yankees (5.4). With Stanton expected to miss this game, look for Hicks to hit in the heart of the high-powered Yankees line up. Hicks grades out as an exceptional value play on FanDuel where he’s projected to score 12.11 points and owns a solid +3.09 Plus/Minus rating in the Bales Model.
Kyle Schwarber (L) 2,700
Schwarber is projected to hit cleanup tonight in the Cubs lineup. He ranks out as a great play against Adam Plutko due to his ability to hit right-handed pitching well (.298 ISO/.367 wOBA in 2019). The greatest advantage for Schwarber tonight is his chances of striking out are significantly reduced when facing Plutko as he only struck out 11.1% of left handed batters last year. Schwarber is projected to score 11.52 points on FanDuel and has a solid 98% Bargain Rating in the Bales Model.
Jeimer Candelario (S) 2100
Candelario has been hitting the baseball extremely well lately. In the last seven days he sports a .333 ISO and .525 wOBA. Tonight he faces Gio Gonzalez who has really struggled in 2020 given his 7.71 ERA and 6.63 FIP. At almost the minimum price on FanDuel, look for Candelario to easily pay off his $2,100 price tag.
After reading this article, be sure to check out the FantasyLabs news for injury updates, inactive reports, and lineup changes before the MLB DFS slate kicks off this evening.
Pictured above: Max Scherzer #31 of the Washington Nationals
Photo credit: G Fiume/Getty Images.
