Matthew Freedman publishes comprehensive positional breakdowns for the main NFL DFS slate throughout each week.
We’ll highlight one of the top players from each position (according to our Models) and his analysis of their outlooks below, but be sure to check out the full versions of each breakdown for the best cash-game and GPP plays for Week 16.
QB Breakdown
Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
Since returning in Week 8 from a hand injury, Brees has been the No. 4 fantasy quarterback with 23.1 FanDuel points per game, and he’s provided excellent value with his +5.67 Plus/Minus.
Over that time, he’s been elite, completing 75.7% of his attempts for 289.8 yards and 2.75 touchdowns to just 0.25 interceptions per game.
Right now, Brees is as good as he’s been at any point over the past few years. And while it’s not ideal for him to be playing away from the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, the Coors Field of fantasy football, this week might be the exception: Brees has a winnable matchup.
>> Read the full QB breakdown here
RB Breakdown
Sony Michel, New England Patriots
Anytime you can spend a first-round pick on a middling running back instead of a franchise quarterback, you pretty much have to, right?
Michel has been magnificently pedestrian this year with his 3.7 yards per carry and 4.7 yards per target. In his usage and skill set, he’s basically small LeGarrette Blount. And he’s an incredibly splits-driven back. If he doesn’t score a touchdown or if he gets fewer than 15 carries, he offers little.
But there’s reason to be optimistic about Michel this weekend: The Patriots have a slate-high implied total of 30.5 points, they’re massive home favorites and they’re playing the Dolphins.
>> Read the full RB breakdown here
WR Breakdown
Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons
Over the past two weeks, Julio has been without No. 2 wide receiver Calvin Ridley (abdomen, IR), and in his absence, he has exploded with a 23-300-2 receiving onslaught on 35 targets.
The only wide receivers on the team competing for targets with Jones are Russell Gage and Christian Blake, neither of whom opened the season as a starter. We shouldn’t expect Julio to get the 15-plus targets he’s seen in each of the past two games, but an eight-target minimum seems reasonable, and against the Bucs, that should be enough for Julio.
>> Read the full WR breakdown here
TE Breakdown
Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams
I’m approaching Higbee with cautious optimism. He’s fully healthy and has no reason to rest, and he’s been the No. 1 fantasy tight end with 24.2 DraftKings points per game since filling in for injured teammate Gerald Everett in Week 13.
Even though Everett returned to action last week, he played only four snaps and saw just one target. Higbee has straight-up stolen Everett’s job.
Over the past month, Higbee has had 100-plus yards and eight-plus targets in each week. He’s gone full Kelce Mode with his average of 109.5 yards and 0.25 touchdowns on 11 targets and 8.8 receptions per game in December. And his matchup is glorious.
>> Read the full TE breakdown here
