The Week 17 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Dec. 29, at 1 p.m. ET. In this piece, I highlight the running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical DFS Tools, most specifically our industry-leading FantasyLabs Models.
Top Running Backs in the FantasyLabs Models
There are four running backs atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.
- Ezekiel Elliott: $8,000 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel
- Alvin Kamara: $7,800 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel
- Jamaal Williams: $5,500 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
- Sony Michel: $4,900 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel
Odds as of Thursday morning and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
Ezekiel Elliott: Dallas Cowboys (-10.5) vs. Washington Redskins, 45.5 Over/Under
Zeke is one of the few locked-in high-volume backs in the league, and unlike a lot of other guys, he’s playing in a must-win game. If the Cowboys win and the Eagles lose, the Cowboys will win the NFC East.
So we should expect to see Zeke get his usual workload.
Let’s be honest: Zeke’s workload and production this year haven’t been up to his usual standards: He has career-low marks with 23.3 opportunities (carries plus targets), 22.3 touches and 110.2 scrimmage yards per game.
Last week he had 20 touches and a brazenly high 97% snap rate but just 84 scoreless yards in a must-win game.
The decline in his 2019 production is easily seen in his fantasy numbers (per our FantasyLabs Trends Tool).
- 2016 (16 games): 20.1 FanDuel points, +2.65 Plus/Minus
- 2017 (10 games): 19.0 FanDuel points, +3.56 Plus/Minus
- 2018 (17 games): 19.4 FanDuel points, +4.47 Plus/Minus
- 2019 (15 games): 17.3 FanDuel points, +2.29 Plus/Minus
Based on his 2019 Plus/Minus, Zeke has provided significantly less daily fantasy value than he has in previous years.
He’s been a fantasy RB1 in only eight of his 15 games this year (per the RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).
But if you discount Zeke’s holdout-impacted first month, he’s been the No. 3 fantasy running back with 18.1 FanDuel points per game since Week 5. He’s still one of the league’s best backs.
From a betting perspective, I don’t like the Cowboys this week: Road dogs are a delicious 36-20-1 against the spread and have yielded a 26% return on investment vs. the Cowboys under head coach Jason Garrett (since 2010, per our Bet Labs database). That mark makes the Cowboys the worst ATS team in the league as home favorites.
But Zeke has a great matchup. The Redskins have allowed the fourth-most FanDuel points to opposing backfields with 25.7 per game, and they are No. 28 in run defense grade (per Pro Football Focus).
Against the Redskins in Week 2 — while he was still working his way back into playing shape — Zeke has a 120-yard, one-touchdown performance.
Zeke is the No. 1 back in the Levitan, Raybon and SportsGeek Models for FanDuel, where he has a position-high 13 Pro Trends. He’s also the top option in the Levitan and SportsGeek Models for DraftKings, where he leads all backs with his floor projection.
Alvin Kamara: New Orleans Saints (-13) at Carolina Panthers, 45.5 O/U
Before last week’s 110-yard, two-touchdown outburst, Kamara has scored in just one game this season. For a guy with 1,273 scrimmage yards, Kamara has had a pretty negative season.
Despite consistently having one of the highest backfield salaries in each slate, Kamara is just the No. 12 fantasy running back with 14.6 FanDuel points per game. His year-over-year production has undoubtedly been a disappointment.
- 2018 (17 games): 20.2 FanDuel points, +5.20 Plus/Minus, 64.7% Consistency Rating
- 2019 (13 games): 14.6 FanDuel points, +0.84 Plus/Minus, 38.5% Consistency Rating
Last year, Kamara was a fantasy RB1 in 10 of 15 games. This year, he’s hit that threshold just five times.
Last year, he had seven games with 20-plus FanDuel points. This year, he’s had only three, and he didn’t have any in a 12-game stretch from Week 4 to Week 15.
But there are significant reasons to like Kamara.
Even though his production has underwhelmed, he’s averaged 11 carries, 7.9 targets and 6.6 receptions per game since returning from injury in Week 10. That’s near-elite usage, especially since a large portion of his opportunities is targets, which are inherently valuable because they yield more yards than carries and directly convert to fantasy points as receptions.
On top of that, Kamara is still due for a major reversal in touchdown luck, even with his two scores last week. It’s not as if Kamara is Leonard Fournette stuck in a bad offense. The Saints are No. 5 in the league with 27.7 points per game: There are touchdowns to go around.
And Kamara scored a lot of times in previous seasons. In 2017-18, Kamara had 100.0 scrimmage yards per game, and he averaged 106.1 yards per touchdown. This season, he’s averaged 97.9 yards per game, so it’s not as if his scrimmage production has dropped precipitously, but he has a bloated 318.3 yards per touchdown.
That number will regress toward his career average at some point.
Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41).
Most importantly, Kamara has a great matchup. The Panthers have allowed a league-high 29.2 FanDuel points per game and possess a funnel defense that ranks No. 9 against the pass but No. 32 against the run in DVOA (per Football Outsiders).
And I like the Saints this weekend. They are in the running for the No. 1 seed in the NFC, and the Panthers have lost seven straight games. Last week, in third-string rookie quarterback Will Grier’s first NFL start, the Panthers suffered a pathetic 38-6 defeat at the hands of the mediocre Colts.
Opponents are 2-0-1 ATS against the Fewell-led Panthers.
How have top-tier teams with something to play for historically done at the end of the season against bottom-feeder divisional rivals with limited motivation?
If we look at Week 17 divisional matchups between teams that are at least .650 and teams that are no greater than .350 — and if we exclude underdogs with strong records, since they are likely to be resting players — we get the answer: 21-14 ATS (18% ROI).
Kamara is the No. 1 back in the Bales, Koerner and Freedman Models for FanDuel, where he has elite marks with nine Pro Trends and a 96% Bargain Rating.
Jamaal Williams: Green Bay Packers (-12) at Detroit Lions, 43 O/U
For his second straight game on the main slate, Williams has popped in one of our Pro Models.
Honestly, I don’t like it all that much. Williams (shoulder) exited Monday Night Football in Week 16 with an injury, and he’s uncertain for Week 17.
Since the Week 11 bye, Williams has averaged just 6.5 FanDuel points on 8.4 carries and 3.2 targets per game.
But there are some clear reasons to like Williams this week.
First, he’s cheap at just $5,100 on FanDuel, where he has a 98% Bargain Rating. He provides roster flexibility.
Also, he’s likely to have a low ownership rate. Not once this year has Williams been rostered at even 5% on the main slate.
And there’s the matchup: The Lions have allowed the third-most FanDuel points to opposing backfields with 25.8 per game. Against the Lions in Week 6, Williams had a season-high 21.6 FanDuel points on 14-104-0 rushing and 4-32-1 receiving.
Because Williams plays behind teammate Aaron Jones, it’s impossible to predict when he’ll go off, but in his 38 games since becoming a regular contributor in Week 10 of the 2017 season, Williams has been a fantasy RB1 six times, good for a hit rate of 15.8%.
It’s not a pleasing thought to roster Williams, but his odds of having a big game will likely be higher than his ownership rate.
With a 12-3 record, the Packers are in the running for the No. 1 seed in the NFC, so they will play their starters as they normally would.
And the line has moved toward the Packers: It opened at -10 — even at -9.5 in some places, and that’s where I bet it — and it has jumped up to -12.5. And it makes sense for bettors to back the Packers.
Opponents are 5-1-1 ATS (54.2% ROI) since the Lions lost quarterback Matthew Stafford (back, IR), and quarterback Aaron Rodgers has historically crushed for the Packers in divisional games, going 41-24 ATS (23.2% ROI).
As long as Williams seems healthy entering the game, he’ll be a reasonable low-owned tournament option offering cheap exposure to a team that could go off.
Williams is the No. 1 back in the CSURAM88 Model for FanDuel.
Sony Michel: New England Patriots (-15.5) vs. Miami Dolphins, 45 O/U
Anytime you can spend a first-round pick on a middling running back instead of a franchise quarterback, you pretty much have to, right?
Michel has been magnificently pedestrian this year with his 3.7 yards per carry and 4.7 yards per target. In his usage and skill set, he’s basically small LeGarrette Blount.
Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New England Patriots running back Sony Michel (26).
Michel is an incredibly splits-driven back. If he doesn’t score a touchdown or if he gets fewer than 15 carries, he offers little.
- Touchdown (12 games): 21.0 DraftKings points, 20.2 carries, 1.1 targets, 0.7 receptions, 98.8 yards, 1.5 touchdowns
- No touchdown (19 games): 6.2 DraftKings points, 14.1 carries, 1.1 targets, 0.6 receptions, 56.5 yards, zero touchdowns
- 15-plus carries (20 games): 15.9 DraftKings points, 20.3 carries, 1.0 targets, 0.7 receptions, 92.7 yards, 0.85 touchdowns
- 14 or fewer carries (11 games): 4.8 DraftKings points, 9.5 carries, 1.3 targets, 0.6 receptions, 36.7 yards, 0.09 touchdowns
But there’s reason to be optimistic about Michel this weekend: The Patriots have a slate-high implied total of 30.5 points, they’re massive home favorites and they’re playing the Dolphins.
The Pats could score a lot of points, Michel could have a beneficially run-heavy game script and the Dolphins are No. 29 in rush defense DVOA and No. 32 in pass defense DVOA against running backs. Michel has a good chance to find the end zone, get lots of opportunities and be efficient with his touches.
Against the Dolphins in Week 2, Michel had a 21-83-1 rushing performance in a 43-0 win.
Lots of players contribute to the vastness of the Dolphins’ back-centric defensive ineptitude, but linebackers Jerome Baker and Sam Eguavoen seem especially to blame, as evidenced by their poor PFF grades.
- Jerome Baker: 48.7 overall grade, 40.4 run defense, 61.2 coverage
- Sam Eguavoen: 50.3 overall grade, 41.5 run defense, 59.6 coverage
Against such defenders, Michel could certainly go off.
Michel is the No. 1 back in the Bales, CSURAM88, Koerner, Raybon and Freedman Models for DraftKings, where he has a position-high +3.14 Projected Plus/Minus.
Upside Running Backs for Guaranteed Prize Pools
Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers ($10,000 DK, $11,000 FD): McCaffrey is the No. 1 back in our Week 17 fantasy football rankings and easily the No. 1 fantasy back this season with 31.5 DraftKings and 26.3 FanDuel points per game. McCaffrey leads all running backs in our Models with his median and ceiling projections.
Saquon Barkley, New York Giants ($8,700 DK, $9,300 FD): Right now Saquon is hotter than Eddie Murphy in 1984. Over the past two weeks he’s averaged 40.1 DraftKings points, 211 yards and two touchdowns on 23 carries, 4.5 targets and four receptions per game.
Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers ($8,200 DK, $8,000 FD): In eight games this year, Jones has been a fantasy RB1 on FanDuel, where he has strong marks with a 98% Bargain Rating and eight Pro Trends. The Lions are No. 26 in PFF run defense grade.
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans ($8,100 DK, $8,800 FD): Despite missing Week 16, Henry (hamstring) is tentatively expected to play this weekend. The Texans have limited incentive to try to win, but they are expected to play their starters per usual, so the matchup isn’t as cushy as it could be. Still, since becoming a locked-in lead back in Week 14 last season, Henry’s put up 118.9 yards and 1.22 touchdowns from scrimmage per game. Since quarterback Ryan Tannehill became the starter in Week 7, the over is 8-1 (75.4% ROI).
Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns ($7,500 DK, $7,900 FD): Even with the return of Kareem Hunt, Chubb has averaged 109.4 yards on 18.7 carries and 2.1 targets per game over the past seven weeks. The Bengals are No. 27 in rush defense DVOA and No. 30 in pass defense DVOA against running backs.
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals ($7,200 DK, $7,300 FD): Even with his disappointing 73-yard performance last week against the Dolphins, Mixon has come on since the Week 9 bye, averaging 17.7 DraftKings points and 116.9 yards on 21.6 and 2.7 targets per game. Mixon had 186 yards and a touchdown against the Browns in Week 14.
Kenyan Drake, Arizona Cardinals ($7,100 DK, $7,300 FD): Locked in as the lead back, Drake has 15.9 carries and 4.4 targets per game since joining the team in Week 9, and over the past two weeks he’s balled out with 39.5 DraftKings points on 23 carries and 2.5 targets per game. The Rams are reportedly thinking about resting some of their players in Week 17, so the matchup might be easier than usual.
Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Arizona Cardinals running back Kenyan Drake (41).
Marlon Mack, Oakland Raiders ($6,900 DK, $7,300 FD): Mack is coming off a 101-yard, one-touchdown performance, and against the Jags in Week 11, he had 109 yards and a touchdown in an injury-shortened game. The Jaguars have allowed the second-most FanDuel points per game to opposing backfields with 27.4, and they are No. 31 in rush defense DVOA and No. 27 in pass defense DVOA against running backs.
Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles ($6,800 DK, $7,400 FD): The Eagles will earn the NFC East title with a win, so all of their starters should play as usual. Teammate Jordan Howard (shoulder) is expected to return for Week 17, but given how good Sanders has been since the Week 11 bye — 105.8 yards on 15.7 carries and 5.2 targets per game — he’s unlikely to see a massive reduction in workload.
Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers ($6,200 DK, $6,800 FD): Danny Woodhead 2.0 is No. 1 at the position with 68.9 air yards and yards after the catch combined per game (per AirYards.com), and even in his 11 games with lead back Melvin Gordon, Ekeler has averaged 88.3 yards and 0.45 touchdowns. Ekeler was the No. 2 fantasy back in Week 11 against the Chiefs with 24.2 DraftKings points.
Phillip Lindsay, Denver Broncos ($6,100 DK, $6,600 FD): Lindsay has averaged 14.7 carries and 2.5 targets per game since the Week 10 bye and could benefit from a run-heavy game script as a home favorite. He’s coming off a 118-yard, one touchdown performance, and the Raiders are No. 24 in rush defense DVOA and No. 31 in pass defense DVOA against running backs.
Melvin Gordon, Los Angeles Chargers ($6,000 DK, $7,200 FD): MG3 has averaged 91 yards and 0.86 touchdowns per game since the beginning of November with 14-plus opportunities every week. The Chiefs have allowed the fifth-most DraftKings points to opposing backfields with 25.8 per game.
Le’Veon Bell, New York Jets ($5,800 DK, $7,100 FD): #RevengeGame. Since his 2014 breakout, Bell is No. 1 among all backs with 25.7 opportunities per game. The Bills are locked into the No. 5 seed in the AFC and so may rest many of their starters. Bell had a season-high 23.2 DraftKings points against the Bills in Week 1 with 17 carries and nine targets.
Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New York Jets running back Le’Veon Bell (26).
Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns ($5,200 DK, $6,100 FD): In his seven games with the Browns, Hunt has averaged 61.1 yards on 5.7 carries and 5.7 targets per game. In his 35 career games, Hunt has put up 18.8 DraftKings points game (including playoffs). The Bengals have allowed the sixth-most DraftKings points to opposing backfields with 27.8 per game.
Ronald Jones, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($4,900 DK, $6,200 FD): Since Week 9, Jones has played as the starter for the Bucs, and although he’s been inconsistent, he’s averaged a manageable 11.9 DraftKings points on 10.9 and 3.6 targets per game. In that span, he’s had three fantasy RB1 performances, one of which came against the Falcons in Week 12.
Adrian Peterson, Washington Redskins ($4,900 DK, $6,300 FD): The future Hall-of-Famer is just 38 yards away from his 10th 1,000-yard season, and he’s averaged 15.1 DraftKings points since teammate Derrius Guice (knee, IR) exited Week 14 early with an injury. In his seven mostly Guice-less starts since interim HC Bill Callahan took over in Week 6, Peterson has averaged 96 yards on 19.4 opportunities per game.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
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Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
Pictured above: New England Patriots running back Sony Michel (26)
Photo credit: Stew Milne-USA TODAY Sports
