Let’s do this.
As you read the MLB Breakdown, make sure to pull up our new Vegas Dashboard for reference.
Pitchers
Dallas Keuchel, HOU
An MLB offense being compared to the Braves is like an NFL draft prospect finishing a drill at the combine and then being compared to Trent Richardson. It’s not a good thing. The Braves are one of only two teams with an Isolated Power (ISO) less than .100 (.052) versus left-handed pitching. The other? The team that Keuchel is facing: The Twins.
Keuchel has recently experienced a drop in velocity of 1.6 miles per hour, and as a result teams have a batted-ball distance differential of 38 feet. That’s not good — but he’s a left-handed pitcher who is facing the Twins and their bottom-four strikeout rate. Given the overall landscape of tonight’s options at his position, Fake Dan Bilzerian certainly warrants consideration in cash and tournaments alike.
Jon Gray, COL
Like Andy Dufresne escaped from the hell that is Shawshank State Penitentiary, Gray is free from Coors Field. He can breathe a deep sigh of relief, for today will be his first pitching appearance of the season not made at Coors. And against the Padres, who have a 26 percent strikeout rate vs. right-handed pitching, Gray should immediately reap the rewards, as his 9.95 SO/9 are second-highest among pitchers tonight.
Gray does have a bottom-three batted-ball distance of 238 feet, but his fly-ball percentage of under 22 percent (though resulting in a Plus/Minus of -3.82 at Coors Field) yield a Plus/Minus of +1.46 at Petco. His 98 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel makes him worthy of a dart throw, at a minimum.
(Gray is my own personal entry for our Plays of the Day.)
Pitchers to Exploit
Jose Berrios, MIN
Berrios is uber-talented, but as it pertains to tonight (and maybe even this early portion of his career), he’s in over his head. For instance, his batted-ball distance allowed of only 170 feet doesn’t seem nearly as impressive as it might if he weren’t throwing only 42 percent of his pitches for strikes. And, while the Astros have a bottom-two strikeout rate vs. RHP, they also also have a top-seven base-on-balls percentage. Expect numerous Astros to reach base and be driven in.
Adam Wainwright, STL
I tend to listen when Vegas implies a particular standout performance, but they can take Wainwright’s projected 3.2 runs allowed and shove them. He doesn’t strike anyone out with a slate-low 4.76 SO/9. The batters he faces who don’t hit the ball tend to walk, as evidenced by his 1.65 WHIP. And Wainwright has yet to allow fewer than three earned runs in any start.
And you know what else? The Phillies aren’t that bad! I’m not suggesting that you go out and stack them in cash games, but in tournaments they are an almost immaculate contrarian stack (assuming that most DFS players will blindly take Wainwright’s -177 moneyline at face value).
Jered Weaver, LAA
No pitcher tonight has allowed a further batted-ball distance than Weaver. His fly-ball percentage is also 14 percentage points higher than any other pitcher’s. If you’ve seen what the Brewers have been rolling out as of late, it’s a safe assumption that no one will stack them — but, against Weaver, they should. That makes their 3-4-5 of Ryan Braun-Jonathan Lucroy-Chris Carter an under-the-radar stack with Upside.
C
Evan Gattis, HOU
Jason Castro (batting ninth for Houston) would typically offer a unique way to stack Houston, but only two other catchers are batting the ball a shorter distance than he is at this time. His teammate Gattis is an intriguing alternative, given that his slugging percentage is .081 higher than Castro’s. Gattis is eligible as a catcher on FanDuel, where he is only $400 more expensive. He’s a terrific value, especially at, arguably, the barest position tonight.
1B
Matt Adams, STL
As is always the case with a Mike Matheny lineup, it’s possible that Adams doesn’t play. But as of now he’s the only player in the entire league averaging a batted-ball distance of 300 feet over the last two weeks. With the wind blowing ever-so-slightly out to right field, Adams is a lock for any format — if he’s in the lineup.
Edwin Encarnacion, TOR
Encarnacion is expected to bat cleanup for a Toronto team implied to score the most runs (4.9) tonight. He’s almost certain to be the highest-rostered first basemen, but his .582 slugging percentage warrants that he be in lineups.
2B
Tommy La Stella, CHC
La Stella has started for Jorge Soler in two of Chicago’s last three games. It’s plausible that he stays on the bench tonight, but of all second basemen has a top-three slugging percentage (.500) and batted-ball distance (247 feet) vs. RHP. If La Stella starts, his $2,600 salary at DraftKings is all too good to pass on.
Chris Coghlan, OAK
Coghlan is two-for-23 over his last seven games and, as Tobias Beecher once so eloquently put it, “Thank God I’m crazy because I don’t give a shit.” I mean, I care because others tend to care, but for me it’s more about caring about the process whereas others care about the results. I guess I also cared enough to elaborate.
Despite his horrid production, Coghlan still has top-10 batted-ball distance and fly-ball percentage. In other words, his $2,300 salary at FanDuel is absurd. Now if we could just get him back to that two-hole . . .
3B
Mike Moustakas, KC
Gio Gonzalez has a solid batted-ball distance allowed over his last two starts, but Moustakas’ has a top-five slugging percentage (.503) vs. LHP. With an ISO of .223, he’s a stellar tournament option, given the bevy of powerhouses available at his position.
Josh Donaldson, TOR
I’m really hoping that his well-noted negative differentials vs. RHP will keep Donaldson low-rostered tonight. (Spoiler Alert: It won’t.) Either way, he’s arguably the strongest cash option at his position. He has a $4,500 salary despite having 11 Pro Trends? Go home, DraftKings. You’re drunk.
SS
Troy Tulowitzki, TOR
Even though I highlighted Tulo in yesterday’s breakdown, I’m somewhat disappointed with his home run last night, because now he’s sure to be a high-rostered player. Still, he has the best batted-ball distance among shortstops over the last two weeks. He deserves to be in lots of lineups.
OF
Odubel Herrera, PHI
With a 21.5 percent base-on-balls rate this season, the Greek God of Walksis expected to lead off against Wainwright’s noted WHIP. With a batted-ball distance that quietly sits just outside the top 10 among outfielders, Herrera is an option even for cash games.
Michael Conforto, NYM
(Checks to make sure that the Mets are facing a righty . . .)
We’re in the clear! Conforto costs $4,300 at FanDuel, but he has a very cheap $3,800 salary at DraftKings. And he doesn’t just have the highest ISO Difference (.284) at his position tonight. His recent production also stands out:
He’s a fantastic option for this slate.
Colby Rasmus, HOU
While Preston Tucker — .129/.201 wOBA and ISO Differentials — is the play at FanDuel because of his minimum salary, Rasmus is worth rostering at DraftKings. Despite not hitting a home run in six straight games, Rasmus still has a top-four fly-ball percentage among outfielders. If anything, he’s due.
Weather Watch
Rain is expected to cease by noon for Braves-Mets, so feel free to approach this entire slate without any worries of inclement weather.
Good luck!
