Matthew Freedman publishes comprehensive positional breakdowns for the main NFL DFS slate throughout each week.
We’ll highlight one of the top players from each position (according to our Models) and his analysis of their outlooks below, but be sure to check out the full versions of each breakdown for the best cash-game and GPP plays for Week 16.
QB Breakdown
Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
Wilson was incredibly hot to start the season, playing like a true MVP candidate for the first six weeks of the season with a Lamar-esque 25.9 FanDuel points per game, but over the past two months, he’s regressed.
Since Week 7, Wilson has been the No. 14 fantasy quarterback with an average of 18.4 FanDuel points per game.
That’s not awful, but at this point, no one is arguing that Wilson should be the NFL MVP.
But this week there’s a lot to like about Wilson.
>> Read the full QB breakdown here
RB Breakdown
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
Kamara has scored in one game this season. One. That’s some Patrick Laird-level s–t right there.
It’s probably too kind to say that Kamara has had an up-and-down campaign. It’s been mostly down. Despite consistently having one of the highest backfield salaries in each slate, he’s just the No. 15 fantasy running back in points per game.
Given how expensive he typically is, Kamara has significantly underperformed his salary-based expectations. Last year, he was a fantasy RB1 in 10-of-15 games. This year, he’s hit that threshold in just four of eight games (per RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).
His production is way down, and it’s possible he returned too soon from the ankle injury that caused him to miss Weeks 7-8. But there are significant reasons to like Kamara this week.
>> Read the full RB breakdown here
WR Breakdown
Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers
There’s a non-zero chance that Mike Williams is better than Keenan Allen.
Let’s ignore what Williams did in 2017, when he lost much of his rookie campaign to a back injury. Let’s look only at what he’s done in 2018-19 and compare that to Allen over the same time (per RotoViz Screener).
- Williams (31 games): 0.54 receiving success rate, 10.3 yards per target, 7.4% touchdown rate
- Allen (31 games): 0.59 receiving success rate, 8.4 yards per target, 4.3% touchdown rate
Allen has the higher success rate, and that’s indicative of his chain-moving role within the offense, but Williams is still way more efficient at turning his targets into yards and touchdowns.
>> Read the full WR breakdown here
TE Breakdown
Austin Hooper, Atlanta Falcons
Since returning from injury in Week 14, Hooper has averaged just 26 scoreless yards per game. Two of these weeks are clearly not like the others.
But Hooper has still had six targets in each of the past two games, and he seems likely to get regular usage since No. 2 wide receiver Calvin Ridley (abdomen, IR) is out.
For the year, Hooper is the No. 3 fantasy tight end with 15.6 DraftKings points per game, and he’s No. 8 with 75 air yards and yards after the catch per game.
Priced as the No. 7 tight end on DraftKings at $4,400, Hooper is simply way too cheap.
>> Read the full TE breakdown here
