Adam Levitan projects ownership for every NFL DFS player each week in the FantasyLabs Player Models. Gauging ownership is important in tournaments so you can try to gain leverage on the field. You don’t need a team of 1%-owned players to win a tournament, but it’s also unlikely you’ll win a tournament with an abundance of highly-owned players.
The goal of this article is to give a brief rundown of the players we project to be the highest owned heading into the week, along with how they can affect roster construction. And just to get you thinking about the slate and roster construction in general.
Be sure to check the ownership projections throughout the week, as breaking news can cause these to fluctuate.
Note: Ownership percentages as of Saturday morning.
Quarterbacks
On both DraftKings and FanDuel, Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson and Matt Ryan are projected to see the most ownership among quarterbacks. Although, most of the ownership will be focused on Jackson and Wilson. These projections make sense as each of those quarterbacks are on teams that boast the three highest implied team totals on the slate.
I like all three quarterbacks but I’ll likely be building my single-entry GPP teams around Wilson and his supporting cast because I think that game has the best chance to turn into a high-scoring game.
If looking for leverage, my favorite quarterback in tournaments is Drew Brees, which I dive into more in my ceiling article. Rostering Dak Prescott could carry some risk with his AC joint sprain, but that will probably depress his ownership in tourneys, making him another potential leverage play against a vulnerable secondary. If you’re more risk-averse, targeting Dak makes a lot of sense. It shouldn’t take much to overweight yourself relative to the field with his 5-8% ownership projection.
Running Backs
With Josh Jacobs (shoulder) ruled out early in the week, DeAndre Washington is set up to be the most-owned player on the entire slate with a 41-50% ownership projection on both sites. On a slate without much value, Washington is hard to pass up, even in tournaments. His low salary and solid projection makes him one of the best values on the slate. You can still differentiate your lineup elsewhere to be contrarian.
On FanDuel, Chris Carson is next in line at 26-30%, but just 13-16% on DraftKings. This checks out considering he’s a better price-sensitive play on FanDuel with his 98% Bargain Rating. As 10-point home favorites with a 30.5 implied team total, this game should set up well for Carson.
On DraftKings, Joe Mixon is next with his 26-30% projected ownership. He’s affordable on both sites, but he’s $1,900 cheaper than Carson on DraftKings but just $400 cheaper than him on FanDuel. The Bengals have given up on their season and have just been running him with elite usage the last few weeks, giving him 28 and 26 touches over the last two weeks.
One of my favorite leverage plays is Austin Ekeler, who has a top-two Leverage Plus/Minus on both sites. His 1.42 fantasy points per touch is incredibly efficient and among the best marks in the league. On a 0.5 PPR site like FanDuel, Mark Ingram has a top-five Leverage Plus/Minus. Overall, it’s a good spot since the Ravens are double-digit favorites with an implied team total of almost 30.
It’s impossible to name every leverage play I’m keen on, but I highly recommend utilizing our Leverage Plus/Minus trends in our player models to find differentiators.
Wide Receivers
Julio Jones and Michael Thomas lead the way with 31-40% ownership projections on both sites and rightfully so. Thomas has been the most bankable source of fantasy production this season along with Christian McCaffrey and Lamar Jackson. A contrarian build in tournaments could consist of fading these players. Fading Thomas is always a scary proposition, but if you’re in mass-multi-entering, even 25% exposure would still put you underweight relative to the field. He’ll likely be a priority for most cash game players.
Ownership after those two receivers looks spread out, except on FanDuel where DeVante Parker has a 21-25% projection, followed by A.J. Brown at 17-20%.
With Will Grier starting for Carolina, that adds some uncertainty into their offense, but it’s not like Kyle Allen was a major difference-maker. D.J. Moore has a top-four Leverage Plus/Minus on both sites, although he’s a better value on FanDuel with his 98% Bargain Rating. His volume could be further secured if Curtis Samuel (knee) were to miss this game. Samuel was downgraded to a limited in practice on Thursday and then downgraded again on Friday, completely missing practice.
If you’re looking for a punt leverage play, Russell Gage should see nearly no ownership with Julio projected for so high. He saw six targets last week and played 76% of snaps with Calvin Ridley out and ran 41 pass routes.
Tight Ends
Zach Ertz and Austin Hooper are projected to be the two highest owned tight ends, depending on the site. Hooper leads DraftKings at 26-30%, while Ertz has top honors on FanDuel at 21-25%. Ertz is much easier to fit into roster builds on FanDuel. Despite the high ownership, I’ll likely be building around him in my single-entry tournaments. His volume and spot this week are hard to pass up at such a volatile position.
I don’t mind eating good chalk.
Darren Waller and Jacob Hollister appear to be the tight ends next in line for ownership. Hunter Renfrow (ribs) will be active for this game which has me tempering my expectations for Waller, along with the Chargers have safety Derwin James back in their lineup over the last few weeks. Hollister has more paths to failure than the other tight ends mentioned above. The Seahawks offense can be tough to project sometimes since they don’t have a concentrated offense. Russ can spread it around or they can just hammer Carson 30 times if they want to.
Ertz’s and Hooper’s spots are great and the prices are reasonable so I don’t plan on getting too wild at tight end this week.
Defense
The Redskins project as the highest owned defense for both DraftKings and FanDuel. They’re one of the easier defenses to fit into cash builds. Paying up for defenses in tournaments seems to be the easiest way to be contrarian, although I hate sacrificing skill positions for the most volatile roster spot.
The Broncos, Ravens and Steelers are the defenses I’d like to if you have the extra salary.
Pictured above: Austin Ekeler
Photo Credit: USA Today Sports
