In MLB Recent Form Report, I apply filters listed under the “Adv Stats – Recent” heading of our MLB Trends tool. I am looking for players whose recent play has not shown up in their stats or for justification on players who have been exceeding or falling short of expectations. MLB Recent Form Report is released on Monday morning each week.
Sitting on a 2-3 record along with a 4.41 ERA in 2016, Dallas Keuchel’s season has not gone as planned to this point. And while some could point to his .330 BABIP and 2.99 FIP on the season as evidence he has simply been unlucky to this point, I have deeper concerns.
Scrolling over to the “Adv Stats – 15” area in today’s MLB Models, we can see that Keuchel’s average velocity is down 1.6 mph over the past two weeks. Even this has not been a death sentence for elite ground ball pitchers such as Keuchel. Though the sample size is admittedly small, we can see that when elite ground ball pitchers have lost 1.5 mph or more from their recent velocity, they have posted a Plus/Minus of +0.71 (against a +0.17 baseline Plus/Minus). These types of pitchers don’t need to blow batters away with high 90s stuff — they just need to be able to induce weak contact, and that is still possible at lower velocities.
What is concerning to me is that Keuchel is literally a different pitcher so far in 2016. During his breakout 2014 and 2015 campaigns, he primarily relied on his two-seam fastball, while mixing in a slider and a four-seamer. In 2016, he has been throwing his two-seamer much less frequently and it has been less effective. Per FanGraphs, its movement score is down, it is staying in the zone much more often (58 percent vs 44 percent last year) and it is leading to ground balls only 48 percent of the time this year versus an elite 76-percent clip last season.
Add it all up, and the difference is a .455 average allowed to opposing batters on the two-seamer this year versus a .221 average allowed last season. The pitch is broken and Keuchel probably knows it, which is why he is throwing it less often. Until Keuchel starts throwing the two-seamer like he did in 2015, he will likely continue to struggle.
Gio Gonzalez’s two-seam fastball is trending in the opposite direction. In 2015, the two-seamer was Gonzalez’s most frequently thrown pitch, despite a .352 batting average allowed on that pitch and a miniscule 8.2 percent K rate. This season, Gio is allowing a .235 batting average on the pitch. Also note that in 2015, Gonzalez posted a .341 BABIP against a .243 score so far in 2016. Some of that is luck and will normalize, but also consider that the Nationals’ defense, which ranked as a bottom-10 unit in 2015, ranks within the top 10 this year. If you’re a ground ball pitcher, you need the defense behind you to make plays — this year, the Nats are making more plays. That’s why his loss of 2 mph in recent velocity hasn’t been disastrous. In fact, he has lowered his average batted-ball distance allowed over the past 15 days from 197 feet to 183 feet.
Now, let’s switch gears and look at bats. A year ago, I don’t think many DFS players would have thought it possible for Troy Tulowitzki to become an overlooked option at shortstop. But with Trevor Story, Carlos Correa, and Corey Seager all playing at a high level, that’s exactly what has happened. While Tulo has only batted .169 on the year, there is reason for optimism. Most obviously, his .189 BABIP is .130 points lower than his career .319 score. Additionally, his 92-mph exit velocity and 247 ft. average batted-ball distance over the past 15 days means that he has been making hard contact. His recent fly-ball rate is 61 percent – in other words, he is hitting deep fly balls that have not been leading to hits. It’s a good thing then that Toronto is coming home to begin a series with the Rangers. Tulo will be able to trade Tropicana’s Park Factor of 4 for right-handed bats with a Park Factor of 63 at Rogers Centre.
I put together a trend that matched Tulo’s recent profile and found that players generally add over a half-point per game without considering any additional factors. Tulo seems like a good candidate to turn things around with a little home-cooking.
On the other hand, George Springer does not look as promising. With a 57 percent ground-ball rate over the past 15 days against a 47 percent long-term average, Springer has been beating the ball into the ground. As a result, he has also lost around 30 feet in average distance recently. Players matching Springer’s recent profile have lost around 0.4 fantasy points per game using DraftKings scoring.
Thanks for reading about the four players whose recent advanced stats I found to be most interesting. As always though, this article only scratches the surface and there is much more you can discover for yourself. Head on over to the “Adv Stats – Recent” portion of our MLB Trends tool and see what jumps out to you!
