The Week 16 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Dec. 22, at 1 p.m. ET. In this piece, I highlight the tight ends who stand out in our large suite of analytical DFS Tools, most specifically our industry-leading FantasyLabs Models.
Top Tight Ends in the FantasyLabs Models
There are three tight ends atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.
- Darren Waller: $6,100 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel
- Austin Hooper: $4,400 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
- Dallas Goedert: $4,100 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel
Odds as of Thursday evening and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
Darren Waller: Oakland Raiders (+7) at Los Angeles Chargers, 45 Over/Under
Let’s start with the bad: This is a tough matchup for Waller. All-Pro strong safety Derwin James returned from injury in Week 13, and in his three games back, he’s been his usual lockdown self, allowing just four yards on four targets.
Last year as a rookie, James had a top-three safety coverage grade in a full season of action (per Pro Football Focus), and the Chargers were No. 1 in pass defense DVOA against tight ends (per Football Outsiders).
This will almost certainly be the hardest matchup of Waller’s season.
On top of that, slot receiver Hunter Renfrow (ribs) is tentatively expected to play after missing Weeks 13-15. With Renfrow back, Waller is likely to get fewer middle-of-the-field targets.
And from a betting perspective, I like the Chargers-Raiders under. Since they moved to Los Angeles in 2017 and started playing at the small StubHub Center — now Dignity Health Sports Park — the Chargers have been one of the league’s most under-friendly home teams with a 14-7 record (per our Bet Labs database).
The Raiders could certainly fail to put up points, and that would probably impact Waller’s fantasy production.
But there’s still a lot to like about Waller.
For the year, Waller is No. 4 with 87.9 air yards and yards after the catch combined per game (per AirYards.com) and No. 5 with 11.2 FanDuel points per game. He’s provided good value with his +3.38 Plus/Minus, and he leads the position with four 100-yard games.
In his first season as a full-time tight end, Waller is having a great campaign. He leads the team with 103 targets, 80 receptions, 1,001 yards receiving and 1,231 air yards and yards after the catch. The passing offense flows through him.
At a position marked by inconsistency, Waller is yet to score fewer than 5.0 FanDuel points in any game this year (per RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).
That number might not seem all that high as a floor, but Travis Kelce is the only other tight to clear that mark in every game played.
Despite the matchup, I still expect Waller to get his targets. No. 1 wide receiver Tyrell Williams should see shadow coverage from shutdown cornerback Casey Hayward Jr., so it’s not as if the Raiders are going to reallocate lots of Waller’s targets to Williams. And starting running back Josh Jacobs (shoulder) is out, so the Raiders probably won’t be incentivized to emphasize the running game at Waller’s expense.
As significant road underdogs, the Raiders seem likely to have a pass-heavy game script, and Waller is on the positive side of his reverse splits (per our FantasyLabs Trends Tool).
- Away (six games): 14.1 FanDuel points, +6.10 Plus/Minus
- Home (seven games): 9.4 FanDuel points, +1.86 Plus/Minus
- Underdog (10 games): 11.9 FanDuel points, +4.27 Plus/Minus
- Favorite (four games): 9.5 FanDuel points, +1.14 Plus/Minus
In his five games as a road dog, Waller has averaged 15.2 FanDuel points per game with a +7.75 Plus/Minus.
Matchup aside, this is a smash spot for Waller, who is the No. 1 tight end in the Bales, Levitan and Freedman Models for FanDuel, where he has position-high marks with nine Pro Trends and a +3.16 Projected Plus/Minus.
Austin Hooper: Atlanta Falcons (-7) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, 46.5 O/U
Since returning from injury in Week 14, Hooper has averaged just 26 scoreless yards per game. Two of these weeks are clearly not like the others.
But Hooper has still had six targets in each of the past two games, and he seems likely to get regular usage since No. 2 wide receiver Calvin Ridley (abdomen, IR) is out.
For the year, Hooper is the No. 3 fantasy tight end with 15.6 DraftKings points per game, and he’s No. 8 with 75 air yards and yards after the catch per game.
Priced as the No. 7 tight end on DraftKings at $4,400, Hooper is simply way too cheap, especially on a slate without high-scoring tight ends Travis Kelce (Sunday Night Football), George Kittle (Saturday Night Football) and Evan Engram (foot, IR).
And his matchup is great. Despite their formerly fearsome reputation, the Jags are No. 30 in PFF coverage grade, and they are specifically No. 31 in pass defense DVOA against tight ends. No. 1 wide receiver Julio Jones is likely to be shadowed by cornerback A.J. Bouye, who’s no longer an elite cover man, but he still might be good enough to motivate quarterback Matt Ryan to funnel a few of Julio’s would-be targets to Hooper.
The four tight ends most comparable to Hooper in pricing, athleticism and role to face the Jags — Travis Kelce, Delanie Walker, Hunter Henry and Darren Waller — have averaged 15.8 DraftKings points per game against them.
An option for cash games and guaranteed prize pools alike, Hooper is the No. 1 tight end in the Bales, CSURAM88, Levitan, Koerner, Raybon and SportsGeek Models for DraftKings, where he has position-high marks with eight Pro Trends and a +3.47 Projected Plus/Minus.
Hooper is also the top option in the CSURAM88, Koerner, Raybon and SportsGeek Models for FanDuel.
Dallas Goedert: Philadelphia Eagles (+1) vs. Dallas Cowboys, 46 O/U
No. 1 wide receiver Alshon Jeffery (foot, IR) is out for the year, and No. 2 wide receiver Nelson Agholor (knee) missed Weeks 14-15 and didn’t practice on Wednesday and Thursday. He seems questionable at best to play this weekend.
As a result, the Eagles are likely to use a two-tight end set as their base formation, so Goedert should get a lot of playing time.
A top-tier prospect who probably should have been a first-round pick, Goedert is coming into his own in his second season. Since Week 4 — when he kicked off his streak of 11 straight games with a snap rate of at least 55% — Goedert has averaged 9.9 DraftKings points on 5.5 targets per game with seven fantasy TE1 finishes.
And since the Week 11 bye, Goedert has averaged 10.4 DraftKings points on 6.6 targets per game. As the season has progressed, he’s become a more important part of the offense, and he’s been incredibly steady as a contributor.
In Week 7 against the Cowboys, Goedert had his best game of the season with a 4-69-1 receiving line, and he could have a similar performance this week. The Cowboys are No. 29 in pass defense DVOA against tight ends, and they have allowed the fifth-most DraftKings points to the position with 14.5 per game.
From a betting perspective, I like the under for this game. If the Cowboys win, they will be the NFC East champions. If the Eagles win, they will take the division as long as they dispense with the 3-11 Giants in Week 17.
Given what’s at stake, I expect both teams to slow the game down, look to keep the score close and play with more intention.
And that makes sense: Whenever divisional opponents face off in the final month of the season, we typically see lower-scoring games. The teams are familiar with each other, the weather is colder and they tend to be a little more conservative on offense.
In the Bet Labs database, the December divisional under is an A-graded 288-217-12 (10.9% ROI).
Plus, quarterback Dak Prescott has trended toward the under whenever the Cowboys have traveled. Outside of the domed AT&T Stadium, the Dak under is 19-12 (17.8% ROI).
But even in a game without a lot of points, I still like Goedert: His matchup is too good and his usage is too consistent for me to ignore.
Goedert is the No. 1 tight end in the Freedman Model for DraftKings.
Upside Tight Ends for Guaranteed Prize Pools
Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles ($6,000 DK, $6,700 FD): For the main slate, Ertz is the top tight end in our Week 16 fantasy football rankings. Wide receivers Alshon Jeffery (foot, IR) and Nelson Agholor (knee) are injured, and in the Agholor-less and mostly Alshon-less Weeks 12 and 14-15, Ertz averaged 24.8 DraftKings points on 12.3 targets per game. Ertz leads all tight ends in our Models with his ceiling and floor projections.
Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens ($5,900 DK, $6,500 FD): Andrews is No. 5 among tight ends with 86.8 air yards and yards after the catch per game, and he trails only Austin Hooper with his six Pro Trends on DraftKings. The Browns are without starting strong safety Morgan Burnett (Achilles, IR). Andrews is No. 1 at the position with 0.33 targets per route and No. 2 with 2.81 yards per route run (per PFF).
Jared Cook, New Orleans Saints ($5,000 DK, $6,600 FD): Cook was dreadful for the first month of the season, and he missed Weeks 7-8 to injury, but since Week 5, Cook has averaged 14.4 DraftKings points per game and been a fantasy TE1 in every game played. The Titans are No. 22 in pass defense DVOA.
Hunter Henry, Los Angeles Chargers ($4,700 DK, $6,100 FD): With just 78 yards on nine targets over the past three weeks, Henry is in something of a slump, but is still No. 6 at the position with 83.3 air yards and yards after the catch per game. The Raiders have allowed the third-most FanDuel points to the position with 11.8 per game.
Jacob Hollister, Seattle Seahawks ($4,200 DK, $5,700 FD): Since taking in Week 7 over for injured starter Will Dissly (Achilles, IR), Hollister has averaged a respectable 9.5 DraftKings points on 5.6 targets per game with two high-end fantasy TE1 performances. He’s in a great spot as a “Flow Chart” home favorite against the Cardinals, who have allowed a league-high 20.2 DraftKings points, 998 yards and 15 touchdowns to tight ends and are No. 32 in pass defense DVOA against the position. The Seahawks have a slate-high 30.5-point implied Vegas total.
Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers ($3,900 DK, $4,900 FD): With third-string rookie quarterback Will Grier making his first career start, it’s hard to know what to expect from the Panthers offense, but Olsen (concussion) is slated to return to action after exiting Week 13 early with an injury. In his 11 full games, he’s averaged 6.2 targets and had four fantasy TE1 performances. The Colts are No. 24 in pass defense DVOA against tight ends.
Jonnu Smith, Tennessee Titans ($3,800 DK, $5,400 FD): Since starter Delanie Walker (ankle, IR) suffered a season-ending injury in Week 7, Smith has produced three fantasy TE1 games and flashed legitimate playmaking ability. Last week he turned five targets into 60 yards and one carry into 57 yards. He hasn’t been rostered above 2.0% in any game over the past month, and that’s too low for a player with his talent and playing time.
Noah Fant, Denver Broncos ($3,700 DK, $5,900 FD): For the past few weeks Fant has played through various injuries, but he’s expected to suit up this weekend. In his seven games since the team traded wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders, Fant has averaged 5.4 targets, put up two 100-yard performances and been no worse than a fantasy TE2 in every game but one. The Lions are No. 26 in pass defense DVOA against tight ends and have allowed a league-high 488 air yards and yards after the catch per game to opposing teams. Fant has an elite 96% Bargain Rating on DraftKings.
Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins ($3,600 DK, $5,300 FD): In his six games without wide receiver Preston Williams (knee, IR), Gesicki has averaged 6.5 targets per game and racked up two fantasy TE1 showings. He will likely have a sub-5% ownership rate.
Kaden Smith, New York Giants ($3,200 DK, $5,100 FD): Starter Evan Engram (foot, IR) and backup Rhett Ellison (concussion) is uncertain, so Smith might once again play with the first-team offense. In his four games filling in for Engram and Ellison, Smith has averaged 8.8 DraftKings points on 5.5 targets per game with two fantasy TE1 performances.
Rhett Ellison, New York Giants ($3,300 DK, $5,000 FD): Ellison (concussion) has been out for the past month, but he practiced fully on Wednesday and might be close to clearing the league’s protocol. Dating back to last season, in his five full games as the starting tight end, Ellison has averaged 7.5 DraftKings points on 5.4 targets per game. The Redskins are No. 30 in pass defense DVOA against tight ends and have allowed the sixth-most DraftKings points to the position with 14.4 per game.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
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Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
Pictured above: Austin Hooper
Photo credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
