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Week 16 Fantasy WR Breakdown: Mike Williams Is a Future Star

The Week 16 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Dec. 22, at 1 p.m. ET. In this piece, I highlight the wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical DFS Tools, most specifically our industry-leading FantasyLabs Models.

Top Wide Receivers in the FantasyLabs Models

There are six wide receivers atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.

  • Michael Thomas: $9,300 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel
  • Julio Jones: $8,000 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel
  • Mike Williams: $5,000 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel
  • Curtis Samuel: $4,500 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
  • Chris Conley: $4,300 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
  • Alex Erickson: $3,300 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel

Odds as of Thursday afternoon and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.

Michael Thomas: New Orleans Saints (-3) at Tennessee Titans, 50.5 Over/Under

Last week on Monday Night Football, Thomas converted 12 targets into 12 receptions, 128 yards and a touchdown. The week before that, he was 11-134-1 receiving on 15 targets against the 49ers, who at the time were No. 1 in pass defense DVOA (per Football Outsiders).

There’s really nothing this guy can’t do.

Thomas is No. 1 in the league with 159 targets, 133 receptions and 1,552 yards receiving. He’s easily the No. 1 fantasy wide receiver with 19.2 FanDuel points per game, and he has been a strong source of value with his +5.89 Plus/Minus.

He leads all receivers with a 77.3% catch rate on contested targets (per Player Profiler).

Wide receiver production can be volatile, but thanks to steady target volume, Thomas has been no worse than a high-end fantasy WR2 every week except for one (per RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).

He has been especially unstoppable with quarterback Drew Brees. In seven of his eight full games this season with his starting quarterback, Thomas has double-digit targets and 100 yards receiving.

With two games left, Thomas is just 10 receptions away from tying Marvin Harrison’s single-season record of 143. With Brees, Thomas has averaged 10.1 receptions (and a robust 20.1 FanDuel points) per game this season.

Thomas is a matchup-proof player, so it almost doesn’t matter which team he’s playing, but Thomas has a good matchup against the Titans, who have a funnel defense that ranks No. 5 against the run but No. 22 against the pass in DVOA.

On top of that, perimeter cornerbacks Malcolm Butler (wrist, IR) and Adoree’ Jackson (foot) are both injured. Jackson has missed the past two games after suffering an injury in Week 13. He didn’t practice at all last week and doesn’t seem especially close to returning. Butler suffered a season-ending injury in Week 9, and since then the Titans have allowed 34.0 FanDuel points per game to opposing wide receivers.

That’s up significantly from their season-long mark of 29.1, and if extrapolated over the full year, that would give the Titans the second-highest points-allowed average overall.

If Jackson is out, Thomas is likely to match up most with backup cornerback LeShaun Sims, who has allowed a 73.9% catch rate this year.

When not facing Sims, Thomas will get aged perimeter corner Tramaine Brock, who was claimed off waivers just two weeks ago, and slot corner Logan Ryan, who has allowed an NFL-high 103 targets, 72 receptions and 893 yards.

I’m not joking: Against these defenders, Thomas has 200-yard, multi-touchdown upside.

The Saints-Titans game has a slate-high over/under, and from a betting perspective, I like the over. The Saints have been one of the league’s most offensively potent teams for years, and since quarterback Ryan Tannehill became the starter for the Titans in Week 7, points have flowed like wine (per RotoViz Team Splits App).

  • Tannehill’s starts (eight games): 30.2 points scored, 23.4 points allowed
  • Other starts (six games): 16.3 points scored, 15.3 points allowed

In Tanny’s eight starts, the over is 7-1 (per our Bet Labs database).

Team-specific production patterns can be analyzed with our FantasyLabs Correlations Tool, and Thomas and Brees have had a 0.51 correlation in production over the past year. If Thomas has a big game, Brees probably will too. For guaranteed prize pools, use our Lineup Builder to stack Thomas with his quarterback.

Baller that he is, Thomas easily leads all receivers with his median and ceiling projections in our Models and is the No. 1 option in the Bales, CSURAM88, Levitan, Koerner, SportsGeek and Freedman Models for FanDuel, where he has a position-high eight Pro Trends.

Thomas is also the No. 1 wide receiver in the Bales Model for DraftKings and our Week 16 fantasy football rankings.

Julio Jones: Atlanta Falcons (-6.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, 45.5 O/U

Last week, Julio played his first game in almost two full years without No. 2 wide receiver Calvin Ridley (abdomen, IR), who suffered a season-ending injury in Week 14. Without Ridley, Julio turned a slate-high 20 targets into a 13-134-2 receiving onslaught against a tough 49ers defense.

He’s still got it.

This season hasn’t been smooth for Julio. He has more games as a fantasy WR3 than WR1.

He’s hit salary-based expectations in just 38.5% of his games.

But Julio is the No. 5 fantasy wide receiver with 14.8 FanDuel points per game, and he’s No. 2 with 145.2 air yards and yards after the catch combined per game (per AirYards.com). That mark places him just below Mike Evans and directly above DeAndre Hopkins.

In terms of opportunity and raw skill, Julio is still very much among the elite.

Perhaps no stat more clearly highlights his superiority than yards per route run (per Pro Football Focus).

  • 2019: 2.40 (3rd)
  • 2018: 2.93 (1st)
  • 2017: 3.08 (1st)
  • 2016: 3.12 (1st)
  • 2015: 3.04 (1st)
  • 2014: 2.72 (4th)
  • 2013: 2.75 (1st)

Since the Week 9 bye, Julio has averaged 87.6 yards per game and had eight-plus targets each week. The Falcons lead the league with a 67.4% pass play rate and will likely throw a lot on this game.

What’s not to like about Julio?

And his matchup is good. Despite their formerly fearsome reputation, the Jags are No. 30 in PFF coverage grade, and No. 1 cornerback A.J. Bouye, who is likely to shadow Julio, has steadily declined over the past few years, dropping from an elite 89.9 PFF coverage grade in 2016 to a below-average 57.2 mark this year.

If you want a top-tier wide receiver but don’t want to pay all the way up for Michael Thomas, Julio is a strong option and the No. 1 player at the position in the Raybon Model for FanDuel, where he has an elite seven Pro Trends and 97% Bargain Rating.

Mike Williams: Los Angeles Chargers (-6) vs. Oakland Raiders, 46 O/U

I’ve tweeted about this, and I’ve talked about it on a podcast, but let me lay out the case here: There’s a non-zero chance that Mike Williams is better than Keenan Allen.

Let’s ignore what Williams did in 2017, when he lost much of his rookie campaign to a back injury. Let’s look only at what he’s done in 2018-19 and compare that to Allen over the same time (per RotoViz Screener).

  • Mike Williams (31 games): 0.54 receiving success rate, 10.3 yards per target, 7.4% touchdown rate
  • Keenan Allen (31 games): 0.59 receiving success rate, 8.4 yards per target, 4.3% touchdown rate

Allen has the higher success rate, and that’s indicative of his chain-moving role within the offense, but Williams is still way more efficient at turning his targets into yards and touchdowns.

The efficiency edge Williams has is reflected in RotoViz’s reFPOEPA metric (receiving fantasy points over expectation per attempt). Adjusting for where on the field the line of scrimmage is for any given target, Allen has a 0.16 reFPOEPA: On a per-target basis, he gets 0.16 fantasy points more than you’d expect a league-average wide receiver to get. That’s not bad.

But Williams has a 0.38 reFPOEPA.

And this year the overall production gap between Allen and Williams has narrowed considerably.

  • Keenan Allen (2019): 74.7 yards, 9.2 targets per game
  • Mike Williams (2019): 70.2 yards, 6.2 targets per game

What do you think would happen if the Chargers decided to take one target per game away from Allen and give it to Williams? He would probably be the team’s leading receiver.

This year, Williams is No. 1 among starting wide receivers with an 18.0-yard average depth of target (aDOT), and he’s No. 3 with 11.3 yards per target. Even though he missed Week 4 with an injury and was limited in the middle of the season with a lingering knee issue, Williams is pacing for a 1,050-yard receiving season. If not for his horrendous and random scoring drought — he has just two touchdowns this year after scoring 11 last year — people would be talking about him as if he were Kenny Golladay.

Think I’m wrong to compare him to Golladay? You might want to think again, based on these league-wide underlying receiving numbers (per AirYards.com).

Right now Allen is the more desirable fantasy option because he has the large edge in target volume, and he’s more efficient at turning targets into receptions because of his low 10.3-yard aDOT.

And Allen is almost certainly the more nuanced player: He’s known for his precise route-running technique and ability to get open.

But I’m not sure how much that matters.

Golladay’s not better than Marvin Jones Jr. at running routes, but he’s clearly more dominant, and Williams is similar in style to Golladay as a “my ball” bully of a receiver. I expect that lots of people — in a pre-Moneyball fashion — overvalue Allen and undervalue Williams for reasons that have more to do with aesthetics and less to do with statistics.

Williams was drafted No. 7 overall just three years ago. He has elite size (6-foot-4, 218 pounds). In just his second season, he had double-digit receiving touchdowns. Seven years into his career, Allen is yet to hit that mark. In his most efficient campaign, Allen had 10.0 yards per target as a rookie. Williams has surpassed that mark twice with 10.1 last year and 11.3 this year.

Maybe the Chargers aren’t using Allen as efficiently as they should be. That’s possible. But I think it is likelier that they are giving him too many targets and Williams too few. And I expect that their target distributions will eventually even out, especially given that Williams has straight-up outplayed Allen since Week 5.

In this 10-game span, Williams has run 355 routes; Allen, 358. Williams has 2.13 yards per route; Allen, 1.66 (per PFF).

At some point, there will be a reckoning. Next year, I won’t be surprised if Williams has more yards and touchdowns — and maybe even more targets — than Allen.

Till then, Williams is a boom-or-bust big-play GPP-only option — but he might boom this week: The Raiders are No. 31 in pass defense DVOA. Specifically, the Raiders are No. 31 against No. 2 receivers. And they might be without No. 1 cornerback Daryl Worley (neck), who missed Week 15 and didn’t practice at any point during the week.

From a betting perspective, I like the Chargers-Raiders under. Since they moved to Los Angeles in 2017 and started playing at the small StubHub Center — now Dignity Health Sports Park — the Chargers have been one of the league’s most under-friendly home teams with a 14-7 record.

The Chargers could fail to put up points, and Williams doesn’t have the locked-in target volume necessary to roster him in cash games — but as a tournament play, he has big upside.

Williams is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Levitan, Koerner and Freedman Models for DraftKings, where he has a position-high seven Pro Trends.

Curtis Samuel: Carolina Panthers (+6.5) at Indianapolis Colts, 47 O/U

Since the Week 8 bye, Samuel has been a retroactive time-bending Soundgarden song inspiration.

  • D.J. Moore (eight games): 53-749-3 receiving on 84 targets, 4-15-0 rushing
  • Curtis Samuel (eight games): 27-300-4 receiving on 54 targets, 12-90-rushing

Over the past two months, Moore has almost as many targets as Samuel has receptions. Outshined, amirite?

For the season, Samuel is feeling Minnesota as the No. 48 fantasy wide receiver with just 11.7 DraftKings points per game.

Samuel is talented. Entering the league, he was a virtual Percy Harvin clone as a prospect (5-foot-11, 196 pounds, 4.31-second 40-yard dash, 74-865-7 receiving and 97-771-8 rushing as a junior in final college season). But it’s hard to get excited about a guy who’s the No. 3 receiving option in a mediocre offense that’s about to be quarterbacked by a third-string rookie making his first NFL start.

With Will Grier under center, who knows what to expect from the Panthers?

But Samuel warrants tournament consideration. Every game he’s scored a touchdown this year, he’s been no worse than a fantasy WR2, and he’s scored in six of 14 games.

In a week with five games off of the main slate, Samuel is priced as the No. 34 wide receiver at $4,500 on DraftKings. But he’s No. 22 in the league 112.5 air yards and yards after the catch per game. And over the past month, he’s been used more than occasionally as a rusher, averaging 20 yards on 2.8 carries per game.

Samuel is likely to have low ownership: Grier’s presence in the starting lineup will diminish interest in the entire team, and running back Christian McCaffrey and Moore are likely to account for the vast majority of Panthers investments. Since the bye week, Samuel has had a 4.0% ownership rate in large-field tournaments, and last week he was rostered at 2.0% (per our FantasyLabs Trends Tool and FantasyLabs Ownership Dashboard).

With his near-elite combination of five Pro Trends and 87% Bargain Rating, Samuel is worth some strategic GPP shots on DraftKings, where he’s the No. 1 wide receiver in the CSURAM88 Model.

Chris Conley: Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5) at Atlanta Falcons, 45.5 O/U

With No. 1 wide receiver D.J. Chark (ankle) on the sideline, Conley popped in the Week 15 Models, and he delivered a Millionaire Maker-winning 4-49-2 receiving performance. He could go off once again this week.

Although Chark has been cleared to return to practice, I’m skeptical that he’ll play this week. The Jags have almost no incentive to rush him back to action.

In Chark’s absence, Conley will serve as the team’s top perimeter receiver, and given his volume — he’s averaged 6.6 targets per game since the Week 10 bye and had eight targets last week — Conley’s probably still too cheap at $4,300 on DraftKings.

Conley is far from consistent: In three games this year, he’s scored more than 20 DraftKings points. In the remaining 11 games, he’s had fewer than 14.

A true boom-or-bust receiver, Conley is one of the most touchdown-dependent producers I’ve ever seen.

  • Touchdown (three games): 22.0 DraftKings points, 7.3 targets, 4.7 receptions, 83 yards, 1.33 touchdowns
  • No touchdown (11 games): 6.7 DraftKings points, 5.3 targets, 2.6 receptions, 39.3 yards, no touchdown

If Conley gets a touchdown, it’s likely to be accompanied with a lot of yards, because Conley’s a big-play receiver.

And against the Falcons, Conley has an elevated chance of breaking loose for a long score. The Falcons are No. 26 in PFF coverage grade and without No. 1 cornerback Desmond Trufant (arm, IR).

Don’t chase last week’s points, but also don’t avoid Conley simply because you want to zig while others zag. The investment thesis that was profitable in Week 15 still applies in Week 16.

Conley is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Raybon Model for DraftKings, where he has a position-high +3.14 Projected Plus/Minus.

Alex Erickson: Cincinnati Bengals (PK) at Miami Dolphins, 46.5 O/U

If you like setting money on fire, this is the play for you.

It’s all about the matchup: The Dolphins are No. 32 in pass defense DVOA. They are utterly exploitable right now. It’s hard to describe just how disfigured the Dolphins secondary is. Here’s how their secondary has changed from Week 1 to now.

  • Right cornerback: Xavien Howard –> Linden Stephens
  • Left cornerback: Eric Rowe –> Nik Needham
  • Slot cornerback: Minkah Fitzpatrick –> Jomal Wiltz
  • Strong safety: Reshad Jones –> Eric Rowe
  • Free safety: Bobby McCain –> Adrian Colbert

At corner, the Dolphins are starting three undrafted third- and fourth-stringers. At safety, they’re using a converted corner who had never played the position till Week 6 and a third-year washout who wasn’t on the team till Week 12.

These guys give up more points than the Hufflepuff quidditch team.

Since becoming a regular receiver in three-wide sets in Week 6, Erickson has been … not the worst receiver in the league.

There’s no denying that this guy has a six-foot underground floor: Last week, he had his worst game of the year with just six yards on one reception. He’s yet to score a touchdown this year.

But he’s cheap at $3,300 on DraftKings, and he’s likely to have a sub-1% ownership rate.

And since Week 6, he’s averaged a manageable 47.1 yards on 6.2 targets, 3.2 receptions and 0.4 carries per game. It’s not as if he doesn’t have a ceiling: He’s hit 10 DraftKings points four times and 15 points twice. And Erickson is due for a change in scoring luck. With his usage and yardage, he should find the end zone eventually — and the Dolphins are the kind of team to help a guy get a touchdown.

Erickson is the No. 1 wide receiver in the SportsGeek Model for DraftKings, where he has a strong 96% Bargain Rating.

Upside Wide Receivers for Guaranteed Prize Pools

Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks ($7,600 DK, $7,600 FD): In his six games with a touchdown this year, Lockett has averaged 20.0 FanDuel points, and he has an exploitable matchup against rookie slot cornerback Byron Murphy, who has allowed an NFL-high nine touchdowns in his coverage. The Seahawks have a slate-high 30.5-point implied Vegas total, and Lockett has a top-three mark on FanDuel with a 97% Bargain Rating.

A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans ($7,000 DK, $7,200 FD): After a horrible first three weeks to the season, No. 1 cornerback Marshon Lattimore has held opposing receivers to a catch rate of just 44.2%, and he’s slated to shadow Brown. But the first-year receiver has amassed a 20-447-4 receiving line in four games since the Week 11 bye, and over the past decade, Odell Beckham Jr. and T.Y. Hilton are the only rookies to have more than Brown’s three 100-yard, one-touchdown games.

D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers ($6,900 DK, $6,600 FD): Since the Week 7 bye, Moore has emerged as not just the top option on his team but a full-fledged No. 1 wide receiver in the league, putting up a 53-749-3 receiving line on 84 targets in eight games. For the season, Moore is No. 4 in the league with 134.1 air yards and yards after the catch per game, and if he finishes the season at his 1,341.7-yard pace, he will find himself in a top-tier historical cohort of 22-year-old second-year receivers that includes Randy Moss, Larry Fitzgerald and DeAndre Hopkins, among other elite receivers. Moore has has a position-high floor projection on DraftKings.

DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins ($6,800 DK, $6,900 FD): In his five full games without teammate Preston Williams (knee, IR), Parker has accumulated a 29-526-4 receiving line and looked every bit like a No. 1 receiver. The Bengals are No. 30 in pass defense DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers. Parker has an elite 97% Bargain Rating on FanDuel.

Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Miami Dolphins wide receiver DeVante Parker (11).

Amari Cooper, Dallas Cowboys ($6,700 DK, $7,700 FD): In his three divisional matchups against the Eagles since joining the Cowboys last year, Cooper has averaged 28.3 DraftKings points, 132.7 yards and one touchdown on 9.3 targets and seven receptions per game.

Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions ($6,500 DK, $7,400 FD): Golladay is coming off a disappointing 44-yard performance, he has an undrafted third-string rookie quarterback in David Blough, and No. 1 cornerback Chris Harris Jr. is likely to shadow him. But Golladay is the only wide receiver this season with at least 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns receiving, and he’s No. 7 with 129.6 air yards and yards after the catch per game. Babytron is all grown up.

T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts ($6,400 DK, $7,300 FD): Hilton had just 25 scoreless yards in his return from injury last week, but he seems to have emerged without a setback, and he had nine targets. Hilton is on the positive side of his splits and has averaged 19.3 DraftKings points in his 32 games as a home favorite since his 2014 breakout season.

Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers ($6,300 DK, $6,700 FD): I personally tend to be underwhelmed by Allen, but he’s averaged 8.8 targets per game over the past two months, and he has an exploitable matchup in the slot against cornerback Lamarcus Joyner, who has a horrible 43.7 PFF coverage grade with a 75.0% catch rate allowed. Allen has position-high marks on FanDuel with his floor projection and +3.70 Projected Plus/Minus.

Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos ($6,200 DK, $7,100 FD): Sutton has had a few dud performances in his breakout campaign, but last week he crossed the 1,000-yard threshold for the year and had a season-high 10 targets. He’s slate for a tough shadow matchup against No. 1 cornerback Darius Slay, but the Lions have allowed a league-high 488 air yards and yards after the catch per game to opposing teams.

Terry McLaurin, Washington Redskins ($6,200 DK, $6,500 FD): Last week, McLaurin had his third game of the year with 100-plus yards and a touchdown, and he has a great matchup against the Giants, who just last week released No. 1 cornerback Janoris Jenkins and are No. 30 in pass defense DVOA. McLaurin is likely to match up most with rookie cornerback DeAndre Baker, who has the position’s third-worst stat line with 712 yards and seven touchdowns allowed.

Sterling Shepard, New York Giants ($6,100 DK, $6,300 FD): Shepard is coming off a 9-111-0 receiving performance on a season-high 11 targets, and since returning from injury in Week 12, he’s averaged 8.3 targets per game. The Redskins are No. 32 in pass defense DVOA against No. 2 receivers.

Jarvis Landry, Cleveland Browns ($6,000 DK, $6,900 FD): Since the Week 7 bye, Landry has averaged 17.5 DraftKings points on 9.9 targets per game. He has a tough matchup against slot cornerback Marlon Humphrey, but in Week 4, Landry went off against the Ravens with an 8-167-0 performance on 10 targets.

D.K. Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks ($5,900 DK, $6,300 FD): Metcalf has just one fantasy WR1 game this season, and he’s slated for a shadow matchup with cornerback Patrick Peterson, but the former All-Pro defender has allowed a 72.0% catch rate this year, and the Cardinals are No. 32 in PFF coverage grade. Metcalf leads the league with 15 end-zone targets and has averaged seven targets per game since tight end Will Dissly (Achilles) suffered a season-ending injury in Week 6.

Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals ($5,800 DK, $6,300 FD): A less inspiring version of Keenan Allen, Boyd had just 26 yards last week, but he’s No. 11 in the league with nine targets per game. The Dolphins have allowed the fourth-most FanDuel points per game to opposing wide receivers with 33.3.

Odell Beckham Jr., Cleveland Browns ($5,800 DK, $6,700 FD): Beckham has just two 100-yard games and two touchdowns this year, and the Ravens are No. 4 in pass defense DVOA, but OBJ had 13 targets last week, and he’s No. 8 in the league with 128.7 air yards and yards after the catch per game. Beckham could have a sub-1% ownership rate, and he hasn’t been as cheap as $5,800 on DraftKings since Week 10 of his rookie season in 2014.

Robby Anderson, New York Jets ($5,700 DK, $6,100 FD): Over the past month, Anderson has caught fire, averaging 19.8 DraftKings points, 92.5 yards and 0.5 touchdowns on eight targets per game. Anderson has scored a touchdown in 39.1% of his 23 games with quarterback Sam Darnold, and in those games he’s averaged 21.5 DraftKings points. The Steelers are No. 5 in pass defense DVOA, but Anderson’s odds of scoring a touchdown down seem higher than his likely sub-5% ownership rate in tournaments.

Christian Kirk, Arizona Cardinals ($5,600 DK, $5,900 FD): For the past six games, Kirk has played primarily wide to the right, and No. 1 cornerback Shaquill Griffin (hamstring) lines up on the left, but he missed Week 14 and is uncertain for this week. Backup cornerback Akeem King is a career special-teamer who has allowed an 84.6% catch rate this year. Since returning from injury in Week 8, Kirk has averaged eight targets per game.

Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys ($5,500 DK, $6,500 FD): In the seven games since the Week 8 bye, Gallup leads the team with 55 targets, 490 yards receiving and 818 air yards and yards after the catch. Gallup had just 34 scoreless yards against the Eagles in Week 7, but the Eagles have allowed the second-most DraftKings points to opposing wide receivers with 41.9 per game.

Darius Slayton, New York Giants ($5,500 DK, $6,000 FD): In his three full games as the No. 3 wide receiver behind Golden Tate and Sterling Shepard, the rookie Slayton has averaged 19.1 DraftKings points. The Redskins are dealing with multiple injuries at cornerback, and they are No. 24 in pass defense DVOA against supplementary wide receivers.

Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New York Giants wide receiver Darius Slayton (86).

Jamison Crowder, New York Jets ($5,400 DK, $6,000 FD): Crowder had a 6-90-2 receiving performance last week on 11 targets, and in his 11 games with quarterback Sam Darnold, he has averaged 13.8 DraftKings points on 8.2 targets. The Steelers are No. 6 in PFF coverage grade, but Crowder has been no worse than a high-end fantasy WR2 in five Darnold games.

James Washington, Pittsburgh Steelers ($5,300 DK, $6,600 FD): No. 1 wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee) has missed the past four games and is uncertain for Week 16. In his absence, Washington has averaged 15.9 DraftKings points, 81.3 yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game. The Jets have a funnel defense that ranks No. 2 against the run but No. 24 against the pass in DVOA.

Danny Amendola, Detroit Lions ($4,900 DK, $6,000 FD): Without teammate Marvin Jones (ankle, IR), Amendola was 8-102-0 receiving on a season-high 13 targets, and he should serve as the No. 2 receiver again this week. Despite averaging just 10.5 DraftKings points per game, Amendola has been no worse than a high-end fantasy WR2 in four games.

Golden Tate, New York Giants ($4,800 DK, $6,200 FD): Quarterback Daniel Jones (ankle) is expected to return to the starting lineup this week, and Tate has averaged 15.7 DraftKings points on 8.1 targets per game with Jones. Slot cornerback Jimmy Moreland (foot, IR) is out for the season, and slot-turned-perimeter corner Fabian Moreay (hamstring) missed practice on Wednesday, so Tate will likely be going against a backup this week.

Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers ($4,700 DK, $5,700 FD): Without No. 1 wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee), Johnson has averaged 6.5 target per game over the past month, and for the year, Johnson has three fantasy WR1 performances. The Jets are No. 27 in pass defense DVOA against No. 2 receivers.

Greg Ward Jr., Philadelphia Eagles ($4,200 DK, $5,700 FD): No. 1 wide receiver Alshon Jeffery (foot, IR) is out for the year, and No. 2 wide receiver Nelson Agholor (knee) has missed the past two weeks and is uncertain to play. In the Agholor-less and mostly Alshon-less Weeks 12 & 14-15, Ward has averaged 12.2 DraftKings points on 8.3 targets per game.

John Ross, Cincinnati Bengals ($4,200 DK, $5,200 FD): Ross has only three targets per game since returning from injury in Week 14, but he flashed to open the season with back-to-back games of 100-plus yards and a touchdown, and the Dolphins are No. 31 in PFF coverage grade.

Albert Wilson, Miami Dolphins ($3,800 DK, $5,400 FD): In his five full weeks without teammate Preston Williams (knee, IR), Wilson has averaged 5.8 targets per game, and last week he had a season-high eight targets. The Bengals are No. 27 in pass defense DVOA and without No. 1 cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick (knee, IR).

Keelan Cole, Jacksonville Jaguars ($3,600 DK, $5,400 FD): With No. 1 wide receiver D.J. Chark (ankle) missed last week and is uncertain for this week. If Chark is out, Cole will once again play in three-wide sets. In his two games this year with a snap rate of at least 60%, Cole has averaged 11.8 DraftKings points and 78 yards on six targets per game. The Falcons are No. 27 in pass defense DVOA against supplementary wide receivers.

FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns

For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network. For updates, see our FantasyLabs News Feed.



Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.

Pictured above: Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Mike Williams (81)
Photo credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

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The Week 16 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Dec. 22, at 1 p.m. ET. In this piece, I highlight the wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical DFS Tools, most specifically our industry-leading FantasyLabs Models.

Top Wide Receivers in the FantasyLabs Models

There are six wide receivers atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.

  • Michael Thomas: $9,300 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel
  • Julio Jones: $8,000 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel
  • Mike Williams: $5,000 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel
  • Curtis Samuel: $4,500 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
  • Chris Conley: $4,300 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
  • Alex Erickson: $3,300 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel

Odds as of Thursday afternoon and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.

Michael Thomas: New Orleans Saints (-3) at Tennessee Titans, 50.5 Over/Under

Last week on Monday Night Football, Thomas converted 12 targets into 12 receptions, 128 yards and a touchdown. The week before that, he was 11-134-1 receiving on 15 targets against the 49ers, who at the time were No. 1 in pass defense DVOA (per Football Outsiders).

There’s really nothing this guy can’t do.

Thomas is No. 1 in the league with 159 targets, 133 receptions and 1,552 yards receiving. He’s easily the No. 1 fantasy wide receiver with 19.2 FanDuel points per game, and he has been a strong source of value with his +5.89 Plus/Minus.

He leads all receivers with a 77.3% catch rate on contested targets (per Player Profiler).

Wide receiver production can be volatile, but thanks to steady target volume, Thomas has been no worse than a high-end fantasy WR2 every week except for one (per RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).

He has been especially unstoppable with quarterback Drew Brees. In seven of his eight full games this season with his starting quarterback, Thomas has double-digit targets and 100 yards receiving.

With two games left, Thomas is just 10 receptions away from tying Marvin Harrison’s single-season record of 143. With Brees, Thomas has averaged 10.1 receptions (and a robust 20.1 FanDuel points) per game this season.

Thomas is a matchup-proof player, so it almost doesn’t matter which team he’s playing, but Thomas has a good matchup against the Titans, who have a funnel defense that ranks No. 5 against the run but No. 22 against the pass in DVOA.

On top of that, perimeter cornerbacks Malcolm Butler (wrist, IR) and Adoree’ Jackson (foot) are both injured. Jackson has missed the past two games after suffering an injury in Week 13. He didn’t practice at all last week and doesn’t seem especially close to returning. Butler suffered a season-ending injury in Week 9, and since then the Titans have allowed 34.0 FanDuel points per game to opposing wide receivers.

That’s up significantly from their season-long mark of 29.1, and if extrapolated over the full year, that would give the Titans the second-highest points-allowed average overall.

If Jackson is out, Thomas is likely to match up most with backup cornerback LeShaun Sims, who has allowed a 73.9% catch rate this year.

When not facing Sims, Thomas will get aged perimeter corner Tramaine Brock, who was claimed off waivers just two weeks ago, and slot corner Logan Ryan, who has allowed an NFL-high 103 targets, 72 receptions and 893 yards.

I’m not joking: Against these defenders, Thomas has 200-yard, multi-touchdown upside.

The Saints-Titans game has a slate-high over/under, and from a betting perspective, I like the over. The Saints have been one of the league’s most offensively potent teams for years, and since quarterback Ryan Tannehill became the starter for the Titans in Week 7, points have flowed like wine (per RotoViz Team Splits App).

  • Tannehill’s starts (eight games): 30.2 points scored, 23.4 points allowed
  • Other starts (six games): 16.3 points scored, 15.3 points allowed

In Tanny’s eight starts, the over is 7-1 (per our Bet Labs database).

Team-specific production patterns can be analyzed with our FantasyLabs Correlations Tool, and Thomas and Brees have had a 0.51 correlation in production over the past year. If Thomas has a big game, Brees probably will too. For guaranteed prize pools, use our Lineup Builder to stack Thomas with his quarterback.

Baller that he is, Thomas easily leads all receivers with his median and ceiling projections in our Models and is the No. 1 option in the Bales, CSURAM88, Levitan, Koerner, SportsGeek and Freedman Models for FanDuel, where he has a position-high eight Pro Trends.

Thomas is also the No. 1 wide receiver in the Bales Model for DraftKings and our Week 16 fantasy football rankings.

Julio Jones: Atlanta Falcons (-6.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, 45.5 O/U

Last week, Julio played his first game in almost two full years without No. 2 wide receiver Calvin Ridley (abdomen, IR), who suffered a season-ending injury in Week 14. Without Ridley, Julio turned a slate-high 20 targets into a 13-134-2 receiving onslaught against a tough 49ers defense.

He’s still got it.

This season hasn’t been smooth for Julio. He has more games as a fantasy WR3 than WR1.

He’s hit salary-based expectations in just 38.5% of his games.

But Julio is the No. 5 fantasy wide receiver with 14.8 FanDuel points per game, and he’s No. 2 with 145.2 air yards and yards after the catch combined per game (per AirYards.com). That mark places him just below Mike Evans and directly above DeAndre Hopkins.

In terms of opportunity and raw skill, Julio is still very much among the elite.

Perhaps no stat more clearly highlights his superiority than yards per route run (per Pro Football Focus).

  • 2019: 2.40 (3rd)
  • 2018: 2.93 (1st)
  • 2017: 3.08 (1st)
  • 2016: 3.12 (1st)
  • 2015: 3.04 (1st)
  • 2014: 2.72 (4th)
  • 2013: 2.75 (1st)

Since the Week 9 bye, Julio has averaged 87.6 yards per game and had eight-plus targets each week. The Falcons lead the league with a 67.4% pass play rate and will likely throw a lot on this game.

What’s not to like about Julio?

And his matchup is good. Despite their formerly fearsome reputation, the Jags are No. 30 in PFF coverage grade, and No. 1 cornerback A.J. Bouye, who is likely to shadow Julio, has steadily declined over the past few years, dropping from an elite 89.9 PFF coverage grade in 2016 to a below-average 57.2 mark this year.

If you want a top-tier wide receiver but don’t want to pay all the way up for Michael Thomas, Julio is a strong option and the No. 1 player at the position in the Raybon Model for FanDuel, where he has an elite seven Pro Trends and 97% Bargain Rating.

Mike Williams: Los Angeles Chargers (-6) vs. Oakland Raiders, 46 O/U

I’ve tweeted about this, and I’ve talked about it on a podcast, but let me lay out the case here: There’s a non-zero chance that Mike Williams is better than Keenan Allen.

Let’s ignore what Williams did in 2017, when he lost much of his rookie campaign to a back injury. Let’s look only at what he’s done in 2018-19 and compare that to Allen over the same time (per RotoViz Screener).

  • Mike Williams (31 games): 0.54 receiving success rate, 10.3 yards per target, 7.4% touchdown rate
  • Keenan Allen (31 games): 0.59 receiving success rate, 8.4 yards per target, 4.3% touchdown rate

Allen has the higher success rate, and that’s indicative of his chain-moving role within the offense, but Williams is still way more efficient at turning his targets into yards and touchdowns.

The efficiency edge Williams has is reflected in RotoViz’s reFPOEPA metric (receiving fantasy points over expectation per attempt). Adjusting for where on the field the line of scrimmage is for any given target, Allen has a 0.16 reFPOEPA: On a per-target basis, he gets 0.16 fantasy points more than you’d expect a league-average wide receiver to get. That’s not bad.

But Williams has a 0.38 reFPOEPA.

And this year the overall production gap between Allen and Williams has narrowed considerably.

  • Keenan Allen (2019): 74.7 yards, 9.2 targets per game
  • Mike Williams (2019): 70.2 yards, 6.2 targets per game

What do you think would happen if the Chargers decided to take one target per game away from Allen and give it to Williams? He would probably be the team’s leading receiver.

This year, Williams is No. 1 among starting wide receivers with an 18.0-yard average depth of target (aDOT), and he’s No. 3 with 11.3 yards per target. Even though he missed Week 4 with an injury and was limited in the middle of the season with a lingering knee issue, Williams is pacing for a 1,050-yard receiving season. If not for his horrendous and random scoring drought — he has just two touchdowns this year after scoring 11 last year — people would be talking about him as if he were Kenny Golladay.

Think I’m wrong to compare him to Golladay? You might want to think again, based on these league-wide underlying receiving numbers (per AirYards.com).

Right now Allen is the more desirable fantasy option because he has the large edge in target volume, and he’s more efficient at turning targets into receptions because of his low 10.3-yard aDOT.

And Allen is almost certainly the more nuanced player: He’s known for his precise route-running technique and ability to get open.

But I’m not sure how much that matters.

Golladay’s not better than Marvin Jones Jr. at running routes, but he’s clearly more dominant, and Williams is similar in style to Golladay as a “my ball” bully of a receiver. I expect that lots of people — in a pre-Moneyball fashion — overvalue Allen and undervalue Williams for reasons that have more to do with aesthetics and less to do with statistics.

Williams was drafted No. 7 overall just three years ago. He has elite size (6-foot-4, 218 pounds). In just his second season, he had double-digit receiving touchdowns. Seven years into his career, Allen is yet to hit that mark. In his most efficient campaign, Allen had 10.0 yards per target as a rookie. Williams has surpassed that mark twice with 10.1 last year and 11.3 this year.

Maybe the Chargers aren’t using Allen as efficiently as they should be. That’s possible. But I think it is likelier that they are giving him too many targets and Williams too few. And I expect that their target distributions will eventually even out, especially given that Williams has straight-up outplayed Allen since Week 5.

In this 10-game span, Williams has run 355 routes; Allen, 358. Williams has 2.13 yards per route; Allen, 1.66 (per PFF).

At some point, there will be a reckoning. Next year, I won’t be surprised if Williams has more yards and touchdowns — and maybe even more targets — than Allen.

Till then, Williams is a boom-or-bust big-play GPP-only option — but he might boom this week: The Raiders are No. 31 in pass defense DVOA. Specifically, the Raiders are No. 31 against No. 2 receivers. And they might be without No. 1 cornerback Daryl Worley (neck), who missed Week 15 and didn’t practice at any point during the week.

From a betting perspective, I like the Chargers-Raiders under. Since they moved to Los Angeles in 2017 and started playing at the small StubHub Center — now Dignity Health Sports Park — the Chargers have been one of the league’s most under-friendly home teams with a 14-7 record.

The Chargers could fail to put up points, and Williams doesn’t have the locked-in target volume necessary to roster him in cash games — but as a tournament play, he has big upside.

Williams is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Levitan, Koerner and Freedman Models for DraftKings, where he has a position-high seven Pro Trends.

Curtis Samuel: Carolina Panthers (+6.5) at Indianapolis Colts, 47 O/U

Since the Week 8 bye, Samuel has been a retroactive time-bending Soundgarden song inspiration.

  • D.J. Moore (eight games): 53-749-3 receiving on 84 targets, 4-15-0 rushing
  • Curtis Samuel (eight games): 27-300-4 receiving on 54 targets, 12-90-rushing

Over the past two months, Moore has almost as many targets as Samuel has receptions. Outshined, amirite?

For the season, Samuel is feeling Minnesota as the No. 48 fantasy wide receiver with just 11.7 DraftKings points per game.

Samuel is talented. Entering the league, he was a virtual Percy Harvin clone as a prospect (5-foot-11, 196 pounds, 4.31-second 40-yard dash, 74-865-7 receiving and 97-771-8 rushing as a junior in final college season). But it’s hard to get excited about a guy who’s the No. 3 receiving option in a mediocre offense that’s about to be quarterbacked by a third-string rookie making his first NFL start.

With Will Grier under center, who knows what to expect from the Panthers?

But Samuel warrants tournament consideration. Every game he’s scored a touchdown this year, he’s been no worse than a fantasy WR2, and he’s scored in six of 14 games.

In a week with five games off of the main slate, Samuel is priced as the No. 34 wide receiver at $4,500 on DraftKings. But he’s No. 22 in the league 112.5 air yards and yards after the catch per game. And over the past month, he’s been used more than occasionally as a rusher, averaging 20 yards on 2.8 carries per game.

Samuel is likely to have low ownership: Grier’s presence in the starting lineup will diminish interest in the entire team, and running back Christian McCaffrey and Moore are likely to account for the vast majority of Panthers investments. Since the bye week, Samuel has had a 4.0% ownership rate in large-field tournaments, and last week he was rostered at 2.0% (per our FantasyLabs Trends Tool and FantasyLabs Ownership Dashboard).

With his near-elite combination of five Pro Trends and 87% Bargain Rating, Samuel is worth some strategic GPP shots on DraftKings, where he’s the No. 1 wide receiver in the CSURAM88 Model.

Chris Conley: Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5) at Atlanta Falcons, 45.5 O/U

With No. 1 wide receiver D.J. Chark (ankle) on the sideline, Conley popped in the Week 15 Models, and he delivered a Millionaire Maker-winning 4-49-2 receiving performance. He could go off once again this week.

Although Chark has been cleared to return to practice, I’m skeptical that he’ll play this week. The Jags have almost no incentive to rush him back to action.

In Chark’s absence, Conley will serve as the team’s top perimeter receiver, and given his volume — he’s averaged 6.6 targets per game since the Week 10 bye and had eight targets last week — Conley’s probably still too cheap at $4,300 on DraftKings.

Conley is far from consistent: In three games this year, he’s scored more than 20 DraftKings points. In the remaining 11 games, he’s had fewer than 14.

A true boom-or-bust receiver, Conley is one of the most touchdown-dependent producers I’ve ever seen.

  • Touchdown (three games): 22.0 DraftKings points, 7.3 targets, 4.7 receptions, 83 yards, 1.33 touchdowns
  • No touchdown (11 games): 6.7 DraftKings points, 5.3 targets, 2.6 receptions, 39.3 yards, no touchdown

If Conley gets a touchdown, it’s likely to be accompanied with a lot of yards, because Conley’s a big-play receiver.

And against the Falcons, Conley has an elevated chance of breaking loose for a long score. The Falcons are No. 26 in PFF coverage grade and without No. 1 cornerback Desmond Trufant (arm, IR).

Don’t chase last week’s points, but also don’t avoid Conley simply because you want to zig while others zag. The investment thesis that was profitable in Week 15 still applies in Week 16.

Conley is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Raybon Model for DraftKings, where he has a position-high +3.14 Projected Plus/Minus.

Alex Erickson: Cincinnati Bengals (PK) at Miami Dolphins, 46.5 O/U

If you like setting money on fire, this is the play for you.

It’s all about the matchup: The Dolphins are No. 32 in pass defense DVOA. They are utterly exploitable right now. It’s hard to describe just how disfigured the Dolphins secondary is. Here’s how their secondary has changed from Week 1 to now.

  • Right cornerback: Xavien Howard –> Linden Stephens
  • Left cornerback: Eric Rowe –> Nik Needham
  • Slot cornerback: Minkah Fitzpatrick –> Jomal Wiltz
  • Strong safety: Reshad Jones –> Eric Rowe
  • Free safety: Bobby McCain –> Adrian Colbert

At corner, the Dolphins are starting three undrafted third- and fourth-stringers. At safety, they’re using a converted corner who had never played the position till Week 6 and a third-year washout who wasn’t on the team till Week 12.

These guys give up more points than the Hufflepuff quidditch team.

Since becoming a regular receiver in three-wide sets in Week 6, Erickson has been … not the worst receiver in the league.

There’s no denying that this guy has a six-foot underground floor: Last week, he had his worst game of the year with just six yards on one reception. He’s yet to score a touchdown this year.

But he’s cheap at $3,300 on DraftKings, and he’s likely to have a sub-1% ownership rate.

And since Week 6, he’s averaged a manageable 47.1 yards on 6.2 targets, 3.2 receptions and 0.4 carries per game. It’s not as if he doesn’t have a ceiling: He’s hit 10 DraftKings points four times and 15 points twice. And Erickson is due for a change in scoring luck. With his usage and yardage, he should find the end zone eventually — and the Dolphins are the kind of team to help a guy get a touchdown.

Erickson is the No. 1 wide receiver in the SportsGeek Model for DraftKings, where he has a strong 96% Bargain Rating.

Upside Wide Receivers for Guaranteed Prize Pools

Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks ($7,600 DK, $7,600 FD): In his six games with a touchdown this year, Lockett has averaged 20.0 FanDuel points, and he has an exploitable matchup against rookie slot cornerback Byron Murphy, who has allowed an NFL-high nine touchdowns in his coverage. The Seahawks have a slate-high 30.5-point implied Vegas total, and Lockett has a top-three mark on FanDuel with a 97% Bargain Rating.

A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans ($7,000 DK, $7,200 FD): After a horrible first three weeks to the season, No. 1 cornerback Marshon Lattimore has held opposing receivers to a catch rate of just 44.2%, and he’s slated to shadow Brown. But the first-year receiver has amassed a 20-447-4 receiving line in four games since the Week 11 bye, and over the past decade, Odell Beckham Jr. and T.Y. Hilton are the only rookies to have more than Brown’s three 100-yard, one-touchdown games.

D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers ($6,900 DK, $6,600 FD): Since the Week 7 bye, Moore has emerged as not just the top option on his team but a full-fledged No. 1 wide receiver in the league, putting up a 53-749-3 receiving line on 84 targets in eight games. For the season, Moore is No. 4 in the league with 134.1 air yards and yards after the catch per game, and if he finishes the season at his 1,341.7-yard pace, he will find himself in a top-tier historical cohort of 22-year-old second-year receivers that includes Randy Moss, Larry Fitzgerald and DeAndre Hopkins, among other elite receivers. Moore has has a position-high floor projection on DraftKings.

DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins ($6,800 DK, $6,900 FD): In his five full games without teammate Preston Williams (knee, IR), Parker has accumulated a 29-526-4 receiving line and looked every bit like a No. 1 receiver. The Bengals are No. 30 in pass defense DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers. Parker has an elite 97% Bargain Rating on FanDuel.

Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Miami Dolphins wide receiver DeVante Parker (11).

Amari Cooper, Dallas Cowboys ($6,700 DK, $7,700 FD): In his three divisional matchups against the Eagles since joining the Cowboys last year, Cooper has averaged 28.3 DraftKings points, 132.7 yards and one touchdown on 9.3 targets and seven receptions per game.

Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions ($6,500 DK, $7,400 FD): Golladay is coming off a disappointing 44-yard performance, he has an undrafted third-string rookie quarterback in David Blough, and No. 1 cornerback Chris Harris Jr. is likely to shadow him. But Golladay is the only wide receiver this season with at least 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns receiving, and he’s No. 7 with 129.6 air yards and yards after the catch per game. Babytron is all grown up.

T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts ($6,400 DK, $7,300 FD): Hilton had just 25 scoreless yards in his return from injury last week, but he seems to have emerged without a setback, and he had nine targets. Hilton is on the positive side of his splits and has averaged 19.3 DraftKings points in his 32 games as a home favorite since his 2014 breakout season.

Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers ($6,300 DK, $6,700 FD): I personally tend to be underwhelmed by Allen, but he’s averaged 8.8 targets per game over the past two months, and he has an exploitable matchup in the slot against cornerback Lamarcus Joyner, who has a horrible 43.7 PFF coverage grade with a 75.0% catch rate allowed. Allen has position-high marks on FanDuel with his floor projection and +3.70 Projected Plus/Minus.

Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos ($6,200 DK, $7,100 FD): Sutton has had a few dud performances in his breakout campaign, but last week he crossed the 1,000-yard threshold for the year and had a season-high 10 targets. He’s slate for a tough shadow matchup against No. 1 cornerback Darius Slay, but the Lions have allowed a league-high 488 air yards and yards after the catch per game to opposing teams.

Terry McLaurin, Washington Redskins ($6,200 DK, $6,500 FD): Last week, McLaurin had his third game of the year with 100-plus yards and a touchdown, and he has a great matchup against the Giants, who just last week released No. 1 cornerback Janoris Jenkins and are No. 30 in pass defense DVOA. McLaurin is likely to match up most with rookie cornerback DeAndre Baker, who has the position’s third-worst stat line with 712 yards and seven touchdowns allowed.

Sterling Shepard, New York Giants ($6,100 DK, $6,300 FD): Shepard is coming off a 9-111-0 receiving performance on a season-high 11 targets, and since returning from injury in Week 12, he’s averaged 8.3 targets per game. The Redskins are No. 32 in pass defense DVOA against No. 2 receivers.

Jarvis Landry, Cleveland Browns ($6,000 DK, $6,900 FD): Since the Week 7 bye, Landry has averaged 17.5 DraftKings points on 9.9 targets per game. He has a tough matchup against slot cornerback Marlon Humphrey, but in Week 4, Landry went off against the Ravens with an 8-167-0 performance on 10 targets.

D.K. Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks ($5,900 DK, $6,300 FD): Metcalf has just one fantasy WR1 game this season, and he’s slated for a shadow matchup with cornerback Patrick Peterson, but the former All-Pro defender has allowed a 72.0% catch rate this year, and the Cardinals are No. 32 in PFF coverage grade. Metcalf leads the league with 15 end-zone targets and has averaged seven targets per game since tight end Will Dissly (Achilles) suffered a season-ending injury in Week 6.

Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals ($5,800 DK, $6,300 FD): A less inspiring version of Keenan Allen, Boyd had just 26 yards last week, but he’s No. 11 in the league with nine targets per game. The Dolphins have allowed the fourth-most FanDuel points per game to opposing wide receivers with 33.3.

Odell Beckham Jr., Cleveland Browns ($5,800 DK, $6,700 FD): Beckham has just two 100-yard games and two touchdowns this year, and the Ravens are No. 4 in pass defense DVOA, but OBJ had 13 targets last week, and he’s No. 8 in the league with 128.7 air yards and yards after the catch per game. Beckham could have a sub-1% ownership rate, and he hasn’t been as cheap as $5,800 on DraftKings since Week 10 of his rookie season in 2014.

Robby Anderson, New York Jets ($5,700 DK, $6,100 FD): Over the past month, Anderson has caught fire, averaging 19.8 DraftKings points, 92.5 yards and 0.5 touchdowns on eight targets per game. Anderson has scored a touchdown in 39.1% of his 23 games with quarterback Sam Darnold, and in those games he’s averaged 21.5 DraftKings points. The Steelers are No. 5 in pass defense DVOA, but Anderson’s odds of scoring a touchdown down seem higher than his likely sub-5% ownership rate in tournaments.

Christian Kirk, Arizona Cardinals ($5,600 DK, $5,900 FD): For the past six games, Kirk has played primarily wide to the right, and No. 1 cornerback Shaquill Griffin (hamstring) lines up on the left, but he missed Week 14 and is uncertain for this week. Backup cornerback Akeem King is a career special-teamer who has allowed an 84.6% catch rate this year. Since returning from injury in Week 8, Kirk has averaged eight targets per game.

Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys ($5,500 DK, $6,500 FD): In the seven games since the Week 8 bye, Gallup leads the team with 55 targets, 490 yards receiving and 818 air yards and yards after the catch. Gallup had just 34 scoreless yards against the Eagles in Week 7, but the Eagles have allowed the second-most DraftKings points to opposing wide receivers with 41.9 per game.

Darius Slayton, New York Giants ($5,500 DK, $6,000 FD): In his three full games as the No. 3 wide receiver behind Golden Tate and Sterling Shepard, the rookie Slayton has averaged 19.1 DraftKings points. The Redskins are dealing with multiple injuries at cornerback, and they are No. 24 in pass defense DVOA against supplementary wide receivers.

Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New York Giants wide receiver Darius Slayton (86).

Jamison Crowder, New York Jets ($5,400 DK, $6,000 FD): Crowder had a 6-90-2 receiving performance last week on 11 targets, and in his 11 games with quarterback Sam Darnold, he has averaged 13.8 DraftKings points on 8.2 targets. The Steelers are No. 6 in PFF coverage grade, but Crowder has been no worse than a high-end fantasy WR2 in five Darnold games.

James Washington, Pittsburgh Steelers ($5,300 DK, $6,600 FD): No. 1 wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee) has missed the past four games and is uncertain for Week 16. In his absence, Washington has averaged 15.9 DraftKings points, 81.3 yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game. The Jets have a funnel defense that ranks No. 2 against the run but No. 24 against the pass in DVOA.

Danny Amendola, Detroit Lions ($4,900 DK, $6,000 FD): Without teammate Marvin Jones (ankle, IR), Amendola was 8-102-0 receiving on a season-high 13 targets, and he should serve as the No. 2 receiver again this week. Despite averaging just 10.5 DraftKings points per game, Amendola has been no worse than a high-end fantasy WR2 in four games.

Golden Tate, New York Giants ($4,800 DK, $6,200 FD): Quarterback Daniel Jones (ankle) is expected to return to the starting lineup this week, and Tate has averaged 15.7 DraftKings points on 8.1 targets per game with Jones. Slot cornerback Jimmy Moreland (foot, IR) is out for the season, and slot-turned-perimeter corner Fabian Moreay (hamstring) missed practice on Wednesday, so Tate will likely be going against a backup this week.

Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers ($4,700 DK, $5,700 FD): Without No. 1 wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee), Johnson has averaged 6.5 target per game over the past month, and for the year, Johnson has three fantasy WR1 performances. The Jets are No. 27 in pass defense DVOA against No. 2 receivers.

Greg Ward Jr., Philadelphia Eagles ($4,200 DK, $5,700 FD): No. 1 wide receiver Alshon Jeffery (foot, IR) is out for the year, and No. 2 wide receiver Nelson Agholor (knee) has missed the past two weeks and is uncertain to play. In the Agholor-less and mostly Alshon-less Weeks 12 & 14-15, Ward has averaged 12.2 DraftKings points on 8.3 targets per game.

John Ross, Cincinnati Bengals ($4,200 DK, $5,200 FD): Ross has only three targets per game since returning from injury in Week 14, but he flashed to open the season with back-to-back games of 100-plus yards and a touchdown, and the Dolphins are No. 31 in PFF coverage grade.

Albert Wilson, Miami Dolphins ($3,800 DK, $5,400 FD): In his five full weeks without teammate Preston Williams (knee, IR), Wilson has averaged 5.8 targets per game, and last week he had a season-high eight targets. The Bengals are No. 27 in pass defense DVOA and without No. 1 cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick (knee, IR).

Keelan Cole, Jacksonville Jaguars ($3,600 DK, $5,400 FD): With No. 1 wide receiver D.J. Chark (ankle) missed last week and is uncertain for this week. If Chark is out, Cole will once again play in three-wide sets. In his two games this year with a snap rate of at least 60%, Cole has averaged 11.8 DraftKings points and 78 yards on six targets per game. The Falcons are No. 27 in pass defense DVOA against supplementary wide receivers.

FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns

For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network. For updates, see our FantasyLabs News Feed.



Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.

Pictured above: Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Mike Williams (81)
Photo credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

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Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. The only edge he has in anything is his knowledge of '90s music.