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MLB DFS 5/1/16 Slate Breakdown

Let’s do this.

Vegas

 

 

Pitchers

Noah Syndergaard, NYM

Either Syndergaard or Clayton Kershaw will work for today, and the former is $3,300 less expensive. Also, his batted-ball distance differential is also 21 feet less than Kershaw’s over their last two starts. I lean toward Kershaw in tournaments if only because his ownership is likely to be lower — due to recency bias and an increased salary — but Syndergaard at least has peripherals close enough to Kershaw’s to warrant being rolled out in cash confidently.

Danny Salazar, CLE 

Though Salazar, typically a strikeout pitcher, isn’t weighed properly given the surrounding aces at his position, Philadelphia’s projected lineup is averaging a whopping .284 SO/AB. He’s also only one of three pitchers who has allowed a single-digit line-drive percentage over the last two weeks (Carlos Martinez and Chris Sale being the others). If anything, he is a value in a sea of whales, as he still has the highest Bargain Rating (93 percent) at FanDuel.

Rich Hill, OAK

Hill might be 83 years old in pitching-years, but he has a slate-high 12 SO/9 and is facing an Astros offense whiffing at everything (or, 25.4 percent of pitches thrown by lefties). Their .357 Weighted On-Base Average(wOBA) vs. said handedness is top-six in the majors, but Hill at least offers astronomical strikeout Upside that even most pitchers priced above $10,000 don’t often have. Additionally, note his .497 HR/9, which are the fewest allowed over the last year.

Pitchers to Exploit

Shelby Miller, ARI

The “Award for Most Obvious Exploitable Pitcher” once again goes to Miller, whose batted-ball air time remains the highest in the slate. He’s also tied for the highest fly-ball percentage allowed in his last two starts. If you want to get cute and roster him (if only because 99.9 percent of all DFS players will be fading him), then by all means do so, but you’re better off stacking Charlie Blackmon-Trevor Story-Carlos Gonzalez-Nolan Arenado than swimming upstream.

Mike Pelfrey, DET

Pelfrey walks everyone (as shown by his 1.65 WHIP), strikes out no one (as shown by his 4.60 SO/9), gets hit hard (as shown by his exit velocity allowed of 94 miles per hour), and was probably who Run the Jewels was speaking to when they said “Oh my, don’t cry” after one of his starts. Even the Twins’ lackluster offense shouldn’t have an issue thriving tonight.

John Lackey, CHC

I admittedly should’ve pointed it out prior to his last start, but the signs were there for Lackey to implode eventually. Despite averaging 23.4 DraftKings points in his first three outings, Lackey had a bottom-three batted-ball distance. The Braves offense may be “bullshit” (as our own Matthew Freedman would say), but most DFS players are still likely to roster Lackey (thinking that his last start was a fluke). Instead, they should stack against him, at least in tournaments.

C

Jarrod Saltalamacchia, DET

Ricky Nolasco has produced back-to-back quality starts, but he has also allowed 1.46 HR/9 to left-handed batters this season. If Saltalamacchia, the only player in the majors averaging an exit velocity of 100 MPH over the last two weeks, can’t flourish, then you’ll be hard-pressed to find anyone who can.

1B

Byung-ho Park, MIN

Projected to bat fifth for Minnesota, Park has a batted-ball distance (239 feet) and exit velocity (94 MPH) that have quietly crept into the top six among first basemen over the last two weeks. With a whopping Isolated Power (ISO) Differential of .352, he is more than just a tournament play at FanDuel (where he has an 87 percent Bargain Rating).

Justin Bour, MIA

With Miami projected to score the third-most runs tonight, the top of their order makes for a terrific stack in tournaments. Said stack can confidently end with Bour in the five hole, as his ISO Differential (.185) is second only to Park’s at the position.

2B

Jace Peterson, ATL

Peterson’s exit velocity in his last six starts is actually comparable to that of Neil Walker (who continues to hit the ball harder than any other second baseman). Though expected to continue batting seventh for the Braves, Peterson is a viable tournament option for DFS players stacking against Lackey.

Brian Dozier, MIN

Dozier’s contact admittedly hasn’t been as solid as that of other second basemen, but he does have a top-five FB% in the cohort. That peripheral metric alone makes him cash-eligible at FanDuel, where he has an absurd Bargain Rating of 95 percent.

3B

Derek Dietrich, MIA

Dietrich, filling in for Dee Gordon over the next few months, has unexpectedly been elevated to the leadoff spot in Miami’s batting order. That and his offensively low $2,100 salary at FanDuel make him arguably the top cash option at his position.

Eugenio Saurez, CIN

Suarez is always an option against lefties, if only because of his slugging percentage of .557. With a salary $900 more than Dietrich’s, Suarez will likely be criminally under-rostered in tournaments. The wind blowing out to left field makes him an even stronger option.

SS

Troy Tulowitzki, TOR 

Tulowitzki’s 243-foot batted-ball distance is likely to come in handy against Jake Odorizzi’s slate-high batted-ball distance allowed. Tulo’s a fine option in cash and tournaments alike.

OF

Enrique “Kike” Hernandez, LAD

It’s just another day in which Hernandez will likely lead off against a lefty. With his .780 slugging percentage and 11 Pro Trends, he’s arguably the strongest play of the slate.

Khris Davis, OAK

Suddenly christened as Oakland’s cleanup hitter, Davis should benefit from facing Doug Fister and his 1.45 HR/9. Davis is a vital part of any Athletics stack and is a fine option in cash games as well, on account of his positive wOBA and ISO Differentials of .029/.042.

Miguel Sano, MIN

Featured in yesterday’s article, Sano is an even stronger option today against Mike Pelfrey. Note Sano’s batted-ball distance (252 feet) and exit velocity (95 mph), both of which are top-four among outfielders.

Justin Upton, DET

Although demoted to fifth in Detroit’s batting order, Upton has turned the corner with a hard-hit differential of 10 percentage points. Opposing Ricky Nalasco, he’s terrific tournament option, if only for his declining salary ($2,800) at FanDuel.

Weather Watch

Be sure to monitor Mets-Giants, as that looks bad. Light rain is expected throughout the White Sox-Orioles game, but it might not be enough to cancel the game entirely. Still, it needs to be monitored closely, as Chris Sale’s salary virtually depends on it. Indians-Phillies, on the other hand, should be delayed for only a minimal amount of time. And although there should be showers throughout the day in Boston, there’s only a 35 percent chance of rain for Yankees-Red Sox in the evening.

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Let’s do this.

Vegas

 

 

Pitchers

Noah Syndergaard, NYM

Either Syndergaard or Clayton Kershaw will work for today, and the former is $3,300 less expensive. Also, his batted-ball distance differential is also 21 feet less than Kershaw’s over their last two starts. I lean toward Kershaw in tournaments if only because his ownership is likely to be lower — due to recency bias and an increased salary — but Syndergaard at least has peripherals close enough to Kershaw’s to warrant being rolled out in cash confidently.

Danny Salazar, CLE 

Though Salazar, typically a strikeout pitcher, isn’t weighed properly given the surrounding aces at his position, Philadelphia’s projected lineup is averaging a whopping .284 SO/AB. He’s also only one of three pitchers who has allowed a single-digit line-drive percentage over the last two weeks (Carlos Martinez and Chris Sale being the others). If anything, he is a value in a sea of whales, as he still has the highest Bargain Rating (93 percent) at FanDuel.

Rich Hill, OAK

Hill might be 83 years old in pitching-years, but he has a slate-high 12 SO/9 and is facing an Astros offense whiffing at everything (or, 25.4 percent of pitches thrown by lefties). Their .357 Weighted On-Base Average(wOBA) vs. said handedness is top-six in the majors, but Hill at least offers astronomical strikeout Upside that even most pitchers priced above $10,000 don’t often have. Additionally, note his .497 HR/9, which are the fewest allowed over the last year.

Pitchers to Exploit

Shelby Miller, ARI

The “Award for Most Obvious Exploitable Pitcher” once again goes to Miller, whose batted-ball air time remains the highest in the slate. He’s also tied for the highest fly-ball percentage allowed in his last two starts. If you want to get cute and roster him (if only because 99.9 percent of all DFS players will be fading him), then by all means do so, but you’re better off stacking Charlie Blackmon-Trevor Story-Carlos Gonzalez-Nolan Arenado than swimming upstream.

Mike Pelfrey, DET

Pelfrey walks everyone (as shown by his 1.65 WHIP), strikes out no one (as shown by his 4.60 SO/9), gets hit hard (as shown by his exit velocity allowed of 94 miles per hour), and was probably who Run the Jewels was speaking to when they said “Oh my, don’t cry” after one of his starts. Even the Twins’ lackluster offense shouldn’t have an issue thriving tonight.

John Lackey, CHC

I admittedly should’ve pointed it out prior to his last start, but the signs were there for Lackey to implode eventually. Despite averaging 23.4 DraftKings points in his first three outings, Lackey had a bottom-three batted-ball distance. The Braves offense may be “bullshit” (as our own Matthew Freedman would say), but most DFS players are still likely to roster Lackey (thinking that his last start was a fluke). Instead, they should stack against him, at least in tournaments.

C

Jarrod Saltalamacchia, DET

Ricky Nolasco has produced back-to-back quality starts, but he has also allowed 1.46 HR/9 to left-handed batters this season. If Saltalamacchia, the only player in the majors averaging an exit velocity of 100 MPH over the last two weeks, can’t flourish, then you’ll be hard-pressed to find anyone who can.

1B

Byung-ho Park, MIN

Projected to bat fifth for Minnesota, Park has a batted-ball distance (239 feet) and exit velocity (94 MPH) that have quietly crept into the top six among first basemen over the last two weeks. With a whopping Isolated Power (ISO) Differential of .352, he is more than just a tournament play at FanDuel (where he has an 87 percent Bargain Rating).

Justin Bour, MIA

With Miami projected to score the third-most runs tonight, the top of their order makes for a terrific stack in tournaments. Said stack can confidently end with Bour in the five hole, as his ISO Differential (.185) is second only to Park’s at the position.

2B

Jace Peterson, ATL

Peterson’s exit velocity in his last six starts is actually comparable to that of Neil Walker (who continues to hit the ball harder than any other second baseman). Though expected to continue batting seventh for the Braves, Peterson is a viable tournament option for DFS players stacking against Lackey.

Brian Dozier, MIN

Dozier’s contact admittedly hasn’t been as solid as that of other second basemen, but he does have a top-five FB% in the cohort. That peripheral metric alone makes him cash-eligible at FanDuel, where he has an absurd Bargain Rating of 95 percent.

3B

Derek Dietrich, MIA

Dietrich, filling in for Dee Gordon over the next few months, has unexpectedly been elevated to the leadoff spot in Miami’s batting order. That and his offensively low $2,100 salary at FanDuel make him arguably the top cash option at his position.

Eugenio Saurez, CIN

Suarez is always an option against lefties, if only because of his slugging percentage of .557. With a salary $900 more than Dietrich’s, Suarez will likely be criminally under-rostered in tournaments. The wind blowing out to left field makes him an even stronger option.

SS

Troy Tulowitzki, TOR 

Tulowitzki’s 243-foot batted-ball distance is likely to come in handy against Jake Odorizzi’s slate-high batted-ball distance allowed. Tulo’s a fine option in cash and tournaments alike.

OF

Enrique “Kike” Hernandez, LAD

It’s just another day in which Hernandez will likely lead off against a lefty. With his .780 slugging percentage and 11 Pro Trends, he’s arguably the strongest play of the slate.

Khris Davis, OAK

Suddenly christened as Oakland’s cleanup hitter, Davis should benefit from facing Doug Fister and his 1.45 HR/9. Davis is a vital part of any Athletics stack and is a fine option in cash games as well, on account of his positive wOBA and ISO Differentials of .029/.042.

Miguel Sano, MIN

Featured in yesterday’s article, Sano is an even stronger option today against Mike Pelfrey. Note Sano’s batted-ball distance (252 feet) and exit velocity (95 mph), both of which are top-four among outfielders.

Justin Upton, DET

Although demoted to fifth in Detroit’s batting order, Upton has turned the corner with a hard-hit differential of 10 percentage points. Opposing Ricky Nalasco, he’s terrific tournament option, if only for his declining salary ($2,800) at FanDuel.

Weather Watch

Be sure to monitor Mets-Giants, as that looks bad. Light rain is expected throughout the White Sox-Orioles game, but it might not be enough to cancel the game entirely. Still, it needs to be monitored closely, as Chris Sale’s salary virtually depends on it. Indians-Phillies, on the other hand, should be delayed for only a minimal amount of time. And although there should be showers throughout the day in Boston, there’s only a 35 percent chance of rain for Yankees-Red Sox in the evening.

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No related posts.