The Week 16 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Dec. 22, at 1 p.m. ET. In this piece, I highlight the quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical DFS Tools, most specifically our industry-leading FantasyLabs Models.
Top Quarterbacks in the FantasyLabs Models
There are four quarterbacks atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.
- Lamar Jackson: $8,000 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel
- Russell Wilson: $7,000 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel
- Philip Rivers: $5,700 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel
- Dwayne Haskins: $4,700 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel
Odds as of Tuesday night and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
Lamar Jackson: Baltimore Ravens (-10) at Cleveland Browns, 48.5 Over/Under
In a year filled with fantastic performances, last week Jackson had his best game of the season on Thursday Night Football: An MVP-clinching, five-touchdown throwdown that saw him break Michael Vick’s single-season rushing record.
If you went against L-Jax in Week 15 and survived, your season-long team must be the balls.
In only one game this year has Jackson scored fewer than 20-plus FanDuel points or not been a fantasy QB1 (per RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).
His Konami Code floor is higher than almost any other quarterback’s ceiling. Jackson is No. 1 among all quarterbacks with 11.5 carries and 2.0 red-zone carries per game (per Player Profiler).
The Ravens are No. 1 with 33.7 points per game, and Jackson is No. 1 in ESPN’s Total QBR with a mark of 81.3.
No quarterback in NFL history has ever had 3,000 passing and 1,000 rushing yards in the same season. Jackson is on pace for 3,301.7 and 1,260.6. He’s doing what no quarterback has done in the modern era.
For the season, he’s easily the No. 1 fantasy quarterback with 28.0 FanDuel points per game. No quarterback has provided more value than Jackson has with his +9.93 Plus/Minus, and he has hit salary-based expectations in every game but one.
As a favorite, Jackson is on the positive side of his career splits (per our FantasyLabs Trends Tool).
- Favorite (16 starts): 26.2 FanDuel points | +8.59 Plus/Minus | 93.8% Consistency Rating
- Underdog (six starts): 20.7 FanDuel points | +3.70 Plus/Minus | 83.3% Consistency Rating
There’s nothing especially notable about Jackson’s matchup. The Browns have a middle-of-the-road defense that ranks No. 21 in coverage grade (per Pro Football Focus).
But the Browns defense is not at full capacity right now. Defensive end Myles Garrett (suspension) is out for the rest of the season. Defensive end Olivier Vernon (knee) has missed the past two games. Linebacker Christian Kirksey (chest, IR) and strong safety Morgan Burnett (Achilles, IR) are out. Slot corner Eric Murray (knee) hasn’t played since Week 8.
No. 1 wide receiver Marquise Brown has a tough matchup against cornerback Denzel Ward, who has allowed a catch rate of just 45.6% this year and is becoming a star.
But Jackson isn’t reliant on any one receiver for his production, and even if Jackson does struggle through the air, he should be able to get his points on the ground. The Browns are No. 28 in PFF run defense grade, while the Ravens are No. 1 in the league with a 55.4% rush rate and 55% rush success rate (per Sharp Football Stats).
One way or another, Jackson is highly likely to produce. In his two career starts against the Browns, he’s averaged 26.4 FanDuel points, 213 yards and 1.5 touchdowns passing and 78 yards and one touchdown rushing per game (per RotoViz Game Splits App).
Jackson is the No. 1 quarterback in our Week 16 fantasy football rankings and the top option in the CSURAM88 Model for FanDuel, where Jackson has position-high median and ceiling projections.
Russell Wilson: Seattle Seahawks (-9.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals, 50.5 O/U
Wilson was incredibly hot to start the season, playing like a true MVP candidate for the first six weeks of the season with a Lamar-esque 25.9 FanDuel points per game, but over the past two months, he’s regressed.
Since Week 7, Wilson has been the No. 14 fantasy quarterback with an average of 18.4 FanDuel points per game.
That’s not awful, but at this point, no one is arguing that Wilson should be the NFL MVP.
But this week there’s a lot to like about Wilson.
The Seahawks have a slate-high 30.5-point implied Vegas total, and they are at home, where Wilson has had notable splits in the post-Marshawn Lynch era (since 2016).
- Home (32 games): 22.2 FanDuel points, +4.59 Plus/Minus, 62.5% Consistency Rating
- Away (35 games): 18.2 FanDuel points, +0.66 Plus/Minus, 54.3% Consistency Rating
More importantly, he has the slate’s best matchup. The Cardinals have allowed a league-high 23.9 FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks, and they are No. 32 in PFF coverage grade.
I cannot overstate how good this spot is for Wilson. Even though the Cardinals have a three-time All-Pro defender in cornerback Patrick Peterson, he has massively regressed this year and allowed a 72.0% catch rate.
Plus, Peterson rarely plays in the slot anyway, so he’s unlikely to be on No. 1 wide receiver Tyler Lockett for most of the game. Instead of Peterson, rookie cornerback Byron Murphy will be tasked with defending Lockett, and I doubt he will be successful. Murphy has some long-term potential, but he has allowed an NFL-high nine touchdowns in his coverage and is the league’s fourth-most attacked cornerback with 91 targets. He’s an utter liability.
And on the perimeter across from Peterson, the Cardinals will likely use cornerback Chris Jones — the third guy to start opposite Peterson in a month. An undrafted second-year special-teamer with limited NFL coverage experience, Jones is likely to be exploitable.
The primary concern with Wilson is not matchup but game script. The Seahawks are inclined to run the ball anyway, ranking No. 4 with a 46.9% rush rate, and as big home favorites, they could heavily rely on the ground game if they get out to a lead.
Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson (3).
In Week 4 against the Cardinals, Wilson had a 78.6% completion rate in a 27-10 victory, but he had just 14.3 FanDuel points on 28 pass attempts and two carries. He could go off, but he could also get game-scripted out of the contest.
With his usage concerns and high salary, Wilson is someone I’d avoid in cash games, but for guaranteed prize pools he’s an enticing option: Wilson is No. 1 in the league with 51 end-zone attempts and No. 2 with 79 attempts of 20-plus yards. When Wilson throws, he goes deep and looks to score. His tournament upside is obvious.
Team-specific production patterns can be analyzed with our FantasyLabs Correlations Tool, and Wilson and Lockett have had a 0.68 correlation in production over the past year. If Wilson has a big game, Lockett probably will too. For GPPs, use our Lineup Builder to stack Wilson with Lockett.
Wilson is popping all over the place this week. He’s No. 1 in the Bales, Levitan, Koerner, Raybon, SportsGeek and Freedman Models for FanDuel, where he has a position-high +4.35 Projected Plus/Minus.
And Wilson is also the top option in the Bales, CSURAM88, Koerner, Raybon and SportsGeek Models for DraftKings, where he leads all quarterbacks with his floor projection and seven Pro Trends.
Philip Rivers: Los Angeles Chargers (-6) vs. Oakland Raiders, 45.5 O/U
I’m far from a Rivers stan — his ability to create late-game turnovers out of thin air is magically devious — but he’s No. 3 with six 300-yard, multi-touchdown passing games this year, and he has one of the league’s best pass-catching quartets in wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, tight end Hunter Henry and running back Austin Ekeler.
Rivers has a basement-level floor, but he’s been no worse than a high-end fantasy QB2 in seven of 14 games.
What he has going for him this week is the matchup. Rivers disappointed against the Raiders in Week 10, passing for just 207 yards and three interceptions to two touchdowns — again, he has a low floor — but the Raiders have allowed the third-most DraftKings points to quarterbacks with 23.4 per game and are No. 31 in pass defense DVOA (per Football Outsiders).
Specifically, the Raiders are No. 29 against No. 1 wide receivers, No. 31 against No. 2 receivers and No. 31 against running backs. Allen, Williams and Ekeler could gift 300 yards to Rivers all on their own.
And they might be without No. 1 cornerback Daryl Worley (neck), who missed Week 15 and didn’t practice at any point during the week.
From a betting perspective, I like the Chargers-Raiders under. Since they moved to Los Angeles in 2017 and started playing at the small StubHub Center — now Dignity Health Sports Park — the Chargers have been one of the league’s most under-friendly home teams with a 14-7 record (per our Bet Labs database).
The Chargers could fail to put up points, and Rivers is not someone I like for cash games, but a 300-yard, multi-touchdown game is easily within his range of outcomes.
Rivers is the No. 1 quarterback in the Freedman Model for DraftKings, where he offers an 83% Bargain Rating.
Dwayne Haskins: Washington Redskins (-2.5) vs. New York Giants, 42 O/U
“I also like to live dangerously.” Not even Austin Powers would want to roster Haskins this weekend, but he’s worth a shot in tournaments.
He’s the cheapest starting quarterback on DraftKings at $4,700, and yet he’s facing a Giants funnel defense that ranks No. 8 against the run but No. 30 against the pass in DVOA.
Much of this season has been a disaster for Haskins.
But last week he had the first fantasy QB1 performance of his career against an exploitable Eagles secondary, and his matchup this week is better.
Last week the Giants cut No. 1 cornerback Janoris Jenkins because of off-the-field issues, so now they have a starting cornerback trio of DeAndre Baker, Sam Beal and Corey Ballentine.
Not one of these guys has even a year’s worth of NFL playing experience.
Baker has the position’s third-worst stat line with 712 yards and seven touchdowns allowed. Beal has allowed a 69.2% catch rate in his two NFL starts. And Ballentine’s 34.4 PFF coverage grade is the worst mark of any starting corner. All three of these players are exploitable.
Over the past two months, the Giants have allowed quarterbacks to rack up 23.7 DraftKings points per game.
Haskins in cash games? “There are older and fouler things than Orcs in the deep places of the world.” Gandalf says to go for it. I’m thinking about it. At his price, he offers a lot of roster flexibility and upside.
Haskins is the No. 1 quarterback in the Levitan Model for DraftKings, where he has a position-high 98% Bargain Rating.
Upside Quarterbacks for Guaranteed Prize Pools
Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints ($6,900 DK, $8,200 FD): Since returning from injury in Week 8, Brees has been the No. 4 fantasy quarterback with 24.8 DraftKings points per game. The Titans have a funnel defense that ranks No. 5 against the run but No. 22 against the pass in DVOA, and perimeter cornerbacks Malcolm Butler (wrist, IR) and Adoree’ Jackson (foot) are both injured. Brees trails only Russell Wilson with his six Pro Trends on DraftKings.
Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans ($6,600 DK, $7,800 FD): Since becoming the starter in Week 7, Tannehill has been the No. 4 fantasy quarterback with 22.9 FanDuel points per game, and he leads the league with 9.1 adjusted yards per attempt. The Titans-Saints game has a slate-high 50.5-point over/under, and Tanny has a position-high 65% Bargain Rating on FanDuel.
Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tennessee Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill (17).
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys ($6,400 DK, $8,000 FD): Dak has 20-plus DraftKings points in nine of 14 games this year, and the Cowboys beat the Eagles 37-10 in Week 7. The Eagles allowed 20.0 DraftKings points to rookie Dwayne Haskins last week, and in his three games against the Eagles with wide receiver Amari Cooper, Dak has averaged 24.6 DraftKings points.
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons ($6,200 DK, $7,700 FD): The Falcons lead the league with a 67.4% pass play rate, and Ryan leads the slate with seven 300-yard, multi-touchdown games this year. A formerly feared unit, the Jaguars defense is No. 30 in PFF coverage grade.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Miami Dolphins ($6,000 DK, $7,400 FD): FitzMagic has averaged 20.2 DraftKings points per game since returning to the starting lineup in Week 7, and the Bengals are No. 27 in pass defense DVOA and without No. 1 cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick (knee, IR).
Drew Lock, Denver Broncos ($5,600 DK, $7,300 FD): Lock followed up his 300-yard, three-touchdown performance in Week 14 with a weather-impacted game of 7.6 DraftKings points last week, but he’s in a good bounceback spot. The Lions have allowed an NFL-high 488 air yards and yards after the catch combined per game to opposing teams (per AirYards.com).
Gardner Minshew, Jacksonville Jaguars ($5,500 DK, $6,800 FD): Minshew has just 16.2 DraftKings points per game since returning to the starting lineup two weeks ago, but wide receiver D.J. Chark (ankle) has been cleared to return to practice, so he might play this week. The Falcons have allowed the fifth-most FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks with 21.6, and they are without No. 1 cornerback Desmond Trufant (arm, IR).
Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals ($5,200 DK, $7,100 FD): Last week didn’t go well for Dalton, who threw four interceptions against the Patriots, but this week he gets the Dolphins, who are No. 32 in pass defense DVOA have allowed the fourth-most FanDuel points to quarterbacks with 21.7 per game.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
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Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
Pictured above: Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson (3)
Photo credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured
