Let’s get to it.

Vegas

 

Pitchers

Jacob deGrom, NYM 

Those box score hunting will immediately notice deGrom’s rather poor performance of 15.95 DraftKings points in his last start. What many might forget, however, was his noted innings limit beforehand. Now expected to be a full go, his whopping 14 Pro Trends all but seal his inevitable place atop cash games; that many Pro Trends has historically led to a Plus/Minus of +5.78. The Giants are also projected to score the fewest runs in this slate.

Jaime Garcia, STL

The Nationals have produced a top-three ISO vs. LHP this season, but Garcia’s HR/9 rate is the lowest tonight. Despite being pelted in his last outing, his batted-ball distance allowed is also the lowest over his last two starts. He’s certainly worth a flier at FanDuel where his salary sits at a reduced cost of $8,300.

Ross Stripling, LAD

Stripling would typically offer very little upside strikeout-wise (as shown by his lowly K/9 average of 6.29), but all righties tend to reap rewards against the Padres — their 25.7% strikeout percentage against said handedness qualifies as top four. If anything, he’s considered a valuable option (92% Bargain Rating at DraftKings) that’s allowed only .421 HR/9 over the last 12 months.

Pitchers to Exploit

Michael Pineda, NYY

Pineda’s batted-ball distance allowed is actually 41 feet further than David Ortiz’s batted-ball distance. Boston’s top-three slugging percentage against right-handed pitching should easily be able to exploit Pineda, who’s additionally allowed the longest batted-ball air time (3.54 seconds) in the last 15 days.

Chris Rusin, COL

The Rockies thought they were awarding Rusin by handing him his first start of 2016, but he now has to oppose an Arizona offense with the highest ISO vs. LHP. Lefties have also historically produced a Plus/Minus of -1.26 when pitching at Chase Field. Oh yes, there will be blood.

Alfredo Simon, CIN

No pitcher has been hit harder over his last two starts, as shown by Simon’s exit velocity of 96 mph. He’s projected to allow the most runs tonight for a reason.

C

Welington Castillo, ARI

Castillo has a Hard-Hit Differential of 16% over the last 15 days. He’ll also benefit from the 7 mph wind blowing out to left field (assuming Arizona opts to leave their roof open).

1B

Edwin Encarnacion, TOR

Toronto is projected to score only 3.5 runs, but Encarnacion’s exit velocity remains top five among first basemen. Given their lowly implied total, it’s a terrific tournament spot for him as he still has a slugging percentage of .590 vs. RHP.

Ryan Howard, PHI

Priced at only $2,100 on FanDuel, note Howard’s wOBA and ISO Differentials of .136/.086. Trevor Bauer has obvious strikeout upside, but he also allowed 1.24 HR/9 to left-handed batters just last year.

2B

Logan Forsythe, TB

Forsythe’s .191 ISO Differential is the highest among second basemen. Additionally slated with a hard-hit percentage in the top three, Forsythe is arguably the strongest option (and certainly cash eligible) at his position.

Dustin Pedroia, BOS

Pedroia has quietly been hitting the ball further and harder as of late, as proven by his Distance and Hard-Hit Differentials of 18 feet and 10%, respectively. Despite being tagged with the worst Weather Rating tonight, he’s a pivotal option if stacking the Red Sox at home.

3B

Derek Dietrich, MIA

Dietrich started at second base Friday night in Miami’s first game without Dee Gordon. If that’s the plan moving forward, he needs to be rostered each and every night at FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 97%. This holds true especially in this slate as his standout wOBA and ISO Differentials (.142/.172) are set to oppose a soft-tossing righty.

Brandon Drury, ARI

Projected to bat second in the strongest cash stack of the night, Drury’s .563 slugging percentage trails only Nolan Arenado among third basemen. Note his accessible salary of $2,700 at FanDuel.

SS

Zack Cozart, CIN

Typically leading off for Cincinnati, Cozart’s .426 wOBA is quietly the highest among shortstops. The Reds are projected to score only 3.3 runs, which actually bodes well for his ownership in tournaments.

OF

Carlos Gonzalez, COL

I worry less about Gonzalez’s performance over his last 11 games and tend to focus more on his minuscule batted-ball distance (187 feet) in that span. Even so, he’s certainly a viable tournament option as he’s historically produced four home runs in 28 at-bats against Zack Greinke.

Jacoby Ellsbury, NYY

Although Michael Pineda is better to exploit in cash games, turning the tables on Rick Porcello seems like the approach for tournaments. That begins with Ellsbury, who remains all too cheap at DraftKings (where he has a 93% Bargain Rating). His .162 steals per game (top 10 among outfielders) allow him to exceed salary-based expectations in other ways, as well.

Mike Trout, LAA

Slugging .609 vs. LHP, Trout’s batted-ball distance has suddenly crept into the top eight among outfielders. He’s a viable option in both cash and tournaments given his .315 average vs. Derek Holland over his career.

Weather Watch

Marlins-Brewers has a 76% chance of inclement weather but can obviously opt to close the roof. Instead, Reds-Pirates should be monitored throughout the morning, though only showers are expected after first pitch (leaving all their hitters in play).

Good luck!