The Week 15 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Dec. 15, at 1 p.m. ET. In this piece, I highlight the tight ends who stand out in our large suite of analytical DFS Tools, most specifically our industry-leading FantasyLabs Models.
Top Tight Ends in the FantasyLabs Models
There are four tight ends atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.
- George Kittle: $6,200 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel
- Darren Waller: $5,500 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel
- Irv Smith Jr.: $2,900 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
- Anthony Firkser: $2,700 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
Odds as of Friday afternoon and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
George Kittle: San Francisco 49ers (-10.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons, 48 Over/Under
Kittle has dealt with various leg injuries for much of the season, but he’s practiced in full this week, and if his game-altering fourth-and-2 defensive back-carrying 39-yard reception near the end of regulation last week is any indication, Kittle is healthy enough to dominate.
Since returning from injury in Week 12, Kittle has averaged 16.7 DraftKings points, 71 yards and 0.67 touchdowns on 4.7 receptions and six targets per game. While greater target volume would be nice, Kittle is still getting the job done.
There’s no point in pretending that his year-over-year production isn’t down (per our FantasyLabs Trends Tool).
- 2018 (16 games): 16.9 DraftKings points, +5.47 Plus/Minus, 68.8% Consistency Rating
- 2019 (11 games): 15.2 DraftKings points, +1.54 Plus/Minus, 54.5% Consistency Rating
But Kittle had an all-time great season in 2018. He was always likely to regress. And it’s not as if his scoring is down all that much: It’s just that he’s now much more expensive than he was for much of 2018.
For the season, he’s the No. 3 fantasy tight end with 15.2 DraftKings points per game and No. 5 at the position with 85.2 air yards and yards after the catch combined per game (per AirYards.com).
In nine of 11 games, Kittle has been no worse than a high-end fantasy TE2, and in six games, he’s been a top-tier fantasy TE1 (per RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).
There’s nothing special about Kittle’s matchup: The Saints are No. 11 in pass defense DVOA against tight ends (per Football Outsiders).
But the Falcons are without Pro-Bowl strong safety Keanu Neal (Achilles, IR), and last week against the Panthers, they allowed backup tight end Ian Thomas to go for 5-57-1 receiving on 10 targets. Plus, Kittle is pretty much a matchup-proof player anyway.
I tend to prefer the strategy of paying down at the position in cash games, but Kittle is in play in all formats: The 49ers have a slate-high 29.75-point implied Vegas total.
Kittle is the No. 1 tight end in the Bales, CSURAM88 and Raybon Model for DraftKings, where he has a position-high nine Pro Trends.
Darren Waller: Oakland Raiders (-6.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, 45.5 O/U
There’s a lot to like about Waller.
Slot receiver Hunter Renfrow (ribs) has missed the past two weeks and seems unlikely to play this weekend. In his absence, Waller has averaged 86 yards on 7.5 targets and 6.5 receptions per game.
For the year, Waller is No. 6 with 84.2 air yards and yards after the catch and No. 7 with 10.8 FanDuel points per game. He leads the position with three 100-yard games.
In his first season as a full-time tight end, Waller is having a great campaign. He leads the team with 93 targets, 72 receptions, 879 yards receiving and 1,093 air yards and yards after the catch combined. The passing offense flows through him.
At a position marked by inconsistency, Waller is yet to score fewer than 5.0 FanDuel points in any game this year.
That number might not seem all that high as a floor, but Travis Kelce is the only other tight to clear that mark in every game played.
And I really like his matchup. Despite their formerly fearsome reputation, the Jags are No. 29 in coverage grade (per Pro Football Focus), and they are specifically No. 30 in pass defense DVOA against tight ends. I expect that No. 1 wide receiver Tyrell Williams will see shadow coverage from cornerback A.J. Bouye, so Derek Carr might be incentivized to funnel a few more targets than usual in Waller’s direction.
In a 45-10 blowout loss to the Chargers last week, the Jags gave up 20.3 DraftKings points to tight ends Hunter Henry and Virgil Green.
The four tight ends most comparable to Waller in pricing, athleticism and role to face the Jags — Travis Kelce, Delanie Walker, Jared Cook and Hunter Henry — have averaged 10.6 FanDuel points per game against them, and they have provided value with their +2.43 Plus/Minus.
Waller is the unanimous No. 1 tight end in our Pro Models for FanDuel, where he has position-high marks with a +3.76 Projected Plus/Minus and 10 Pro Trends. He’s also the top option in the Levitan Model for DraftKings.
Irv Smith Jr.: Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) at Los Angeles Chargers, 45.5 O/U
I have only myself to blame — it’s the Freedman Model for DraftKings that has Smith as the top tight end.
I don’t recommend Smith in cash games, but he’s mildly intriguing for guaranteed prize pools: He’s priced as the No. 26 tight end on DraftKings, which is far too low for a player with his talent and playing time, and he’s likely to have a sub-1% ownership rate in large-field tournaments.
Although he’s just a rookie and the No. 2 tight end on the team that ranks No. 30 with a 50.9% pass play rate, Smith has been no worse than a fantasy TE2 in six of 13 games.
The Vikings are using a two-tight end set as their base formation, so Smith has had a snap rate of more than 70% in each of the past four games.
Smith is yet to have more than 60 yards receiving in any game, and he has just one touchdown this year, but as I noted in my 2019 rookie dynasty rankings, he’s an incredibly talented player with great long-term potential as a 21-year-old rookie. As a general practice, it’s probably never too early to make small strategic investments in upside assets, and Smith could be a star.
His matchup is not great. All-Pro strong safety Derwin James returned from injury in Week 13, and in his two games back, he’s been his usual lockdown self, allowing just one yard on two targets combined. Last year, with James playing a full season, the Chargers were No. 1 in pass defense DVOA against tight ends.
But there’s a chance that the presence of James on the field could work to Smith’s advantage. James seems likely to defend No. 1 tight end Kyle Rudolph, who has a team-high six touchdowns receiving and is a notable red-zone weapon. And if James is on Rudolph, then Kirk Cousins could redirect targets that would have gone to Rudolph to Smith, who will likely be matched up with linebackers or a dime back for most of the game.
What are Smith’s odds of having a low-end fantasy TE1 game? They’re not high, but they’re significantly higher than his almost nonexistent projected ownership rate.
Anthony Firkser: Tennessee Titans (-3) vs. Houston Texans, 51.5 O/U
Irv Smith Jr. and Firkser in the same article? What atrocities did you commit against the fantasy gawds to warrant such punishment?
The investment thesis for Firkser is straightforward.
He’s cheap: He provides great roster flexibility.
He’s going to differentiate lineups. Last week, he had a Millionaire Maker ownership rate of just 0.11%. On top of that, he was stacked with quarterback Ryan Tannehill in just 0.02% of Millionaire Maker lineups.
The Titans-Texans game has a slate-high 51.5-point over/under, so it could turn into a shootout, and if enough fantasy points are scored, some of them could trickle down to ancillary players like Firkser.
No. 1 tight end Delanie Walker (ankle, IR) suffered a season-ending injury in Week 7, and since Week 8, Firkser has played as the No. 2 tight end behind new starter Jonnu Smith. In that span, Firkser has had a respectable 32% snap rate and 10% target share and has been no worse than a fantasy TE2 in two of six games.
Sure, Firkser easily has a zero-point performance within his range of outcomes, but as Hyman Roth puts it, “This is the business we chose.”
The Texans are No. 24 in pass defense DVOA against tight ends, and in Week 12 against the Texans last year, Firkser had a 4-52-0 receiving line on four targets.
If you play in mass multi-entry tournaments and don’t use at least one Tanny-Firkser lineup, you’re not allowing yourself the thrill of watching money burn.
Firkser is the No. 1 tight end in the Koerner and SportsGeek Models for DraftKings, where he has an elite 97% Bargain Rating.
Upside Tight Ends for Guaranteed Prize Pools
Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs ($6,500 DK, $7,300 FD): Easily No. 1 at the position with 103.5 air yards and yards after the catch per game and No. 2 with 12.7 FanDuel points per game, Kelce is still Zeus on the mountain top. Kelce has position-high marks with his median and ceiling projections in our Models, and he’s the No. 1 tight end in our Week 15 fantasy football rankings.
Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles ($6,000 DK, $6,700 FD): No. 1 wide receiver Alshon Jeffery (foot, IR) is out, and No. 2 wide receiver Nelson Agholor (knee) is uncertain to play. In the Agholor-less and mostly Alshon-less Weeks 12 and 14, Ertz averaged 28.6 DraftKings points with 91 yards and 1.5 touchdowns on 13.5 targets and 10.5 receptions per game. Ertz has a position-high floor projection on DraftKings and is projected to be the slate’s most popular tight end.
Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Philadelphia Eagles tight end Zach Ertz (86)
Hunter Henry, Los Angeles Chargers ($5,200 DK, $6,400 FD): With just seven targets over the past two weeks, Henry is in something of a slump, but he still scored a touchdown last week and is No. 3 at the position with 89.8 air yards and yards after the catch and No. 5 with 11.2 FanDuel points per game. The Vikings are No. 1 in pass defense DVOA against tight ends, but Henry will have a single-digit ownership rate.
Austin Hooper, Atlanta Falcons ($5,000 DK, $6,200 FD): Hooper had his worst fantasy performance of the season last week with just 32 scoreless-yards in his return from a knee injury, and now he faces the 49ers, who have held tight ends to the third-fewest FanDuel points per game with 7.5. But No. 2 wide receiver Calvin Ridley (abdomen, IR) is out, so Hooper could see extra targets, and last week the 49ers allowed a 2-68-3 receiving onslaught on five targets without strong safety Jaquiski Tartt (ribs), who is yet to practice this week and seems unlikely to play.
Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles ($4,300 DK, $5,700 FD): Jeffery and Agholor are both injured, so the Eagles will likely rely on two-tight end sets. A top-tier prospect who probably should have been a first-round pick, Goedert is coming into his own in his second season. Since Week 6, Goedert has averaged 10.8 DraftKings points on 6.1 targets per game with six fantasy TE1 finishes. The Redskins are No. 31 in pass defense DVOA against tight ends.
David Njoku, Cleveland Browns ($4,200 DK, $5,500 FD): Njoku played just 20 snaps last week in his return from a wrist injury, but he might get a full complement of snaps this week, and in his one full game this season, he was 4-37-1 receiving on six targets. The Cardinals have allowed a league-high 20.3 DraftKings points, 956 yards and 13 touchdowns to tight ends and are No. 32 in pass defense DVOA against the position.
Noah Fant, Denver Broncos ($4,100 DK, $5,700 FD): Last week, Fant (foot) put up a slate-best 4-113-1 receiving before leaving the game early with an injury, but he returned to practice on Thursday and seems likely to play. In his six games since the team traded wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders, Fant has averaged 5.8 targets and been no worse than a fantasy TE2 in all but one game. The Chiefs have allowed the fifth-most DraftKings points to tight ends with 15.0 per game.
Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins ($4,000 DK, $5,200 FD): Since Ryan Fitzpatrick returned to the starting lineup in Week 7, Gesicki has averaged 5.5 targets per game and racked up three fantasy TE1 games. Wide receivers DeVante Parker (concussion) and Albert Wilson (concussion) are both in the league’s concussion protocol and are uncertain to play, so Gesicki could be slated for a target increase. The Giants are without starting strong safety Jabrill Peppers (back, IR), and in their first game without him last week, they yielded a 12-132-2 receiving line on 19 targets to Ertz and Goedert.
Pictured: Miami Dolphins tight end Mike Gesicki (88), Photo Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams ($3,900 DK, $5,700 FD): Over the past two weeks, Higbee has amassed a 14-223-1 receiving line on 19 targets in the absence of former No. 1 tight end Gerald Everett (knee), who hasn’t returned to practice and seems unlikely to play. The Cowboys are No. 29 in pass defense DVOA against tight ends.
Kaden Smith, New York Giants ($3,600 DK, $4,700 FD): Starter Evan Engram (foot) and backup Rhett Ellison (concussion) are out, so Smith will once again play with the first-team offense. In his three games filling in for Engram and Ellison, Smith has two fantasy TE1 performances and has averaged 6.3 targets per game.
O.J. Howard, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($3,500 DK, $5,700 FD): No. 1 wide receiver Mike Evans (hamstring) left Week 14 early with an injury and is almost certain not to play. With a 9-134-0 receiving line over the past two weeks, Howard seems to be back in the head coach Bruce Arians’ good graces, and without Evans, he could see extra targets. The Lions are No. 26 in pass defense DVOA against tight ends and have allowed the second-most air yards and yards after the catch to opposing teams with 474.8 per game.
Jonnu Smith, Tennessee Titans ($3,500 DK, $4,900 FD): Since starter Delanie Walker (ankle, IR) suffered a season-ending injury in Week 7, Smith has two fantasy TE1 games. He’s likely to have a sub-1% ownership rate, but the Texans are No. 24 in pass defense DVOA against tight ends, and in Week 12 against the Texans last year, Smith had a 2-63-1 receiving performance.
Ian Thomas, Carolina Panthers ($3,100 DK, $5,300 FD): Thomas was a legitimate option for cash games and tournaments last week, and he’s once again this week. Filling in for starter Greg Olsen (concussion), Thomas went 5-57-1 receiving on 10 targets and an 86% snap rate in Week 14, and he’s slated for full-time work again with Olsen out. The Seahawks have allowed the second-most DraftKings points to the position with 16.8 per game.
Nick O’Leary, Jacksonville Jaguars ($3,100 DK, $5,300 FD): O’Leary will have almost no ownership because he’s priced exactly the same as Ian Thomas, but in his three weeks as the No. 1 tight end for the Jags, he’s had two low-end fantasy TE1 games, and the Raiders had allowed the third-most FanDuel points to tight ends with 12.5 per game.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
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Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
