Matthew Freedman publishes comprehensive positional breakdowns for the main NFL DFS slate throughout each week.
We’ll highlight one of the top players from each position (according to our Models) and his analysis of their outlooks below, but be sure to check out the full versions of each breakdown for the best cash-game and GPP plays for Week 12.
QB Breakdown
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons
I love Ryan this week. He’s the No. 10 fantasy quarterback with 20.1 FanDuel points per game, and even though he missed Week 8, he’s still well on his way to a ninth consecutive 4,000-yard passing campaign.
The Falcons are No. 1 in the league with a 67.7% pass play rate. Ryan is likely to get his attempts. Since his 2016 MVP campaign, Ryan leads the league with 16,626 yards passing.
Most importantly, the matchup is delicious. The Bucs have allowed quarterbacks to average 23.7 FanDuel points and opposing teams to average 480.5 air yards and yards after catch combined per game — both of which are the second-highest marks in the league (per AirYards.com).
>> Read the full QB breakdown here
RB Breakdown
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
Kamara has had an up-and-down campaign. He has just two touchdowns on the season, and he missed Weeks 7-8 to injury. He hasn’t been at the top of one of our Models since Week 2. Despite consistently having one of the highest backfield salaries in each slate, he’s just the No. 9 fantasy running back in points scored.
His year-over-year production has undoubtedly been a disappointment (per our FantasyLabs Trends Tool).
- 2018 (17 games): 20.2 FanDuel points, +5.20 Plus/Minus, 64.7% Consistency Rating
- 2019 (eight games): 15.3 FanDuel points, +1.16 Plus/Minus, 37.5% Consistency Rating
Given how expensive he typically is, Kamara has significantly underperformed his salary-based expectations.
>> Read the full RB breakdown here
WR Breakdown
Alshon Jeffery, Philadelphia Eagles
Jeffery (ankle) missed Week 11, but he has practiced this week (albeit on a limited basis) and is tentatively expected to play. Be sure to monitor his injury status over the weekend.
Full disclosure: I’m not that into Alshon. I tend to think of him as a low-upside player at this stage of his career. But I get why he’s popping in our Models.
First, he has limited competition for targets. DeSean Jackson (abdomen, IR) is out for the year, and Nelson Agholor (knee) missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday and is legitimately questionable for this weekend. If Agholor is out, Jeffery could have double-digit targets.
Also, he’s cheap.
>> Read the full WR breakdown here
TE Breakdown
Vance McDonald, Pittsburgh Steelers
The thesis for investing in McDonald is pretty straightforward.
He’s relatively cheap on DraftKings at $3,500, so he provides roster flexibility. He also offers value: He has the No. 12 salary at the position but the No. 6 median and ceiling projections. And he’s likely to have a sub-5% ownership rate in tournaments, so he can help to differentiate lineups.
>> Read the full TE breakdown here
