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MLB DFS 4/28/16 Slate Breakdown

Let’s do this.

Vegas

 

Pitchers

Jake Arrieta, CHC 

For all the reasons he was considered the cash play yesterday, tonight makes no difference. After all, it’s still only the fifth time in the last year in which a pitcher has been favored by -330 or greater. Go figure that Clayton Kershaw historically produced a Plus/Minus of +4.19 in those previous four instances. Set to oppose a Brewers offense with a top-four K% vs. RHP this season, it should come as no shock that Arrieta, who additionally includes 11 Pro Trends, is yet again considered the top cash option at his position.

Tanner Roark, WSH

Many will recall Roark’s 15 K’s from his last performance and roster him if only hoping for the same thing. With the Phillies’ projected SO/AB considered the highest of the day, it’s not too far-fetched of an idea. His exit velocity over his last two starts is also equivalent to Arrieta’s. In other words, if not paying up for the latter, Roark can easily be looked at as the second-best cash option tonight.

Kenta Maeda, LAD 

Miami’s projected wOBA qualifies as the second highest tonight, but even stronger offenses have yet to affect Maeda this season. His batted-ball distance of 173 feet allowed, for instance, is actually six feet shorter than what Arrieta has allowed over the last year. Although he’s only slightly favored (-121), it bodes well that Maeda is still seeing 72% of moneyline bets (despite opposing Jose Fernandez).

Pitchers to Exploit

Anibal Sanchez, DET

Sanchez’s HR/9 rate is the highest allowed of the evening. Considering he has yet to make it out of the fifth inning, an Oakland stack littered with bats from both sides of the plate is warranted.

Tanner Roark, WSH

Yes, Roark is considered a strong cash option. But, given the smaller slate, it only makes sense to target him (in tournaments) and hope he produces a total closer to his prior three performances:


 

That means Odubel Herrera, Maikel Franco, and Ryan Howard — all whom have a positive wOBA Differential vs. RHP — are viable if approaching the slate with a contrarian mindset tonight.

C

Stephen Vogt, OAK

As previously mentioned, Sanchez’s HR/9 rate is the highest allowed in this slate. With the third-highest batted-ball distance among those with at least 10 starts behind the plate, Vogt can easily be looked at in cash and tournaments alike.

Welington Castillo, ARI

Consistent options are hard to come by if playing either four-game slate today, which makes Castillo’s value at DraftKings (94% Bargain Rating) a sheer must in the main. His batted-ball velocity is also tied for the fastest among catchers.

1B

David Ortiz, BOS 

It’s obviously easy to suggest someone the day after they go 3-for-5 with three doubles from the plate, but Ortiz’s positive wOBA and ISO Differentials make him a strong option no matter. With a Bargain Rating of 93% at DraftKings, Ortiz — batting in the heart of a lineup projected to score the most runs tonight — is once again as viable a cash option as any.

Sean Rodriguez, PIT

I swear to everything holy, I fully intend on writing about Rodriguez until the Pirates finally put him back in their starting lineup. (Actually, I probably wouldn’t write about him if this weren’t a smaller slate, but he’s worth pointing out in this particular case.) His batted-ball distance, after all, remains further than any other first baseman (where he qualifies at DraftKings). Given his Bargain Rating of 97% there, he’s an obvious cash option if playing (although, yeah, he probably won’t).

2B

Chris Coghlan, OAK 

Even in batting seventh this afternoon, Coghlan is slotted only one spot behind Mark Canha (we’ll get there) in Oakland’s batting order. He can (and should) be stacked at FanDuel, where his salary remains $400 cheaper.

Jedd Gyorko, STL

I’m on the Gyorko bandwagon tonight, if only for his exit velocity of 95 mph (highest among second basemen over the last 15 days). If once again batting sixth for St. Louis, note his slugging percentage of .442 vs. RHP, which is top three at his position tonight.

3B

Matt Carpenter, STL

Carpenter’s batted-ball distance over the last 15 days is further than any other third baseman. As long as he’s leading off for the Cardinals (projected to score 4.7 runs), he’s arguably the strongest option at his position.

SS

Freddy Galvis, PHI 

It’s not unreasonable to think Galvis shouldn’t be hitting second for Philadelphia (let alone any team), but as long as he is, his top-five batted-ball distance among shortstops is considered a piece of the aforementioned contrarian stack vs. Roark.

OF

Mark Canha, OAK

Although slotted at sixth in their lineup, note Canha’s wOBA and ISO Differentials of .093/.118. I would actually consider it a stronger option to end an Athletics stack with him, rather than start it from the top with Billy Burns (who has negative Differentials vs. RHP).

Josh Reddick, OAK

Batting third for Oakland, Reddick’s produced a top-five line-drive percentage over the last 15 days. With a positive wOBA Differential of .071, he’s viable in every format.

Mark Trumbo, BAL

Set to oppose a lefty, Trumbo, who has a .584 slugging percentage against said handedness, should easily be able to exploit John Danks’ 1.22 HR/9.

Weather Watch

Rain is expected to interrupt Athletics-Tigers at first pitch, but it shouldn’t be too serious. Hitters for both sides are even more viable given the weather (although their pitchers should be avoided at all costs).

Good luck!

Let’s do this.

Vegas

 

Pitchers

Jake Arrieta, CHC 

For all the reasons he was considered the cash play yesterday, tonight makes no difference. After all, it’s still only the fifth time in the last year in which a pitcher has been favored by -330 or greater. Go figure that Clayton Kershaw historically produced a Plus/Minus of +4.19 in those previous four instances. Set to oppose a Brewers offense with a top-four K% vs. RHP this season, it should come as no shock that Arrieta, who additionally includes 11 Pro Trends, is yet again considered the top cash option at his position.

Tanner Roark, WSH

Many will recall Roark’s 15 K’s from his last performance and roster him if only hoping for the same thing. With the Phillies’ projected SO/AB considered the highest of the day, it’s not too far-fetched of an idea. His exit velocity over his last two starts is also equivalent to Arrieta’s. In other words, if not paying up for the latter, Roark can easily be looked at as the second-best cash option tonight.

Kenta Maeda, LAD 

Miami’s projected wOBA qualifies as the second highest tonight, but even stronger offenses have yet to affect Maeda this season. His batted-ball distance of 173 feet allowed, for instance, is actually six feet shorter than what Arrieta has allowed over the last year. Although he’s only slightly favored (-121), it bodes well that Maeda is still seeing 72% of moneyline bets (despite opposing Jose Fernandez).

Pitchers to Exploit

Anibal Sanchez, DET

Sanchez’s HR/9 rate is the highest allowed of the evening. Considering he has yet to make it out of the fifth inning, an Oakland stack littered with bats from both sides of the plate is warranted.

Tanner Roark, WSH

Yes, Roark is considered a strong cash option. But, given the smaller slate, it only makes sense to target him (in tournaments) and hope he produces a total closer to his prior three performances:


 

That means Odubel Herrera, Maikel Franco, and Ryan Howard — all whom have a positive wOBA Differential vs. RHP — are viable if approaching the slate with a contrarian mindset tonight.

C

Stephen Vogt, OAK

As previously mentioned, Sanchez’s HR/9 rate is the highest allowed in this slate. With the third-highest batted-ball distance among those with at least 10 starts behind the plate, Vogt can easily be looked at in cash and tournaments alike.

Welington Castillo, ARI

Consistent options are hard to come by if playing either four-game slate today, which makes Castillo’s value at DraftKings (94% Bargain Rating) a sheer must in the main. His batted-ball velocity is also tied for the fastest among catchers.

1B

David Ortiz, BOS 

It’s obviously easy to suggest someone the day after they go 3-for-5 with three doubles from the plate, but Ortiz’s positive wOBA and ISO Differentials make him a strong option no matter. With a Bargain Rating of 93% at DraftKings, Ortiz — batting in the heart of a lineup projected to score the most runs tonight — is once again as viable a cash option as any.

Sean Rodriguez, PIT

I swear to everything holy, I fully intend on writing about Rodriguez until the Pirates finally put him back in their starting lineup. (Actually, I probably wouldn’t write about him if this weren’t a smaller slate, but he’s worth pointing out in this particular case.) His batted-ball distance, after all, remains further than any other first baseman (where he qualifies at DraftKings). Given his Bargain Rating of 97% there, he’s an obvious cash option if playing (although, yeah, he probably won’t).

2B

Chris Coghlan, OAK 

Even in batting seventh this afternoon, Coghlan is slotted only one spot behind Mark Canha (we’ll get there) in Oakland’s batting order. He can (and should) be stacked at FanDuel, where his salary remains $400 cheaper.

Jedd Gyorko, STL

I’m on the Gyorko bandwagon tonight, if only for his exit velocity of 95 mph (highest among second basemen over the last 15 days). If once again batting sixth for St. Louis, note his slugging percentage of .442 vs. RHP, which is top three at his position tonight.

3B

Matt Carpenter, STL

Carpenter’s batted-ball distance over the last 15 days is further than any other third baseman. As long as he’s leading off for the Cardinals (projected to score 4.7 runs), he’s arguably the strongest option at his position.

SS

Freddy Galvis, PHI 

It’s not unreasonable to think Galvis shouldn’t be hitting second for Philadelphia (let alone any team), but as long as he is, his top-five batted-ball distance among shortstops is considered a piece of the aforementioned contrarian stack vs. Roark.

OF

Mark Canha, OAK

Although slotted at sixth in their lineup, note Canha’s wOBA and ISO Differentials of .093/.118. I would actually consider it a stronger option to end an Athletics stack with him, rather than start it from the top with Billy Burns (who has negative Differentials vs. RHP).

Josh Reddick, OAK

Batting third for Oakland, Reddick’s produced a top-five line-drive percentage over the last 15 days. With a positive wOBA Differential of .071, he’s viable in every format.

Mark Trumbo, BAL

Set to oppose a lefty, Trumbo, who has a .584 slugging percentage against said handedness, should easily be able to exploit John Danks’ 1.22 HR/9.

Weather Watch

Rain is expected to interrupt Athletics-Tigers at first pitch, but it shouldn’t be too serious. Hitters for both sides are even more viable given the weather (although their pitchers should be avoided at all costs).

Good luck!