The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a nine-game main slate starting at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook was impressive in his debut for the Houston Rockets, scoring 62.0 DraftKings points vs. a really good Bucks’ defense. He actually posted a slightly higher usage rate than Harden in that contest (29.8% vs. 28.9%), and he also piled up the peripheral statistics. Overall, Westbrook finished with an average of 1.89 DraftKings points per minute, which was higher than his average from his final season with the Thunder. I don’t want to overreact to just one contest, but it’s possible that his move to the Rockets won’t be a deterrent to his fantasy value.
With that in mind, he looks like an amazing value at just $9,100 on DraftKings. It results in a Bargain Rating of 95%, and Westbrook has only been priced below $9,500 in two other occurrences in our Trends database. He also has a strong matchup vs. the Pelicans given his opponent Plus/Minus of +4.34.
Value
Patrick Beverley has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his first two contests this season, and he’s one of the better values on FanDuel at just $5,100. He has the ability to score fantasy points in a variety of ways — he had 10 rebounds in his first outing and five steals in his second — resulting in an average of 0.86 FanDuel points per minute.
Fast Break
Kemba Walker is a prime candidate for some positive regression today. He’s struggled to score the ball so far this season, shooting just 12-of-40 from the field, but his usage rate of 27.5% ranks second on the team. He should have a much easier time today vs. the New York Knicks, who figure to be one of the worst defensive teams in basketball this season. The Celtics’ current implied team total of 111.5 ranks sixth on the slate.
Dejounte Murray showed no signs of rust in his first game this season after missing all of last year with a knee injury. He dropped 41.5 DraftKings points on the Knicks in just 23.8 minutes (1.74 DraftKings points per minute). He has another strong matchup today vs. the Wizards, and his $5,700 salary on DraftKings results in a Bargain Rating of 87%. Murray could be a tournament winner if he sees a few additional minutes in this matchup.
Shooting Guard
Stud
It’s pretty clear that James Harden is not going to be able to duplicate his fantasy numbers from last season. Westbrook is just too large of a presence for Harden to post another usage rate of greater than 40%.
That said, he’s still going to be really freaking good. He managed to score 51.25 DraftKings points in his first game this season despite making just two shots from the field. Two! I would’ve said that was impossible if he didn’t just do it. Harden should definitely see some positive regression in that category moving forward, and he should remain an elite contributor in terms of assists and rebounds.
He is way too cheap on DraftKings, where his $10,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. Stacking is not something we usually think about in NBA DFS, but it seems like a viable option with Westbrook and Harden today. The Rockets are currently implied for a slate-best 124.25 points, and those two players should rack up the majority of the team’s value.
Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: James Harden
Value
The biggest injury news of the day comes from the Philadelphia 76ers. Joel Embiid has been ruled out with an ankle injury, which is going to open up a ton of value with the rest of their roster. He’s posted a usage rate of at least 31.0% in every season of his career.
Josh Richardson stands out at just $4,900 on DraftKings. He was very successful in his team debut, averaging 0.98 DraftKings points per minute, and he could see a bump in usage and playing time in this contest. His 12 Pro Trends are tied with Harden for the most at the position on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Jaylen Brown was limited to just 20.9 minutes in his first game of the season due to foul trouble, which made him a prime buy-low candidate yesterday. He did not disappoint in his second game, racking up 46.8 FanDuel points over 38 minutes vs. the Toronto Raptors. The Celtics are on the second-leg of a back-to-back, which actually works as a positive for Brown today. The DFS sites did not have the opportunity to price him up after his big contest, so he remains one of the better values across the industry.
Terrence Ross played just 19.5 minutes in his first game this season, but he posted a usage rate of 32.2% when he was on the court. He’s currently projected for 26.2 minutes in our NBA Models, which gives him plenty of upside at his current salary. He also has a nice matchup vs. the Hawks, who played at the fastest pace in the NBA last season.
Small Forward
Stud
The LA Clippers are 2-0 to start the season, and their wins have come in comfortable fashion at home vs. the Lakers and on the road vs. the Warriors. Kawhi Leonard hasn’t been asked to play a ton of minutes in those contests, but he’s been a fantasy monster when he’s been on the court. He’s posted a usage rate of greater than 40% in each game, resulting in an average of 1.65 DraftKings points per minute.
The Clippers will likely continue to monitor his minutes, but it seems pretty clear that he’s going to carry a larger offensive load than he has at any other point during his career. That gives him huge upside on a nightly basis.
Value
Brown is not the only member of the Celtics who stands out as a value today. Gordon Hayward and Jayson Tatum also seem underpriced, particularly on DraftKings where each has a Bargain Rating of at least 90%. Tatum currently leads the team in usage rate, while Hayward is capable of filling the stat sheet in a variety of ways.
Fast Break
Tobias Harris is an interesting option with Embiid out of the lineup. He was one of the biggest beneficiaries of Embiid’s absences last season, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.7 on DraftKings in 13 games without his star teammate.
Jrue Holiday will join Zion Williamson on the sidelines today for the Pelicans, which leaves them pretty shorthanded for their matchup vs. the Rockets. Brandon Ingram stands out as someone who should benefit. He currently leads the starting unit with a usage rate of 28.0%, and he’s averaged a stout 1.32 DraftKings points per minute. He’s scored at least 42.5 DraftKings points in each of his first two games, so his price tag across the industry seems reasonable.
Power Forward
Stud
Pascal Siakam is set up for a big season. He’s posted a usage rate of at least 35.7% in each of his first two games, and he’s scored at least 33 points in both contests. The result is an average of 1.52 DraftKings points per minute, which is up there with some of the best producers in the league.
He leads the position with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings in an enticing matchup vs. the Bulls. They currently rank 12th in pace and 24th in defensive efficiency, and both of those numbers could improve as the season progresses.
Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Toronto Raptors forward Pascal Siakam (43).
Value
Frank Kaminsky leads the position with 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel, and he’s coming off a big performance yesterday vs. the Denver Nuggets. He scored 31.7 FanDuel points in 32.7 minutes, and he should continue to play a big role for the Suns with Deandre Ayton suspended. Kaminsky has always been a solid producer on a per-minute basis, and his $4,200 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 83%.
Fast Break
Domantas Sabonis moved into the starting lineup for the Pacers this season, which could be one of the most important low-key fantasy moves of the year. Sabonis was fantastic last year, averaging 1.26 FanDuel points per minute, but an average of 24.8 minutes per game kept his fantasy value in check. He played 36 minutes in his first game this season, and he has the potential to be a fantasy superstar if he continues to see that much playing time.
LaMarcus Aldridge was pretty pedestrian in his first game of the season, scoring just 35.1 FanDuel points vs. the New York Knicks. The could result in him being under-owned today in an elite matchup vs. the Wizards. They were absolutely awful on the glass and defensively last season, and they don’t figure to be much better in either department this season.
Center
Stud
Andre Drummond is the most expensive center option across the industry, but his $9,500 salary on DraftKings is simply too cheap. It results in a Bargain Rating of 97%, and Drummond has posted an average Plus/Minus of +22.62 through his first two contests.
That production is obviously unsustainable, but he should continue to benefit from the absence of Blake Griffin. Drummond averaged 52.36 DraftKings points per game in seven contests without Griffin last season, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +6.9 on DraftKings.
His matchup today vs. the 76ers is an interesting one. Embiid being out of the lineup is definitely a positive for him, but it still sets up a difficult matchup vs. Al Horford. That said, Drummond did dominate the Celtics over the past three seasons, posting an average Plus/Minus of +7.59 on DraftKings, so he has clearly had some success vs. Horford in the past.
Value
Kyle O’Quinn is priced at the absolute minimum today on FanDuel, and he should see a solid handful of minutes with Embiid out of the lineup. O’Quinn has historically been one of the best producers in basketball on a per-minute basis, and he averaged 1.67 FanDuel points per minute in his first game this season. He’s an interesting punt play.
Fast Break
As usual, the center position is loaded with strong values on DraftKings. Rudy Gobert stands out as one of the best given his Bargain Rating of 97%, and he’s in an excellent spot vs. the Kings. They have been crushed by opposing centers to start the season, giving Gobert an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.85.
Pictured: Houston Rockets guards Russell Westbrook (0) & James Harden (13)
Photo credit: Erik Williams-USA Today Sports
