Matthew Freedman publishes comprehensive positional breakdowns for the main NFL DFS slate throughout each week.
We’ll highlight one of the top players from each position (according to our Models) and his analysis of their outlooks below, but be sure to check out the full versions of each breakdown for the best cash-game and GPP plays for Week 5.
QB Breakdown
Deshaun Watson: Houston Texans (-5) vs. Atlanta Falcons, 48.5 Over/Under
This year, Watson has been more hot-and-cold than a married couple’s broken shower. In Weeks 1 and 3, he crushed on the road as an underdog. In Weeks 2 and 4, he fell flat at home as a favorite.
- Week 1 (at Saints): 31.7 FanDuel points, 20-of-30 passing for 268 yards, three touchdowns, one interception, 4-40-1 rushing
- Week 2 (vs. Jaguars): 12.9 FanDuel points, 16-of-29 passing for 159 yards, 4-5-1 rushing
- Week 3 (at Chargers): 25.8 FanDuel points, 25-of-34 passing for 351 yards, three touchdowns, 7-18-0 rushing
- Week 4 (vs. Panthers): 11.6 FanDuel points, 21-of-33 passing for 160 yards, 3-12-1 rushing
This week, he is once again a home favorite. Does that mean we should fade him? H-E-L-L to the no.
>> Read the full QB breakdown here
RB Breakdown
Dalvin Cook: Minnesota Vikings (-5.5) at New York Giants, 44.5 Over/Under
Cook entered the season as a concern-laden player. But in his third NFL season, he has been forcefully fantastic.
He’s scored a touchdown in each game, thanks to his explosive play-making talent and goal-line usage. When he’s not breaking off a 75-yard touchdown run (Week 2), he’s getting scores from inside the 2-yard line (Weeks 3-4). Even last week, when the Vikings found themselves with a negative game script, Cook still had a decent fantasy day because of his pass-catching ability.
Now Cook is in something of a bounceback spot coming off his worst game of the year, and his matchup with the Giants is good.
>> Read the full RB breakdown here
WR Breakdown
DeAndre Hopkins: Houston Texans (-5) vs. Atlanta Falcons, 49 Over/Under
There’s no way to spin this: With the exception of his Week 1 onslaught on Monday Night Football, Hopkins has magnificently disappointed this year. He is yet to go off on the main slate, and Nuk investors are feeling the pain.
But let’s not get carried away by Nuk’s short-term production. If you peruse our Trends tool, you’ll see that only Antonio Brown has averaged more than Hopkins’ 21.0 DraftKings points per game since 2017, when Deshaun Watson joined the team. And in case you didn’t notice, Antonio isn’t on the main slate.
So we’re stuck with Nuk as probably the best receiver in football, and although his recent struggles aren’t ideal, they are at least explainable. He’s had tough matchups for three weeks in a row — no other receiver over the past three weeks has faced as hard of a one-on-one WR/CB matchup schedule.
But for Week 5, Hopkins has a good matchup.
>> Read the full WR breakdown here
TE Breakdown
Austin Hooper: Atlanta Falcons (+4.5) at Houston Texans, 49 Over/Under
Although I tend to think of Hooper as secondary in pass-catching priority to wide receiver Calvin Ridley and maybe even slot receiver Mohamed Sanu, I am almost certainly wrong: Hooper is top-two on the Falcons with 33 targets, 28 receptions, 307 yards receiving, 138 yards after the catch and two receiving touchdowns.
On four fewer targets, he actually has five more receptions and just 10 fewer yards than Julio. That’s outstanding. And to this point in the season, Hooper is straight-up outclassing Ridley and Sanu.
I’m still not expecting Hooper to finish the year with more fantasy production than Ridley, but his early-season success is notable, as is the fact that Hooper frequently has GPP ownership rates below 5%.
In general, the market has been far too low on Hooper.
>> Read the full TE breakdown here
